When people ask the brain trust of the Houston Rockets how the team is able to achieve success even though, on paper, it doesn’t look like much, they’ll often say, “Our guys know their limitations.” For instance, watch how little Chuck Hayes has the ball in his hands, and how rarely Shane Battier looks to take anything other than an uncontested spot-up jumper.
With a few exceptions, most rotation players in the NBA have skills and attributes on the basketball court people like you and I can’t imagine: the raw athleticism, the balance, the precision. Even the guys who aren’t particularly proficient from distance still hit shots at an incredible rate when you consider the speed and length of most NBA defenders.
But even these otherworldly talents have limitations in the context of the NBA game, and you know what?
That’s okay.
Not every baller can be LeBron James or Kobe Bryant and perform almost every basketball task at a proficient level. The challenge for the other 275 or so players who log minutes on a consistent basis is to leverage their assets and attenuate their weaknesses. 94 percent of Joakim Noah’s shots come inside, because the guy knows he’s a 24 percent jump shooter. Gerald Wallace appreciates that he’s better off the dribble, so 2-point jump shots compose only 15 percent of his attempts — which is one reason his career PER stands at 17.5 (and that’s before factoring in his dogged defense).
Last season, Al Thornton’s jump shot/close range ratio was 64/36 — this despite the fact that his eFG percentage on jumpers was .367, and his eFG percentage on inside shots was a very, very nice .611. You don’t have to be an advanced statistician to understand the implications of these numbers, and why his shot selection hurt his basketball team.
But more important, these numbers also tell you that Al isn’t a lost cause. Like Baron Davis, what if Thornton redistributed his shots? What if he exploited his size, length, and flashy first step against flimsier defenders closer to the hoop?
Did you see Al last night? His performance was a revelation. He started his spurt with a terrific back door cut, resulting in a pretty feed from the perimeter from Craig Smith for an easy uncontested layup. A minute later, he beat Jeff Green to the rim, where he received another feed inside five feet for another layup. In the third quarter when Kevin Durant foolishly left Al to double Marcus Camby 20 feet from the basket, Baron swung the ball to Al, who attacked the rim with impunity for a vicious slam. On the night, Al went 7-for-8 from inside, earned another two trips to the line on his inside work, and was the x factor in the Clippers’ big road win.
Now for the bad news, though it’s certainly instructive: On shots beyond three feet, Thornton went 0-for-8.
Still, that’s 10 true shot attempts inside to only eight from outside, good for a 44/56 outside/inside ratio — that’s as good a shot selection as we’ve seen from Al in a long time. Overall for the young season, Al’s outside/inside ratio is down to 55/45, a marked improvement from last season’s aforementioned 64/36.
That distribution isn’t a coincidence. Frustrated with Al’s settling for long, contested jumpers, Mike Dunleavy has given Al an imperative — any time the defensive help sloughs off Thornton on the weak side, Al should dive to the basket. And when the opposing defense assigns a weaker defender at the 3, there are now sets in the Clippers playbook that utilize Thornton in the post (tomorrow will be interesting to observe if the Hornets stick Peja Stojackovic on Al). Now this still doesn’t solve the spacing problem, but there’s only so much you can do until Eric gets back — and this re-positioning of Al is a nice adjustment.
And that’s what you want from players and coaches — a recognition of a team’s (or specific player’s) weaknesses and the creativity to adjust accordingly.
25 Responses
im going to slap every single person who thought Butler deserved the starting job!
Thornton only struggled because he wasnt use to such treatment by the duns
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Thornton certainly has the tools to become a very useful player. It’s just, he hasn’t put it together yet. If this is the start of something new, that’s awesome.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Yes indeed. That’s how Phil Jackson recruits young athletes and make them contribute & win games.
Knew Al Thornton can play hard & produce 20 ppg. But wasn’t sure about AL doing it under Dunleavy. Thornton is tough but too shy. He doesn’t want to ASK but choose to be SILENT. This introvert nature hurt his game real bad. With the help from Lucas and Hughes, Dunleavy can make smart player decisions.
Let’s hope this trend continues. Kareem Rush knows how to play smart. His defense can earn him more minutes. Dunleavy should use him most of 4th qrtr. Heavy minutes has been taking toll on Butler. His reduced min. can help him recover his lost shooting touch.
Dunleavy should make sure Baron, Camby and Kaman won’t get injured by the time Eric & Blake return to the lineup. Give them full rest most of 2nd qrtr and some of 3rd & 4th. These 3 needs to be in good spirits during the last 6 min. of every game.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Heck, I could have told you Al was a better post player than a wing player. We figured that out his rookie season when Elton was laid up with injury.
Nice to see they are at least adjusting to it now. But honestly, they knew this since Al started playing in the league.
ghost_ride Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
True, but they had no leverage to work with last year. They had to run him out there whether he was listening or not because they had no other options. With added competition at his spot, he’s either got to improve his shot selection or ride the pine.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 11:18 am
As impressive as Al was last night, it makes no sense to start him when EJ gets back. Like we’re talking about, he’s a much better post-up player than a shooter, that much is obvious. With Kaman and Blake/Camby starting, we don’t need a third post presence, we need a shooter and hopefully that’s Butler when it makes it out of this slump. Al can flat-out score, hope he sticks to doingt that on the inside.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Great great post, I posted something very similar at knickerblogger the other day…
” play a lot of poker and in poker the biggest factor separating the average good player from the average bad player is the ability to fold marginal hands. What separates the great players from the good players is a lot more complicated and difficult to quantify. The NBA is similar I think. There are some great role players who know what they can do very well and stick to that rather than diluting their value by trying to do more than they are capable of. They are high “positive expected value” players who are never going to be the biggest winners but who will show a much bigger profit than the high variance guys swinging from big highs to even bigger lows (al harrington anyone?”
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Actually, two more thoughts.
Josh Smith is also the perfect example this year of what you are trying to say. He isn’t a role player exactly but by cutting jumpshots from his game he has improved dramatically.
Also, working Dirty Harry and “a man’s got to know his limitations” into this post would have been classic….
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Nice article!
Yeah I noticed Al hadn’t hit a single jumper, though I know he can make those and at least 2 of them were wide up looks. But as you mentioned, it’s great to seem him utilize his post up game and use that athleticism to his advantageous against the weaker 3′s and the slower 4′s. He is definitely playing the way that suites him best. Hopefully his new found confidence doesn’t revert him to his old ways. Last night was the perfect game for him; grabbing offensive boards, cutting and driving for easy shots in the paint and taking, for the most part, easy mid-range jumpers. He usually wont be going 0-8 from past 3 feet. He should be making 3-4 of those, though I know he took at least 2 quick bailout shots.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
AI is officially done with Memphis.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I hope we don’t bring him in, for the love of God. He’s made it crystal clear he won’t come off the bench even to save his career. Sure we have an opening at shooting guard…for the next few games! We can’t bring dude in, I hope MDSr. wisely let’s him go. Any team that takes him on after DET and MEM, who isn’t named NYK or NJN, are irredeemably stupid.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Oh yea I dont think AI is the Answer for us, was just pointing out that his retirement is now “official”. Was also kinda impressed he just walked from the deal and didnt try to keep the money. That was kind of classy. Really hope someone finds a spot for him, AI not playing in the league really marks the passing of time and I kinda want a few more seasons with him around.
Gordon for President Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
bong? Really? Nothing about AI has been classy. I was on his side in DEN, and was impressed around the time he won the MVP at the DEN All-Star game. I figured I may have had him wrong. But bailing on DET before the play-offs, and practically crying at the MEM press conference only to ditch out this quickly is pretty un-classy. I hope he is retired, and stays that way.
bongstradamus Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Classy in the respect that he signed a contract and could have continued to get paid but chose to walk away. Thats about it. And it was really with a thick layer of sarcasm that I even mentioned it.
I could have seriously imagined him quitting and still expecting to get paid. Thats what I was impressed about.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Kevin/DJ/Vote for Pedro/Whoever,
Can you guys get us an updated on Blake? When can we expect to see him back?
D.J. Foster Reply:
November 16th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Should be about 2 more weeks, but that’s a rough estimate. Clippers haven’t set a new timetable on his return yet, but once they do we’ll make sure we post it.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
AI might not be done, he can sign for another team and he wants to play. Dunleavy already decided against him in the offseason. I’m sure some team could use him. He should go to the Cavs maybe. It’s hard to tell where his skills are because I haven’t seen him play in a while, but 34 isn’t that old.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
AI is a total Diva… You can get away that sort of behavior when you back it up, but when your skills start to wane, even a little bit, no one is interested in offering an olive branch to someone you’ve grown to resent.
It’s like a diva actor. When he’s on top, he can act however he wants and get away with it. Once he starts to slide, the slide won’t be stopped by friends who can help him, because he has no friends…
Iverson has always been an ass. Now he’s an ass with deteriorating skills.
Posted on November 17th, 2009 at 7:45 am
This is what we need for small forward available out there
Granger
Iguodala
Butler
G.Wallace
Euthanize Kaman Reply:
November 17th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Koralev is better than granger. Even dunleavy knows that. Why isnt he tops on your list? It’s his 5th year in the league, he’s poised to be an allstar!!!!!!
Posted on November 17th, 2009 at 11:00 am
im all for bringing in Granger! 33
Posted on November 17th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
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