The Clippers are in turmoil and have announced they “want to win now.” Is this possible? Since trading away Marcus Camby the Clippers have played around 8 points worse than an average NBA team. Surprisingly, most of the poor play has occurred when Steve Blake is in. Blake had played great for Portland this year, but if you look at all minutes since the Camby trade the Clippers performance breaks down as follows:
- Blake or Novak in (mostly Blake) the Clippers in 342 minutes have played 14 points worse than average.
- Rest of time the Clippers have played 2 points better than average,
It may be that Blake is having trouble learning the offense, I do not know, but he has clearly been hurting the Clippers. Some other amazing stats:
- In the 94 minutes Outlaw and Baron are in together, the Clippers play 11 points better than average.
- Butler, Baron Davis, Gordon, Kaman and Gooden have been solid, playing 4 points better than average in 128 minutes.
- Butler, Davis, Gordon, Kaman and Smith have been great: In 53 min this lineup plays 18 points better than average.
- In 55 min with Outlaw and Gooden in and Kaman out the Clippers play 11 points better than average.
Building around the things that work should enable the Clippers to win some games. Perhaps then LeBron can be convinced that a nucleus of Kaman, Gordon, Outlaw, and Baron and a coach of his choosing is where he wants to land in 2010.
Winston fails to mention Blake Griffin, who should only add to the Clippers’ future.
ADDENDUM
Haralabos Voulgaris e-mails:
There is really nothing meaningful Adjusted numbers can determine from such small samples, his biggest minute sample is 128 minutes and you really can’t do anything to predict future success on a sample that small, in fact even using a whole season’s worth of your most-used lineup. For instance, in 2009 Boston’s most-used lineup played 4267 possessions (their starters). If you tried using one year of lineup data to predict future outcomes you would have faired much worse than using two full seasons’ worth of lineup data. I’d have a hard time stating with any level of authority any findings better than or worse than average using one full season of data, without a very sophisticated modeling technique. I can’t imagine using the clearest of crystal balls could draw any conclusions using 100 minutes of data.
17 Responses
Dude. I feel like steve blake makes better plays. I can’t believe this stat.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
I am AMAZED by the data because my perception is that the team flows better with Blake in and Baron out.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
I suppose it’s a delusion created by the fact when Blake is in I am not screaming at the TV every time Baron jacks up a three that clangs off the rim.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 1:02 pm
When you bring a man in with the end of the bench, what do you expect.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
I could be going out on a limb here, but I think it’s because Blake isn’t a scoring threat. On the other hand, he rarely turns the ball over, good passer, and plays fairly well on the defensive end.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Isn’t it just as ludicrous for Clips fans to think they’ll sign Lebron James as it is for Knicks fans. The Clips aren’t as poorly managed as the Knicks, but we’re not that much better either.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
Ric, I don’t think that either team has a particularly good chance to land LeBron or Wade. One thing that is undeniable, though, is that the Clippers have far better pieces already in place than the Knicks, who have Wilson Chandler and Danilo Galinari and little else.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
It’s kind of hard to believe that the offense does worse with Blake in than with Baron. I’d be curious to see how he formulates these numbers.
laknights Reply:
March 12th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Uh, I think he calculated time with each of the line ups listed.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
The stat for Blake is misleading. Look who he’s in with — the second unit. Marginal NBA players at best. There’s a reason why Portland gave up on Outlaw. Deandre is horrible (and expendable). What most analysts have missed for why Dunleavy was fired: signing Baron Davis to a gazillion dollar contract when he is so obviously not worth the price tag. That’s on Dunleavy and Sterling is really regretting that move. And to think that the Clips would use him as a carrot to bring Lebron here. THATS a joke! Lebron knows that Baron sucks. Clips would be smart to see if Houston still wants BD over the summer. The only pieces I would keep from this team are: Kaman, Gordon, Griffin (obviously), Butler, Blake and Smith – the latter three as reserves. The rest, well, we can lose without them. This team needs a real point guard SO bad. Darren Collison or Ty Lawson could have really helped this team, but no. There’s just too many people who cant judge talent in the NBA. And unfortunately Dunleavy was one of them. That’s why he’s gone.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
LeBron isnt coming here, so why do we keep talking about it? Name your coach and GM? Give me a break. It’s just a ploy to sell tickets and generate interest.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 4:15 pm
Here’s the key stats for our point guard. Everything else is deceptive.
ESPN ranks NBA players by overall field goal percentage and three point shooting percentaage, both by each position and by all positions together.
In all positions together:
— Overall field goal percentage, Baron Davis is 121 out of 123 players who’ve played enought to be ranked.
– Three point field goal percentage, Davis is dead last . . 123 out of 123. (That’s really bad.)
Among point guards alone:
— Overall field goal percentage, Davis is 26 out of 27.
– Three point shooting, is again dead last . . 37 out of 37. He’s shooting .280. The next worst pint guard is shooting .321. (That’s even worse than really bad.)
Davis has to go.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Losing to captain crack and his crew of flunkies I don’t need stats. Analyzing stats for this team is like counting the licks it takes to get to the center of a tootsie pop, yea maybe you can do it, but why the hell would you?
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
I can’t believe the stat regarding Blake. The team seems to perform better when he’s in. Baron is erratic at best on offense. Has his great moments but hurts the team just as often.
I have my doubts that Deandre will develop. Both Baron and Deandre have extremely fragile egos and lack the mental stability and strength needed to be a steady presence the team so desperately needs.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
stats don’t always tell the truth. look at john hollinger’s power rankings for example, it’s utter crap.
Posted on March 12th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
Baron Davis is a bum!
Posted on March 13th, 2010 at 8:27 am
Check Kamen’s stats on ESPN list. He has one of the worst shooting percentages for centers in the league & takes more shots than almost all of the centers in the league. Clearly a bad combination & why his scoring average is misleading. In addition, his defense is atrocious. Unless the clipper’s get a coach who can make sure that he & Davis take less shots-assuming they can’t get rid of them- & can make sure others get into the flow of the game,things will remain the same ie. hopeless.
Posted on March 13th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
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