Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Mike Dunleavy: Forebearer of Effective Field Goal Percentage

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz on September 29, 2009 at 6:20 pm

I’d read recently on Kevin Pelton’s Statistical Analysis Primer that “Effective Field-Goal Percentage was invented by current L.A. Clippers Coach Mike Dunleavy.”

Dunleavy as statistical innovator came as some surprise because the Clippers aren’t regarded as an organization on the vanguard of advanced analytics. By Dunleavy’s own admission, he wasn’t looking to glean any rarefied knowledge about the basketball universe when he came up with effective field goal percentage. He was just trying to negotiate a fair contract in the latter half of his playing career.

The way Dunleavy tells the story, this was in the early 80s, when Dunleavey was negotiating his own contract.

“I’m doing my own deal with this general manager,” Dunleavy said. “I asked for whatever I asked for and he offered me like half of that.”

Dunleavy declined to say which team or general manager he was negotiating with, but remembered the conversation with the executive vividly.

“He says, ‘your numbers are good, but they aren’t great,’” Dunleavy said. “So I went away and started thinking about it.  I look at the other guys getting paid. And I’m thinking, ‘I’m making these 3s, which are one-and-a-half times a regular shot.’”

Dunleavy became a 3-point specialist a few years into his career. With San Antonio in 1982-83 he led the NBA in both shots made beyond the arc (67) and 3-point percentage (34.5%). But the added value of a 3-pointer isn’t factored into basic field goal percentage.

“So I took all my 3-point field goals divided by two, and added those to my amount of field goals,” Dunleavy said. “I went to the guy and said, ‘Okay, I shoot 47 percent. But if I shot 52 or 53 percent, what would I be worth?’”

Dunleavy put what he referred to as his “effective field goal percentage” figures on the table, and the two sides ultimately came to an agreement.

“I didn’t get all of what I asked for,” Dunleavy said. “But I got more.”

8 Responses

  1. avatar shutup Said,

    Just let them run dunleavy and we’ll win. Run the Horses!

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    avatar

    FireDunleavy .com Reply:

    Did you cut and paste from last year?

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    Posted on September 30th, 2009 at 1:49 am

  2. avatar ghost_ride Said,

    Nice repartie, same guy?

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    Posted on September 30th, 2009 at 12:14 pm

  3. avatar McPancakes4u Said,

    If any of you are into fantasy basketball. I made a league on espn.com named “Clippers!”

    I encourage anyone to sign up who thinks they know about stats. Also it would only be fun if you think you can play the whole season. Sign up b4 the draft is on Oct.5 11:45 ET

    much appreciated.

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    Posted on September 30th, 2009 at 4:51 pm

  4. avatar jeff Said,

    You don’t divide 3 pointers by 2. You divide them by 1.5 right? Dunleavy is a fukkin ret@rd either way.

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    Posted on September 30th, 2009 at 5:42 pm

  5. avatar Beard_the_curse Said,

    Fantasy league for clipp fans
    yahoo
    League ID#: 156065
    Password: thisyearisit

    Custom League URL: http://basketball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/clippertalkannual

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    Posted on September 30th, 2009 at 10:40 pm

  6. avatar Petey Pablo Said,

    I just thought about something Crazy! With Shaq and Yao out of the west, two All Star spots opened up. Remember back in 07-08 when some thought that kaman played at an All Star level ? He had a heck of a season. Clippers only won 23 games and drafted EG.

    What IF Kaman returns to 2.0 or better ? Would an appearance on that special weekend
    be too wild? I think yes BUT not completely out of the question.

    Thumb up Thumb down 0

    Posted on October 1st, 2009 at 9:33 pm

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