Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

42

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On November 22, 2008 at 11:55 am

The Elton Brand story — the extent to which it would be strange, or sad, or cathartic for Clips fans to see him as an ‘x’ instead of an ‘o’ on the court — got buried underneath the Randolph acquisition on Friday.  Before the fireworks, Clips Nation posted a nice meditation early Friday morning, writing “when I look at what I wrote back in July, I just don’t have that much more to say.  I still feel pretty much the same.”  Agreed.  What Steve Said.

It always surprises me how quickly the Kübler-Ross model is accelerated in sports.  Denial and Anger occur spectacularly — especially now that we have a 24-hour interactive platform for those stages.  It was certainly that way with Brand.  But in sports, there isn’t a lot of time for Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.  Even before the Randolph stuff started percolating yesterday morning, the Brand narrative had started to grow stale for most Clippers fans.  Yes, the respective versions of what or what didn’t transpired were revisited in the press, but they didn’t stoke much response or even much passing interest from the Naçion.  Maybe that was a product of the trade, or maybe it was because the first “reunion” was on safe ground for Brand in Philadelphia.  Either way, the story seemed almost like a manufactured event, even though its origin was quite real.

I’ll fess up:  I’ve been experiencing a little Eltonfreude watching the Sixers scuttle though the early part of their schedule.  I certainly don’t want to witness Brand fail miserably, and it would be tragic to see him lose his basic and most admirable traits as a player — effort, efficiency, precision.  But my irrational side feels that mediocrity in Philadelphia would be appropriate retribution for the way he departed Los Angeles.  There wouldn’t be any grand scandal in Philly, nor would the notorious Philadelphia fans turn their vicious scorn on Elton.  Instead, Brand’s career in Philadelphia would result in the exact same kind of anonymity he was saddled with as a Clipper.

That’s exactly what’s been happening back East, and it’s brought to the surface an important part of the Brand conversation that got lost in the tumult of July:

Is the 2008-2013 Elton Brand worth 5 years and $82 million?

We’ve always been aware that Elton’s torn Achilles might prevent him from returning to his 2005-06 glory, and that power forwards tend to atrophy more quickly as players than wing guys.  But most Clipper fans sublimated those fears in any discussion of Elton’s longterm worth to the franchise.  Sure, Elton might see his FGAs drop from the high-teens to the low-teens over the course of his new contract, but like any diligent aging ballplayer, he’d develop new tricks:  He’d expand that 15-footer out to 20 feet.  And even though his natural shooting stroke would make it difficult for him, maybe Elton could learn to shoot the 3PA like Charles Barkley!

None of that is happening for Elton in Philadelphia.  Know what he’s shooting from the field?  .428.  Know how many times a night he’s getting to the line?  4.4 FTAs/game.  He’s previous career low was 5.7 in 2002-03.  Prior to the injury, Elton never averaged fewer than three offensive rebounds per game.  This season, that number is 2.7.

But forget his stats.  We had a chance to see his game last night.  How does he look?

  • Dribble-Drive Jumper: [1st, 3:32] This is where Elton’s dropoff is most noticeable.  Miller gets the ball to Brand at the right elbow.  The Clippers go with single coverage against Elton with Marcus Camby.  EB recognizes he should be able to take Camby off the dribble and, given Marcus’  length, that’s probably the smartest course of action.  Elton dribbles with his right, then spins back left.  As Brand lands on both feet about 10 feet from the basket, he bends he knees to elevate for the jumper over Camby, but he just doesn’t have the same lift.  The shot misses.  At [2nd, 5:50], he has an easier matchup against Paul Davis.  The last drive started at the elbow, this one begins out on the right wing.  Elton back Paul in with his left shoulder.  But, again, Elton can’t quite get the same lift on his elevationas years’ past on his baseline jumper.  The shot is short.
  • Spotting Up at the Foul Line: [3rd, 11:16]  With Camby sagging, Brand spots up at the foul line where Miller finds him.  Wide open, Brand launches an uncontested jumper at the free throw line.  At [3rd, 8:58] Miller and Brand run a S/R that gets Elton the same exact shot — an uncontested jumper at the FT line.  As a side note in the Adventures in Marcus Camby Defending the S/R, Camby unwisely chooses to double Andre Miller on this set 18 feet away from the basket rather than stay on Brand.  Brand will not convert another FG from the floor until the game’s final minute.
  • Elbow Jumper: [1st, 11:25]  This is Elton’s home, a place where he’s probably drained 70% when uncontested over the course of his career.  With Camby sagging on an inbounds play underneath, Elton pops out to the left elbow.  Andre Iguodala finds him, but Elton misses.  At [1st, 6:05] he gets open at the right elbow when Camby doubles Miller off the screen and roll.  This time, Elton drains the shot.
  • Underneath:  Elton’s beastliness just isn’t the same in the scrum beneath the hoop.  Brand converts 1 FG off an offensive rebound, at [1st, 2:36].  When Marcus Camby moves over to help on a driving Andre Iguodala [not a bad decision here because Elton is way out on the left wing cut off from the play], Elton manages to sneak in along the baseline to be in position for the miss, which he lays back up and in.  Brand profits more from veteran intuition than his brute force.  At [2nd, 0:17], Brand gets his layup attempt blocked by Chris Kaman after getting position on the right block in a transition opportunity.  At [3rd, 2:29], Brand is working to get himself position down low against Camby.  He’s not making a lot of progress.  But the play shifts sides and Camby leaves EB on the weak side to help on a driving Iguodala.  Brand wisely makes a cut underneath.  Iguodala finds him on the right block.  Three seasons ago, Brand had the springs and strength to convert this play into a FGM.  Here, though, he can’t quite regain his footing on the block.  The Clipper bigs smother him.  EB never really gets a shot off, but works himself a trip to the line, where he sinks both shots.  There’s a similar possession at [4th, 7:44] where Brand is again trying to get himself some space on the weak side, while Thad Young controls the ball on the perimeter.  Brand can’t get anything against Brian Skinner, though.  Brand bobbles the pass, and gets bailed out by Skinner. He goes to the line where he makes 1 of 2.

You could argue that nothing about Brand’s 6-18 night matters except for the last 1-1 at [4th, 0:57] when Elton drains a right-handed jumper we’ve seen him make a million times from 15 feet on the left side.  What’s frustrating about this play is Camby.  He makes a great play to almost strip Iguodala of the ball, but once Iguodala recovers, Marcus sort of lingers in the paint rather than moving to cover Elton at the spot where EB ultimately nails the jumper.   Wide open, Elton demonstratively calls for the ball.  This time, the form is true.  Sixers by one.

Would love to hear your impressions of watching Elton in that vintage Sixers’ gear.

  1. epaminandis Said, Does Randolph debut tonight?

    Reply to epaminandis

    1. Kevin Arnovitz Said,

      Mobley, Thomas, Randolph, and Collins all have to pass physicals. So Randolph won’t be when the Clippers until they’re back in Los Angeles.

      Reply to Kevin Arnovitz

      Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm

  2. Best Ever? Said,

    Kevin wrote: “Is the 2008-2013 Elton Brand worth 5 years and $82 million?”

    NO WAY.

    Clippers dealt with BRAND by exercising reverse diplomacy. No damage. No harm. Enough said now.

    we are better-off now. Let’s wish Brand & Philly a good season as well.

    Chapter closed.

    Reply to Best Ever?

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 1:56 pm

  3. Imran Quidwai Said,

    brands offensive game doesnt look so good, but he had alot of block shots yesterday which were key because the offense is struggling, i would have like to seen somebody dunk it on him. how many close games is this team going to lose they should have beaten denver, sac, sas, phi, utah at least once, and maybe some others, the west isnt as good this year and they need to get their shit together

    Reply to Imran Quidwai

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 2:20 pm

  4. oasisman Said,

    Said to see that Randolph won’t be around tonite. Brand definitely is not worth such a large price tag…and having ZBO around means we can have 2 out of 3 of Camby, Kamen and himself on the floor at all times. Quite a lineup.

    In regards to the trade itself…we are now slightly weak at guard. Gordon will still have plenty of growing pains, Mardy Collins is defintely not the shooter Cat was and Ricky Davis has been horrible. Maybe we can let go find a sharpshooter like Luke Jackson in the D-leauge somewhere…we’ll see.

    Reply to oasisman

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 2:37 pm

  5. amize Said,

    I think this might instill some strength in R. Davis. He’s gotta realize that he has to step up and coach expects him to. We’ll see, but I think it could be a positive situation. Just played 2K9 with Randolph, man life is a breeze when you get to rotate Kaman, Camby and Randolph…

    Reply to amize

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm

  6. Stian Said,

    Elton Brand…….. had what turned out to be the game winning basket but was entirely mediocre otherwise as he’s been pretty much all season. Fact is: Brand is overpaid by about 20 mio. at this point and he’ll continue to be the least effective 20-10 player in the history of the NBA (well, his days of 20-10 seasons are now coming to an end slowly but surely). If - and that’s a big IF - the Sixers are going anywhere (beyond the first round in the playoffs) it’ll be because of guys like Young, Speights and Lou Williams stepping up, not Elton Brand.

    It’s too bad we lost last night - we had that game in the bag and then Baron, who is rubbing me the wrong way in all sorts of ways, gave it back to them with his careless, selfish play.

    Things can only get better for both Baron and the Clippers as a whole.

    Reply to Stian

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 4:27 pm

  7. Wade Said, You know what. I like to have a whipping boy. I relish hating a player. Fuck Elton Brand. We need to boo the crap out of him on New Years.

    Reply to Wade

    1. kirbs Said,

      And We will

      Reply to kirbs

      Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm

  8. kirbs Said,

    EB may be thinking that his 76′ers are not that good, if they can only fall over the line at home by 1 point against a Cat & TT less Clippers, who lost the game, 76′ers didn’t win it.

    Reply to kirbs

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 5:17 pm

  9. Section 113 Said,

    I’ve always maintained that EB was a very good player, not a superstar like most were trying to make him out to be. But in discussing whether he was worth the $82M, is trying to shift the discussion to the price tag, which wasn’t the debate. He wanted out, plain and simple and he screwed the Clips. Will they be better in the long run? Probably, but building a team is difficult when you get ZERO for your prime asset. Signing and then trading him would have been more fruitful.

    As for the trade, hysterical, Coach DUNCEleavy emphasizes defense, so what does GM DUNCEleavy do, he goes and gets him a player allergic to the term. Then he goes and spouts how this 3 big man rotation is going to be great…hey moron Coach, we’re not that stupid, there are still only 96 minutes at the two slots they man. Now let’s see how much they screw up trading Kaman.

    My season tickets in SEction 113 are still available at 20% off.

    Reply to Section 113

    Posted on November 22nd, 2008 at 6:22 pm


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