This is an exciting time for those trying to find new and compelling ways to understand basketball through analytical means. The sphere of advanced statistical analytics is experiencing a golden era, and I was fortunate enough to be at ground zero this past weekend — the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Some of the smartest people in the NBA world gathered in Cambridge to exchange ideas and pose larger questions about what we can — and in some cases, can’t — learn about the pro game from advanced data.
One of the things that continues to challenge people who work with this information is how to integrate individual data into a team game. If you’re a fan who grew up on Bill James Baseball Abstracts, then you have a fair understanding that baseball, at its essence, is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, which makes it much easier to illuminate many of these questions. You can rationally measure how many runs a lineup with nine Dustin Pedroias would generate in 162 games vs. a lineup of nine Hanley Ramirezes, but basketball is a much tougher proposition. You could, theoretically, compare the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of a team composed of five Chris Pauls vs. a team of five Yao Mings — and we have smart guys like Kevin Pelton on the case — but it wouldn’t produce results that are terribly useful in comparing the two players’ relative values. That’s because a direct statistical contrast between two individuals is a much trickier exercise in basketball.
Aside from determining how certain players are undervalued, what are some of the practical utilities for all this cool new data? One answer I heard repeatedly from the panelists and in conversations is applying this information to measure the performance of 5-man units. A couple of different stat guys told me that, for one, information about 5-man units can be imparted to coaches in a palatable way. An ornery coach might not want to hear from some data-cruncher that he needs to run fewer isolations sets for Player A out on the wing, but that same coach will likely be much more receptive to a few simple numbers that show he’s got a 5-man unit that’s killing the competition.
The Clippers are a tough nut to crack on a lot of this stuff because they haven’t been able to run consistent lineups out on the floor. The Clips have exactly one 5-man unit that’s shared the floor for more than 116 minutes this season: Baron-Gordon-Thornton-Randolph-Camby. That unit is a shade below average, with an adjusted +/- of -0.15, and an overall rating per 100 possessions of -2.17, which is a bit crummier.
Among the Clippers’ 5-man units that have played together for a measurable number of minutes, the best is Baron-Gordon-Collins-Randolph-Camby. In 84 possessions [about 46 minutes of basketball], this unit has outscored its opponents 98-72. Keep in mind that the standard error in such a small sample is pretty massive (Aaron Barzilai will tell you as much), and the majority of these data come from two games — the recent win over Boston and the December 12 Portland game. That being the case, these results support the notion that if you swap out Al Thornton for Mardy Collins on the wing, you get a substantially more efficient performance.
Naturally, the Clippers can’t capitalize on this information right now even if they wanted to, because Marcus Camby is suffering from head fluid, which sounds really unpleasant. But in thinking about how the Clippers might want to deal with LeBron James tonight, it’s hard to imagine throwing Al Thornton out there to guard him. I’m no fan of Mardy Collins’ inefficient offensive game. He displays a horrible habit of amplifying those inefficiencies by attempting far too many shots, a condition his coach needs to manage more vigilantly. That aside, the data show that on both an individual and team basis, Collins is considerably more useful than Al Thornton, who is the team’s least efficient regular, when placed alongside the Clippers’ other three primary scorers — Randolph, Gordon, and Baron Davis.
In some respects, this conversation evokes the debates of 2005-2006, when Corey Maggette and Quinton Ross were competing for playing time at the small forward position. Maggette was by every metric the more prolific offensive player, but there was enough data to suggest that the team played a more efficient game defensively when Ross was the SF alongside Cassell-Mobley-Brand-Kaman. The truth was that both Ross and Maggette had glaring deficiencies, but the ensuing discussion was one of the more interesting of its day for Clippers fans, with reasonable arguments on both sides.
Obviously, Thornton’s starting role hasn’t really been challenged by Collins, but in thinking about LeBron tonight…shouldn’t it be? If you had told me on Christmas Day that the matter of Collins v. Thornton would ever be a topic of earnest consideration, I would’ve eaten my hat, but among the dastardly number of issues that the Clippers are dealing with, the Al Thornton question stands out prominently. While I don’t support Al’s public humiliation by a tactless owner going off half-cocked, his role on the team needs to be examined more closely, particularly on a night when his team requires someone at the 3 who has some degree of defensive intuition. Again, Mardy Collins is not the long-term solution for the Clippers at the 3 — far from it — but most nights, he’s the better of two undesirable options.
17 Responses
those that read my comments know i’ve been one of the biggest al thorton apologists on here, and i’m a huge bill simmons fan…wanted to see what others thought of simmons comments on al in his latest podcast (about 57/58 minutes in http://sports.espn.go.com/stations/player?id=3965363)…he basically says that if the player isn’t one of your best 3 players, then you want him to do at least one thing really well (think novak as a three point specialist, or how q ross used to be on defense), and that al thorton will never really help this team because he doesn’t do anything that well (even scoring he isn’t efficent, he just shoots alot). i don’t really agree because i tend to like players that do alot of thinks well even if they aren’t elite at anything, and i especially appreciate athleticism, but whats more important is that the player doesn’t have glaring weaknesses for other teams to take advantage of (think jason kidd on defense this year, and how no matter what he does on offense its negated by the fact he is going to give up career highs to the player he is guarding every night). what say clippernation? al a waste of 30-35 min a night or an important contributor despite the fact he hasn’t quite put everything together yet?
bongstradamus Reply:
March 10th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I was for trading him over the offseason last year when his value was through the roof. I said he was a good player, but he wouldnt ever be an All-Star. This season has just confirmed that, and of course, hes slipped in value since I originally suggested it.
Then again i’ve been saying trade Kaman for 2 seasons now for some of the same reasons. Flashes of brilliance are just flashes. You dont even get into this league unless you show some flashes. Until its a 20/10 every night like Elton, its just a glimpse of the possible.
Until we demand excellence as a franchise, we’re going to be saddled with mediocrity. Players tend to lose the motivation to play at a higher level when their franchise continually scrapes the bottom of the standings. It doesnt help when your racist slumlord owner dresses you down either and basically declares the biggest loser on the team to be without sin and the second coming of Christ.
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 10:54 am
wow… you know the clippers are in bad shape when basketball analysts say that Mardy Collins should be starting over Al Thornton. How can such an athletic guy like Al be that bad of a defender? Makes no sense. Al doesnt have much together other than sheer athleticism and decent offensive awareness. he’s a cancer on defense and repeatedly makes the same mistakes in games.
Stian Reply:
March 10th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
How can such an athletic guy like Al be that bad of a defender?
How can such an athletic guy like Corey Maggette be that bad of a defender?
Very simple: Defense is all about effort, the willingness to buckle down, to do the dirty work. Sexy low basketball IQ scorers like Al or Corey are often not interested in exerting themselves on the other end. To them, it’s all about putting the ball in the basket (and look good doing it), not preventing the other guy from doing the same. That’s not part of their job description.
It’s sad but it’s no coincidence that offensively challenged guys like Bowen or Collins play far better D than guys like Maggette or Thornton that have all the physical tools to be lock down defenders. They have to play D in order to survive the league – guys like Maggette and Thornton can get away with crap D their whole careers because 20PPG scorers will always find work no matter what.
bongstradamus Reply:
March 10th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Corey really isnt a bad defender. He just has to want to play defense. Even Kevin mentioned in the thread of the last GS game that Corey locked down and bodied up Eric like a pro. We saw him lock up Kobe and Pierce as a Clipper before too. He just needs to be invested in the team and the last couple years he was too busy fighting some stupid political battle with Dumbleavy and it sapped his will to play. Corey’s offensive numbers always improved, he just slacked defensively because of the screaming douchebag on the bench who was swinging all his weight in the organization going behind the GM’s back and trying to bench or trade Corey away.
If you were at a job with a guy who constantly undermined you, disrespected you, lied to your face and stabbed people in the back, would you want to work with him?
Stian Reply:
March 11th, 2009 at 2:29 am
Corey still doesn’t play any better D and he is 500 miles away from Dunleavy. He was a pretty good defender early in his career but the more his PPG average went up the less he made the effort on the other end. And that will likely never change.
Section 113 Reply:
March 11th, 2009 at 12:39 am
STIAN shockingly I agree with you on the hard work statement, that is what D is essentially about….but I also agree with Bong below, Corey could play D when he wanted to or was motivated to…and motivating his players is your husband’s weak point…he lost Corey two seasons ago when he was starting Doug Christie over him…hard to motivate the players when you disrespect them.
Stian Reply:
March 11th, 2009 at 2:34 am
My husband?
What are you – like 13 years old? Does your dad know that you use his computer to insult other adults on the internet?
kirbs Reply:
March 11th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Should have worked it out by now Stian S113, comments are
best going straight over without reading everytime.
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Mardy Collins a good defender? PLEASE! I’ve seen so many players running over him…and on a side note: Dunleavy’s dream line up of Kaman, Camby and Randolph will NOT work…he’s an idiot..
Stian Reply:
March 10th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Dunleavy isn’t dreaming of playing Kaman, Camby and Randolph at the same time. He wants to rotate them – and there is nothing idiotic about that. In fact, there is a pretty good chance that it could be very successful once the different configurations get used to each other and learn how to play together.
As for Mardy Collins – he was a good enough defender to frustrate the hell out of Pierce and play a huge role in our Boston win. Either way, there is no question that Collins provides far better D than Thornton who is a damn sieve on the perimeter.
Seth Reply:
March 10th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Please stop…you’re boy Dunleavy messed it up once again..why would you play Kaman over Camby in the 2nd half? Dunleavy drew plays for a guy who’s been out since November! Obviously, just like Dunleavy, you don’t know anything about basketball.
Stian Reply:
March 11th, 2009 at 2:32 am
Hmm, maybe because Camby is dealing with his freaky ear infection / brain fluid thing that affects his equilibrium which could mean Kaman was actually in better shape to play longer than Marcus?
Section 113 Reply:
March 11th, 2009 at 8:51 am
Or maybe because he is just stupid…or maybe Camby is so fed up he is just complainging about headaches.
Seriously explain to us what you think makes Dunleavy a good coach?
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Thornton and Maggs have one thing in common– small brains. I play basketball recreationally and those good athletes who just dont “get it” are the most annoying players to have on your team. They make amazing plays some of the time. Most of the time you’re wishing he was on the other team.
Truth is, Maggs and Thornton look clueless out there. They are actually stupid basketball players. Ya I said it (Chris Rock). They score 17 or 22 ppg but do they look “smart” doing it? Nope. Thornton takes fadeaway jumpers when we all know that he’s MUCH more effective taking it to the hole. Maggs is GREAT at getting to the line and “getting his” but it has NEVER occured to him that his points get cancelled out by NOT assisting on other made baskets, by NOT playing good defense and by turning the ball over with inexplicable CHARGES that he’s been committing since, well forever.
These guys just dont get it because they’re idiots. THAT’s why i’d rather have Quinton Ross alongside a good offensive lineup. Lock it up.
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
by the way, we should drop a d-leaguer and grab Marcus Williams. Pure points dont grow on trees and hes a big guard with a sweet handle and best of all, a bargain at the price.
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Sick and tired of this BS.
How you blow ANOTHER 19pt lead?!
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
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