I’d read recently on Kevin Pelton’s Statistical Analysis Primer that “Effective Field-Goal Percentage was invented by current L.A. Clippers Coach Mike Dunleavy.”

Dunleavy as statistical innovator came as some surprise because the Clippers aren’t regarded as an organization on the vanguard of advanced analytics. By Dunleavy’s own admission, he wasn’t looking to glean any rarefied knowledge about the basketball universe when he came up with effective field goal percentage. He was just trying to negotiate a fair contract in the latter half of his playing career.

The way Dunleavy tells the story, this was in the early 80s, when Dunleavey was negotiating his own contract.

“I’m doing my own deal with this general manager,” Dunleavy said. “I asked for whatever I asked for and he offered me like half of that.”

Dunleavy declined to say which team or general manager he was negotiating with, but remembered the conversation with the executive vividly.

“He says, ‘your numbers are good, but they aren’t great,’” Dunleavy said. “So I went away and started thinking about it.  I look at the other guys getting paid. And I’m thinking, ‘I’m making these 3s, which are one-and-a-half times a regular shot.’”

Dunleavy became a 3-point specialist a few years into his career. With San Antonio in 1982-83 he led the NBA in both shots made beyond the arc (67) and 3-point percentage (34.5%). But the added value of a 3-pointer isn’t factored into basic field goal percentage.

“So I took all my 3-point field goals divided by two, and added those to my amount of field goals,” Dunleavy said. “I went to the guy and said, ‘Okay, I shoot 47 percent. But if I shot 52 or 53 percent, what would I be worth?’”

Dunleavy put what he referred to as his “effective field goal percentage” figures on the table, and the two sides ultimately came to an agreement.

“I didn’t get all of what I asked for,” Dunleavy said. “But I got more.”

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• Blake Griffin sat out practice with a bruised left patella. It appears to be nothing serious, and there was no visible swelling on his knee. He spent the morning working out on the elliptical machine and the like.
• The Clippers have a 15th roster spot if they’re wowed by Anthony Roberson, Kareem Rush, Taj Gray and Jerel McNeal, the non-roster invitees in camp. “You’re always looking for shooting,” Dunleavy said. If the Clippers do add a 15th player — improbable but not impossible — it would likely be a 2 guard who can fill it up from the outside. Roberson certainly fits that description. The problem with him is that he’s useless once you chase him off the line.
• The staff is bullish on Chris Kaman. “He looks great,” said Dunleavy. “[Clippers assistant coach] John Lucas just said to me, ‘Wow! That guy is really good. He can shoot hooks, jump hooks, left hand, right hand, 18-foot jump shots.’ I said, ‘Yeah, I know.  He’s got all the tools.’” For Dunleavy, the challenge with Chris hasn’t changed much since the center’s first day in the league: [1] “One dribble, then make your move.” [2] Reads on the double-team, and the ability to make the pass.
• The guys in best shape coming into camp, according to Dunleavy: Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon.
• Blake Griffin’s MVPs for the first day of practice: Rasual Butler, Sebastian Telfair and DeAndre Jordan.

An NBA team’s media day isn’t unlike the first day of school. Although nothing of consequence happens, the two-hour photo shoot and schmoozefest mark the start of the NBA season. The official training camp roster is handed out like a syllabus. Players and beat writers who haven’t seen one another in months exchange hugs. And from this day on, each rostered player is the property of his NBA team. Voluntary workouts are now mandatory, and the real basketball course work begins.

A few observations from Staples Center:

Blake Griffin: Controlling the floor at Staples (Photo by Kevin Arnovitz/Clipperblog)

The Clippers open their preseason schedule Sunday evening in Oakland against Golden State.

K.A. ran a post over at TrueHoop today where he experiments with Brett Hainline’s new efficiency swap machine:

Yesterday, we made mention of Brett Hainline’s swap machine, which uses a player’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to determine how swapping one player out for another would improve your team’s overall performance.

Once Hainline went live with it, I immediately did what any Los Angeles Clippers fan would do — nixed the uniquely inefficient Al Thornton from the starting lineup. To fill Thornton’s place at small forward, I opted for efficiency poster boy Shane Battier.

It’s important to keep in mind that with salary cap restraints, such a trade would be impossible in the real world, but I was more interested in approximating how much better would the Clippers be with a player of Battier’s mold on the wing.

The results were fascinating. Queen City Hoops estimates that the Clippers would be 10 games better with Battier in Thornton’s place. Here’s QCH’s breakdown:

To better understand how the Clippers pick up those additional 10 wins, I asked Hainline to walk me through what all this stuff means:

We are looking at both ends of the small forward spectrum: Al Thornton is a high-volume yet inefficient scorer who plays little defense. Shane Battier is regarded as one of the league’s best defenders while being an ancillary player offensively, taking few shots but converting them at a high rate. My fascination with Allen Iverson aside, it frustrates me to see players recognized as being great when all they are really doing is shooting a lot (remember Adam Morrison making the All-Rookie team?). That pet peeve of mine makes this opportunity all the sweeter — this is a chance to show what kind of impact those players really make.

The first table shows actual statistics from last season. The efficiencies shown are for their respective teams: When Al is on the court for the Clippers, they had a net efficiency of -10.5, but with him off the court, they actually improved to -7.4. The reverse was true in Houston, as Shane helped the Rockets to a +4.9 mark, but that number dipped to +2.8 when Shane was on the pine. The last four columns are individual statistics.

From those numbers, we can estimate how another player would impact a team by replacing someone. By taking the on court efficiencies of the Clippers, and the respective numbers for Al and Shane, we get the numbers you see in the first row of the second table.  Notice a significant boost on both sides of the ball, as their offensive efficiency is predicted to rise by 2.4 points and their defensive efficiency is expected to decline by 2.6.  Here is how we got there:

• Offensively, Al Thornton used a large chunk of his team’s possessions, but was using them at a rate below that of his teammates – his 23.4 points from 23.1 possessions works out to an efficiency of 101.3, meaning his teammates were the ones boosting that offensive work.
• Shane was a low usage player in Houston, but if he replaced a player in a higher usage position, he might be called on to take some more scoring load.  That is what the final term in the second equation is estimating: The difference in possessions used between the two players (23.1 – 9.7) is multiplied by the efficiency of Thornton’s remaining teammates [(101.8 - 23.4) divided by (100 - 23.1) = 102.0] averaged with Battier’s scoring efficiency [(11.2 / 9.7) = 115.5].
• Defensively, we something similar, but this time the players are nearly identical in the possessions used category, so the improvement in defensive efficiency is almost entirely attributable to the improvement Shane represents.

That gives us an estimate of what to expect with Shane on the court for the Clippers — a 27 win team. It’s not great, but it’s 10 more games than when Thornton was lacing them up for them.

But what about when Shane is not on the court? With injuries and age being a concern, we should account for the fact that Shane played over 600 minutes less than Thornton did last season, and that is what the final three rows look at. They’re estimates of the team’s overall efficiencies, including time with Shane on and off the court — their whole season in other words.

The initial row projects Shane to just use up all of Thornton’s minutes, meaning the now less efficient off-court numbers are used the same amount as they were last season for the Clippers. Given the estimated improvement the Clippers could see with Shane on the court replacing Al, and the same amount of minutes going to the “bench,” a weighted average of the on court and off court numbers puts the Clippers with an overall net efficiency of -6.1, good for 25 wins, which is still significantly better than their actual numbers from last year.

However, what if Shane really does need to play fewer minutes?  Due to age and injuries, he may be good for 2000 and no more. Well, the bench picks up those minutes, so instead of 1300 minutes going to a -7.4 efficiency group, they get 1900 minutes. 1900 minutes to a -7.4, 2000 to a -5.5, and the Clippers project to an overall efficiency of -6.4, dropping another win from total.

The final row describes the case where the Clippers need more minutes from Shane than he could provide in Houston, and he obliges, but his knees still won’t let him get all the way to Al’s minutes. So, we say 2300 minutes with Shane on, 1600 with him off, and we get a -6.3 efficiency for the Clippers on the season, and they get back to 25 wins.

The notion of a replacement player will always be far dicier in basketball than it is in a sport like baseball, where a variable such as “plate appearance” is relatively easy to isolate. As Hainline explains, comparing two players is far more complicated than handing one guy’s minutes to another. No two players’ minutes are alike. The instant you place Battier on the floor for Thornton, you immediately increase the offensive roles of Eric Gordon, Baron Davis and Chris Kaman, to say nothing about the team’s increased reliance on its bench because Thornton, for all his failings, is a more durable player than Battier.

For an infinite supply of amusement, go to Queen City Hoops and assume the role of basketball Zeus.

From Lisa Dillman of the Los Angeles Times:

The idea of hiring John Lucas had been percolating in Mike Dunleavy’s mind for quite a while, and finally it came time to put it out there.

“It was one of those ideas,” said Dunleavy, the Clippers’ general manager and coach. “Hey, unless I ask him, I won’t know.”

Dunleavy said Thursday morning that Lucas, a respected former NBA player and coach, was at the team’s offices in Playa Vista and would be joining the Clippers’ coaching staff.

Lucas has a long-standing relationship with Dunleavy, and many of the current Clippers have worked out with Lucas at his Houston base.

“We talk all the time and we’ve always stayed in touch,” Dunleavy said. “It was just one of those situations where I started thinking about guys who were available. Guys that were really good who have a lot of energy.

“So I called him. He said, ‘I wouldn’t do this for a lot of guys. Yeah, I will. For you, I’ll come.’ ”

Dunleavy said that the agreement would be for one year.

Lucas’ head coaching record in the NBA was 174-258 at stops in San Antonio, Philadelphia and Cleveland.

It’s impossible to overstate how great of an addition John Lucas is to the Clippers coaching staff. Lucas is highly respected among players and personnel alike, and has a reputation around the NBA as being one of the premier developers of talent and one of the best educators the league has.

If you’re looking for some proof to these statements, look no further than K.A.’s recent profile of Lucas and the work he is performing with the troubled Michael Beasley. The amount of patience, motivation, and support that are required to help a recovering addict is unbelievable, but Lucas has all the tools and has rightly devoted his life and talents to helping others. If there was ever a person overqualified for being an assistant basketball coach, Lucas is it.

Remember that teacher you had in high school that you really liked? Remember how bad it felt to miss a homework assignment, or do poorly on a test in that teacher’s class? You just hated to let that person down, and the feeling that struck you when you did made you never want to do it again. John Lucas is that teacher. Motivation isn’t always about fancy speeches or crazy tactics; sometimes it’s as easy as earning the respect of your players. It’s not unlikely to see athletes associated with John Lucas run through walls for him, simply because they respect him and don’t want to let him down.

The stories about Lucas and his great motivational skills are everywhere. Considering his work with T.J. Ford, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, and his own son, there are no shortage of believers in Lucas’ talents as a coach and trainer. Lucas has the pedigree of a fine basketball coach; the playing background (former #1 pick in 1976), the educational background (Masters in Education), the experience (432 games as a head coach), but most importantly, the mental makeup.

Doubters of Lucas will point to his poor head coaching track record, but those numbers deserve further inspection. In Lucas’ first two coaching seasons (one interim, one full time) he compiled an overall record of 94-49 with the David Robinson led Spurs in 93 and 94. The Spurs were a talented team, and Lucas did a fine job leading that talent in those two years. Due to an early playoff exit in 94, Lucas would be let go and move on to one of the worst teams in the NBA; the pre-Iverson Philadelphia 76ers. The love child of Red Auerbach and Vince Lombardi wouldn’t have led that collection of players to the playoffs, but still, Lucas was let go after two years. Lucas wouldn’t get another head coaching gig until he partnered up with the pre-Lebron era Cleveland Cavaliers in 2001, another terrible team devoid of any real talent. Again, there probably isn’t a coach out there who could lead those teams to anything but losing records. So while Lucas’ career record isn’t impressive, it would be foolish to label the man a poor coach because he had some bad stints with some truly terrible teams. A successful head coach record is hardly a requisite for being a successful assistant in the league anyway.

Anytime you can bring on a man who regularly trains some of the league’s top talent on to your coaching staff, it’s a no-brainer. Dunleavy is widely regarded as a good X’s and O’s guy, but isn’t much of a “players coach”. Regardless of whether or not you believe in the good cop – bad cop strategy, it’s still pretty easy to see that Lucas will relate with players better than a dual title, overworked Dunleavy could. For a young team, having an outlet other than the head coach is important, and no one understands the potential pitfalls the NBA life presents young men with better than Lucas. Even if Lucas brings nothing to the table from a basketball perspective (which obviously won’t be true), his role as a mentor, confidant, and counselor to the some of the younger and/or troubled Clippers is valuable. Adding Lucas to the staff, who already has relationships with some of the current Clippers roster and staff, is simply a steal.

Maybe an overlooked as aspect in this signing is that Lucas is a new face on the Clippers staff. The mind of a basketball player, especially one who endured a season like 10 of the 14 Clippers players did last year, is complex. From a player perspective, it’s often easy to assume that the coaching staff doesn’t appreciate your talent, that you should play more or get X more amount of shots, and that the staff may simply not like you. A new coach on the staff offers players with this convoluted view a fresh start and a chance to get someone in their corner. Everyone learns and is reached in different ways, and it’s hard to say that the Clippers staff has anyone remotely similar to Lucas on it.

Many people close to the team speculated that Dunleavy lost control of the team and was largely tuned out by players last year. If that is indeed true, then maybe Lucas can help rein some of those players back in. Judging from Lucas’  prior life experiences and track record, that task should be nothing more than a walk in the park.

From NBA.com:

The Los Angeles Clippers today re-signed unrestricted free agent forward Brian Skinner. Per team policy terms of the contract were not released.

In 51 games played with the Clippers last season, Skinner averaged 4.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and 16.5 minutes per game. Over his 11 year NBA career, Skinner has tallied 4.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 18.3 minutes per game.

On June 30th, the Clippers announced that Skinner had decided not to exercise his player contract option for the 2009-10 NBA season, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Skinner was originally drafted by the Clippers in the first round (22nd overall) of the 1998 NBA Draft.

Earlier this summer, Skinner declined his player option to become an unrestricted free agent in the open market, but likely found that his services weren’t in high demand.

The minimum salary for a veteran free agent with ten years of service or greater is $1,306,455, so it’s hard to imagine Skinner’s cap number being much more than that. Skinner originally declining his option was a bit of a calculated risk on his part- he was penned to make 1.3 million if he stayed with the Clippers in the first place, so testing the waters cost him no money as long as he could find a home back with Los Angeles. Skinner presumably sweated out the Ramon Sessions race with the rest of us, but once that was finalized and Novak was brought back, there was an open spot to welcome Skinner (yet again) back to the Clippers.

Skinner is a marginal role player, and barring injuries probably wont see the floor much for the Clippers. Last year, especially late in the season, Skinner played extensively over the raw yet extremely talented DeAndre Jordan, much to the frustration of fans and analysts alike. Jordan has now likely leapfrogged Skinner on the depth chart, but the 33 year old still adds some needed insurance to a Clippers front line that is either habitually injured or in foul trouble.

Using the 14th roster spot on another big opposed to a backup point guard is a bit of a surprise, but the move may signal the faith Dunleavy has in Sebastian Telfair, and to some extent Mardy Collins. It’s still possible that Dunleavy brings in another guard as a 15th man, but at this point that seems somewhat unlikely. The roster appears to be set at 14, and this should be the last noteworthy transaction until training camp starts in just a few short weeks.