The Education of Eric Gordon

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By Brian Chan
Special to ClipperBlog

Between the inexperienced rookies and the stubborn veterans on the Clippers roster, Eric Gordon stands out as a special talent. Selected 7th overall in the 2008 NBA Draft, Gordon has the ability to give the Clippers what they have so desperately needed — Eric Gordon can be “the guy.” After gaining valuable experience as a key player on Team USA this Summer in the World Championships, Gordon is primed to have a breakout year. The early season injuries have forced Gordon to see some time at the point guard position, but what exactly does he need to do to become an “elite” player?

One way we can judge player value is through John Hollinger’s PER rating. League average PER is 15 and Eric Gordon’s PER for the 2009-10 season was 14.1. The PER for some of the top guards for the 2009-2010 season, as well as Hollinger’s general guide for PER, can be found below.

According to the numbers, in order to become an elite player, Gordon would need to raise his PER to around the low to mid 20s range. John Hollinger explains Gordon’s low PER by the fact that, outside of scoring, Gordon has an “exceptionally limited impact on the rest of the box score.” By looking at the various inputs for PER and statistics from the 2009-10 season, we can see what Gordon has to do to become one of the top guards.

Offense
Gordon is first and foremost a scorer; however, limited touches prevented him from averaging higher than 16.9 points per 36 minutes. It is difficult to predict how his offensive game will evolve; but, the below charts illustrate the effect on his PER if he: takes more field goals, increases his shooting percentage, increases his 3-point percentage, and increases his free throw percentage.

Increasing his shooting percentages appears to have the greatest effect on PER. It is feasible that the presence of Griffin will allow Gordon to get better looks and, accordingly, increase his accuracy. For the team’s sake, it is important that Gordon increases his usage rate as well. One of the other facets of usage rate is assists.

Early this season, Gordon has shown his ability to create for others. Although his career assist figures are pedestrian, things may change as his role becomes more defined. The following chart shows assists to PER.

Another area of Gordon’s game that leaves something to be desired is turnovers. Gordon’s career turnover ratio is 11.2 — that’s the percentage of Gordon’s possessions that end in a turnover.

Defense
Although defense is one of the most difficult things in basketball to quantify, the consensus is that Gordon is a pretty good perimeter defender. Despite his relative lack of size for the shooting guard position, Gordon’s strength and quickness allow him to disrupt perimeter players. The below chart illustrates how his PER will change based on steals production.

One of the knocks on Eric Gordon is his incapacity to rebound. The 2009-10 PER leaders at the shooting guard position averaged 4.64 rebounds per 36 minutes, but Gordon averaged only 2.6. According to Hollinger, his rebounding rate was the 3rd lowest at the shooting guard position and the 10th worst in all of basketball. The rebound-to-PER schedule is below.

Gordon’s lack of size makes it difficult for him to contest shots, but just for fun … blocks.

This Season
Eric Gordon has emerged as the team’s de facto leader. It can be seen in his mannerisms and his fire, and it has led to an increase in his aggressiveness and assertiveness on the both ends of the floor. His usage rate has increased from 21.5 percent to 29.6 percent, while also shooting a higher percentage. Despite shooting only .203 from 3-point range, his field goal percentage has increased from .449 to .453, in part due to his dedication to driving to the rim.

According to HoopData, Eric Gordon has increased his attempts at the rim from 5.0 to 5.8 attempts per 40 minutes, while hitting 70.4 percent of them, and he has increased his attempts from less than 10 feet from 0.8 to 2.8. Even more impressively, his free throw attempts per 36 minutes has increased from 4.8 to 8.8. Gordon’s penetration and increased ballhandling has allowed him to create for his teammates as well, as seen in his 4.7 assists per 36 minutes (3.0 last season).

On top of his offensive production, Gordon has also increased his rebounds by more than one per 36 minutes; however, there is still room for improvement. All of Gordon’s gains have combined for a strong PER of 20.45, and will likely increase as his 3-point touch returns and his rebounding effort continues. The development of Eric Gordon has been one of the bright spots for the Clipper season and is one of the reasons for hope for the Clipper franchise. When the Clippers veterans return from injury, they will be greeted with a different team.

They will be greeted with Eric Gordon’s team.