Here’s the sixth installment of the Clipperblogger Summit.
Previous entries:
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Part Five
To: Kevin Arnovitz
From: Steve Perrin
Date: June 14, 2009
Kevin -
I’m going to push back (a little) on the Randolph trade. Your point is well taken that if you’re not seriously contending, you’re re-building (a variation on Ricky Bobby’s “If you ain’t first, you’re last.“) But you have to take chances sometimes also. Mobley/Thomas were certainly not a part of the Clippers‘ future, and Citizen Zhiv correctly points out that trading Mobley sparked the one glimmer of hope for the 08-09 edition of the LAC, Eric Gordon. Given that Mobley+Thomas make the same amount as Randolph and are signed through this coming season, the additional liability wasn’t 32 months and $45M (or so) but rather 1 year and $17M. Not insignificant, I’ll grant you, but you can’t get something for nothing. So I’ve always maintained that you can’t call the Randolph trade a mistake – yet. Might the Cavs trade Ben Wallace and his expiring deal for the scoring machine that is Zach Randolph? They might – or there might be another trade out there that leaves the Clippers no worse off from a 2010 cap standpoint than they were with Mobley/Thomas. Now, MDsr’s attitude seems to be “Why would I be looking to ’salary dump’ 20 points and 10 rebounds?” so it’s probably not going to happen. But I’m going to wait until next off-season before I pass judgement on the trade. The team gave up nothing but cap space – and they haven’t actually given that up yet.
I’m also not convinced that the Portland rebuilding method is replicable. On their 08-09 roster, a team that played great and made the playoffs, all but three players were on rookie deals. So you can credit them for drafting incredibly well in recent years – and that Paul Allen piggy bank they use to buy Suns picks has come in handy – but it’s not a sustainable formula, “Let’s get rid of all the vets and win with young guys.” Nine times out of ten, that roster isn’t going to get you to the playoffs, and eventually those young guys have to be re-signed as well.
But more to the point, let’s look at why the future looks so bright in Portland and (to a less extent) Oklahoma City. It’s because they have young players with star potential to build around. They each have one can’t miss mega-star, and are hoping that one or more of their other youngsters can make it to an all star level to complement the top guy – call it the Batman and Robin theory.
Before Blake Griffin has ever played an NBA game – indeed before he’s even been drafted – there’s reason for optimism that he and Eric Gordon can be the Clippers’ dynamic duo. And there are still some other guys on rookie deals that can help. We’ve discussed the need for an alternative to Al Thornton, but he remains nonetheless an incredible bargain for two more seasons as a mid first round draft pick. DeAndre Jordan and Mike Taylor are not as productive as Thornton now, but are younger and both have intriguing potential. I’m very much looking forward to watching Taylor, Gordon, Griffin and Jordan play together next month in Las Vegas. That’s an exciting foursome.
I think you and I are in agreement on this season – be opportunistic on trades, but by no means be desperate. If the right deal is available, take it, but don’t take on any bad contracts. (Deng’s contract is borderline in my book.) Worst case scenario, if you enter the season with this group, that’s not a bad thing. Could this team ‘win now’? Actually, yeah, they could. But it would involve Chris Kaman returning to his Kaman 2.0 form of the first half of 07-08, and Baron Davis returning to, well some form of point guard.
Davis is the key. But the good news is that there’s no uncertainty. The Clippers’ fortunes are tied to Baron as much as his fortunes are tied to the Clippers. The team has no choice but to stick with Baron for a while at least. The last time he was traded it was for Speedy Claxton and a 36 year old Dale Davis and his stock is lower now than it was then. Besides, even if the Clippers could move him for salary relief, they’d still need someone to play point guard. This remains a point guard driven league, and it wasn’t that long ago that Baron Davis was in the upper echelon. Last season he was by many measures the worst point guard in the league. Surely he wants some redemption as much as the Clippers want some leadership. So what happened last season? Was he out of shape? Was he hand-cuffed by his coach? Was he sulking? And where was the explosiveness of the man who was one of the most physical points in the NBA? Was he injured, or did he just get old? Whatever the case, the guy who detonated in the muzzle of AK47 a mere two year ago had a measly three dunks all season as a Clipper, none of them memorable.
Baron has evidently been working out on a daily basis since May 10th, an indication that perhaps he is indeed looking for that redemption. Given how good Gordon is, and how good Griffin could be, if Baron Davis can return to his Golden State form, the Clippers actually have a chance to be competitive. If on the other hand Baron really has lost it, it bodes very badly for the team. Talk about a millstone – Randolph’s deal runs two more years; Baron’s runs until 2013 (a year that seems like the setting for a science fiction movie).
Immediately following the lottery, the entire Clippers organization began talking about playing up tempo. Andy Roeser brought it up the night of the lottery. Neil Olshey mentioned it more than once, without even being asked, at his press conference the next day. Unfortunately, it had the feel of spin, like a political campaign getting on message; this was a talking point. And of course it would make sense – season ticket holders might be more inclined to renew if they believed the team was going to run more.
I hope it’s not just spin, because I happen to be a big believer in pushing the pace. It can be very difficult to score against an NBA defense once it’s set. A few easy baskets in transition can do wonders for a team’s shooting percentage (one of the reasons the Clippers have been near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage is that they don’t get nearly enough easy scores.) Even if it’s not a pure ‘fill the lane’ fast break, if Kaman (or whichever big) can hustle down the floor, and get good post position and the team can get him the ball early in the possession, that’s a much better situation than running that cross screen to get probably worse position, this time with only 8 seconds left on the shot clock. With premium athletes joining the team three drafts in a row, it only makes sense to get them out and let them run – especially when you consider the particular talents of Baron Davis. Fast breaks start with rebounding, which the Clippers did incredibly poorly last season (29th in the league in rebounding differential at -4.2). With Blake Griffin joining Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph, the Clippers should be monsters on the glass (and it would help if Al Thornton and Eric Gordon weren’t such terrible rebounders for their positions and obviously there’s no reason they shouldn’t be better than they are). If you’re looking for a bellweather stat for the 09-10 Clippers, that’s my candidate: rebounding differential.
In general, next season will be a success if Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin develop and if Baron Davis re-emerges even slightly, regardless of what else happens. Neither Gordon nor Griffin have reached the legal drinking age in California – so you’re talking about some kids who can get a lot better. The 10-11 season becomes crucial though. The other rookie contract players (Thornton, Taylor and Jordan) will all be in the last year of their rookie deals – after that, they either get much more expensive or they’re gone. So it’s vital to know who those guys are by then. If, say two out of those three pan out, and assuming that Gordon and Griffin are for real, the Clippers will be one of those up and coming teams once again.
In all of this, I feel like we’re kind of taking Gordon for granted. I tended to write one rave review per month about him last season, so I think everyone knows what I think about the guy – I think he’s easily the second best rookie from last season after Derrick Rose. But am I looking at him through ‘Gordon’ colored glasses: how good is the kid?
Steve
29 Responses
these are way too long to read dude.
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Clipper Derrick Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
It’s still a great read.
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Posted on June 15th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Clips need to dump Kaman. I think this is very possible, and the time to do it is on draft night to get a Trevor Ariza type player on the floor for the Clips. He was the difference in many of those playoff and Championship games. The Clips sorely need perimeter defense. The scoring will come from Baron, Griffin, Zach, Gordon and Thorton.
Kaman can be replaced by Deandre and and Camby. Kamans fucked up attitude should be enough reason to get rid of his ass…along with his constant injuries, he is never on the court to even support his team. How about his little lupe-di-doop fuckin layups…how many times did we hear Ralph or Mike Smith say that he needed to dunk the ball rather than play paddy-cakes with the fuckin rim! Then his fuckin summer trips to play for the german national team (where he probably fucked up his foot)–Get your priorities straight buddy!! MDsnr do the Clipper Nation a favor and get rid of this cancer from the team.
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Posted on June 15th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
Couldn’t agree more. I can’t stand the guy. He is an idiot and doesn’t care enough to get his ass on the court with all his sissy, piddling and pitiful injuries. When he is on the court his head is never in the game and he sucks. It must be really hard to be 7 feet tall and miss all those layups. I would give him away for free.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 1:03 am
I would trade Kaman for Hinrich in a heartbeat. Gives us a nice guard rotation of Gordon, Baron and Hinrich and gets rid of a player that is living off the back of one really good season when he was the only low post presence.
Shift him and his 45 game seasons to someone who actually thinks he’s got some value. Yes, it might come back to bite you if he suddenly plays a couple of 80 game seasons but we need to take that risk and move on.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 1:37 am
could not agree more with the previous comments about kaman. only a fool like coach D. could keep on putting him out on the floor.The key problem with BD is that not only was he awful last year but he’s also the most selfish player in the league-not a great attribute for a point guard. I still believe Thornton has a huge upside if he is properly coached & Zach is getting a bum rap. he is tough inside& works hard. The Sporting News picked him as the 3rd best post player in the leagueh His main problem last year was that his point guard kept dribbling the ball instead of getting it to him early in the possessions.Jordan& Taylor are great prospects,but need to be properly coached-therein lies the rub since we’re still,unfortunately in the Dunleavy era.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Glad to see you three have just proven that 75% of all posters are idiots. Kaman’s injuries are legit. Clippers front office did not want him to huury back and possibly injure himself more seriously when the season was already over. The clips are going to stand by kaman. you want to get rid of a team cancer, a negative person, and a terrible individual, then get rid of randolph. Reports out of wyoming michigan have kaman working out 3 to 4 hours a day, he has already lost 20 pounds and is getting into the best shape of his nba career. get off this young fellas back, because you three tools, will also be the first to jump on the kaman bandwagon when he averages a double-double this year, for another sorry excuse for a team. Get rid of zack and baron and watch the W’a pile up.
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adadhs Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
That’s great news if those reports are true
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Chris Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Kaman’s foot injuries made him fumble easy passes out of bounds in the beginning of the season? His foot injury caused him to double-clutch under the basket and give defenders time to recover instead of just going up immediately? Wait, so his foot injury causes him to catch an entry pass about 16 feet away from the basket, and instead of passing out and geting deeper position, the foot injury causes him to try and back his man down from way too far out, and predictably end up dribbling the ball off his foot? Forget what you heard, Kaman was 10 times the blackhole last year that Randolph is reputed to be. He actually will impede the team if he is forced into the lineup next year, thus it is my hope that he is traded for essentially anything at all.
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chaderack Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Kaman is that you?
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chaderack Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
You must be Kaman’s Dad.
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bongstradamus Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Kaman’s foot has nothing to do with his basketball IQ or lack of aggressiveness. Hes a nice kid, but he just doesnt seem to function in real-time and is a turnover waiting to happen. Maybe its a confidence thing, but after 5 years you should stop making rookie mistakes every game.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 11:27 am
I’m a Kaman fan. But at this point if the Pistons want to deal to bring home the Caveman – say for LAC to bring home Prince then it should be done.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
kamans problems are in his head not in his feet. his talents are undeniable, but i’m not convinced that working out 3-4 hours a day will cure his mental issues unless he’s working out with Sigmund Freud- & i do believe he’s been dead for quite a while.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Whose gonna be our center if we ship Kaman outa town, Camby will be likely gone by the trade deadline, there is no way that no-D Randolph can gonna fill the role, and we can’t be banking on the idea that Jordan will be ready to start at 5 by then.
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bongstradamus Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
We could always start Blake Griffin at the 5 with Randolph holding the 4. The illustrious Marcus Camby. Or the uber potential laden DeAndre Jordan could easily fill minutes at the 5. We dont need Kaman as much as we need a tall guy who can catch a pass and doesnt look lost when he has the ball in his hands. Id also love a more aggressive center.
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pel Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
By the time camby’s gone, defensively, do you want a guy like Randolph or Griffin who aren’t good shot blockers to be guarding guys like yao and shaq?
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bongstradamus Reply:
June 18th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Is it really outside the realm of possibility that a guy who averaged a 20/10 in college could forseeably get 1.3 blocks per game? The kid is young, Camby is old and not a long term peice, yes I would give Blake more minutes to accelerate his development. There is only 1 Shaq and 1 Yao in the league and the rest are a bunch of creampuffs in comparison.
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Clipper Speakeasy Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 11:36 pm
Dunleavy still has Cheikh Samb and Paul Davis on speed dial.
Seriously, if we’re out of playoff contention at the ASB and deal Camby, why shouldn’t we give Jordan the bulk of the minutes for the remainder?
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
What do you guys think about Camby for T-Mac? I like it a lot let’s make it happen.
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bongstradamus Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
I wouldnt touch T-Mac with a 20 foot pole. He sucks up your salary cap and gets injured when you need him most. He’s physically cooked at 30 and has no history of winning. Let Houston keep him.
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Clipper Speakeasy Reply:
June 16th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
No.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Hey, SOMEONEWITHSOMEKINDOFSTICKUPHISASS, or whatever clever name your mother came up with for you…you don’t know shit dude. Kaman is a borderline retardo. He’s a nut job. If you think he’s the saviour of this team you are gonna be really let down. He can work out 10 hours a day and lose 40 pounds and he’ll still have the IQ of a rabbit turd. Wake up bro…your mama is callin’.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I agree with steve perrin in that if a smart trade doesn’t come up for randolph, we don’t have to trade him immediately. I was looking at this article on randolph, “http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/02/sports/basketball/02randolph.html” ,and the way i interpret some of the mistakes he’s made is that he has some alcoholic problems, in portland he punched a criminal and tried to protect a family member from the police, which i know many people would do, and with the clippers he “slapped” some overly-aggresive suns player after he just found out his dad was terminially ill. I think he needs to go to some anger management classes and some AA meetings, but i don’t think he’s the kind of “criminal” most people think he is. If we can’t find a good trade for him this offseason, we don’t have to be despserate to get rid of him.
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bongstradamus Reply:
June 17th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
I really kinda let the Amundson thing go. He got decked by another player like 2 weeks after the Zach incident. It could be that Amundson just talks too much smack on the floor and brought it on himself. Yes, its a lack of professionalism to snap like that, but apparently the guys kind of a douche.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Randolph gives the team 20 pts and 10 rbs. Sometimes 35 pts and 12 rbs. Yes he might be soft on defense but thats where team defense helps. What Zach should work on is shot selection , especially 3’s . I have liked Kaman since he came into the league. I have the rookie challenge on dvd where he played against the sophomores. CK has always seemed like a serviceable center, just not a 10M per year center. When looking at the salaries of other nba centers, Kaman is not the worst talent.
With the arrival and anticipation of Blake Griffin’s game , Camby could bring in a 3 or 1 that would improve the team.
Let Dunleavy enjoy his two purchases ZR & CK till his contract expires. If LA comes out ready and determined right from the start ; meaning BD is back to form, CK is focused,the younger guys get better and The coach has an epiphany, I feel strongly that staying .500 is within reach.
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rocket Reply:
June 18th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
The only problem with team defense covering Randolph is that Randolph is the guy that was supposed to cover other people. He’s the big guy, the guy that’s supposed to be the last wall (the PF and the C) between the scorer and the basket.
That’s the problem with Randolph. A PF (and C) are supposed to cover the paint. If you don’t cover the paint, you will have the least chances of winning. Covering the paint is perhaps the most important part of winning a basketball game, defense wise. That’s why Randolph’s D is so important that without it, no team wants him. Well, except for the Clips. He’s a good guy, but he needs to step up on D.
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bongstradamus Reply:
June 19th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Yea you can kinda slack on a wing with team D as long as the interior is covered. The wing is more lower percentage, if you could choose where to force a team to shoot it would be outside. By not playing good D at the 4 you are basically begging teams to work you in the paint which is high percentage city.
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Posted on June 16th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Has anyone else noticed that Conan rags on the Clips every fucking day?
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Posted on June 17th, 2009 at 12:08 am
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