I spent the weekend at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston. Last year, the same conference was held in a small academic building on the campus of MIT in Cambridge for 400 attendees. This year, the numbers exploded — one thousand individuals wore name tags, along with 400 people on a wait list. Those in Boston included NBA executives and prominent agents. Organizers moved the conference across the Charles River to the Boston Convention Center in order to accommodate the demand.
The substance of the conference was pretty much what you’d expect. Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey (the founder of the conference), Analytics godfather Dean Oliver (who works for the Nuggets), Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, Portland Trail Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard, Boston Celtics assistant general manager Mike Zarren and others who apply advanced statistical analytics to better their teams spoke on various panels about the value of this discipline in generating wins. Academics presented papers on everything from the value of a blocked shot to how best to maximize shot distribution among a team’s players.
All in all, 16 of the 30 NBA organizations were represented at the conference by executives or statisticians — that’s about double the number of teams who had paid attendees in 2009. It was heartening to run into smart young thinkers in this area who were free agents last year, but have been hired in the past 12 months by teams. Kevin Pelton, who has worked tirelessly in this field, just signed on with the Indiana Pacers. Ryan Parker, of Basketball Geek, has joined the Portland Trail Blazers. Jon Nichols, a brilliant grad student at Harvard in information technology, has been hired by an undisclosed team. For all the findings and discussions, the most profound takeaway from the conference was the overwhelming evidence that the application of advanced analytics is taking over the NBA. What was once a novelty has become a full-fledged movement. Not every team has embraced these tools, but as Dean Oliver pointed out, the smart ones have. Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Portland, San Antonio have probably been the 10 most aggressive organizations. What do they have in common? Every one of these teams has a record of .500 or better this morning. If I’m a fan of a specific team, I want my team to be on that list and, unless my squad is winning titles on the strength of its personnel decisions (and checkbook), I’d be bothered if they weren’t.
Some teams executives will tell you that the League has gotten smart about furnishing teams with more extensive data (stats like deflections), and that the need to have experts on the payroll isn’t necessary. But there’s a vast difference between data and informed conclusions. The former are easy to come by; the latter requires great expertise. As Zarren said in the session on basketball analytics, “You can do two things: get more data, or use statistical techniques with the data that you have.” As we move forward in the empirical age, it strikes me that if you don’t have the proper personnel who can understand and utilize these techniques, your organization is going to be left behind.
The Clippers aren’t ignorant of advanced metrics. Mike Dunleavy made the wise decision to shift Rasual Butler into the starting lineup in part because basic plus-minus data were telling him that was the smart thing to do. Back in October, team executives said they targeted Craig Smith in the off-season because they loved his efficiency numbers. But these observations barely penetrate the surface of the shale. There is so much to be understood, a fact more and more teams are beginning to grasp.
Teams are very proprietary of what they’re learning and even whom they’re hiring to crunch these numbers. For all we know, the Clippers have an army of credentialed statisticians studying data, making unique discoveries about the team and passing along those findings to the decision makers in Playa Vista. If that’s not the case, Clippers fans should hope it soon becomes a reality. In an age where information is king, NBA teams, global corporations, governments and individuals can’t afford to be playing catch-up.
14 Responses
Given the huge investments teams make in the players, it seems crazy not to invest in the analytics. Many years ago the Oakland A’s got the jump on doing it in baseball and it took years for the other teams to catch up. If the Clips don’t jump on the bandwagon now, it will just take them longer to catch up to the rest of the league. And, unfortunately, the Clips are not the Yankees who can outspend everyone in baseball to offset personnel mistakes.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 7:12 am
Having a STATMASTER by your side won’t hurt. But sports isn’t about the STAGED entertainment. No one can predict the result. That’s why all sports are unique. The players can play differently on any given day. Temparament can differ from morning to evening. One day a coach may be alert and another day he may be into yawning state.
Point is: The game is about the PRESENT. You don’t want players & coaches to get obsessed with machine generated stats.
Just play the game. By the way don’t forget to use your brain.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 8:41 am
And thank you Kevin for keeping us informed.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 8:48 am
Unfortunately Clippers have been lavishing on behind the curves ever since D.STERLING
took over this team decades ago. And they’ll remain that way forever.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 9:43 am
Larry Brown is calling the Clippers? Must be using them as a bargining chip.
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TNT57 Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 10:24 am
Where did you read this?
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FireDunleavy .com Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
Hoopshype via
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/frank_hughes/03/08/john.wall/
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 9:58 am
All the stats in the world won’t save your team if it has no leaders. No heart. No desire to be great. Show me one player, just one, on the current Clipper team that plays with that kind of fire every night? There isn’t one. LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Durant, Parker, Dirk, these men play with purpose beyond numbers. Until we find a player like this to lead and demand maximum effort every night, we’ll be lousy. Baron Davis is a cancer. His pre-game nonsense of being the last player out of his warm-ups is gross to watch because it hasn’t been earned. It’s false bravado from a player who is only great in his own mind. Younger players watch this charade every night and figure that’s the way to act. Davis needs to be cut or benched so we don’t have to witness this embarrassment game after game. Watch how he holds up the game in an effort to draw attention to himself and then goes out and plays like a dog. Shame on him for acting this way and shame on us for buying it.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 10:21 am
It doesn’t take a basketball genius to tell that Baron Davis’s effect on the team isn’t always positive. If the Clips were utilizing all of the analytical data that’s available, they wouldn’t have signed Baron to begin with.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
Any team that doesn’t have a statistician is definitely behind the curve. At worst the employee is a tax write off on your payroll at best…. well ask the Boston Red sox what happened when they hired a statistician… watch the 60 minutes report below.
cut & paste below
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/27/60minutes/main3974752.shtml
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
[...] The English: Kevin Arnovitz asks if fans, of the Clippers specifically, should feel cheated if their teams are not doing all they can to be on the cutting edge of basketball analytics. [ClipperBlog] [...]
Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
When I heard about this, I hoped Dunleavy was in attendance. I’m disappointed the Clippers did not send any representative. It doesn’t have to be the end-all-and-be-all in personnel decisions, but merely one tool. Information is king, at least obtain the information and then analyze whether it has value. A relatively small expense for the Clippers to attend for a man that has indicated he is willing to spend to improve the team.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
I’ve been reading up a lot on advanced stats in the last year. It is really good to see that the interest is expanding league wide, but there is still a great amount of debate over which of these advanced stats are really effective. For instance, just yesterday David Berri who is somewhat of a leading figure in the bball stat world (despite being an arrogant prick) posted an article about how there is an extremely low correlation coefficient for adjusted +/- year to year. This was one of the booming stats of the last year that now appears to have very little use league wide. It is one thing to have stat junkies, its another thing to have good ones that actually help your team win.
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/03/07/john-hollinger-dean-oliver-and-some-other-people-comment-on-plusminus/
At the trade deadline I think Houston surpised a lot of people by trading Landry, an advanced stat superstar, for Kevin Martin, who does not stack up well. I remember hearing an interview with Morey saying advanced stats arent the end all in their decision making. Its important to remember that.
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Posted on March 9th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
[...] You can find that story here. [...]
Posted on March 15th, 2010 at 10:52 pm
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