Thursday, May 17, 2012

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Tuesday Mailbag

Posted by D.J. Foster on September 21, 2010 at 1:27 pm

Ah, Tuesday Mailbag. Much less catchy… but also much less cranky than a Monday version. Again, thanks to everyone who sent in questions this week. Let’s get to it:

Why did the Clippers sign Rasual Butler to a one year deal? I felt that he played selfishly last year, taking contested shots, not moving the ball around, and playing lackluster defense at times.  It seemed to me he was trying to fill up his stats to get an offseason contract.  The fact that he didn’t get signed to a multi-year deal by any other team in the NBA confirms to me that I was correct about his bad season. This signing takes away valuable playing time from a rookie like Aminu who the Clippers have a vested long-term interest in developing.  This decision has been puzzling me all summer, thanks.  –John M

Breene Murphy: John, you’ve got company. I was slightly confused by the signing as well. But I think Butler will be used in a different manner than last year. I think he will see much more time backing up Gordon at the 2 and filling in more sparingly at the 3 because Ryan Gomes is a similar player, but both rebounds better (career 5.1 to 2.7 rbs.) and he’s just as good of an outside shooter (both career 36%, although Gomes shot 37.2% to Butler’s 34%). As for developing Aminu, I’m hoping they’ll still give him consistent minutes, get him into a professional routine, because he clearly has the upside to develop. And while he doesn’t have the outside shot yet (the reason for Gomes and Butler), I’m excited about seeing Aminu playing a little bit of power forward, his main position in college, in the meantime.

D.J. Foster: I’m way on the other side of the fence on this one. He’s on a one year deal for 2.4 million, so it was a no-risk signing. He can play both wing spots. He’s streaky, but he’s another guy who can stretch the floor. In a toned down role, both in terms of minutes and shooting opportunities, he should be valuable to the second unit. He’s a good rotation piece, and it’s crucial to have depth with the amount of injury prone players on the roster. As for Aminu, maybe he should be playing more four than three in his first year anyhow…but that’s another discussion.

How many roster spots are still open and who will be competing for those spots? Anyone else we should know about?Dara K.

BM: Right now, the Clippers have 13 players on guaranteed contracts. If you watched summer league or you caught Arnovitz’ article a few weeks back, you should be excited about Marqus Blakely making the team. He’s a hyper athletic small forward out of UVM that is looking to make the team by his defense and his athleticism. He’s developing a shot with the eye to have a Bruce Bowen/Wesley Matthews/Matt Barnes type career. And oh man can he dunk.

DJF: I think who we see now (Blakely included) is who will be on the opening day roster. I highly doubt they’ll add someone else and carry the full 15 players going into the season – GM’s almost always leave that roster slot open for midseason acquisitions, etc.

Kaman’s play was improved last season after taking a summer working on his shot-has he shown any new wrinkles to his game during this summer’s pick-up games at the training facility?Allan F.

‪‪BM:  D.J., ‪did you get to see any of Kaman’s pickup games at the training facility? Because I didn’t.

DJF:  I hear he’s added an unstoppable 720 dunk.

BM:  ‪I like it. Too bad he doesn’t have the mane anymore, that would look awesome on a 720, all frilling out.

DJF:  ‪It’s not the same without the hair really.

We haven’t seen enough games at the practice facility to really tell, but Kaman looks like he’s in good shape and ready to go again this year.

We’ve talked a lot about what the Clippers offense will look like this season–How do you foresee this squad performing on the other side of the ball?John P.

BM: The most important part of defense is effort and the best news is that VDN got his Bulls teams to play hard, all year, both years despite being outside the playoffs at the end of both years (they surged in April twice). The next most important thing is communication, which worries me. The team has a lot of new faces so I think it will take some time to gel. There are going to be missed assignments.

What I do like about the team is how athletic they are. No matter how well they play team defense, you’re going to see some highlight-reel plays. I’m already waiting the Eric Bledsoe swipe that leads to an Eric Gordon slam and the Blake Griffin block that leads to BD bowling through to drop it back to a trailing Blake for a jam.

It’s going to be a work in progress, but at least it’ll be progress.

DJF: Del Negro had a few good individual and team defenders (Hinrich, Noah, Deng) and a few not so good defenders (Rose, Ben Gordon) while he was in Chicago. His teams were young, but they always performed well defensively and picked up the schemes pretty easily. That’s a promising sign going into the season, but as Breene said, there will definitely be lapses.

What about Willie Warren? I’ve heard that if he had entered the draft with Blake Griffin he would’ve been a 1st round pick. Do you think he is that good or did BG just make him look that good?Anthony L.

BM: What we found out from last season: Willie Warren isn’t The Man. I think that‘s the problem with last year, he wanted to be (and was forced to be). His percentages plummeted and his turnovers rose, but I think with a designated role he could absolutely shine. The hard part about this Clipper team though, is that there are so many young guys that need time. So whether Willie gets the minutes will be a huge factor into how we eventually evaluate his career.

DJF: I don’t think he has the typical upside of a first round pick, but he could develop into a solid role player. He’s not the only college player to experience a sophomore slump, ya know?

What kind of numbers do you expect from Blake Griffin this year?  Would 13 PPG, 8 RPG, 50% FG%, and 65+ games played be considered a success?Sam K.

BM: Unless you’re Greg Oden or Yao Ming, I don’t consider 65 games a success. Decent? Sure. I mean the Clipper Organization would have loved that from last year, but that’s only in comparison to missing all of the year. Playing 65 games is missing 20% of the season. Let’s make it like grades: I want him to shoot for an A plus with the realistic goal being that 90-92%, so 74 games is a success for me. Blake’s injury was freak, he has recovered and he takes great care of his body. As for the per game averages, I think 13 and 8 would be a good season, definitely a success. What’s nice is that he doesn’t have to carry the entire load in his first year, seeing as Kaman returns to the team after his first All-Star bid. It wouldn’t surprise me if Blake averages better than that, though.

Who do you have representing the US for their London team? Do you think there will still be a spot for Eric Gordon on that team, and do you think Blake Griffin would be able to make an impact in the international game if he were selected for 2012?David C.

BM: In reverse order: If Blake projects into the NBA like everyone thinks, then yes, he’ll be a great addition. But it’s still to be seen. As for Eric, I think there is a very, very outside chance that he makes the team. But still a chance. The reason being that his style fits International Play so well. He’s a physical defender and he’s a great outside shot that can, when needed, take it to the rack. There aren’t a lot of options on the wing for the Americans in 2012 like that. Derrick Rose? Russell Westbrook? Great players, not great shooters.

Okay, now let’s look at the 2008 team to see what’s going on:

Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony will probably all return barring some sort of injury or playoff fatigue (most likely for playoff fatigue/age: Dwayne Wade and Kobe, but I still say they play). So that right there is 8.

Quick insertion: The next guarantee will be Kevin Durant who, if you saw him all summer, will probably be the number one scoring option. KD can play.

Carlos Boozer would have a great chance to return, but I don’t see him in the same company as those first 9. Still, let’s make him number 10.

So what does this team need? Maybe outside shooting (KD takes pretty good care of that, but they’ll need one more) and another big body. I would love to see Gordon and Blake snag those last two spots, as unlikely as it may be, but they’d fit in. Blake will have lots of competition for a big man spot: Kevin Love (played great this summer), Amaré Stoudemire (has bad knees and is not your standard Team Player), Al Jefferson (knee problems, but has a great post game), David Lee (energy/rebound guy that would get all the put backs and dirt rebounds), Lamar Odom (great this summer but inconsistent historically), and Brook Lopez (sound young center). That’s a lot of competition but Blake could put together two great years and snag that spot. Possible? Yes. Easy? No. I have a gut feeling that Kevin Love will sneak into that spot, maybe Brook Lopez.

As for the other spot, assuming they go for a shooter and not this summer’s revelatory garbage man, Iguodala, Eric basically has Stephen Curry and OJ Mayo to fight for the designated sniper spot. With exception of the last few games’ shooting, Eric played remarkably well. Although, I think Mayo has it in him to earn a spot. So it’s going to be close. But screw it, I’m making the long shot guess and predicting he makes it, Coach K loved him.

Do you believe Kaman can continue his All-Star performance from last season?Anthony L.

BM: Last year, Kaman rebounded well even with Camby ripping down boards the first half of the season, so I don’t see why he can’t keep the rebound numbers around 9-10 a game. Offensively, though, he’s going to have to share some touches with Blake Griffin and you could easily see (foreshadowing the next point) Eric Gordon getting a boost in the offense as well.

Do you think it is realistic to believe that Eric Gordon will lead the Clippers in scoring this season? He has obviously thrived this summer in World play. Although the international style of play is very different from that of the NBA, one cannot ignore his outstanding play in the tournament where he conveyed to us his mean defense and pinpoint accuracy from three-point-land. E.J. reminds me a lot of Ben Gordon. Let’s compare their stats in their respective rookie and sophomore seasons: EG- 16.1ppg, 16.9 ppg. BG- 15.1 ppg, 16.9 ppg. Relatively similar numbers. Do you know how many points per game Gordon (Ben) averaged in his third season? Almost 22. – Coby W.

BM: While it wouldn’t shock me, there is a slight fissure in your logic. Yes, Ben Gordon did make the third year jump, but it was in large part due to his increase in minutes, going from 24 mpg to 31 mpg to 33 mpg. EJ hasn’t had the same rate of increase as he’s played 34 and 36 mpg in his first two years. That said, D.J. made a good point a few posts ago that if Eric is willing to take touches from Kevin Durant/Derrick Rose/etc. then the confidence boost could easily translate into more attempts for him. He only missed leading the team in scoring by 2 points last season and I could see him easily making that up, possibly averaging 19-20 a game, even if he doesn’t do the Ben Gordon leap to 22 ppg.

DJF: How does Ben Gordon keep sneaking into this mailbag? Anyway, I like the idea of a “leap” similar to Ben’s, as long as efficiency isn’t sacrificed. Gordon’s shooting and scoring has never been an issue – it’s his ballhandling, playmaking, and rebounding that need to start showing signs of life.

How long (if ever) will it take for Aminu to become a starting quality small forward? – E. Castro

BM: E. Castro wins the prize for the question most likely to make me look like an idiot. This is by far the most nebulous of the subjects considering that Aminu will have many players to compete for time, still has to learn a new position and adjust his shot to make him a perimeter threat and he’ll have to get used to guarding more players, NBA players, on the wing. That said, if Aminu is going to develop well, we’ll probably get a glimpse of it this year. He’ll get a few minutes and make some great plays. Then the following year, he’ll get respectable minutes, and play well. The third year seems like the right time for the first big jump for Aminu, he’ll be 22 and could inhabit those starter’s minutes. Then the fourth year, he develops into a Gerald Wallace type player: great rebounder, fantastic defender, decent outside shot and can take it to the hole, and has the ability to play both the 3 and the 4.

Side note: It’s Al-Farouq’s Birthday today. Happy Birthday, Chief!

DJF: Love the Gerald Wallace comparison. Like Wallace, it’s going to take some time for Aminu. His current skillset doesn’t exactly fit the wing. He can go one of two ways – become an efficient outside shooter over time (Wallace shot 37% from three last season after being pretty bad in prior years) or abandon it completely like Josh Smith did last year (he shot just 7 threes last after a career filled with terrible attempts from the perimeter.) Either way, if Aminu eventually resembles anything close to Wallace or Smith, that’s a very good thing.

BM: Thanks for all your questions, be sure to rub my answers back in my face if/when I’m wrong. Like you, I can’t wait for basketball season. Go Clips!

25 Responses

  1. avatar Luis Said,

    A center rotation of Kaman/Jordan/Cook

    Me no like…

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    JaySee Reply:

    It will probably be Kaman/Jordan/Griffin. Remember this team is athletic now and will want to run. Griffin can be the C when they go small.

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    D.J. Foster Reply:

    Ding ding ding. JaySee is correct.

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    Posted on September 21st, 2010 at 5:03 pm

  2. avatar lumpen Said,

    Sorry I still don’t like Cook in the team. Great questions and answers guys. If is not to late can someone tell me why Steve Blake is not in the team? Why he didn’t get a contract?

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    NRM Reply:

    because he took less for a chance to win a ring with the lakers.

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 10:11 am

  3. avatar FD Said,

    So I guess the Clippers gave up on Melo.

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 10:50 am

  4. avatar Buddahfan Said,

    DJF: I think who we see now (Blakely included) is who will be on the opening day roster. I highly doubt they’ll add someone else and carry the full 15 players going into the season – GM’s almost always leave that roster slot open for midseason acquisitions, etc.
    ==================
    Is Warren out of the picture?

    Last I heard, which could be old news, he has a non-guaranteed contract. Blakley and Warren would bring the total to 15.

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    D.J. Foster Reply:

    That 14 includes both Blakely and Warren — sorry for the wonky wording.

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 11:14 am

  5. avatar Buddahfan Said,

    720 dunk LOL

    Great for trash talking and dunk ins.

    Not very smart during a game.

    Just saying.

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    FD Reply:

    That was a joke

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    Buddahfan Reply:

    Here is a video of it being done during a game.

    It doesn’t look like Kaman though – LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mt001pBcwjM

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 11:18 am

  6. avatar Buddahfan Said,

    EJ has a good shot at making the Olympic squad for the London games.

    EJ is my second favorite Clippers player behind Griffin, However, with all due respect to EJ I think when all is said and done, that kid from down the road in Compton playing SG for the Raptors will be better than EJ.

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 11:30 am

  7. avatar FD Said,

    Clippers add Jarron Collins. They probably need another center considering Kaman usually misses a lot of games. Hoopshype also says they’re interested in Rashad McCants. Pretty boring stuff.

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    Buddahfan Reply:

    Does that put Warren on the bubble if the Clips plan to carry less than 15 under contract?

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    Breene Murphy Reply:

    Willie will be on the team. He has already signed a contract with the Clippers. http://www.nba.com/clippers/news/breakingnews_secondround_signs_100713.html

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 1:54 pm

  8. avatar Buddahfan Said,

    hoopshype

    Free agent center Jarron Collins is signing with the Clippers, agent Bob Myers told HoopsHype. about 2 hours ago via web

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 3:00 pm

  9. avatar Dump Davis Said,

    Do people here really think the Clippers are capable of running with Davis at point guard?
    Based on what from the last two years? Just because Davis often said over the last two years he wanted to run but wasnt allowed to, doesn’t mean he actually can run. He showed last season after the coaching change that he can’t. Why do you think he”ll be any different this season than he was then?

    Just because he can’t play defense and can’t remember set plays doesn’t mean he can run. It just means that he then has a better excuse for not playing defense and not knowing plays.

    Mostly it’s lousy teams that run, i.e. the Knicks and Warriors. The only good team that runs is the Suns and that’s because of Nash. Davis is no Nash. Nash is a great shooter, he’s quick and nimble and he’s a super hustler. Davis is the worst shooting guard in the league, he’s slow and lumbering and he’s a lazy dog.

    If the Clippers run, it’s an admission of how terrible they must be.

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    FD Reply:

    I’ll give him a month and see how much damage Dunleavy did to the team.

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    Clippertheorist Reply:

    One of the more extreme cases of a team that wants to get out and run would be the Celtics. At first glance, that does not seem to make sense because of factors such as lack of youth and athleticism. If you think about it a little more, the Celtics have a great defensive team that is able to get stops. When they get a stop, they have a great chance to really push it to the other basket (especially when Rondo gets the rebound) and go against a defense that really isn’t set yet.

    While the Celtics had the 5th best opponent FG% Defense and defensive rating, they only had the 22nd best pace factor (all from basketballreference.com).

    This is more of an example of fast break baskets being a situational occurrence as the result of a defensive stop rather than simply being the lifeblood of a team. I think if the Clippers improve their rebounding and defense like Coach Del Negro plans to, they may be able to emulate a similar style, but maybe an even more successful one…

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    Clippertheorist Reply:

    In my opinion, the three biggest keys to maximizing a fast break are playmaking/ball handling, athleticism and spacing (not counting the initial rebound and defensive stop).

    1) Playmaking/Ball Handling

    One of the worst statistical attributes of the Celtics teams in the past years have been their turnover rates. Last year the Celtics were second in the league in forcing opponents turnovers with 15.6/game, but they were 22nd best in turning it over themselves with 14.9 turnovers a game (stats via ESPN.com)

    While not all of those forced turnovers may have lead to opportunities to run a fast break, there have been several examples of misshandling the ball on an attempted break.

    If a team wants run a successful break, they need to make sure they don’t fumble the ball trying to get a quick shot. Turning it over during a break causes an even easier transition opportunity for the opponent.

    2) Athleticism

    In order to maximize fast break chances, a teams’ players need both to have a great deal of speed and body control to finish on the other end. Over the course of the game, endurance also plays a role as players start to lose their burst of speed.

    One interesting thing to watch in past Celtics games in the playoffs was when Tony Allen was inserted in the 2nd half of games. Even with a sniff of a fast break opportunity, a lot of the time created by his own steal or contest, Tony Allen was able to amass a huge amount of points sprinting past everyone and finishing with an easy shot at the rim. Tony Allen was a huge energizer for that team on both ends of the floor.

    Another disaster on fast break is to miss an easy close to the rim basket (as was the case too many times in FIBA play), as this allows the opponent to get a very easy transition opportunity.

    3) Spacing

    While many times fast break opportunities may not materialize in an initial easy layup or dunk, going against a half set defense allows for a few easy baskets.

    By having Rondo zooming down the floor with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce getting in position along the arc, the Celtics were able to create certain mismatches for a few of their players. By simply swinging the ball around, the Celtics were able to get an effective “transition” three pointer.

    Spacing is going to be created by running out after a defensive stop from good defensive positions and having cutters or shooters create space between themselves as they sprint down the court.

    The big question would be: how do the Clippers personel and play style fit these 3 categories?

    Last year the Clippers had one of the best transition threats in Baron Davis, but beyond that there were not many viable options along the wings. In addition, the Clippers were tied for 28th in the league with their own turnovers.

    While the playmaking does not seem satisfactory yet, the Clippers have amazing athletes such as Kaman, Gordon, and Griffin to finish the fast break in their starting line up. With all the additional athleticism on their bench, the Clippers should be able to finish breaks well if they can handle the ball.

    It would seem that the Clippers should have good spacing with Gordon and possible Gomes spreading across the arc or Gordon and Griffin slashing to the basket. The only issue would be developing the chemistry to execute this well.

    Verdict

    While the Clippers seems like they have a nice chance of maximizing a fast break, they are going to really need to improve their defense and defensive rebounding in order to create more chances.

    While the Celtics may be able to create more fast break opportunities, it is arguable that the Clippers might be able to better maximize the opportunities.

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    Clippertheorist Reply:

    One more subtle issue I just thought of during the fast break was free throw percentage. While fouling Eric Gordon may not be the best way of stopping points off a fast break, fouling Blake Griffin may be an option (at least according to his numbers in college).

    At Oklahoma, Blake Griffin shot 58.9% from the free throw line (source: http://www.soonersports.com)

    Blake Griffin has had a lot of time to practice his shooting, so hopefully this issue of Hack-a-Griffin won’t come up.

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 3:43 pm

  10. avatar Clipper Derrick Said,

    An SI article says that a “Plausible Goal” for the Clippers this year is the Playoffs.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/britt_robson/09/20/new.coaches/1.html

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 4:17 pm

  11. avatar Dump Davis Said,

    I liked the SI article on the new coaches. Here are two kwy points from it Robson made about Del Negro:

    “JOB PRIORITIES: To develop the Clippers’ young core of talent, to improve the efficiency of the offense (beginning with gifted but stubborn point guard Baron Davis)”

    “THE RIGHT HIRE? No. Del Negro doesn’t seem to possess either the strategic prowess or the personal clout to turn Davis into more of a team player or to overcome the permanent impediments of Sterling’s ownership and the Clippers’ secondary status to the Lakers in L.A.”

    Like many other people, Robson makes the incorrect assumption that Davis is good and that his only problems are in his head. I disagree wiith that. I do agree he has huge head problems, but I also don’t think he’s good, except as a distributor. He uses his head problems as a mask to cover up that he’s actually not as nearly as good as he tricked people into thinking he is.

    The biggest mistake the Clippers made in the last two seasons is signing him. The second biggest mistake is not getting rid of him.

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    MannyA Reply:

    Shouldn’t you be out clubbing baby seals or whatever it is you do?

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 4:49 pm

  12. avatar ghost_ride Said,

    John – remember Rasual Butler was a part of the most effective starting 5′s the Clippers have run out the last few years. Sending him to the bench as strictly a rotation player is a step up, assuming Gomes lives up to expectations.

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    Posted on September 22nd, 2010 at 5:18 pm

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