Based on the Clippers recent free agent targets, it’s natural to assume that the guard position is the biggest need. After all, the Clippers only have 3 *true* guards on their roster, and all we’ve heard for the last month is an overload of Sessions talk mixed with an occasional A.I. flare up. The acquiring of a defensive minded wing, for the time being, has apparently drifted out of focus.
Management has done nothing thus far to address the glaring needs on the wing, and Dunleavy appears content with starting Al Thornton again next year. Thornton played the lion’s share of the minutes last year at small forward, so let’s take a look at the Clippers production by position numbers compiled by 82games.com.
Net Production by Position (2008)
| Position | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| PG | 3.5 | -.085 | 0.5 | 2% | 0.4 | -0.0 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.8 | -2.9 |
| SG | -2.2 | -.010 | -0.2 | 5% | -2.0 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -3.8 |
| SF | -1.1 | -.032 | -0.6 | -3% | -2.4 | -1.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -4.7 |
| PF | -0.1 | +.000 | -1.3 | -8% | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.2 | -1.1 | -2.3 |
| C | -1.4 | -.020 | -0.8 | -2% | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -3.1 | -2.6 |
The first thing that pops out at you is how absolutely atrocious the shot selection of Baron Davis was last year, but you likely didn’t need a chart to come to that conclusion. The next thing that jumps off the page is all the negatives in the small forward column. The Clippers small forwards last year got out rebounded by a margin of 2.4 rebounds per game, and the shooting guards weren’t much better, losing the rebounding battle by 2 rebounds a game. That’s a -4.4 rebounding margin on the wing, which is absolutely awful. Eric Gordon is an expected poor rebounder at 6’3, but Al Thornton has all the physical tools to at least be serviceable. Instead, he’s one of the worst in the league at his position. The Clippers small forwards assist margin was the worst of the 5 positions. The small forwards also got outscored by opponents to the tune of 2.8 points a game, which was the second worst position total on the team. Hollinger’s PER system is less than perfect, but it is telling that the Clippers’ small forwards were 4.7 PER points worse than the opposition, which was by far the lowest total of the 5 positions. Based on these stats, the small forward position was where the Clippers were outmatched most often last season.
Going forward, Gordon will desperately need a good rebounder and defender on the wing next to him to cover up for his lack of size. Al Thornton doesn’t appear to be that guy, as his skills just don’t seem to mesh well with the rest of the young core. If the Clippers are serious about contending this year and in the future, they simply have to upgrade the starting small forward position. Players who are primarily scorers at the small forward position just aren’t on championship caliber teams. Looking back at the NBA Champions of this decade reveals a slew of starting defensive minded small forwards:
Los Angeles Lakers, 2000 – Glen Rice was the starter, but Rick Fox played a valuable defensive role off the bench.
Los Angeles Lakers, 2001 – Rick Fox
Los Angeles Lakers, 2002 – Rick Fox and Devean George
San Antonio Spurs, 2003 – Bruce Bowen
Detroit Pistons, 2004 – Tayshaun Prince
San Antonio Spurs, 2005 – Bruce Bowen
Miami Heat, 2006 – James Posey
San Antonio Spurs, 2007 – Bruce Bowen
Boston Celtics, 2008 - Paul Pierce was the starter, but James Posey played lots of crucial minutes.
Los Angeles Lakers, 2009 – Trevor Ariza
What do all these players have in common? First, they all have the height (6’7 or above) to shut down every type of perimeter player. Second, they can all knock down the corner 3 with consistency. It’s overly simplistic, but that’s basically the requirements of a “glue guy”. Al Thornton, despite his immense talent, currently meets neither of these requirements.
The promising thing for the Clippers is that “glue guys” can be found anywhere. Bruce Bowen bounced around the league and played for 4 different teams before finally landing in San Antonio. James Posey followed the same path as well, playing for 4 different teams before landing in Miami. Devean George was drafted out of a Division III college. Trevor Ariza was acquired last season for Brian freaking Cook.
Some Clippers fans believe that wing player Mardy Collins can fill that defensive role for this team. Collins may be a good enough defender, but he’ll need to develop something that at least resembles a jumper before reaching true “glue guy” status. Witness:
In his nine games as a Los Angeles Clipper, Collins has taken 29 shot attempts from the floor. Only ten of them have been successful, while 13 of the 29 haven’t drawn iron. -December 15th, 2008.
Mardy Collins, and for that matter, Al Thornton, may eventually develop into prominent defensive stoppers with the ability to stretch the defense, but both clearly have a long way to go.
So where is the next championship level perimeter defender and shooter hiding? He could be anywhere…but the Clippers will never find him unless they start looking.
36 Responses
SG numbers don’t look all that much greater either. EG needs to step it up next season as well.
Posted on August 8th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
All the numbers are basically negative for every position. That’s what happens when you field a terrible, unwatchable team. SF doesn’t stand out. Look at PF and SG.
Get off the guy’s back, he played on an aweful mess of a team last year and he regressed. He forgot how to shoot. I blame it on the pitiful and dysfunctional team and terrible coaching staff. He can become a really good player. He was amazing his rookie year.
Deavan George! LOL! One of the worst, if not the worst, players in the NBA who had absolutely no value on any team he ever played for is stated to be an important “glue guy.” That’s a huge fat joke.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 12:33 am
Mike – Al Thornton didn’t have an amazing rookie year. We were impressed with his athleticism; however, when you compare him to other players at the same position, he was below average.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 12:47 am
Al played power forward for pretty much his entire rookie year. Last year was his first as SF. I saw some progress towards the end of the year. Either way, it seems to me that Dunleavy believes in Al so I doubt any change at SF will happen without some kind of amazing offer coming our way.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 8:29 am
Clippers interst in SESSIONS only proves their eagerness to get rid of BARON DAVIS. If that’s not the case, they should be content with BARON, GORDON, COLLINS and TELFAIR.
john Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I see where you’re coming from…but I don’t think this is necessarily true. Both sessions and davis can play off the ball, so we could see a three guard rotation of davis, sessions and gordon. Undersized, but otherwise a very dangerous backcourt.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 9:52 am
FYI Pierce was starting SF on Boston’s championship run.
john Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Truth
D.J. Foster Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Good catch, spaced that one.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
here’s a thought. attempt to trade kaman for gerald wallace or trade him for prince, then try to get amare stod. in free agency as the new center.
not to be all think of the roster we would have, but think of the roster we would have.
Ian Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
You guys complain about Baron’s shot selection and indifference to defense but want AMARE? Have you seen him play?
pel Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Amare is one of the most efficient players in the game, and he’s mainly not a good defender because of a lack of effort
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
i was hoping the kaman/wallace trade wouldve went down last year but since they have tyson chandler i dont see it happening. prince maybe and sign Bosh as the starting Center. heres a look at the lineup
davis
gordon
prince
griffin
bosh
playoffs.
pel Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
bosh is cool but he isn’t strong enough to guard centers. amare is a lot stronger and with some goggles, he wont break down like bosh would as a center. Also, i heard from the tyson/emeka trade that charlotte wants to play tyson some minutes as a pf and if they wanted kaman with okafor on board, why not chandler.
bongstradamus Reply:
August 11th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Bosh has the IQ and the charisma though. Sure he’s undersized against Shaq and Yao and maybe Amare, but he can play center/pf against most anyone in the league except the behemoths.
But theres really no comparing Chris Bosh to Amare Stoudemire. Its like having a spelling bee between a MENSA kid and a retard, Bosh totally kills Amare in that department. Id much rather have smart players that play hard, than dumb players that flail about wildly and still cant seem to put 2 and 2 together most nights.
Amare looked like a beast when he was drafted. And he was physically ready to play the game. But he already thinks he’s a hall of famer and has become complacent about winning and more concerned with getting paid and being the center of attention on the court. When Amare realizes that he needs to become a student of the game and not just an employee of a team, then maybe he will start to tap all that potential we saw in him originally.
Until then, I’ll take Bosh over any other F/C in the league.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
I would love to see Kaman go. He is a quitter with multiple bull#### injuries and his head is never in the game. He has some talent but is incapable of using it. He can’t even finish a layup at the hoop, and I don’t believe he has far to shoot. I used to like the guy but I can’t stand him anymore after watching him mail in last season. There is something to be said for a guy with some toughness who gives it his all on the court and plays through injury.
john Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
I’m not quite ready to quit on Kaman…but I would prefer to hear stories about him working out in the offseason rather than him seemingly doing anything but basketball. If he doesn’t pull it together this season, I’m done.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Ditto on Kaman. Cut him loose for a good back-up three/two player and bring back Camby for cheap if you can. Isn’t Wallace a poor defender?
Definitely have to give Al more time. Great athleticism and seemingly the will to get better. His work ethic and upside is way better than Kaman’s. The issues with Baron and Kaman are way greater than Al, not to mention we are spending a fortune on those guys.
Can someone do the math on what the “adjusted” PER is based on SALARY so that we can put Al’s performance into a different light relative to the rest of the team?
Mungo Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
“Isn’t Wallace a poor defender?”
Hell no, Wallace is a quality defender. A bit reckless sometimes, goes for the unlikely block a bit too often, but most of the time he’s fine. As pointed out above, Bobcats have traded for a true center now, and we’ve cleared some of our frontcourt logjam, so the most obvious way of acquiring Wallace has disappeared. I’ve all but given up on it.
It’s definitely true that Al does not appear to lack in work ethic, and that his salary is still extremely reasonable. His work on both sides of the ball does suggest a fairly low “basketball IQ” though. I think even if he grafted his ass off to drag his defense and rebounding up to average, he still wouldn’t be ideally what we’re looking for, as we need someone to make up for the shortfall in those areas that is always going to be present in Gordon’s game as an undersized 2. This is, of course, assuming that Thornton doesn’t become a more valuable offensive player than Gordon.
I certainly wouldn’t lump Al in the same category as Baron and Kaman, who can both be reasonably accused of being overpaid and undercommitted. It just seems to me that we should work towards the goal of having him as a sixth man. I think his particular talents and style coming off the bench could be devastatingly effective.
Ian Reply:
August 9th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
While he might be a good 6th man for a lower playoff seed, the prospect of having Al log major minutes for a wannabe contender is an unfavorable one. He’s one of those guys who really only maximizes his potential on O if he’s got the ball in his hands, unfortunately, when the balls in his hands he’s just an O.K. scorer and is somewhat turnover prone… thus, you don’t really want him to have the ball too often. He’s a poor “space the floor shooter” & doesn’t have the b-ball IQ to be a good cutter, so you’ll never want him starting for a GOOD team (bc a good team typically will have better players than him, thus, the ball wont be in his hands much). All of this would be far more excusable if he weren’t terrible at defending, passing & rebounding.
As a 6th man though, he’d likely be one of the better scorers on the floor and his offensive efficiency would be a great deal better.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Enough with bashing Al- he was one of the two guts who played& never quit on the team while the overpaid primadonnas whined and pouted. He needs more time and to be surrounded with guys who have the heart to win!!!
I totally agree about kaman-wasted talent-way overpaid.
Chris. Reply:
August 11th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Thank you! Al & Gordon are the only two youngsters who never mailed in the season and gave it 100% on the court. Al deserves more respect than that from fans. Bash Kaman all you want, I want to give him 1 more chance. Al deserves better than this from the same people who were praising him as the savior after his rookie season when our team sucked and gave up at the end too and he never did, he took over games and got us some wins.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
the only time i was a kaman fan was during the soph/rookie game and when he had his breakout year when EB went down. if kaman were 2 have that same injury on a different team i bet he wouldve played a lot sooner. The cave man can continue filming those geico commercials.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Mardy Collins is nothing. The truth is he should be bought out to free up a roster spot. Since my expectations for this season are low anyway and we aren’t going to be competing for anything, I’m willing to see what improvements Al makes in his third year before I decide whether I’m in the crowd that wants him on the bench or even gone, or with those who believe he’s in our future.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
joe johnson in 2010, anyone?
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Don’t forget how many games both Kaman and Camby missed last year. We can’t expect them both to be healthy all year…meaning we can’t trade one of them.
bongstradamus Reply:
August 11th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Kamans the hardest to move. Hes got that nasty trade kicker and more years on his deal.
If anyone leaves, itll be Camby because hes the most appealing financially and physically.
I’d be pretty impressed if Dun could move Kaman. I mean I thought Z-Bo was untradeable and he managed to do it. So I could be wrong about Kaman getting moved but if I were to bet money, i’d probably throw some down on Kaman staying the whole season.
Posted on August 9th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
joe johnson would be great but azubuike would be ok but LeBron would blow up LA.
Gordon for President Reply:
August 10th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
If LeBron leaves CLE, and that’s a big IF, no way he goes to New York or New Jersey. The Knicks have no talent and not enough caproom, and the Nets are stuck in limbo as the Brooklyn seems less and less likely. He’ll never go to MIA to play on someone else’s (ahem Wade’s) team. LAC becomes the only viable option if he wants to be a global icon. Jordan played in CHI, Kobe plays in LA. It’s a major market with enough young talent to be good immediately. It’s a pipedream, but it can definitely happen. We just need to dump Kaman or Baron by midseason.
And Nike and Stern should be salivating over a nightly Battle for Los Angeles between Kobe and LBJ.
bongstradamus Reply:
August 11th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Just because we are in a major market doesnt mean LeBron would consider playing for our team.
NY is the largest market, and LeBron is an entrepreneur as well as a basketball stud. He will have more opportunities for big big money deals in NY without having to compete for spotlight with Kobe. And im not talking just big money contracts, but big money marketing/advertising deals. He’ll be playing a few blocks away from Madison Avenue.
No matter what the state of the Knicks, they are infinitely more appealling for a player like LeBron than us. Theyve got Coach D’Antoni and Donnie Walsh, two of the most highly respected basketball professionals in the world. Its the largest stage, theyve got an owner with deep pockets that isnt afraid to take risks with his team and signing big players. Sure their roster is a little light at the moment, but ultimately, the Knicks are about winning and spending their way to winning. They are one of the most storied and beloved franchises in the game. They have an appeal and mystique about them that we will never have until we win a championship and have shown we have what it takes to compete.
And that is why LeBron would leave max money in Cleveland to sign with NY next season. LeBron doesnt play for a paycheck, he plays to become part of history.
Quit talkin about LeBron becoming a Clipper because it wont happen. The Pacers and Bobcats have a better chance of signing him than we do.
Gordon for President Reply:
August 11th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Wow. Donnie Walsh one of the most respected in the game? What does he have to his name but a LONE Finals appearance where his Pacers were the sacrficial lamb to whoever won the West?
“but ultimately, the Knicks are about winning and spending their way to winning”
Are you kidding? They’ve been spending their way to winning for the last decade, and what do they have to show for it? Walsh has hamstrung the franchise with a CHANCE to nab LeBron and another player. Any Knick fan should be pissed he’s wasting two entire years chasing a dream that will ultimately backfire with the decreasing salary cap.
If the Clippers sneak into the playoffs with 45 wins or so, there’s definitely a chance. Having the number one pick will also force people to watch the team, and EJ’s profile should be raised enormously.
Why would anyone pick to play on a barebones roster featuring David Lee when they can join a core of EJ and BJ?
Pessimism sucks, dude.
bongstradamus Reply:
August 11th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
No I am not kidding, half of NY’s problems have been spending too much for FA’s. Antonio McDyess, Eddie Curry, Z-Bo, Marbury, Francis, Allan Houston, Marcus Camby, etc etc. The Knicks sometimes dont make the smartest decisions, but they are ready to put down serious cash when they value someone. That has never changed. They want to be competitive. They had a 10 year stretch of selling out their arena. They have history. People grow up hearing stories about the Knicks. They have a mystique about them that makes people want to play for them. The Knicks have done everything they can to show LeBron that they want him, that they value him, and that their fans want him there. We’re just the Clippers. We’ve been to the playoffs…a couple times. Woot! Our owner is a slum-lord.
Maybe Donnie does get a little too much credit for picking Reggie Miller and Danny Granger or for ripping Portland off in the Jermaine O’Neal deal. Nonetheless he managed a small market team and got them to the big dance. Even though the Knicks have tanked the last 2 seasons, theyve unburdened themselves of both Marbury and the Z-Bo deal, putting them in prime position to land a bonafide talent next year.
Sometimes you leverage two years of a franchise in order to turn around its fortunes. NY holding steady to get themselves into a position to score LeBron is the smartest thing they could do.
If David Lee was part of the Knicks future, theyd have signed him already. He’s a stand-in till other plans become available. If there was a list of most likely to get signed and traded, David Lee is in the top 3. Bosh or Boozer on the Knicks makes them look even better to LeBron.
Im not being a pessimist, just being a realist. We might be able to offer him a salary, but if I was an NBA player I wouldnt want to come here. Sure we have EJ and BG, but who says theyll want to stay when they come up as RFA’s and FAs? And who says LeBron wants to play with a bunch of youngsters in the first place? If I was Dwyane or Chris Bosh and i had the chance to play with LeBron on the Knicks but id only get 10m a year versus being on the Clippers for 16m, i’d choose to play with LeBron. I know I’d have a better chance of winning.
John Reply:
August 12th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Well thought out post, bong.
I don’t think you can entirely discount the possibility of Lebron coming to the Clippers.
There are a lot of ‘ifs’ in any 2010 speculation, of course. IF New York is able to lure a other top talent to play with Lebron they could be a very attractive destination. If he leaves Cleveland it’ll be because they didn’t win again, and winning will have to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest lure for him.
However, IF NY isn’t able to get a Chris Bosh or a Dwyane Wade, or other top talent, which is very likely, why would Lebron want to go to a team which is worse than his own Cavs? I understand the NY market etc. etc….but he will not want to join another rebuilding process.
New Jersey could still be a good possibility. They have a lot of good young talent in lopez, harris and lee.
As for LAC, Lebron is a young dude. When he entered the league, the Clippers were pretty good. They’ve been pretty good for most of his pro career. I don’t think the historical fact that “they’re the clippers” will detract him…because he knows that the Clippers with LBJ are a whole different animal.
IF LAC trades Kaman or Davis in order to have cap room to pay Lebron, and he can join the DJ, BG, EG and RS(*IF) core, in a giant market in a great city with the chance to completely and immediately dominate, I don’t see why he doesn’t at least consider it.
bongstradamus Reply:
August 13th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Here’s the biggest reason why it goes beyond just being the Clippers:
We have NEVER signed a legit Free Agent. Ever. Cat Mobley doesnt count. Elton was a match. Corey was a match. But NEVER have we ever gotten a top tier free agent to come to LAC. The only time this team has spent money was when Elton and Corey were about to leave to Utah and Miami.
Gordon for President Reply:
August 12th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I wouldn’t say you’re totally off, but realistically speaking why would Bosh or Wade sacrifice as much as 6 million or more a year to win? They’re in the prime of their careers, or just entering them. It takes more than two stars to win, NYK will be cashing out every player to get them. It doesn’t seem realistic, and IMO, never was. No seems to mention that MIA will be able tp pay Wade AND a max free agent when Jermaine O’Neals 20 million comes off the books. I see Bosh joining Wade in South Beach.
Posted on August 10th, 2009 at 1:55 am
Lebron can not win a championship by himself. See last season’s eastern conf. finals .Whether its Baron or Sessions at PG, Having Gordon on the wing,BG inside and (Gulp!) Kaman at center, Clippers have talent. More so than Miami,New york,New Jersey and who ever else.
Posted on August 11th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
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