Watching the postseason over the past couple of weeks has offered a reminder that the NBA, at its essence, is a game of exploiting mismatches in the halfcourt. Good teams do this effectively when their offenses are humming. The standout defensive teams? They’re the ones who can recover from, compensate for, or avoid those mismatches altogether. They also have the capacity to withstand a defensive switch because they have smalls who can hold their own against bigs, and vice versa.
Among the Clippers’ many flaws, their ineffectiveness both offensively and defensively in this regard makes them a vulnerable team every night, no matter how much talent we perceive there to be on the court. When you watch how good Cleveland, Orlando, and Houston are at recovering defensively off the opponent’s action, it’s no wonder they’re playing basketball well into May. Orlando did incredible work on Boston’s flurry of picks and rolls Tuesday Monday night, and I haven’t seen the Cavs blow a defensive rotation in weeks. Some of their guys get beat off the dribble, but on screens — both on the off the ball — the Cavs choreograph defensive ballet.
The Clippers’ position defense poses problems from outset. Al Thornton and Zach Randolph are poor straight-up defenders, though Al has demonstrated that in simple isolation situations, he’s passable. Baron Davis, either because he’s gotten slower, stopped caring, or isn’t 1oo percent, is no better than average at the point, unless he recommits himself to on-ball defense. Though Marcus Camby excels as a team defender, he’s ineffective against both perimeter-oriented centers like Mehmet Okur, and isn’t a stalwart post defender one-on-one. Eric Gordon is undersized, which doesn’t hurt him every night, but creates problems against sharpshooting 2 guards. Chris Kaman, when healthy, has become a very serviceable defender down low, but not exactly Buck Williams or Hakeem.
Position defense is the foundation of team defense, but isolations represent only a fraction of halfcourt possessions. Where quality teams pick apart defenses is on pick-and-roll action. I had a chance to spend some time with Rockets’ assistant Elston Turner on Monday night discussing how Houston’s defensive machine works. Turner cited “defensive flexibility” as one of the primary assets to Houston’s defense. Sure, Houston has outstanding individual defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier, along with Yao Ming protecting the basket, but dynamic offensive players are still going to beat those guys several times a night. What Turner likes about his squad is that, if need be, Artest can switch onto a 1,2,3, or 4. Battier can guard the ball and has the ability and instincts to rotate to the weak side on reversals. Turner even had the chutzpah to put Luis Scola on Trevor Ariza for significant stretches Monday night because he knew that, at any point, there was a defender who could rotate over to help out Scola. Because Houston features that defensive flexibility, chances are that rotation wouldn’t cost them. This dynamic allowed Houston to assign Artest to Gasol at the pinch post, where so much of the Lakers’ offense is initiated. Artest could make a quick choice off that pinch post action: Does he stay on Gasol, or pick up the guy getting the handoff or pass? Either way, Houston wouldn’t be compromised all that much defensively.
What about the Clippers? Do they have guys who can defend multiple positions? Eric Gordon can cover either guard, but how often do you see a 1-2 screen-roll in the NBA? Only when Mike Bibby is on the floor. Against less potent 3s, Mike Dunleavy isn’t entirely uncomfortable letting Baron try his hand on a switch, which I don’t have a big problem with. To Dunleavy’s credit, he recognizes the team’s defensive limitations, and tries to keep them out of switch situations as much as possible.
The 2005-06 squad was masterful at making lemonade out of lemons in frenetic halfcourt possessions, and showed-and-recovered as well as any team in the West that season, save San Antonio. Cuttino Mobley, Elton Brand, and Quinton Ross were a big part of that — and Sam Cassell, challenged as he was, was heady enough to funnel the guys who beat him to the right spots. Unfortunately, this current Clippers defense doesn’t have the will or alacrity to do what’s necessary to avoid mismatches. They’re too slow [Baron, Randolph], too oblivious [Thornton], too unwilling [Camby], or still learning the intricacies of NBA defense [Gordon].
There’s a reason the Clippers haven’t beaten Utah in an eternity, got mauled against Denver post-Chauncey, and even lost that Toronto game by 70 points six weeks ago. They simply can’t withstand teams that force mismatches as their primary offensive strategy. I also think it’s not a coincidence they beat Boston when Fred Jones and Mardy Collins combined for 70 minutes. Those two guys offer the Clippers Turner’s defensive flexibility, something the Clippers desperately needed that night against Boston’s rotating pick-and-roll schemes. It’s just too bad that Jones and Collins are woefully inefficient offensive players.
Offensively, the Clippers are pretty lousy at exploiting mismatches with a few exceptions. Zach Randolph’s offensive instincts are solid in this area and it’s one of the things that makes him a strong offensive contributor. On a nightly basis, we saw him put the ball on the deck against slower 4s, and muscle inside against weaker post defenders, whether they were his assigned defender, or a player he picked up on the switch. Baron used to make mincemeat off 1-3 through 1-5 pick-and-rolls back in his Golden State days, but he was extremely tentative in 08-09 when big men were in front of him, opting to fire a contested jumper rather than blowing past the big. I don’t ascribe that to laziness. He expressed an earnest concern in conversation in January that he’d lost some explosiveness and didn’t feel like he could get to the rim like he used to. Whatever the case, it’s a monumental problem for the Clippers the next four years if their point guard can’t take advantage of a small-big mismatch. In an increasingly PG-driven league, that’s most teams’ most powerful weapon. Without it, you simply can’t run an efficient offense.
Given Baron’s limitations, it’s vital that more S/R action be initiated for Eric Gordon, and that Gordon continue to improve his ability to take full advantage of the space afforded him off those screens. Kaman’s return to full health will help Eric, because Chris is far and away the Clippers’ best pick man up top. That said, Chris still has room to improve his finesse on those screens in order to draw the mismatch for his guard — and for himself, too! Did you notice in the Chicago series how good Joakim Noah is at running interference on a simple brush screen, thereby getting Derrick Rose an opposing big man to penetrate against? You might not think of Dirk Nowitzki as a great screener, but watch how often Jason Terry ends up with a hulking big in front of him [and, in turn, how Dirk draws a small as his defender]. Other masters: Tim Duncan, Kendrick Perkins [though he's never set a legal screen in his life...still...it ain't illegal if they don't catch you], Udonis Haslem, Kurt Thomas, Lamar Odom.
Zach Randolph? Not on that list.
The Clippers finished 30th in offensive efficiency, and 26th in defensive efficiency last season. If they have any hopes of improving, they’ll need new personnel who can provide the sort of flexibility that will enable them to defend sound offensive teams, and an offense that’s more persistent at finding mismatches for its talent. They’ll also need their existing players to better recognize mismatches, something their small forward doesn’t do effectively. Even more important, their point guard must rehabilitate physically to the point where he can penetrate, which is the single most productive way to scramble a defense, and force it into bad rotations which often result in mismatches.
37 Responses
hey kevin, you ever think about being the coach for the clippers???
you seem to know a lot more about basketball than dun-ster…..
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Normally, this time of year, we Clipper fans are sifting through the draft and thinking about which team we can beat next season to get into the 8th or 7th seed in the playoffs… the offseason this year, however, is nearly as depressing as the season was. Between Kevin and Steve over at Clipsnation, there is no way to be optimistic about next year at all.
Being realistic about the Clips is good. I like looking at the facts. But the fact is, given the fact that we are not changing personnel or coaching, and that we ranked in near or at the bottom on every stats I can think of, instead of optimism for next season, we need to be resigned to watching another last place team.
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Great post KA…as usual. I dont know how you find the will to write about such a deflating team.
One way to fire up the fans is to design some updated uniforms. What do you guys think?
The blue alternate jerseys are horrible. Besides 2006, i cant think of the clippers EVER winning in those Blue uniforms.
I’m not asking for a major change to the logo– just something updated and cool… the only think i’d be afraid of is them f-ing it up like the houston rockets did a few years ago…
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Al has all the physical tools to be able to defend 1-3 and some 4′s. I wish he could just figure it out. He’s been in the league for just two years, and despite his age I’d hate to think that he has no hope of becoming a smarter defender in the future.
Clips should definitely consider some new uniforms. I love their uniforms the way they are, but they could definitely mix things up a bit. Houston’s uniforms now are terrible compared any of the ones they used to have. When it comes down to it, I wouldn’t care if the Clippers played completely naked if they were still playing in May.
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
I would. The red and white jerseys are fine. The light blue ones are rarley worn anyway.
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
They’re just blue not light blue. Kevin, really great analysis. I just hope Baron is not clubbing and rather working out/jump shooting. Zach is what he is, a scorer. If anything he kind of reminds me of Maggette in how he just can score at will but maggette mostly never finished, mostly free throws. The guy can rebound also. I just believe if he was more physically fit he can handle playing mediocre defense instead of just standing their. He obviously has great feet to basically score on up to 3 players down low. The more of zach I see I appreciate his offensive game. Kaman and Zach need to chill so he can show kaman how to finish around the rim better. If kaman could finish like zach he would be shooting 65% plus, seriously. I believe al’s game will start to come to life next season or not come at all. Eric is super young but he should be much better next year, he has his head on straight. I just hope for the best because we have enough skill on offense to keep up with any team and physically there shouldn’t be any problem with our team defense at all.
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
This is the best analysis of a team’s personnel I’ve read in a very long time. Nice work.
D.J. Foster Reply:
May 7th, 2009 at 12:23 am
I’ll second that.
Posted on May 6th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
K.A. pretty much touched on everything, but I’ll add a little something. Take a look at the last 5 NBA championship teams:
Boston had James Posey.
San Antonio (2 rings) had Bruce Bowen.
Miami had James Posey as well.
Detroit had Tayshaun Prince.
Every great team has that player who can cover 1-4 and can be trusted to go heads up with the opposing team’s biggest offensive threat night in and night out. It’s important to note that while the 3 players listed above aren’t huge offensive threats, they can all shoot the ball really well from the outside. That’s what seperates them from guys like Mardy Collins, Fred Jones, and Quinton Ross.
Want to find a successful regime that really values these types of players? Look down the hallway. Rick Fox. Devean George. Trevor Ariza. These guys could all play great on ball defense and knock down that corner three. That’s the role, and it’s a necessary one to fill in order to be a serious contender.
Posted on May 7th, 2009 at 3:20 am
In other news, Manny just tested positive for PEDs. Way to go Manny!
ACD Reply:
May 7th, 2009 at 10:29 am
let’s go mets!
Posted on May 7th, 2009 at 10:01 am
i’m sure that many astute clipper fans have noted that there are numerous clipper rejects playing in the second round of the playoffs: eddie house& mikey moore of the celtics; james singleton of the mavs;josh powell of the lakers; von wafer of the rockets- who like many clipper pickups was not deemed good enough by coach d to get even a minimum chance to play; “birdman”anderson of the nuggets who tried out & apparently wasn’t good enough to get an offer but looks pretty good enough now (also jason hart of the nuggets); & ,of course, probably the best of them all, brent barry of the rockets who was dumped so many years ago because our former great coach bill fitch who won even less games one year than our resident genius did this year, thought he wouldn’t make it because he was too thin & too creative. most of the above have shown themselves to be more than adequate for their subsequent teams & some have even excelled, but coach d was never able to figure out how their best skills could be utilized. the best example of this is eddie house who has played extremely well for boston & scored 31 pts. last night. he has always been a lights out shooter, much like steve novak, but coach d could never seem to get him-like novak- the ball when & where he needed it. he insisted on trying to make him a point guard-which he wii never be- instead of letting him do what he is really good at-to the teams everlasting detriment. thats bad coaching & is a hallmark of coach d’s rigid approach to the game. another reason he must go.
FireDunleavy .com Reply:
May 7th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
I couldn’t understand why they didn’t resign Singleton
Gordon for President Reply:
May 7th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
By your logic the Kings, Suns, Bucks, Bobcats, Nets, and Heat made the same mistake with Eddie House. The same goes for Mikki Moore, Kings, Jazz, Sonics, Nets, etc. There’s a reason players like these are Journeyman. I want Dunleavy gone as much as the next man, but Chris Andersen looks stellar because he’s making the Veteran’s minimum. Let’s not forogot he was banned for two years because of what I assume was heroin use. Don’t even mention Josh Powell in any way, dude was a full-time starter and, at best, managed to avergae about 6 and 6. I want Dunleavy gone, but it’s ridiculous to blame him for not keeping players like these. It takes certain systems/teams to bring out the best of players. Mikki Moore had a career year in New Jersey because of Jason Kidd. I think Rod Thorn is one of the best executives in the league, there’s a reason he let him walk to SAC for nothing.
bongstradamus Reply:
May 8th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
It was Meth. Birdman was a tweaker. Something about 82 games in the season and uppers make a lot of sense.
neiljphx Reply:
May 10th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
i read it was heroin at the time he got banned.
bongstradamus Reply:
May 10th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
It’s the great mystery, nobody really knows for sure. I’ve just heard him called “America’s favorite recovering meth addict” and a search for Chris Anderson Meth just brings up a gangload of rumors to troll.
He tested positive. What he was really doing, nobody really knows other than it can be one of like 20 substances. Maybe he just dropped some LSD and went to a rave with Keith Van Horn.
Posted on May 7th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Our two highest paid players, Zach and Baron, are defensive liabilities… Baron has also become an offensive liability… How can anyone expect us to win anything with these guys leading the way?
Also, Gordon took 11 shots a game to score his 16 points. Baron took 17 to score his 16 points. Baron should do whatever it takes to get Gordon six more shots a game, primarily giving up six of his bricks… But he won’t.
I’ve been a fan since they moved to LA, and this was the most under-acheiving group of players they’ve ever had. They were totall unwatchable… And because they’re a veteran team, I find little cause for optimism in the coming season as it seems certain that Dunleavy, Baron and Zach are coming back.
Posted on May 8th, 2009 at 10:57 am
all i’m saying is that good coaches are adaptable,& do what it takes to make the best use of the players they have. moreover, they are able to motivate their players to be the best they can be. coach d. doesn’t seem to be able to do that at this point. best example of that is his treatment of chris kamen who has been allowed to remain an out-of-shape hopelessly lost goofball despite his enormous physical talents (when he actually shows up to play), without any apparent effort on his part to make kamen understand that he is a professional athlete making $10 million a year who has an obligation to make best efforts to earn that money.
Posted on May 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am
I read that there is supposedly a deal on the table between Memphis and Phoenix to move Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and one other player to PHX for Shaqs expiring mega-deal.
Makes me think Dunleavy should package Al and Kaman and try to trade them to Memphis for Gay on a sign and trade. At least theyll have more upside, but they cant get 20m off their books by next year.
Itd be a compelling dilemna for Wallace. But we could really use a player like Rudy on the wing.
Gordon for President Reply:
May 8th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
I don’t buy that for a second, Memphis is a historically poorly run franchise, but how can they justify giving up the cornerstone of the franchise for an expiring contract? It doesn’t hurt that he and O.J. Mayo seem to be really tight. Any deal between Memphis would have to include Amar’e.
bongstradamus Reply:
May 8th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Its a money thing. People are doing ridiculous things to get under cap. And I think Memphis fell out of love with Conley during the season so seeing him included isnt a surprise. OJ Mayo played really well for them, is still on a rookie deal and Rudy is up for a new contract. It might be their cornerstone became defined by their price tag. If they can move Rudy in a sign and trade, they can either add a significant amount in potential players or swap him for a legit All-Star or, as in the Shaq rumor, one of the hugest expiring contracts in the league leaving them with 20M+ in space by 2010.
So in ways, it actually makes a whole lot of sense that they are shopping him around. Rudy Gay’s paper value is going to increase exponentially. They bought a house at $3.5M and now its worth $16M. As investors, they are asking themselves if they should sell. And they are smart to be doing so.
Gordon for President Reply:
May 8th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
I see that, but Amar’e is also an expiring contract. Getting him means they can let him walk and still save a ton, or actually build something if they can retain him. With Shaq, you get the expiring contract, but absolutely no shot at keeping a stud player beyond next season.
FireDunleavy .com Reply:
May 9th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Wouldn’t Shaq veto the trade? I can’t see him wanting to play for Memphis
Posted on May 8th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Conley had his best year this season. Rudy gay, oj mayo and conley are not moving
Posted on May 8th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
I think Memphis may be the new Clippers, circa 1990′s… The sole purpose of their new owners may be to keep cheap players, while getting rid of anyone they have to pay, so they can keep their overhead low and turn a profit, playoffs be damned… Look at the moves they’ve made over the last two years. Gasol goes for nothing… Battier for a draft pick (Rudy Gay)… Now that Rudy is due, perhaps they don’t want to pay him… It would be in keeping with what they’ve been doing of late… When O.J. Mayo comes up, maybe they won’t keep him either…
Sterling operated that way for 20 years and made great profits for himself.
RL Reply:
May 11th, 2009 at 1:10 am
I actually think the moves that Memphis made the past couple of years are solid, and they now have a talented young core to build around. Everyone criticizes the Gasol trade to LA, but they did get Pau’s younger brother – who has already shown that he is a talented player with the willingness to bang (unlike that softie Pau). Getting Rudy Gay for Shane Battier was a genius move. Shane Battier is a great locker room presence and a solid complimentary player, but he doesn’t have the talent to be a team’s centerpiece – like what they expect from Gay. Conley and OJ are both young kids with great upside. If Memphis lets them develop, a starting 5 of Gasol, Arthur/Warrick, Gay, Mayo, and Conley can definitely challenge for a playoff spot, similar to the team that Portland is building.
Now if only the Clippers can do the same thing, I’d go to more of their games. We already have a good start with Gordon, DJ, Taylor, Novak, and Thornton (when his head is in the game…). All have potential, we just need a good starting SF and PF. With that said, I’m also willing to give Baron, and Kaman another chance – but I’m not going to the games till they start getting results.
Sam Mays Reply:
May 11th, 2009 at 9:40 am
Agreed, if Memphis is truly trying to rebuild… The evidence isn’t in yet… If they unload Gay it will be a sign they only intend to keep the team cheap…
Rebuilding starts with unloading overpaid “stars.” with Randolph and Baron, Dunleavy has gotten us into such a mess that there is no way to move either of them… Not even for a second-round pick just get out from under their contracts. Winners aren’t aloud to walk from their teams so they are rarely available as free agents… Lots of losers are allowed to walk, and that’s what we’ve spent most of our money on… Sadly, we can’t even do much toward rebuilding until we get rid of these “leaders” Dunleavy has saddled us with.
bongstradamus Reply:
May 11th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Not totally sure, but i think Warrick is a restricted FA this season. I wouldnt be surprised if he gets offers from other teams needing a tweener, nor would I be surprised if Memphis didnt chase him because he never really turned into what Jerry West expected. Marc Gasol was great for them, he really is a true center. Hell from a talent perspective Id be happier if we had Marc over Chris. When it becomes about money, it’s even more of a no brainer. The team Memphis has for what they are paying is ridiculous. It almost makes me wish we had their problems instead of our own. They have some cap available this offseason as well which may put them in a position to sign a real player in an undervalued and depressed market.
They even have Darius Miles. I mean, in all honesty, if we were to have a sister team, I think it would be the Grizz. I like watching what they are doing and the talent they go after. At least when they lose, its with some self-respect.
Sam Mays Reply:
May 12th, 2009 at 10:58 am
You’re right. The Grizze are in a much better position than we are… They are saddled with no bad contracts (we have three) and they have cap space to add a player whenever they want…
They also have better young talent than we have… There is no worse place to be in, in the NBA than having a veteran team that doesn’t perform. The player’s stock goes way down and for good reason… Smart GM’s pay their players for wins, not numbers…
Posted on May 9th, 2009 at 9:18 am
When is the freaking lottery?
Posted on May 9th, 2009 at 10:56 am
2009 NBA Draft Lottery Date and Odds
The NBA draft lottery date is May 19th, 2009.
If teams finish the season with the same record, they are given the average between the two. If three teams ties, add the 3 odds together then divide by 3. The draft lottery drawing only determines the top 3 positions, the remaining 4-14 picks are the inverse order of the final standing for the non-playoff teams.
Team Record Combos 1st 2nd 3rd
Sacramento 17 – 65 250 25.00% 21.47% 17.72%
Washington 19 – 63 199 19.90% 18.78% 17.07%
LA Clippers 19 – 63 138 13.80% 14.24% 14.54%
Oklahoma 23 – 59 137 13.70% 14.16% 14.48%
Minnesota 24 – 58 76 7.60% 8.44% 9.47%
Memphis 24 – 58 75 7.50% 8.33% 9.37%
Golden State 29 – 53 43 4.30% 4.93% 5.77%
New York 32 – 50 28 2.80% 3.26% 3.87%
Toronto 33 – 49 17 1.70% 2.00% 2.40%
Milwaukee 34 – 48 11 1.10% 1.30% 1.57%
New Jersey 34 – 48 8 0.80% 0.95% 1.15%
Charlotte 35 – 47 7 0.70% 0.83% 1.01%
Indiana 36 – 46 6 0.60% 0.71% 0.87%
Phoenix 46 – 36 5 0.50% 0.59% 0.72%
Sam Mays Reply:
May 14th, 2009 at 7:41 am
Since we tied with the Wizards, the 2nd and 3rd ping pong balls are pooled and divided evenly… They actually have only one more combination than us… I think it’s 17.9 to 17.8 or something close to that.
If neither team gets into the top three, they will pick one spot before us.
Posted on May 11th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
seems really unfair that the difference in combos between 2nd and 3rd is 61 combos, whereas the difference between 3rd and 4th is onlt 1 combo…..
just the clipper’s luck to lose the tiebreaker…..
maybe we can put a positive spin on this……let’s see…..if we would’ve gotten 2nd or 3rd, we probably would’ve drafted either griffin or rubio…..
our team, although not greatly improved, would’ve won enough games to get out of the lottery……
if we get a rookie that makes no impact at all, then maybe we can contend ofr worst record once again…..and if we luck into the first overall pick, perhaps we can draft john wall……
and that my friends, is what being a clippers fan is all about……hanging your hopes on some ridiculous improbablt scenario…..
dumbleavy i hate you, baron i hate you, kaman you moron, thornton you’re also stupid, gordon i feel bad for you, randolph you loser, and sterling hire a good coach and hire a legit GM that doesn’t trade away valuable expiring contracts for the likes of zach-fucking-randolph, and one that doesn’t sign heartless, cancerous perenial losers like baron “ass bruise” davis…….
run on sentences are fun, but at this point, i don’t give a shit, i’m just really frustrated with this nbdl team masquerading as an nba team….this “team” known as the clippers…..bunch of losers…….
Brett W Reply:
May 13th, 2009 at 12:08 am
You nailed it with this post
Posted on May 12th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Who cares, Bulls won last year with no chance. Lottery is fixed. NBA is fixed. Clippers will never be good until Bon Jovi and Mario Lopez buy them.
bongstradamus Reply:
May 13th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Ya know, the Billy Crystals is starting to have a nice ring to it.
Posted on May 13th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
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