If you want to do some scouting on the Spurs today, you should head over to 48 Minutes of Hell, the dynamite Spurs blog run by Graydon Gordian and Timothy Varner. How good is 48MoH? Their powers of persuasion are almost enough to make you appreciate Bruce Bowen. Prior to Spurs games, 48MoH likes to catch up with bloggers from opposing teams in a Q & A format. I’m their guinea pig today, and you can find my dialogue with Graydon here.
One of the reasons I like doing Q & As with other bloggers is that it forces me to observe the Clippers from 30,000 feet. When you watch every second of every game, there’s a tendency to absorb yourself with the minutiae — whether Marcus Camby adequately defends the S/R, who’s missing perimeter rotations, whether Baron Davis is a better shooter off the dribble or in a catch-and-shoot sequence. Because the NBA schedule is packed so tightly, a blogger often falls into the trap of pouring everything into recaps. The unintentional result is that weeks go by, sometimes months, between close examinations of the big, meta questions facing a team.
Graydon posed three questions, the last of which was this:
GG: During the 05-06 season, I thought the Clippers were well on their way to building a team that would be a perennial playoff presence. After an impressive postseason run that year, what went wrong? What moves (roster, coaching, front office) are necessary to get this team back on track?
KA: Elton got hurt; Cassell and Mobley got older; Kaman improved, but not enough. To get back to respectability, the Clippers need able bodies first and foremost. A healthy Baron Davis and an emerging Eric Gordon are nice anchors in the backcourt. With Randolph, Marcus Camby, and Kaman, they’re more than spoken for on the block. What the Clippers need to get back to 45-50 wins is a 3 who can facilitate and pass. Thornton is a bit of a black hole. A 3 out of the Odom, Battier, Turkoglu mold — even a Luke Walton or Nicolas Batum — would serve them well.
“What moves (roster, coaching, front office) are necessary to get this team back on track?” Simple enough, but the question caught me off-guard, largely because our attention has been consumed in recent days with things like Cheikh Samb, who’s going to play point, and how a team profits from waiving guys they trade for.
I suspect that many in this forum would put “Fire Mike Dunleavy” as item number one on their list of things that are necessary to get the Clippers back on track. I’m not interested in going down that road. Why? However you feel about Dunleavy as a coach or general manager, he’s not going anywhere because it’s not in Donald Sterling’s constitution to pay people not to work. I’ve maintained an agnostic position on Dunleavy since he arrived, and that’s still where I am.
Once the Clippers are healthy again, they’ll desperately need some depth on the perimeter, but starters generally play 80% of minutes in this league, so any discussion about a team’s prospects for respectability has to begin and end with the guys who will take the lion’s share of those minutes. Baron Davis and Eric Gordon figure to preside over the backcourt for years to come. Some combination of Chris Kaman, Zach Randolph and Marcus Camby will hold down the block. Both Randolph and Kaman have long-term contracts with the Clippers. Marcus Camby will either finish out his contract with the team next spring or, just as likely, he’ll be dealt at some point in the next 14 months for a nice complimentary piece that can address the depth issue at the wings.
If you believe that Eric Gordon will be a complete player who solves the Clippers’ need at the 2, that Randolph in the post will challenge the defense, that a healthy Kaman is a solid presence at center, and that a healthy Baron Davis is, at the very least, serviceable, then this conversation quickly turns to Al Thornton.
Initially, I wasn’t one who believed that Thornton’s advanced age as a rookie meant that he’d be less likely to grow as an NBA player. But as we look at the first 113 games of Al’s career, I’m afraid that’s exactly where we are. Al’s numbers suggest a player with fixed abilities and shortcomings. His usage rate is roughly the same as last season. His true shooting percentage? Last season: 50.4. This season? 49.8. While his turnover rate has dipped slightly, so has the assist rate that ranks him dead last in the league among starting SFs.
Those are the numeric realities, but I think the larger question is how Al’s skill set comports with the Clippers’ needs. When you look around the league, you see that capable teams have one of a few varieties of small forwards: Teams like Cleveland, Boston, and Denver have high usage small forwards who are pure, complete scorers, who can do everything well [check out Carmelo Anthony's rebounding rate]. Teams like the Lakers, Orlando, Utah, and Detroit have smart facilitators who can pass, handle the ball, and use their length to defend. Teams like San Antonio and Houston have historically allocated the SF position to a defensive specialist who doesn’t need the ball, but can spot up if necessary.
It seems to me that if a starting wing player is not one of the two most efficient scorers on the floor, then you need him to create opportunities for others, or deny the opponent’s most potent perimeter threat similar opportunities. Al Thornton has little capacity or inclination to do either of these things.
In fact, the only skill where Thornton is measurably better than average is getting to the line — he’s 12th in the league among SFs in both FTA/game and FTM/game. His defense has improved from abysmal to below average and it’s unlikely that he’ll ever have the wherewithal to give the Clippers an edge against the league’s better perimeter scorers. In short, Al Thornton is Corey Maggette without the efficiency, and there’s nothing in his body of work on a nightly basis that offers much hope that he’ll cultivate the skills or instincts to become much more than that.
The Clippers exercised Thornton’s third-year contract option this past October at the very reasonable price of $1.9M. The organization’s next decision on Al will be his fourth-year option for the 2010-11 at $2.8M — again, not a bad deal for a guy of Thornton’s talent. The question Mike Dunleavy will face going forward is whether the Clippers aren’t better served by a more complete, less athletic small forward who can create opportunities for the guys on the floor who know how to score efficiently. The likely emergence of Eric Gordon at the other wing position makes that proposition all the more logical.
24 Responses
Thabo Sefolosha can be had for cheap, I’d guess.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Good Read Kevin. As a first time season ticket holder but die-hard NBA fan, I have really appreciated your in-depth analyses. Keep up the good work…
Quick question. Me and my co-ticket holder noticed that Al’s productivity skyrockets when he goes to the hole. The inverse is also true, his outside shot has been absolutely horrendous this season (less the last game). Do you have any numbers showing true shooting percentage when Big Al goes strong versus his outside jumper? I’m convinced he’s shooting 25% or less on the season from more than 4 feet away from the basket….
If you’re at a game and you hear a guy screaming in pain as Al shoots from outside that’s probably me.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Excellent post, KA. Agree 100%
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Great post, echoes what clippers have found out about AT. I guess he doesn’t take it to the hole b/c he has a tough time dribbling.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 10:54 am
very interesting post…i’m hesitant to say that Al isn’t extremely useful for this team, especially at his rookie contract price tag this year and next (and a 4th year looks reasonable as well). But i think the problem is more how the clippers have used him. It makes no sense to put him on the court with players like boom dizzle, z-bo and ej because all of those players thrive on getting alot of touches, which is something that thorton needs as well. Wouldn’t it be in the clippers best interest to get a facilitating 3 who plays great defense to have as a starter, and then have thorton provide some scoring punch for our horrendous second unit? Thorton, when motivated to attack the basket, is a very effective scorer who can pose major matchup problems for other teams because of his superior athleticism. I also disagree with the notion that he cannot improve, you are looking at his rookie numbers (in a season where he didn’t get run until the second half of the season, where he played as good as any rookie in the league) and this year where the team has had no rhythm due to new additions and injuries (the dunce’s ineptitude aside of course) and you come to the conclusion that he won’t get better. Thats not really fair, as the team becomes more cohesive he will improve, and if we ever get a coach who understands how to use his players then my guess is that thorton could thrive along with the rest of this team
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 11:45 am
i actually started a thread about this very same issue in another well known basketball discussion forum…..
your post echoes my frustration with al…..i came to the conclusion that al is just naturally stupid…..
his tendency to keep taking shots when he is having an off night…..his refusal to defer to teammates when his shot isn’t falling…..the more he misses, the further back he starts taking his ill advised jumpers…..
his inability to pass out of doubles, and just his general lack of skill in terms of passing…..his refusal to take the ball to the rack…..his lack of defensive skill, man or zone…..
all he is good for is volume shooting, and with such an efficient scorer/shooter in gordon, what’s al’s role now???
a move to the 6th man role would probably benefit him, and the team, but is he mature enough to accept that role??? given his lack of intelligence, i doubt it……
he has the hops to jump out of the gym, but what’s the point of having them if all he does is take 20ft jumpers all day???
it’s frustrating to watch the style of basketball al plays, given his skillset…
with his size, length and athleticism, i thought he could be a shawn marion type player for us……however, he plays more like ben gordon, with one exception: al has a shitty jumpshot…..
sorry for rambling…..i’m just frustrated…
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
I called this during the summer and suggested we trade Al (along with Kaman) while the going was good and perceived value was high. I also mentioned trading Mobley and Thomas because their contracts would be good for teams trying to get prepared for 2010. I got laughed at of course, told it was ridiculous that someone would want those contracts for the LeBron lottery. Its nice to see that ultimately I called the spade a spade.
Al would be a great 4 option in a run and gun offense. We shouldve pulled the trigger on the Josh Howard deal.
Still wishing we kept Elton and Corey. At least they were known factors and they had on court chemistry. Now all our assets, sans Gordon and Camby, have depreciated.
Wed be staring at a completely different record if we did everything in our power to keep Elton after signing B-Dizzle. But hey, no more tears over spilled milk.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Youre agnostic about Dunleavy? You dont know if he exists?
neiljphx Reply:
January 8th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
maybe that’s websters def. but i always viewed the practical meaning as ‘could give 2 shits about it’.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Imagine Baron Davis at 34, when his contract finally expires.
I agree about Thornton, but there’s no reason why he can’t develop into a scorer off the bench; a guy you can put in and if he catches fire, he gets minutes, if not, no harm done… Sort of a Ricky Davis type (oops).
Assuming Kaman and Randolf return and play to their expected level, and Dunleavy remains with his isolation offense, the thing the Clippers will need out of their 3 is great defense and a solid outside shooter with range… A bigger, better Q. Ross. He won’t have to do anything more than that, defend and hit the outside shot when the rock is kicked his way.
Thornton is only in his second year. He still has a lot of value and upside.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Its hard to think about trading Al since he still has tremendous potential. I agree that the team would be better suited with a defensive minded SF since we already have scorers but I really dont see why Al just doesnt improve on his defense. He more than has the tools to be great at it. At this point i wish he was at least average on defense. But for now, he should attack the basket rather then shoot that off balance turning fade away he always does. It kills me to see him do that knowing he can jump over people and score.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
I think Kevin is on to something here.
If you are going to watch the game today… pay attention to how many times Al Thornton actually passes the ball on offense once he gets the rock.
The percentage of NON-PASSING skyrockets when he actually takes his first dribble. It’s called “head-down basketball”.
Very frustrating to watch…. too many fadeaways. He’s a good finisher..take it to the hole Al!
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
If Al Thornton is a problem then who do they need to draft? Earl Clark or Al-Farouq Aminu? Do you think they need to trade Al Thornton or Baron Davis? Are they the ones not helping this team or the bench? What is their main problem?
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
PICK UP DARIUS MILES AND SHAUN LIVINGSTON!
I’d show up to at least one more game if that happened
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
I say that Thornton comes off the bench at the PF position and we start Mardy Collins at SF. Mardy has shown some of his passing abilities as of late against Detroit and Dallas, he can work on his shot and he plays some defense; he’d be like a poor man’s Bruce Bowen.
Also, with Thornton off the bench, our second unit looks pretty good along with Ricky Davis(if he finds his shot) and Marcus Camby when everybody gets their health back.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Al is a 4.
Duh.
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
I’ve been saying that al is the puzzle piece that doesnt fit for a while now. I obviously agree here. either he needs to be moved or we need to make him a back up and get someone in that can give us what we need at sf
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Defensive minded SF…hhhmmm…let me think…i thought we had one of those? No? Anyone? ah! QRoss maybe!?
Posted on January 8th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
“Teams like San Antonio and Houston have historically allocated the SF position to a defensive specialist who doesn’t need the ball, but can spot up if necessary.”
Q could not spot up for jumpers at all. He was a good defensive player, but he was such a liability on offense that teams didn’t even have to cover him.
Posted on January 9th, 2009 at 12:39 am
This was an excellent post by the way. It’s nice to know where you stand on Dunleavy, especially since it seems like every argument somehow comes back to him around here.
Al does seem like a poor man’s Maggette right now. The scary thing is that the parts of his game that are missing you can’t really “develop”. You can’t really develop court vision, like you could your jump shot for example.
There are guys who “feel” the court, and Al is not one of them.
I wish we could swing a trade for Gerald Wallace…he’d be perfect for this team.
Fargo Reply:
January 9th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Gerald Wallace!!! What a player. Seriously, what would it take to make that happen? How ’bout Kaman and Thornton for Wallace and Bell. Remember, it’s Michael Jordan the executive we’re talking about here.
Posted on January 9th, 2009 at 12:44 am
I think you guys might be underestimating Al’s talent if you’re talking about moving him to the bench. Is it possible that his natural position is really the PF spot? Maybe at the 4-spot he could suddenly turn into David West, average 20/8 with a high FG%, and then no one would really care about his puny assist average. He would have to bulk up a little more, but it could work.
Posted on January 9th, 2009 at 9:58 am
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