Thursday, September 2, 2010

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Some General Thoughts About the Transactions

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On February 18, 2010 at 2:34 am

The Clippers’ work on the phone lines seems done. Soon we can get back to the business of balling, or whatever remains of that enterprise for the Clippers until April 14.

The Clippers essentially traded Marcus Camby, Al Thornton and Sebastian Telfair for Drew Gooden, Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake. More important moving forward, the Clippers sent out $5.5 million in committed salaries for the 2010-11 season (Thornton $2.8M, Telfair’s player option of $2.7M).

There’s been a faint expectation dating back to last year that Camby’s expiring contract could fetch the mythical, elusive small forward, a creature that combines Luol Deng’s length, Tayshaun Prince’s defense and savvy, Nic Batum’s youth and Danny Granger’s shot. The truth is that such a player doesn’t exist. If he did, he’d probably command far more than Marcus Camby’s expiring contract.

Instead, the Clippers get leaner headed into Summer 2010. Depending on where the salary cap is set and where they’re picking in the first round of the draft, they’ll have somewhere in the $15-$16M range, give or take a little. They downgrade considerably at the big by dealing Camby away and replacing him with Gooden, but Blake and Outlaw represent nice upgrades over Telfair and Thornton respectively. Outlaw has his fans around the league, which makes his Bird rights potentially worth something. If the Clippers decide they don’t want to sign him long-term, they could still ink him to a deal and use that contract in a sign-or-trade to obtain something they prefer. The same holds true for Blake.

Did the Clippers solve any specific long-term needs at the deadline? No. But they put themselves in a strong position to do so at the next possible opportunity, this upcoming summer. In a brutal economic climate, they persuaded teams to accept guaranteed contracts for players who aren’t all that valuable. That’s impressive.

The Clippers’ enhanced financial flexibility doesn’t guarantee anything. It doesn’t guarantee that a big free agent will sign with the team. It doesn’t guarantee that the money will necessarily be spent wisely. It doesn’t guarantee that the right coach will be hired. It doesn’t guarantee the health and durability of the players. It doesn’t guarantee Baron Davis’ happiness or devotion to the team’s success.

It doesn’t do any of that, but it does offer distinct hope that the next three seasons will be better than the last three.

There’s more here on how the Clippers might approach the summer.

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50 Responses

  1. JaySee Said,

    I think MDSr did a great job. I was scared at first that we wouldn’t be able to get rid of Thornton and Telfair after trading away Camby, but in the end he came through.

    If he can now hire a good coach, like maybe Avery Johnson, that can teach BD to be a real PG and sign a star to be the leader of the team (Lebron or Wade). I think this team can be a 4th seed in the playoffs next year.

    [Reply]

    Clipper Derrick

    Clipper Derrick Reply:

    I say you wait on hiring a coach until you know which free agent you have a good shot at. If Lebron can “choose” his coach, I’m sure that would make the Clippers a slightly nicer option.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 4:05 am

  2. FizzlingClip Said,

    You take an old car and spend millions to upgrade its body and hope to drive back on the road with pride.

    But you forgot to replace the old tires and engine. Both weren’t in working condition. But the owner of this car thought differently. Better body…more mileage!

    Everyone started laughing at this car owner but he didn’t get it until he crashed his car into a ditch.

    The story can go on until DONALD STERLING owns this team. It’s the management which needs total overhaul. Not just bringing in players to play for this mom & pop franchise.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 8:07 am

  3. T-Know of The CounterParts Said,

    i wanna know REALISTICALLY who we have a chance of signing in the up coming free agent bonanza! I don’t feel the LBJ is one though (especially with their latest transactions) but for some reason I feel Wade is. Anyone have any thoughts?

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 9:50 am

  4. Newport Clipper Said,

    I’ve always believed it will be Joe Johnson. LeBron will stay in Cleveland. He has a chance to go down in history as the greatest athlete in that city (except for maybe Jim Brown). If he can win a title there this year, it would make a world of difference. I really can’t picture anyone wanting to go to New York or New Jersey…I know they are big media markets, but the big guys want to play for a contender. Bosh might go to NY or NJ, so they could “build around him”, as he put it. I really think Wade will stay in Miami, and Riles will get another piece for him. I just don’t see JJ excited about Atlanta…he left PHX for the money…he will come to LA. Also, for some reason, I feel like the Clipper Karma is changing…it started with Blake Griffin. We could be the Orlando Magic of the 2010’s…when they got Shaq and Penny back-to-back…we could luck into John Wall. You never know…

    [Reply]

    TNT57

    TNT57 Reply:

    GRIFFIN BROKE HIS FRIGGIN’ LEG! Karma changes how?

    [Reply]

    Insighter

    Insighter Reply:

    There’s also a big reason why Lebron will *Not* go back to Cleveland. He wants to win more championships than Michael Jordon did. The Cavs’ are already at $63 million for next season (including Lebron’s option). They can’t sign any free agents this summer. Shaq will soon be gone. The rest of their team is not all that much. But the Clippers have Griffin, Gordon and Kaman, plus a good pick this year and the T-wolves pick in a couple of more years. So the Clippers really do have a better nucleus for the future. The Knicks, Nets and Wizards have no nucleus. The T-wolves do have a nucleus but nobody wants to go play in Minnesota. The Bulls and the Heat do have some players and both are good cities to play in. Out of all of the teams with a max slot, the Bulls, Heat and Clippers seem to lead the way, and of those three the Clippers may be the best — mainly because of Griffin.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 9:58 am

  5. SamMays Said,

    See where we draft… If we continue to tank, we’ll have about a 20% chance of getting the # 1 or #2… John Wall or Evan Turner… Both are future all-stars and possible franchise players… If we get one of them to add to Blake Griffin, the hell with going after a max player in free agency.

    Just get good support players for Wall/Turner and Griffin, get rid of Baron somehow and wait… And not long either… If we get the right personnel around them, we could be a playoff team next year and a major factor in the years following…

    If we don’t get that break, then perhaps a major free agent is in order. But lets see what happens in May.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 9:59 am

  6. FireDunleavy .com Said,

    On a side note, why was David Falk at the Clipper game last night? He should be banned from Clipper games. Was he there to see Bibby?

    If anyone can build a good team from scratch, it’s Dunleavy. He’s proved it in Milwaukee and continued the tradition for the Clippers.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 10:03 am

  7. First2One00 Said,

    Ihope the Clippers don’t get in any financial trouble this off season for making desperation moves. Rudy Gay is not a max deal player, he’d deserve a contract around the same figures that we offered Chris Kaman or Corey Magette. He’s probably the only option we have available to us that would consider coming to LA. We have tons of talent and cap room, it should be good for something. First priority is getting a coach and setting up a table that will show us what type of system we’re gonna run in LA. If this team wants to run its going to be impossible with Kaman so it wouldn’t come to me as a surprise if we traded him during the offseason to make some pieces fit. I think we’re in good shape and we should feel very optimistic going in to the off-season.

    [Reply]

    TNT57

    TNT57 Reply:

    Sterling is awful, but he rarely pays more than what the player is worth. Baron was a major miscalculation but everyone was onboard when the deal first happen.

    [Reply]

    First2One00

    First2One00 Reply:

    Well Sterling has came out publicly to say that he’s willing to spend what it takes to turn this franchise around.. Actions speak louder than words, but we’ll just have to wait during the offseason and see what type of offers the clippers will make. We do know that if there’s a free agent that we know will turn the fortunes around for this franchise sterling will go balls out. Same thing he did with Kobe Bryant, he knows there’s only a handful of athletes that can really turn his franchise around and for the chance to see a positive growth in the franchise i think its worth it. I think the Baron deal was based on bad judgement. They signed him based on what did his last season @ Golden state which was a contract year for him. Had Mike Dunleavy made better judgement he would have looked at it from the big picture perspective and realized that this is a guy that doesn’t give it 100% each night and Baron is a guy who has had problems with his coaches throughout his career. Baron’s signing was just Dunleavy being DUMBleavy

    [Reply]

    SamMays

    SamMays Reply:

    GM Dunleavy went for Baron because he desperately wanted to help coach Dunleavy keep his job… It was a desperation move to try and win right away with Brand and Baron… Had Dunleavy only been GM, I think he would have been smart enough to stay off Baron…

    Too bad. What a waste of $65,000,000 that’s been.

    [Reply]

    jgroove

    jgroove Reply:

    I’m starting to agree with you…and who in their right minds would take him now?

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 10:37 am

  8. john Said,

    I don’t think wade is any more or less realistic than LBJ…

    Assuming we feature a lineup next year of baron, ej, blake, kaman & DJ, we’d be looking for a 3…not that we’d say ‘no’ to Wade…

    The only top-tier 3s that will be available are LBJ and Joe Johnson. Both of them seem like long shots to leave their winning teams for a messed up Clippers club. Not sure what we’re gonna look like going into next season.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 10:59 am

  9. Aaron Said,

    I like to think that they wouldn’t make these moves unless they thought they had a realistic shot at getting a top-tier guy like LeBron, D-Wade, Joe Johnson, etc. LeBron and D-Wade would completely change the fortunes of this franchise and Joe Johnson would at least ensure that we make the playoffs.

    I don’t think the Clippers should depend on the draft to net them any kind of starting-caliber player. The odds of getting a John Wall or Evan Turner are pretty slim, so we should just hope that we get a usable guy at a reasonable price.

    [Reply]

    SamMays

    SamMays Reply:

    But the draft happens first. We’ll know if we’re getting one of them before free agent signings can start…. And the way we’re tanking, the odds of getting Wall or Turner get better and better.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 11:00 am

  10. TNT57 Said,

    I still feel like LeBron is in it to prove something and that’s that he’s better than Kobe. Where can he do that with more drama than Staples Center? Can you imagine. It’s something out of Shakespeare. The new prince invades the old princes castle and slays him, becoming the real King. Cliipers vs Lakers in the Western finals? 7 games at Staples? The biggest media town in the world divided and tearing the building down to witness the battle? PRICELESS.

    [Reply]

    Chris McDougall

    Chris McDougall Reply:

    That’s what I’m hoping for. Not likely to happen, but if it did then that’s NBA history for years to come.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 11:17 am

  11. Curtis Said,

    Whatever happens, we better have a winning record next season and make the playoffs. I’m still sick that we’re forced to throw in the towel so early and have to wait until next October to get our expectations back up.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 11:17 am

  12. VH Said,

    Question for DJ or KA, isn’t a max offer expected to be more like $16.5MM or $17MM, if the clippers don’t hit that magic number of what it will take to make a max offer, then what? It seems like that would limit the options quite a bit.

    [Reply]

    D.J. Foster

    D.J. Foster Reply:

    The max contract number is 30% of the total salary cap number. Right now, the cap for next year is being predicted to come in at 53.5, which would put the max contract at 16.05.

    The Clippers are hovering right around that mark after you calculate their first round pick hold and other roster slot holds.

    The only thing I can think of if the Clippers are too short of a max deal is they could waive DeAndre Jordan. I don’t see that happening though. If an LBJ or Wade or even a Joe Johnson come here, 500,000 dollars in the first year isn’t going to be make or break for them. That can easily be made up in incentives and other contract bonuses.

    [Reply]

    avonhun

    avonhun Reply:

    ahh, thank you, that makes sense.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 11:25 am

  13. humbleathletics Said,

    KA,

    i know its not really your style, but a lot of us on here are craving hypotheticals for next season. with your inner-urchin and knowledge of the cap / trade exceptions etc, please fancy us and throw out a couple of offseason scenarios. obviously if we get lebron, nobody will be concerned with who else we bring in. but in the probable event that he does not come here, what are some of your visions for this team going forward?

    [Reply]

    Kevin Arnovitz

    Kevin Arnovitz Reply:

    Very glad you asked.

    I wrote on this last night: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/13475/the-clippers-get-ready-for-summer-2010

    [Reply]

    humbleathletics

    humbleathletics Reply:

    thanks! i must have missed it.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 11:31 am

  14. Press Clippings: 2/18/10 « Clippers Press Room Said,

    [...] Some General Thoughts About the Transactions – Clipperblog.com [...]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 12:00 pm

  15. Deez Nutz Said,

    What are the chances of someone like Ray Allen or Tracy McGrady (either guy on a 1- or 2-year deal) being the answer at the 3? If you’re not getting LBJ, Wade, or Bosh, can you really go 5 years out on Rudy Gay? Obviously we’re only able to entertain these discussions through the massive good fortune of Clippers BFF David Falk, who fortuitously took EB away. If only BD had walked too.

    [Reply]

    JaySee

    JaySee Reply:

    Ray Allen is strictly a 2. TMac for 1 year might be a good option if he’s healthy. I’d rather have TMac for 1 year than an overpaid Rudy Gay.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 12:23 pm

  16. crimelaw Said,

    Team is hopeless with Kamen no matter who they get. He gets in the way of everything. You don’t need a shoot first,turnover waiting to happen,defenseless big man in the unlikely event any of those guys come. Moreover, he’ll clog up the middle & impede the development of Griffen who likes to work inside. Trade Kamen or dump him for the first warm body you can find.

    [Reply]

    TNT57

    TNT57 Reply:

    I AGREE 100 PERCENT. TRADE KAMAN NOW! He’s the basketball equivalent to a special needs child. Sweet, lovable, harmless and never going to grow up or have an average IQ. He’s lost out there on defense which he completely stopped playing while we had Camby. He thinks he’s Kobe and that’s a mess. TRADE HIM NOW. Go get Amare. Can you imagine Amare, Blake and Jordon roaming the paint? Kaman is over and done.

    [Reply]

    kicks

    kicks Reply:

    As I have said earlier today, “crimelaw” has hoops accumen and should be considered as a serious candidate for the head coaching job next season. He seems to know more about the game, apparently based on his long experience, than most of the assistant and head coaches out there. You can watch the top flight teams and see all the give and gos, moving without the ball, backdoor, pick and roll, and constant motion. I think he knows it well from his background as he seems to have had a good basketball mind.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 12:25 pm

  17. Mike Wr Said,

    Looking around the league, the Knicks are now well under the cap and could afford 2 super-stars. Kudos to Donnie Walsh, one of the best in the business, for making it happen. I’ve often thought that the Pacers made a real mistake when they brought Bird in to learn under Walsh. The team is now a mess and still hasn’t been blown up. Miami is also in great shape. Both New York and Miami are very attractive markets despite what fans in Los Angeles may think.

    When we look back in a few years, I think we’ll see that NBA salaries peaked in the summer of 2008. In the new economy players will play for less. I just hope they can avoid a lockout/strike in 2011.

    The Clips are well-positioned. They’ll have cash to spend in a buyer’s market. Will they make the right decision and not over-reach and super star dollars to a non-super star?

    [Reply]

    MG

    MG Reply:

    What makes NY an “attractive market”? Are you just talking about the media market? Because the team itself is not attractive at all. They’ll have to renounce David Lee to have enough for 2 max players, leaving pretty much Gallinari, Chandler and Harrington as pretty much the only two guys who would play on any other team. And none of those guys are anything more than role players.

    Walsh did a good job cleaning house, but he also drafted Gallinari, who hasn’t done much thus far, and Jordan Hill, who’s been a complete non-factor.

    The Heat offer a good situation because of their location, Wade, cap space and some actual talent on the roster. Chicago is also a nice situation with their youth, cap space and big city life. NY is only a factor because NY media is a hype machine. They just assume people want to live in NY. But those who weren’t born in NY aren’t really pining to move there.

    [Reply]

    First2One00

    First2One00 Reply:

    I agree 100%, NY has the least talent, the least players. TWO superstars wouldn’t take New York far, Boston needed 3 ex superstars to get a title. Will two superstars and a supporting cast of C and D list players be enough to beat other teams in the east?? I don’t think so. The only teams worth noting as “players” in this summer are Miami, Chicago, and possibly the Clippers. These 3 teams offer location, talent, and money. Miami and Chicago have the biggest advantages because they are in the eastern conference… the same conference that allows sub 500 teams to make the playoffs. The west is packed with talented teams and it takes actual work to make it in. So we’re at a huge disadvantage when it comes to where our teams stands

    [Reply]

    Mike Wr

    Mike Wr Reply:

    I disagree with your comment about Gallinari who will be a nice player once he gains more experience. Yes, he had some back issues last year and played very little. If he stays healthy, I think he has great upside. Keep in mind he’s only 21 years old. An excellent 3 point shooter, close to 40%, with great size to play the 3. If the Knicks ever started winning again, it would be a circus there. New York is a hotbed for basketball and the city offers lots of visibility, opportunities for endorsements and outside business deals.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 12:29 pm

  18. Beard The Curse Said,

    Yawn. Another wait til next year stamped on thi years media guide. What makes anyone think it will ever work out for us? Ever ?

    Wake me up in October.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 1:33 pm

  19. jgroove Said,

    This will be very exciting. Who gets to overpay for Stephen Jackson???? Start the countdown clock now!

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 2:02 pm

  20. SamMays Said,

    The Clippers are always more exciting from June – October than from November – May… Let’s get this season over with and get to off-season when the Clippers shine.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 3:38 pm

  21. Lou Said,

    Good post Sam. Also Clippers Fans are the best scouting college players. We spend from January to March looking for the best possible player in the draft.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 4:20 pm

  22. RTT Said,

    The trades that have taken part in the last few days have their bad sides to them but really, I would say almost, if not all, of it should be looked at as positive. Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw are good players, certainly not scrubs. In Clippernese, that translates to a modern day above average Marko Jaric and a psuedo Quentin Richardson, circa the Miles’ days.

    We lost Camby who was valuable to our team and while I believe we could have gotten more from his value, we didn’t get shafted as it seems like we do, most of the time by the management around. If I take anything from Camby’s departure, it’s the fact that he seemed genuinely upset to be leaving us and the possibility of him coming back is above 60/40% for next year.

    We lose Thornton who used to be untouchable but has regressed into something that’s not going to fit with the team, especially now that Camby’s rebounding is gone. In Sebastian Telfair, we’re losing nothing and gaining some possibly valuable cap space. You never know with Dunleavy, he might spend the money on bringing his kid here for all we could tell.

    Drew Gooden will fit in well with this team if we don’t buy him out and if he can play up to how he usually does, I would have no reservations with keeping him past this season, at a lowered price of course.

    All in all, I think that we should all breathe a sigh of relief and know that although the rest of this season may be tough (I think we’ll actually do better) and it’s been said a million times before in other years, the best times are ahead of us and soon.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 4:53 pm

  23. FireDunleavy .com Said,

    Lets do the math
    Kobe = TT + Mobley
    Lebron = ? + ?

    [Reply]

    Clipped12

    Clipped12 Reply:

    Lebron = Championship?

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 5:14 pm

  24. JaySee Said,

    I think we have a much stronger chance of landing LeBron or Wade than we do JJ. JJ has no reason to come to LA. Atlanta’s a good team on the Eastern Conference. Wade and LeBron are REAL stars and would love the glamor of LA and being pitted against and compared to Kobe on a nightly basis. The Clippers roster is much more enticing than the Heat as well. Right now I think our best bet is Wade. Have EG be a strong 6th man. There’s no problem with Butler and resigning Outlaw at the 3 if we have Wade. If Outlaw doesn’t resign, we can go get QRoss back.

    [Reply]

    Beard The Curse

    Beard The Curse Reply:

    Lebron James a Clipper. Dwayne Wade a clipper. Joe Johnson a clipper.

    Which one sounds the most realistic? If anything we know it’s all about money with JJ, he begged off a title contending team in Phx to get paid and be the man in Atlanta (when they were horrid), he’ll do that again if we target him.

    [Reply]

    bongstradamus

    bongstradamus Reply:

    None of the above.

    Every one of them is on a playoff team already that can pay them more than anyone else can.

    6 Months ago i would have said we had an outside chance at JJ, but if I were him, I wouldnt leave atlanta if they gave me a max deal. That team has tons of young talent and goes to the playoffs and appreciates his game and what he has to offer. Atlanta is also well known as a huge party town for NBA teams that go through there. Thats how they got him in the first place, I doubt theyd just let him leave.

    If they do leave their present teams, theyll go to New York since they have enough cash for 2 max contracts. Its also the biggest market in the US, if not the world. They’ve also won championships, have great fans, and a long history of being competitive.

    I think the idea that these stars want to share the stage with Kobe by playing on the Clippers is pretty far fetched.

    Bosh might like to come to LA after years of freezing in Toronto, but he’s frustrated with losing on the Raptors, so I doubt the Clippers are an attractive location for him even though we have money. Personally, I think he chooses between Miami to play with Wade (assuming he and LeBron dont become roommates in NY) or Houston to be close to home.

    When guys say they want to win, you can pretty much write off LA as a destination. We’ve never won a championship and havent shown that we can build a consistently winning franchise. They are cold hard facts, but they definitely sway a players opinion if they are out to win a ring. When they say they want to get paid, then we start to look attractive.

    The most realistic players we have a chance of signing are TMac, Amare or Rudy Gay. Carlos Boozer might also be a candidate, he did leave LeBron to earn the bread in Utah. Maybe we luck out and Camby or Ray Allen comes here, but even those guys I think will get better offers from other franchises in the playoff hunt even though they are 35. On a lower tier, we might be able to attract Brad Miller, Mike Miller and Jermaine O’Neal…but something tells me O’Neal and Dunleavy never got along.

    Out of that list, only 3 players play SF, our biggest weakness. 5 are PF’s, and we’re pretty well stocked as it is on bigs.

    Are you starting to understand why I was so mad about not getting anything out of these trades? We also facilitated a trade for Jamison to Cleveland, which makes them even more attractive to the guy we gutted our franchise to buy a lottery ticket to this offseason.

    [Reply]

    Chris McD

    Chris McD Reply:

    I agree with Beard in that Joe Johnson’s a more likely candidate. And if you bench Gordon, wouldn’t Bosh be a more likely candidate than D. Wade? Not that I’d object to either of them. I’m sure Bosh would love to get out of Toronto and live in LA.

    [Reply]

    FireDunleavy .com

    FireDunleavy .com Reply:

    The only chance of landing anyone good is if they get Wall. A few million isn’t going to make a difference to someone that wants to win, and playing in LA they can make it up in endorsements.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 18th, 2010 at 5:19 pm

  25. Ben S. Said,

    16 million wont be enuff to sign a “star”

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 19th, 2010 at 12:29 am

  26. kicks Said,

    The more I read comments by crimelaw, the more I am convinced that he should be the new coach next year. He seems to have had a fundamental education in the nuances of basketball unlike the majority of assorted assistant and head coaches out there. Do you think Donleavy might remember him from the stands. I am sure Bill Fitch still does.

    [Reply]

    Posted on February 20th, 2010 at 11:51 am

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