The Clippers’ dysfunction and bad chemistry have been well-documented, and the cultural issues that surround the club must be addressed before the 2009-10 season opener. But even if the Clippers return to training camp as a svelte, rededicated bunch, there are some fundamental weaknesses that extend beyond things like effort, coaching, and alchemy.
They’re difficult problems to evaluate, largely because of the dynamic we’re all familiar with: To the naked eye (and Mike Dunleavy), the Clippers don’t have any obvious gaping holes. Healthy, they have a chance to win every night. They feature a solid frontcourt rotation, a dynamic 20-year-old shooting guard, some promising young talent in the stable, a point guard who has promised to rededicate himself (and can’t possibly shoot worse than he did in 2008-09). So says the book.
The problem with this premise, of course, is that it simply isn’t true. Though each player features redeemable qualities (even Baron Davis, for all his shooting woes, put up some decent pure point numbers and finished with a league-average PER), the Clippers, as a collective, have serious deficiencies. Part of that is environmental/cultural/competing agendas, but there are fundamental on-court issues, as well:
- Base Defense: The Clippers finished 26th in defensive efficiency. Although some of that can be ascribed to a team that featured only three five-man units that logged more than 100 minutes together, the issues can’t be explained away with the simple idea that a team can’t gel defensively unless they play together for long stretches. We’ve discussed the issues here at length, and if you’ve been watching any postseason basketball, you see how effectively the good teams defend the screen/roll and how that contrasts with the Clippers efforts. Zach Randolph’s last four teams have finished 26th, 29th, 26th, and 28th respectively in defensive efficiency (his 2004-05 Portland squad finished a mediocre 20th, though Zach played in only 46 games). Baron Davis? 26th, 23rd, 17th, 17th, 17th/26th (split season GSW/NOH). If the Clips trade Marcus Camby this offseason, and that’s conceivable, they’ll lose a guy who finished 3rd in the NBA in individual defensive rating (per adjusted +/-).
- Shot Selection: The Clippers were 24th in the NBA in three-point percentage, yet spent 22% of their attempts on shots beyond the arc (15th), making them one of the outliers in the league. Most teams grasp their limitations, but not the Clips. They compound a weakness by indulging. Baron Davis is the worst offender. Though he shot only .302 from three-point range, he used 34% of his attempts on three-balls. Of the 82 eligible players in the NBA who made the three-point shot more than 30% of their attempts, Davis was dead last in 3P%. Any chance Davis will moderate his shot selection next season? The good news is that there’s precedence. After a rough 2005-06 season, Davis scaled back his 3PA/game from 6.0 to 4.4.
Unfortunately, you’ll find patterns like this up and down the Clippers’ roster. Take Al Thornton. Here’s a guy with freakish athleticism who shoots .611 on inside shots — quite, quite good — but only .365 on two-point jumpers. That, in and of itself, isn’t a problem. Paul Millsap’s split on inside/2P jumpers is .634/.367, which makes him a decent comp. The difference is that while Thornton uses a majority of his shot attempts on two-point jumpers (53%), Millsap takes a two-point jumper only 36% of the time. Millsap maximizes his efficiency by taking the ball inside 63% of the time, while Al makes inside shots a measly 36% of this attempts. Yes, Millsap is a power forward, but he lacks Al’s dribble-drive ability. Want some SF comps? See Young, Thaddeus (yes, he’s a 3), Kirilenko, Andrei, and Ariza, Trevor.
Marcus Camby is another offender. There’s no good reason that a big man who converts his two-point jumpers at a .343 clip should use 48% of his shot attempts on them. There was only one other player in the NBA who shot below .350 on 2-point jumpers, yet devoted such a heavy proportion of his shots to them — Tyrus Thomas.
Even Zach Randolph, a fairly efficient scorer, could use some improvement. His inside/2PJ split was .645/.377, but he took more of the latter (42%/46%). In terms of Inside/2PJ shooting percentage, Kendrick Perkins, Emeka Okafor, and David Lee are all good comps for Randolph, but each attempted more than twice as many inside shots as two-point jumpers. It’s an unsettling trend for Zach. Three seasons ago, he allocated 60% of his attempts to shots in the basket area. In 2007-08, that number dipped to 51%. And now 42%.
Shot selection is a potentially fixable problem. Guys have patterns, but those habits aren’t necessarily predilections. Thornton can be coached to put the ball on the deck and drive, and there were times last season he took that initiative and had some of his best games of the season. - Passing: Nothing new here. Mike Dunleavy has been collecting incapable passers for years. Wing players such as Cuttino Mobley, Corey Maggette, and Al Thornton stifle ball movement on the perimeter. Theoretically, a guard of Eric Gordon’s combo pedigree should help — and his 15.0 assist rate isn’t horrendous — but it’s clear that EJ’s height doesn’t allow him to see the NBA floor, at least not yet. Apart from Marcus Camby, who’s good-not-great, forget about any help from the bigs. Kaman has improved, but still gets flustered in double-team situations and doesn’t have the confidence to make plays for others. Zach Randolph is a vacuum, with neither the instincts nor inclination to do anything with the ball other than shoot. Until the organization makes a concerted attempt to draft, develop, and acquire guys who can keep the ball moving in the halfcourt, the Clippers are destined to be relegated to the bottom third of the NBA’s scrap heap offensively — healthy or not. Unlike 2005-06, the Clippers no longer have a defense that can compensate for a low-grade offense.
Over the next 10 weeks or so, we’ll find out whether Mike Dunleavy intends to cling to the apocryphal notion that the Clippers’ roster, as presently constituted, can succeed at full health, or whether he’ll take measures to address the very real basketball issues that plague this club. Although it’s important to remember that trades aren’t easy to execute in the NBA, smart front offices find ways to dislodge a Luis Scola from a rival, or snag a Nicolas Batum. The Clippers must add more complete players to the roster — bigs who can pass, perimeter players who can defend multiple positions, and guards who can rebound. There are too many multifaceted players in the NBA to rely on single-dimensional talents who may impress with a 20-10, or can jump out of the gym, but can’t perform the basic tasks and grasp the nuances that elevate bad teams to respectability.
13 Responses
Interesting Perpective!
Thanks for taking the time.
Posted on May 17th, 2009 at 12:42 am
Defensively, the Clippers have two major liabilities at two key positions… The 1 and the 4. Both are very poor on ball defenders. Baron can’t keep anyone in front of him and doesn’t take any pride in playing D and Zach isn’t any better. And those are your two most highly paid players who are supposed to set the tone. Defense is a bit of intelligence and a willingness to do a lot of hard work… Neither player shows much in either catagory because both seem to think the game is only about their numbers, which is why Baron cheats into the passing lanes and gets his steals, trying to validate that he plays D while getting beat to the basket over and over, because that doesn’t show up in his stat line.
Offensively, the Clippers take poor shots, often late in the clock… Dunleavy has to take some of the blame here for calling out so many plays, which can take time to set up. The other culpret is Baron, who walks the ball up, bounces it forever out high and no longer appears to have the quickness to break down the defense creating easy shots for himself and, more importantly, his teammates… While his assist numbers are still solid, it seems misleading because he dominates the ball so completely…
I don’t blame Al for taking a lot of jump shots. When he gets the ball, it often seems to be late in the clock, after Baron has wasted 14 seconds… Because Gordon is our only capable shooter, defenses collapse, making drives to the basket difficult.
Zach isn’t a bad outside shooter, but I think teams prefer that he takes those rather than get inside where he’ll get fouled.
The other offensive problem is a lack of ball movement and player movement… Dunleavy’s offense requires lots of standing around on the weak side, by three players while a two man play is run on the strong side. Fine, once in awhile if you have a matchup you’d like to exploit, but Dunleavy often calls the same play 5 times in a row…
Posted on May 17th, 2009 at 8:47 am
I’ll add another bullet point:
- Coaching:
The Clippers feature a coach with a career winning percentage of .463. He has only won more than 50 games 3 times in 16 seasons. He has only won more than 40 games 6 times in 16 seasons. He has only won more games than he’s lost in a season 7 times in 16 seasons. He has only had one winning season in 6 seasons with the Clippers, mind you these weren’t the penny pinching Clippers, but a Clipper organization that has been willing to spend money over that 6 seasons.
He has only achieved the top 15 in offensive efficiency 6 times in 16 seasons. He has achieved the top 15 in defensive efficiency 8 times in 16 seasons.
If you take into account that fact that his best coaching seasons came from good situations that he inherited from other coaches (an outstanding Laker team from Pat Riley and a Blazer team that finished 49-33 from PJ Carlesimo) the numbers look even more suspect.
Posted on May 17th, 2009 at 11:42 am
So BD is representing the Clippers for the ping pong ball thing. Good thinking by Dunleavy. He can blame BD if they don’t get the first pick.
Posted on May 17th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I just wanted to take a sec to thank Kevin Arnovitz for actually going through and writing about a team that must sometimes feel like it isn’t worth the time.
It’s nice to know I’m not alone as a Clipper fan sometimes
bongstradamus Reply:
May 18th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Seriously, the only thing thats made me feel like this is still a franchise since Elton left is Kevin’s impeccable blogging. After all the excitement of two game 7′s and a host of better teams playing in the playoffs, Kevin still has some time to talk about our Clippers. That’s serious dedication.
Posted on May 17th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
I said I was thru with the Clippers after this season. But after reading Kevin’s blogs, Im going to give them another year. Kevin is the reason the Clips have a handful of loyal fans.
Posted on May 18th, 2009 at 11:47 am
I bought Suite C tickets for $20 each . If I can get the same deal I will be in Staples next season. I was there for the home opener against LA’s other team. Baron Davis came on to the court with the mic in his hand and said that it was going to be a new and better season. Clippers were only down by 2 or 3 at the end of the 1st qtr.
My GF looked over and said to me ” not bad , they are almost tied” , I said ” They are better than you think” . The Clippers were down by 20 at halftime . I am curious to see what Dunleavy does this summer and I will probably watch from home next season.
Posted on May 18th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
does anyone know how many times a team with the 3rd highest chance to get the 1st draft pick actually got it? since 1990?
Posted on May 19th, 2009 at 8:04 am
The Clippers need a lot of help. Here is a breakdown of all fourteen teams in the draft tonight including what it will look like for the Clippers:
http://therookiecontract.com/
Posted on May 19th, 2009 at 8:23 am
If Clippers get #1 or #2, expect Dunleavy to keep his job for the rest of the year, or maybe get an extension. I dunno what I hope for.
Posted on May 19th, 2009 at 9:17 am
One phone call from my rep. since the season ended. No deals for the STH.’s. I’m still watching with slight interest what happens, but have pretty much had the Clipper blood drained from me.
Posted on May 19th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Fantastic blogging piece, very well done.
Anyways, we’re, for a lack of a more refined term, “most likely screwed”. We banked on Elton coming back with us last season and we lost the most of that situation when we signed BD.
We fortunately got Camby for basically nothing and if we can get rid of the other players I’ll be naming, it would be smart to hold on tight to him.
Zach Randolph, we should’ve never traded for him. We’re probably stuck with him now, unless someone will take him for basically nothing… and Dunleavy can get his head out of the gutter and pull the trigger.
Baron Davis, same thing. He’s not nearly as unmovable as Randolph but after last season, I really don’t know.
The last offseason, I remember the general consensus on ClipperBlog was that “We got cheated by Brand, but on paper we could be a fast and surprising team that could sneak in there” when really, that was never going to happen. You have to remember the year we almost made it to the WCF, we had someone leading the team besides Dunleavy (on court in Cassell, not saying Mike wasn’t still “coaching”), a new attitude and a career MVP like year from Brand.
We’re not that team anymore and we ARE going to struggle. Many teams struggle, we’re just better at it.
Just have to keep the faith, turn your clipper hat inside out and hope for the best tonight and in the next few weeks. All it takes is a few moves, look at Boston.
Posted on May 19th, 2009 at 11:18 am
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