The Clippers spent a good part of Tuesday’s practice working on defensive rotations. During the team’s 5-on-5 scrimmage, the coaching staff would have one practice squad run a high pick-and-roll, with a direction by Mike Dunleavy to go left or right off the action. The defensive unit was then ordered to trap or “red” the point guard, which means the PG’s primary defender would crowd him directly on his shoulder, with the screener’s defender joining his teammate out on the perimeter.
Basic perimeter trap, but effective only if the back line defenders rotate with quickness and precision.
This coverage scheme is the backbone of most NBA defenses on half-court S/R possessions. The teams that perform this task well (Cleveland, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans) tend to prosper. Teams that struggle on defensive rotations get shredded, particularly by offenses who can spread the floor with shooters.
 Remember these guys? Defense was their middle name. (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE) |
Will the Clippers be a solid halfcourt defensive team this season?
Hope: Crisp as 2005-06
In some sense, defensive rotations are a lot like officiating in basketball. When your team’s defense is rotating effectively, you hardly notice it. When they blow it, it’s painfully obvious and aggravating.
Let’s rewind to 2005-06, when the Clippers were the 7th most efficient defense in the league. One of the bedrock strengths of that team was the alacrity of their half-court defense. On a 1-5 pick-and-roll, Cassell and Kaman would blitz the ballhandler, and the backline trio of Elton Brand, Cuttino Mobley and Quinton Ross would pick up the screener and still get to their respective spots along the perimeter. That season, the Clips played 3-on-4 defense in those situations as well as any team in the league, which is why, despite being a below-average offensive squad, they were a Raja Bell hail mary away from a conference final berth.
“A lot of what you do defensively is keyed by the guys on the back line,” Dunleavy said. “They have a chance to see the play and read the play. They see everybody out there.”
That 2005-06 team knew how to read half-court defenses even though, with the possible exception of Ross, none of the other four players in that lineup were All-NBA defenders. But Brand and Mobley had acute court awareness and were tough as nails. That season, you could watch 40 defensive possessions before seeing a blown rotation. Though many Clippers fans might be loath to admit it, Mike Dunleavy had a lot to do with that.
For this year’s Clippers, getting from chaos to fluency is going to take a little time.
“It’s all about repetitions,” Dunleavy said. “For us, the first component is getting to the right spots, make the right reads, and then you continue to build on that.”
Will this team have the personnel and collective smarts to replicate that 2005-06 defense? It’s certainly possible. If you swap out Al Thornton for Rasual Butler, the Clippers’ “three man rotation” defending a 1-5 pick-and-roll would be composed of Eric Gordon, Rasual Butler, and Blake Griffin/Marcus Camby/Chris Kaman.
Aside from the beastliness, explosiveness, athleticism, balance, and general immortality Griffin displayed at Summer League, Dunleavy was most impressed with the rookie’s reads on defense. “He really got the rotations,” Dunleavy has said … three times in interviews over the past eight weeks. He’s telling the truth. Not only was Griffin routinely at the right spot, he reacted with ease to nearly every offensive counter. On top of that, he was a vocal traffic cop on D. In short, he got it.
Rasual Butler has the length and wherewithal to bounce from a cutter back to the perimeter effectively. The upgrade over Thornton in this department is almost inestimable.
The wild card here is Eric Gordon. Though EJ has the strength to body up as a man defender against many opposing shooting guards, he has yet to master team defense and has a long way to go before he’s Cat Mobley. But there’s tremendous upside here. Gordon played with dozens of lineups last season and it’s unreasonable to expect a young rookie to grasp the nuances of NBA rotations — particularly when there was a different defensive unit out there each time he took the floor … and that unit often included the likes of Thornton and Zach Randolph. When you consider that collection of players last season, it’s no wonder the Clips finished 27th in defensive efficiency.
This season, Butler will take tremendous pressure off Gordon on the wing. If Griffin is as quick a study defensively as he’s demonstrated early, the Clippers could be a dramatically different, and vastly improved, defensive unit.
The Fear: Opponents Exploit the Clips’ Inexperience
Compliment Griffin and Gordon all you want, but can you find any precedent for an elite defensive unit that depends on the instincts of a couple of 20 year olds? I’ve been asked/forced to go on record with a prediction of the Clippers’ win total this season, and the optimistic number I’ve come up with is 36-38. And it’s this dynamic — along with the rebounding on the wings — that’s kept that number in check.
This fear isn’t without a disclaimer — it’s early. Although some believe that the ability of a player to understand half-court defense is a hard-wired intuition, there’s plenty of evidence that a player can cultivate that defensive readiness.
“These are skills that can be taught,” Dunleavy said. “When you get it right, it will be really good.”
Note the future progressive tense here. It will be really good. But that could take some time and there are several rotation players on the squad for whom that time could be an eternity: Thornton, Steve Novak, DeAndre Jordan, Ricky Davis (at times). Gordon still has a ways to go. Chris Kaman is a sold interior defender, but becomes less capable the farther away from the basket. At this juncture, only Marcus Camby and Butler can be depended on for crisp possession in-possession out rotations.
Another uncertain piece here: Baron Davis’ ability to contain the ballhandler. For all his defensive failings — and they were many — Cassell knew he’d be beaten off most S/Rs, but he was very good about funneling the opposing PG to the right spot. Baron has been a very, very good defender in the past. Last year? Well, you watched the games. You tell me. Will Baron recommit himself this season?
There are a lot of uncertainties and the prospect of this collection of players replicating the air-tight 2005-06 squad defensively are very, very remote. If this season’s Clippers can finish in the high-teens in defensive efficiency, that would be a vast improvement — but still leave them as a 30-ish win team.
The Hope: Gordon and Griffin become quick studies under the tutelage of a coach whose specialty is this kind of instruction.
The Fear: That learning process takes far longer than anticipated. Thornton continues to get the bulk of the minutes at the 3, and the base pick-and-roll defense up top will leak like a sieve.
13 Responses
Great post, Kevin.
[Reply]
Posted on October 7th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
After reading this, my main concern now is keeping an intact squad for years to come that will learn the defenses. As past years have demonstrated, it has been tough keeping the same players year after year. Great Post!
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Posted on October 7th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
This is an excellent post. But I don’t think time plays a factor with defense. In the NBA, it’s all about effort. That clipper team you cited didn’t play together for a long time. If I remember right, that was their first year together. The most dangerous thing in the NBA is a completely motivated player. The next would be a team.
If our guys care, as we’ve been reading they do, there’s no reason we shouldn’t be a top defensive unit in the league. Look at AT, physically he has it all. He’s tall, long arms, quick, and a tremendous athlete. If you gave Bruce Bowen those physical gifts he would have one DPY every year. It’s the effort.
[Reply]
btc Reply:
October 7th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Won not one. My bad
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Posted on October 7th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Great writing! Through the lens of Hollinger’s efficiency rating, Butler is below average in “player efficiency.” It is my belief/hope that Hollinger’s ratings fail to be reliable indicators of talent. I look forward to good returns from Ras.
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Posted on October 7th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Im so nervous for this season…im so afraid it will be the same old same old disaster
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Posted on October 7th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
I share your concern, “melting Clippers.” This squad has a lot more depth than last year’s squad not to mention the addition of Blake Griffin.
But like Kevin said in his well crafted article, this is a sub-.500 team. If they can win 41 games, I’ll consider the season a great success.
Robert
[Reply]
FireDunleavy .com Reply:
October 8th, 2009 at 10:56 am
For the cost of ticket prices and the team being in LA, 41 games missing the playoffs shouldn’t be a success.
My guess is around 34 wins with the Dunce, 45-50 with a very good coach. The easy early schedule, plus the 19 wins last year should give them a good start.
[Reply]
Posted on October 8th, 2009 at 12:23 am
what do people really want. We have a healthy experienced pg, an up and coming good sg(undersized but he is long, 6-6 wing span), rasual at the 3(good defender and 3pt shooter), BG at the 4(prob my biggest concern but the man has high iq, athletics, skill, fundamentals), and Kaman at the 5(in the best shape of his fellow team mates according to mdsr). Plus we have Al coming off the bench with deandre and craig smit/telfair. My only real problem is we are thin at the 3 because if any of bd or st go down we only have mardy collins and the guy can’t shoot. Yes, we are a new squad, but we have enough skills and fundamentals to contend for a playoff spot.
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Posted on October 8th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
I meant thin at the 1. Oh, and I completely forgot about RD. If he can come with anything we are really dangerous. Al is a good player but what if he has a bad night? That’s when having a healthy rd comes in handy.
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Posted on October 8th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Thanks for the shout out on Twitter kev. All of poster are just throwing stuff at the wall hoping to catch brilliance like you do every post.
Beard the curse
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Posted on October 9th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Great post. I think keeping the same team together for a few years has to be one of their biggest concerns. Confidence & rapport with your teams are seem to be overlooked by so many teams. Look at the Spurs. That’s why they are always so good (plus, landing Duncan 13 years ago didn’t hurt). Looking forward to seeing how Baron, Gordon, and Griffin mesh.
[Reply]
Posted on October 9th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
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