K.A. ran a post over at TrueHoop today where he experiments with Brett Hainline’s new efficiency swap machine:
Yesterday, we made mention of Brett Hainline’s swap machine, which uses a player’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to determine how swapping one player out for another would improve your team’s overall performance.
Once Hainline went live with it, I immediately did what any Los Angeles Clippers fan would do — nixed the uniquely inefficient Al Thornton from the starting lineup. To fill Thornton’s place at small forward, I opted for efficiency poster boy Shane Battier.
It’s important to keep in mind that with salary cap restraints, such a trade would be impossible in the real world, but I was more interested in approximating how much better would the Clippers be with a player of Battier’s mold on the wing.
The results were fascinating. Queen City Hoops estimates that the Clippers would be 10 games better with Battier in Thornton’s place. Here’s QCH’s breakdown:
To better understand how the Clippers pick up those additional 10 wins, I asked Hainline to walk me through what all this stuff means:
We are looking at both ends of the small forward spectrum: Al Thornton is a high-volume yet inefficient scorer who plays little defense. Shane Battier is regarded as one of the league’s best defenders while being an ancillary player offensively, taking few shots but converting them at a high rate. My fascination with Allen Iverson aside, it frustrates me to see players recognized as being great when all they are really doing is shooting a lot (remember Adam Morrison making the All-Rookie team?). That pet peeve of mine makes this opportunity all the sweeter — this is a chance to show what kind of impact those players really make.
The first table shows actual statistics from last season. The efficiencies shown are for their respective teams: When Al is on the court for the Clippers, they had a net efficiency of -10.5, but with him off the court, they actually improved to -7.4. The reverse was true in Houston, as Shane helped the Rockets to a +4.9 mark, but that number dipped to +2.8 when Shane was on the pine. The last four columns are individual statistics.
From those numbers, we can estimate how another player would impact a team by replacing someone. By taking the on court efficiencies of the Clippers, and the respective numbers for Al and Shane, we get the numbers you see in the first row of the second table. Notice a significant boost on both sides of the ball, as their offensive efficiency is predicted to rise by 2.4 points and their defensive efficiency is expected to decline by 2.6. Here is how we got there:
- Offensively, Al Thornton used a large chunk of his team’s possessions, but was using them at a rate below that of his teammates – his 23.4 points from 23.1 possessions works out to an efficiency of 101.3, meaning his teammates were the ones boosting that offensive work.
- Shane was a low usage player in Houston, but if he replaced a player in a higher usage position, he might be called on to take some more scoring load. That is what the final term in the second equation is estimating: The difference in possessions used between the two players (23.1 – 9.7) is multiplied by the efficiency of Thornton’s remaining teammates [(101.8 - 23.4) divided by (100 - 23.1) = 102.0] averaged with Battier’s scoring efficiency [(11.2 / 9.7) = 115.5].
- Defensively, we something similar, but this time the players are nearly identical in the possessions used category, so the improvement in defensive efficiency is almost entirely attributable to the improvement Shane represents.
That gives us an estimate of what to expect with Shane on the court for the Clippers — a 27 win team. It’s not great, but it’s 10 more games than when Thornton was lacing them up for them.
But what about when Shane is not on the court? With injuries and age being a concern, we should account for the fact that Shane played over 600 minutes less than Thornton did last season, and that is what the final three rows look at. They’re estimates of the team’s overall efficiencies, including time with Shane on and off the court — their whole season in other words.
The initial row projects Shane to just use up all of Thornton’s minutes, meaning the now less efficient off-court numbers are used the same amount as they were last season for the Clippers. Given the estimated improvement the Clippers could see with Shane on the court replacing Al, and the same amount of minutes going to the “bench,” a weighted average of the on court and off court numbers puts the Clippers with an overall net efficiency of -6.1, good for 25 wins, which is still significantly better than their actual numbers from last year.
However, what if Shane really does need to play fewer minutes? Due to age and injuries, he may be good for 2000 and no more. Well, the bench picks up those minutes, so instead of 1300 minutes going to a -7.4 efficiency group, they get 1900 minutes. 1900 minutes to a -7.4, 2000 to a -5.5, and the Clippers project to an overall efficiency of -6.4, dropping another win from total.
The final row describes the case where the Clippers need more minutes from Shane than he could provide in Houston, and he obliges, but his knees still won’t let him get all the way to Al’s minutes. So, we say 2300 minutes with Shane on, 1600 with him off, and we get a -6.3 efficiency for the Clippers on the season, and they get back to 25 wins.
The notion of a replacement player will always be far dicier in basketball than it is in a sport like baseball, where a variable such as “plate appearance” is relatively easy to isolate. As Hainline explains, comparing two players is far more complicated than handing one guy’s minutes to another. No two players’ minutes are alike. The instant you place Battier on the floor for Thornton, you immediately increase the offensive roles of Eric Gordon, Baron Davis and Chris Kaman, to say nothing about the team’s increased reliance on its bench because Thornton, for all his failings, is a more durable player than Battier.
For an infinite supply of amusement, go to Queen City Hoops and assume the role of basketball Zeus.
30 Responses
While interesting, I know this will start the AT bashing. But it’s pointless. We’re not trading for Shane. We have AT. Get used to it.
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Posted on September 23rd, 2009 at 12:43 pm
This is very interesting, these stat formulas are amazing.
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Posted on September 23rd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Why not run this thing with Rasul Butler? There is actually a chance to have him start at the 3.
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D.J. Foster Reply:
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Plug it in at the site- you’ll get some pretty interesting numbers.
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Posted on September 23rd, 2009 at 4:33 pm
You’re also comparing an nba veteran with someone who has 2 years in the league.
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Posted on September 24th, 2009 at 11:23 am
How many more wins do we get by adding Blake Griffin? That’s what I want to know. A motivated and healthy Baron Davis will have more of an effect than anything else.
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Posted on September 24th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Hey lets plug in trenton hassel I bet he works well in this system. Trenton hassel “allows” other players to score more, by in fact not scoring kinda like battier. Thornton carried this team most games the last 2 seasons and for a young guy that shows a lot of heart. He’s not the best defender but shane battier honestly lets get our comparisons right and quit just trying to stir up bs.
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Posted on September 24th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Carried this team? (Eric Gordon, anyone?)
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Posted on September 24th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
I am not giving up on Al Thornton yet. I he might be the x factor this year.
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Posted on September 25th, 2009 at 1:34 am
Did I read correctly that somebody actually said that Thorton carried the team? Yeah right. Now that we heard from his family, lets talk about Gordon. Thorton does not play defense and wastes possessions. Trade him to the team that took Alan Iverson. The Clippers have tremedous potential this year. We still need a defensive stalwart. I appreciate the article because it addresses the last remaining problem going into the season. If we cannot trade him now, showcase Thorton and hand him to a sucker that will give us that defensive star.
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Posted on September 25th, 2009 at 8:19 am
AL Thornton is talented; He makes incredible circus lay ups around the basket, drives well and is very athletic. Those are some strengths that become stronger when the Clippers run.
He looked good at last years summer league alongside EG , while shooting slightly less and geting to the rim drawing fouls ,I thought he had found a perfect blend of scoring . A second coming of an effeciency game like Maggette’s .
He is a beast in the open floor! According to my DVR archives; Baron Davis finds AT on fastbreaks more than any one. Whether its a bounce pass, a lob for a finishing dunk or a chest pass, Thornton can finish.
Lets see how Thornton’s game looks this season before putting labels that could scar his career and feelings.
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Posted on September 25th, 2009 at 9:45 am
I thought it was kind of funny to see that a lot of the guys who came out to Lamar Odom’s bachelor party were clippers (BD, Camby, BG, Thornton, Ricky Davis) … http://photos.tmz.com/galleries/odoms_bachelor_party#52973
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Clipper Derrick Reply:
September 25th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
I guess I was wrong… apparently there was a Clipper team dinner at the same place where Lamar Odom’s bachelor party was at: http://www.tmz.com/
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Posted on September 25th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Its good to hear that the team is trying to build chemistry . I was watching the Clippers/Suns playoff series on Youtube the other day. The Clippers gave up a lot of easy shots in that series.
Though our fandom blurs our thinking and reality to an extent, Elton was on FIRE and Damn! Cassel sure could shoot that mid range J.
I regret having watched that damn Raja 3 ! It hurt then and it hurts now.
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Posted on September 25th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
So Stephen Jax wants out of GS. What’s the appetite for him coming to Clip-town for Thornton? (I haven’t worked the numbers, but assuming they work out…) Pairing Jax w/ BD together again a winning formula?
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Ian Reply:
September 25th, 2009 at 11:13 pm
I like Jax, although he’d be another wild-card, questionable decision making type.
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SamMays Reply:
September 28th, 2009 at 8:39 am
We’ve currently got Baron who played for a year, didn’t defend, didn’t hustle, showed no leadership, couldn’t shoot, couldn’t beat anyone off the dribble. Let’s not start bringing over his friends.
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Posted on September 25th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Adog, that is a great call. I was thinking last week how can we get stephen jackson on the team and out of Golden State. Perfect trade and scenario.
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Posted on September 26th, 2009 at 8:08 am
If I remember correctly , he makes 8 or 9 mill per . Who could be a good salary match?
Other than Kaman ? GS already has young bigs…
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Posted on September 26th, 2009 at 10:29 am
TRADE KAMAN for Stephen Jackson — get Raja Bell (if he’s still available) too for draft picks and cash, whatever, make it happen Dunleavy. If the Clippers are serious about winning THIS YEAR — they should go after these two players. DO NOT TRADE Al Thornton. Getting tired of the negativity regarding Al’s play. He’s only in his third year. Takes time to become a complete player in the league.
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btc Reply:
September 27th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
I agree. Clipp fans forget he’s only entering his third year. Get real with your expectations.
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ghost_ride Reply:
September 28th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Takes time to become a complete player in the league?
Ask EJ & Blake Griffin at the end of the year, and see if that’s true. AT will be 26 in December, so he still has some time to develop into a better player, and hopefully he does but a basketball prodigy he is not.
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Posted on September 27th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
We have one of the most complete clipper teams I can remember. At least two deep at every position. We need this damn season to start !
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Posted on September 27th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
I don’t know who this other J’rock is and what kind of whack ass trade scenarios he’s proposing but know that the real J’rock keeps 2things consistent:E.J. is NEXT and Thornton needs to step up his game.
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J Rock Reply:
September 29th, 2009 at 8:36 am
EJ can’t even make a free throw, genius. Don’t get me wrong, I love EJ’s potential, but he’s not ready for prime time, unless there’s garbage to dunk. Kaman sucks — move him asap. As long as your “keeping it real” J, you obviously don’t know the league very well if you don’t think Stephen Jackson and Raja Bell would help this team.
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Posted on September 27th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
They destroyed the Season Ticket holder bar, Royal Room. The remodeling looks terrible
http://www.flickr.com/photos/60328699@N00/3962416033/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/60328699@N00/3962418421/
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Posted on September 28th, 2009 at 9:47 am
I read on SI.com that Raja Bell is being shopped. Any thoughts on possibly shoring up the 2 spot with Bell through a trade?
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Posted on September 28th, 2009 at 11:07 am
speculation is for bored sports writers
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Posted on September 28th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
I just read that Stephen Jackson’s contract runs till 2013. No thanks….
Not much need for Raja Bell with Butler on deck.
Damn! CLippers looking like a mini fantasy team. Clippers were going head to head with alot of playoff teams in the early part of the season but were so depleted that the starters were over played and too tired to close out games.
Even if they do not make the post season, I would just like to see good basketball games at staple center every night. Competitive professional NBA basketball.
Just saw some media day pics and Baron looks pretty lean and muscular. Ricky Davis has a youthful / rejuvenated appearance as well . Kaman looks the same to me.
I have a feeling that either kaman or Camby will be traded this season….
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Posted on September 29th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
This machine suggests that the Boston Celtics would be 6 games better if Shane Battier replaced Paul Pierce.
Basketball is not baseball. Stats only tell so much.
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Posted on September 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
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