As unnecessarily stressful as this win is for the Clippers against an unimpressive Minnesota club, I was reminded of Michael Lewis’ piece last year in the New York Times about Shane Battier and the Houston Rockets. Lewis watched the second half of a Lakers-Rockets regular season game with Houston vice president of basketball operations, Sam Hinkie. Lewis explains that when Hinkie views a game, he’s more interested in whether the Rockets (or their opponents) get off a high-probability shot than whether the shot goes in.
More remarkable than the game were Hinkie’s reactions — and it soon became clear that while he obviously wanted the Rockets to win, he was responding to different events on the court than the typical Rockets (or N.B.A.) fan was.
“I care a lot more about what ought to have happened than what actually happens,” said Hinkie, who has an M.B.A. from Stanford. The routine N.B.A. game, he explained, is decided by a tiny percentage of the total points scored. A team scores on average about 100 points a game, but two out of three N.B.A. games are decided by fewer than 6 points — two or three possessions. The effect of this, in his mind, was to raise significantly the importance of every little thing that happened. The Lakers’ Trevor Ariza, who makes 29 percent of his 3-point shots, hit a crazy 3-pointer, and as the crowd moaned, Hinkie was almost distraught. “That Ariza shot, that is really painful,” he said. “Because it’s a near-random event. And it’s a 3-point swing.” When Bryant drove to the basket, instead of being forced to take a jump shot, he said: “That’s three-eighths of a point. These things accumulate.”
Almost every Clippers fan — and most of the players and the staff — would like to put a beatdown on Minnesota Monday night, but the Clippers barely eke out a three-point victory. Yet, if Eric Gordon and Rasual Butler drain those open looks from beyond the arc down the stretch, if Chris Kaman converts the easiest shot attempt he has all night beneath the basket with under two minutes to go, the final result would be much more satisfying. The Clips are better than the 22 percent they shot from beyond the arc Monday night, and Kaman statistically makes nearly two-thirds of his inside shots.
This isn’t to minimize the 20 turnovers, a condition that’s gone from unsettling curiosity to full-fledged epidemic over the past week. But the Clippers are able to generate a decent selection of looks, and on most nights that menu of shots will translate into better than 42.7 percent — their shooting clip for the game. Even the turnovers — 5 from Baron Davis, a player with an excellent record of protecting the basketball — is an outlier, born more out of ambition tonight than outright carelessness. All this makes the Clippers’ 98.9 offensive efficiency number — which normally reflects a woeful offensive night — a lot less disconcerting.
We’ll look at some more film tomorrow, but let’s discuss Chris Kaman’s first half: 16 points (7-9 FGs, 2-3 FTs), eight rebounds and two blocks. When Chris moves quickly away from the direction of the help, thereby thwarting the double-team, he’s nearly unstoppable from the block.
Kaman’s improved conditioning and stroke aren’t the only factors that have elevated his game. Baron Davis is setting Chris up beautifully, getting him the ball precisely where he likes it. (1st, 11:13; 1st, 5:29; and especially 2nd, 5:48 off the pick-and-roll). Baron deserves a lot of praise. The abundant flaws and bad habits in Baron’s game are glaringly obvious, so it’s easy to forget about his ability to work with players who need precise handling to find their shots — though Kaman is becoming pretty adept at creating his own shot these days.
There isn’t much to defend on the Wolves’ side of the ball. They don’t demand any coverage along the perimeter, which allows opponents to sag at will. Still, the Clippers defended Minnesota’s cuts and off-ball action extremely well. Marcus Camby was basket protector extraordinaire, and the help collapsed on Jonny Flynn upon penetration. He got off some shots in the first half, but the Clips didn’t allow him to make plays. In the second half, the Wolves invested everything they had in Al Jefferson down on the block. He and Ryan Hollins put up a combined 9-12 line from the field, but the Clippers’ perimeter defense was tight and the Wolves’ center play accounted for the entirety of their offense.
Aside from the turnovers, Eric Gordon’s 0-0 night from the line is the most troubling stat, particularly when you consider that the Clips are in the penalty early in both the third and fourth quarters. The Clips need to run more PNR sets for Eric in bonus situations — or any situation really. He’s demonstrated an increased ability to make plays when he can’t get all the way to the rack. Let him initiate the offense off the dribble.
Some video tomorrow.
21 Responses
“Aside from the turnovers, Eric Gordon’s 0-0 night from the line is the most troubling stat, particularly when you consider that the Clips are in the penalty early in both the third and fourth quarters.”
When your PG is Baron Davis – what can you expect? Seriously……….
Essentially, nothing has changed with Baron. Still the same mindset. Still the same bogus plays. Still the same ugly shots at the least opportune time. Still ignoring EJ most of the time so HE can take the shot himself.
It’s depressing we’re locked into this dude for another almost 4 years when we need a real PG to run the offense.
Thanks, Elton Brand – what a shitty parting gift.
[Reply]
btc Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:15 am
Did you watch the game?
[Reply]
Stian Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Question is – did YOU?
Here’s a reality check for you Baron nuthuggers:
33.3 FG%
26.3 3-PT%
72.7 FT%
If you don’t understand just how huge of a detriment that is to the team despite his 7.6 dimes and 2.2 steals, you simply don’t get it.
Baron should be the assists leader by a wide margin instead of the worst shooting PG in the NBA by a wide margin!
[Reply]
benoit benjamin's two left shoes Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Re EJ’s 0-0 from the FT line: I’m a little worried he’s getting a rep with the refs as a whiner. I’ve noticed this in a couple of games already. When he doesn’t get a call, he makes his unhappiness known with some not so subtle body language, then goes into a funk. And, of course, he doesn’t get the next call since he’s just shown up the refs and his funk gets deeper and he gets more tentative.
IMO, he needs to forget about the calls and just go to the rim like he did last year.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 2:19 am
Kevin, I think you bring up a great point point. I think it is very useful to look at shot selection and not so much whether the ball goes in or not on a given night, over 82 games you have to believe it will work itself out. If the clippers improve their shot selection and find a way to cure the t.o. epidemic, why cant we be hovering around .500 when blake gets back. Im interested to hear your opinion for the reason why the clips turn it over so much. By the way, this blog is the best thing ever, it is what I wake up to with my morning cup of coffee, and on game nights, the chats are awesome. You and DJ do a great job
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 8:17 am
There’s a poll with analysis at http://www.nbagauntlet.com comparing Danilo Gallinari with Eric Gordon. I was wondering who you’d rather have on the Clippers.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 8:22 am
Gordon is too content to float around the perimeter and take what the defense gives him. If he’s going to be a star, he’s got to learn to take what he wants and impose his will on the game. He’s only taking about 12 shots a game… He’s hitting a great percentage and doing well with it, but I’d like to see him take 15-20 shots every game…
I think Baron and Camby do a very poor job of finding him offensively. At least three times Camby got the ball at the top of the key with Gordon wide open at the three point line. Rather than reverse the ball to the teams best outside shooter, he tried to make plays for himself… Likewise, Baron, whenever he penetrates needs to be aware of where Gordon is, usually on the weakside waiting for the pass…
And some of it, Gordon has to do for himself. There is such a thing as being too unselfish to the detriment of the team. And Gordon is that… Every shot he passes up at around 50% ends up being taken by Baron, or Thornton or Butler at about 28%…
[Reply]
gsr Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:46 am
Gordon is only 20. Expecting everything from him now is not going to yield any results.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 9:24 am
Few things happened yesterday which helped us.
Finally Kaman is looking to PASS. He needs to practice PASSING for an entire game. Then he’ll be a BIG factor. Potential of Blake-Kaman tandem is going to be insane. Let’s go 10-10
until Blake returns.
Baron Davis is becoming a far better player than anyone expected. He’s using his energy & skills wisely. If this Baron flourishes like this, watch out. Sam Cassel was 35 when he took this team to greater heights. Why not Baron? He’s only 30.
Next 2 seasons Al Thornton should adapt to coming off the bench and add more depth to his game. If that happens, then we might benefit a great deal.
Clippers should adapt to a mantra in order to expand: Make PASSING your first task. Keep looking for an open man until clock ticks 15 sec. This will send defense scrambling and confused. We saw that yesterday few time. But this should happen throughout. Make it a culture. It’s fun to watch.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:09 am
Nice to see Clipper Daryl starting the wave in the 4th quarter when the T-wolves go up by 1.
And Kaman really got bailed out of that last play when he got posterized by someone and there was no foul call. Clips got some good calls towards the end. A win’s a win, but that was a really stupid play by Kaman at the end.
I feel sorry for Ralph and Mike. It must have been hard calling the game, trying to figure out who was playing for the T-wolves.
[Reply]
Chris. Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:27 am
The wave angered me. I thought it was pathetic that the fans were doing the wave when the team was struggling and eventually lost the lead. Sadly the more I thought it the more I thought what else are they gonna do when they watch us crumble to an inferior team. I’m glad we won but that wave really needs to stop, especially when the arena CLEARLY isn’t a sell-out.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:22 am
I also noticed that while Thorton worked well off the bench, Butler was really timid in the starting line-up. Sure his shots weren’t falling at all & they will, but he needs to take an open jumper, he’s got the shot. Also free throws, we used to be really good at them years ago, and I swear Ralph said at one point we had missed 7 FREE throws in a row. Oy. A win is a win & to me that’s what matters the most.
[Reply]
Chris. Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:41 am
ok, it wasn’t 7 missed in a row, it was 7 missed all night and 9 shots missed in a row. 3rd quarter woes again. Kinda eery after your post the other day about 3rd quarter woes.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:29 am
The problem with Gordon is that he still isn’t confident enough to demand the ball. There were plenty of times I saw Gordon last night pass up an open shot and instead pass it up to Camby or even Baron, even though he’s the most consistent shooter and scorer we have on this team. Baron got it to him, but he just didn’t want to take it for whatever reason. I guess it’s just Gordon’s personality since he is a pretty quiet person. When you look at the superstars in this league like D-Wade, LeBron, Kobe, Dwight, they all have that personality that makes them that “superstar.” With Gordon, I just don’t see it. He needs to be way more aggressive if the Clippers are ever going to get to the next level since our future mainly rests between Eric and Blake.
[Reply]
gsr Reply:
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:17 am
Again, Gordon is only 20. He’s basically a self-driven player like those superstars. But when he plays like them, Dunleavy would call time-out. That one incident last season might have dampened his spirit. When he ‘feels’ it, he likes to attack & shoot. But Dunleavy doesn’t like ‘concentrated’ & ‘focused’ play by anyone.
That’s why Clippers don’t produce any superstars. Superstars demand TOTAL freedom. Clippers are averse to such freedom. If you curtail & control a talent, what you get is: LOSS.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 am
This was a great game. Nonetheless, it would have been nice to see the Clips put away the Wolves with ease, but we need to think BABY STEPS. We got one win under belt with a slew of lower echelon teams on the way.
What I’ve started noticing is that our team seems to be comprised of a bunch of different tandems: i.e. B. Davis / Kaman, Telfair / Smith, Gordon / Griffin (Super G combo). We start out with a bang with Davis racking up the assists and Kaman making nearly everything.
But then, by the second half, opponents are catching up to our antics and shutting the Baron / Kaman combo down. Right now, our team seems to be way too lopsided. We need to figure out how to get the other guys out there to give a stronger offense impact rather than being mere contributors. I guess that’s all a part of having new guys and an injured Griffin.
On a side note, I’d say our defense is looking pretty good. Having Camby and Kaman trolling the rim, Baron sniffing out loose balls, Gordon fighting through screens, and everyone rotating seems to be working fairly well.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 am
I was more disheartened watching this game than any of our four losses…like a lot of Clips fans I bet. This post eases the pain.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:45 am
Like everyone else I want Gordon to shoot more, but he is doing it the right way for a young player. Take your shots, be efficient and the coaching staff will run plays for you. If Dunleavy doesn’t, its just another reason why he should be fired.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 10:48 am
Baron Davis is now shooting 33% on the year. Despite what he’s doing ok, his shooting is costing us dearly. If he was even an average shooter we’d probably have at least 1 more win right now. He is absolutely killing us. I actually find myself feeling more at ease when I see Telfair come in the game.
As far as Gordon getting to the line, it seems like this year for some strange reason more than last year, his lack of length is really hurting him. He’s gotten rejected a lot this year going to the basket. There are guys his height who can finish at the basket with good success like Iverson and Nash for instance, but they have infinitely better handles than Gordon which allows them to maneuver better in the lane and get a shot off that’s harder to block. Gordon basically just barrels into the lane and puts a shot up, and lately it seems like guys are just right there ready swat it. I think for right now he needs to focus on his perimeter attack and allow his ball handling to develop so that he will be able to create shots in the lane that aren’t bothered as much by lengthy defenders.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 am
Baron should experiment with his game. Go into a game and not take one shot and see what happens. I’d much prefer 15 assists and no points to the 2 for 10 he’s putting up night after night after night… I don’t know why DJ isn’t playing more. Camby has become a shoot first player. Al Thorton should be traded. Butler is clearly a much smarter player and i’ll take BB IQ over brute athleticism any day. Pathetic win. If this team can’t pound a team like the Wolves we have zero chance against 95 percent of the league.
[Reply]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 12:11 pm
[...] healthy now. Leave it to the great Kevin Arnovitz to use last night’s game to point out what’s really changed in Kaman’s game: his movement without the ball. Kaman came into camp in phenomenal shape, so I dunno if [...]
Posted on November 3rd, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Add A Comment