Numerology: The Good News

04 Nov 2009

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If you speak to executives who use advanced analytics to make player personnel decisions, many of them will tell you a similar story about such stats:

We like to look at the performance of specific units as much as individual players.

Since opening night, the Clippers have fielded five units that have played collectively greater than 9 minutes:

Unit	MP	Off Rtg	Def Rtg	ORR	DRR
Davis-Gordon-Thornton-Camby-Kaman	76	103.8	99.3	28.9	76.2
Davis-Gordon-Butler-Camby-Kaman	53	115.7	100.0	40.0	70.4
Telfair-Gordon-Butler-Smith-Kaman	15	84.4	84.4	20.0	68.2
Telfair-Butler-Thornton-Smith-Jordan	14	83.3	80.8	33.3	66.7
Telfair-Butler-Thornton-Smith-Kaman	9	105.9	129.4	37.5	57.1

Notice something? The top four units — the lineups that have logged double-digit minutes — have each outperformed [ed: or played even with] the competition. The starting lineup with Butler at the small forward has been particularly efficient offensively and has been beastly on the boards.

Collectively, both starting lineups have logged a +28 on the season!

So why have the Clippers dropped four of their first five games?

The more marginal lineups have killed them.

The unit of Telfair-Gordon-Butler-Smith-Jordan have spent only six minutes on the floor together, but compiled a -8.
Davis-Butler-Thornton-Camby-Kaman have played together for only four minutes, but went -7.
Baron Davis-Ricky Davis-Butler-Thornton-Kaman? -6 in only four minutes.

What can we take away from all this? For one, it’s early. The standard error on numbers like these 240 minutes into a season is enormous. But to the extent these stats tell us something, it might be that the Clips will operate best with a consistent rotation.

btc

This drives me crazy about dunleavy and even non-clipper fans. The guy has no set rotation. Players need to know if they’ll be playing and for how long, give or take foul trouble and bad shooting. But he’s just so damn eradict that it shows on the players how frustrating it is.

Off topic, Kevin, while viewing some of the posts on the mobile version of the site, often times the banner ad blocks out most of the first paragraph. I’m on an iPhone so I don’t know if it’s totally a mobile issue or the safari browser.
- Q.D.
  
  I get the same problem, it blocks off the first 2 sentences
  - laknights
    
    I think that occurs if you use safari (apple) to browse.
  - http://www.clipperblog.com Kevin Arnovitz
    
    We’re going to work on that for you. Thanks for your patience.
    
    ka
    - Mike Fiske (admin)
      
      This has been fixed.
DJM

I have the same problem and i’m using an Android phone.
average jose

why isn’t deandre playing????
laknights

I don’t always understand coach’s moves, but I think we have to give him some leeway THIS TIME about not having a set line-up; when wonder boy’s knee cap broke down, Dunleavy had to do some ‘cut and paste’ to his master plan.
brad

were about 6% through the season, its gonna take a few more games for coach to get set with his rotations
Curtis

This is pretty interesting stuff. I know you touched upon it a bit Kevin, but it’s really hard to have conclusive data right now since there are really only two line-ups that have significant minutes logged in, and despite that, is 76 min and 53 min enough data to draw conclusions?

I’m curious, how are offensive and defensive ratings calculated and what is ORR and DRR? Aside from the 53 min line up having a better overall rating by a significant margin, it seems as though the 76 and 53 line up are proportionally even based on the site you provided.

Also to clarify, since there seems to be a bit of confusion, this isn’t about Dunleavy having a bazillion different line ups. It’s analyzing all the different combination of players on the floor at once. It shows how effective certain line ups are in comparison to others.

If anything, it shows that Dunleavy hasn’t varied his line ups enough hence the 76min and 53min in comparison to the 15min and 14min. Thus, this tool shows that this team is still very new and Dunleavy is trying to figure out the best possible combination of players while distributing minutes proportionally.
Euthanize Kaman

Please get that damn LA Lakers breaking news banner off the site. It’s making me puke unless staples center collapsed on them and dunleavy was working late at the star plaza hotdog stand.
ghost_ride

No matter what numbers you throw up Thornton backers will continue to stand by their man.
Frank The Tank

LAC Camby, Marcus – Davis, Baron – Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris – Thornton, Al (unit)- 4.46
LAC Butler, Rasual – Camby, Marcus – Davis, Baron – Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris (unit)-15.69
LAC Butler, Rasual – Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris – Smith, Craig – Telfair, Sebastian (unit)-0.00
LAC Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris – Smith, Craig – Telfair, Sebastian – Thornton, Al (unit)- 12.82
LAC Camby, Marcus – Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris – Telfair, Sebastian – Thornton, Al (unit)- 1.59
LAC Davis, Baron – Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris – Smith, Craig – Thornton, Al (unit)- 16.67
LAC Butler, Rasual – Davis, Baron – Gordon, Eric – Kaman, Chris – Smith, Craig (unit)-183.33
LAC Butler, Rasual – Camby, Marcus – Gordon, Eric – Smith, Craig – Telfair, Sebastian (unit)0.00
LAC Davis, Baron – Kaman, Chris – Smith, Craig – Telfair, Sebastian – Thornton, Al (unit)- 50.00
LAC Butler, Rasual – Kaman, Chris – Rush, Kareem – Smith, Craig – Telfair, Sebastian (unit)0.00
LAC Butler, Rasual – Gordon, Eric – Jordan, DeAndre – Kaman, Chris – Telfair, Sebastian (unit)0.00

Craig Smith
Sebastian Telfair
DeAndre Jordan
Al Thornton

all need to step up if the LA Clippers want to win some ball games and use the units that are effective and efficent consistently
Robert Lehrer

Question: Does Dunleavy place much value in advanced analytics? How aware is Dunleavy of these stats?
- http://www.clipperblog.com Kevin Arnovitz
  
  My best estimate from conversations with team execs is that the Clippers are in the 50th percentile with advanced stats. It doesn’t govern each and every decision (the way, say, Houston embraces these numbers programmatically), but Dunleavy appreciates eFG (and maintains he invented the number), and the Craig Smith acquisition has to be heartening. They are by no means hostile to the numbers (and there are organizations that take a reactionary position and rely solely on traditional scouting).
  - brad
    
    I know that the rockets and mavericks are probably at the forefront of the number crunching game. It would be cool if there was a list of all the teams in the nba who actually use these advanced stats compared with the teams who just use traditional scouting. I like the clippers approach of using a mixture, because i do think that there are certain intangibles that cant be measured such as leadership, heart, and character. But then again the numbers dont lie……
http://www.fanaticteeshop.com Roy

It doesn’t take advanced analytics to tell you that the rotation of: Davis-Gordon-Butler-Camby-Kaman needs to be starting and playing heavy minutes…We all knew that going in. I will saythough that Thornton has impressed me with his rebounding thus far. last year he was atrocious. Now if Al can just eliminate that step back fadeway from 20 feet out, we’d be golden…
TNT57

Theres talk of LeBron going to the Lakers. Why would he want to do that? It make zero sense for him. What makes perfect sense is LeBron coming to the Clippers. How great would it be for LeBron to come to L.A. and build a new dynasty inside Kobes house? Take a losing franchise and make them champions right under the nose of his biggest rival. It’s epic. It’s dramatic. If Sterling would empty the bank it could happen. Kaman is playing great. Gordon is a budding star. Griffin is the future of power forwards. All we need is a point guard with a brain and we’ll be hanging banners in 2 years. I see it. I feel it. I taste it. So it written, so it is done.
- gsr
  
  Agree. But LeBron won’t even dream about it. Let’s not waste our time. But there’s no harm trying. Only way we can recruit talented players: via lottery picks.
http://www.firedunleavy.com FireDunleavy .com

Bill Simmons is having a book signing Nov 9th at ESPN zone across the street before the Clippers game against the Hornets.

Also, I saw where they usually put a player on the Clipper tickets, Nov 9th game has ‘Coach Dunleavy’ on the ticket.

If there ever was a ‘Fire Dunleavy’ day, all signs point to Nov 9th. Come out and Boo Dunleavy.
- brad
  
  why does booing dunleavy give you a boner, i bet if and when he actually gets fired you will derive some self-satsfaction from it, you sick, sick man
  - orville85
    
    booing Dunleavy gives me a boner too, but Dunleavy himself, nah…
  - http://www.firedunleavy.com FireDunleavy .com
    
    The satisfaction I get from him being fired, will = being able to root for a team that could actually go somewhere, probably purchasing season tickets again, and wearing a Clipper shirt in public. Going to Clipper games used to be fun, now it’s like a ghost town in there.
    
    I only care about wins. I have nothing against Dunleavy and he’ll get paid for the next 2 years no matter what.
    
    It’s the only thing fun to do at Clipper games. Plus it worked in 1 game last year. During the last game Dunleavy go so tired of the fans boo-ing him, he argued a call the refs called in his favor. Just so he could get kicked out.
    
    If Sterling is going to be so stubborn and not get a new coach + GM, the least we can do is let him hear it. Fire Isiah chants helped in New York and brought press to the situation.
    - brad
      
      im confused by your claim that it used to be fun. When was it fun? was it a few years ago when a dunleavy coached clippers squad made it to the second round, that was pretty cool. Or maybe it was that span of about a year when the clippers were very much like this years okc team coached by alvin and led by lamar and darius when they roared to an impressive 38 win season. You could be an “old school” fan and you might be talking about the time larry brown or bill fitch bravely led them to first round against houston or utah. Coming from a franchise that has hired the likes of JIm todd, chris ford, bob weiss, and paul silas, mike dunleavy seems like a cross between coach wooden, auerbach, and jackson.
      - http://www.firedunleavy.com FireDunleavy .com
        
        I’m not an old school Clipper fan, never claimed to be.
        
        Yeah it WAS fun with Dunleavy coaching the playoff run when I didn’t know as much and there was no reason to fire Dunleavy. He got lucky with Brand and Cassel both having great years. Cassell was given a little more control and could create plays and the players bought into the system, or bought into Cassell.
        
        Even after the losing to an injured depleted Suns team in the playoffs, I still wasn’t calling for him to be fired. At the time he’d only been here 3 years, and I held the ‘lets see what he can do’ even though I disagreed with many of his decisions.
        
        I’m not saying he’s the anti-christ, I’m just saying he needs to step down. The team could be so much better without him right now.
http://www.twitter.com/HitFixGregory jgroove

Thornton is such a weak link. Others can bang the get rid of Dunleavy drum, but Thronton has got to go to the bench. He is just not a winner on so many levels and not getting better. You know where he’d thrive statistically? On a selfish team like the Grizzlies (who remind me of the young Odom, Q-Rich, Miles Clips of years ago).

On the other hand, I don’t get this love for Craig Smith. He’s too small defensively (and not quick enough either). Sure, he can score, but he’s been a big problem against quicker teams. He would have thrived in the 90s, but he’s really an old school eastern conference player to me. Who does he help us against in the West? San Antonio? I’d honestly rather see a better defensive player like Skinner get the minutes.
Pingback: Press Clippings: 11-5-09 « Clippers Press Room
btc

You guys make it so personal with AT. Lol

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Numerology: The Good News

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