With Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay both off the table, it’s an increasingly likely scenario that the Clippers fill out their remaining roster spots with affordable guys who won’t jeopardize the development of the young core or squander the club’s future financial flexibility. While there are many free agents still up for grabs, here are four players who could fit snugly into the Clippers’ plans next season.

Kyle Korver
“It’s just a matter of reading the defense,” Korver said after his strong Game 1 and 2 performances in Utah’s first-round series against Denver. In Game 1, Korver took most of his shots from the top of the floor, but in Game 2, he darted off curls and baseline screens to set up shop in the corner. “They were chasing me in Game 1 on the down screens, but in Game 2 they were sort of cutting over the top, so I just flared toward the corner,” Korver said.

The 6-foot-7 sharpshooter is one of a few players in the league (though one of many on the Jazz) who will not only field a question about x’s and o’s, but build on the conversation. His 62 percent true shooting percentage can be attributed not only to his quick release and good size, but his court vision and intelligence. As we’ve seen with Ray Allen, long-range shooters with Korver’s proficiency aren’t frequently left open on the perimeter. They must work tirelessly for their looks and when those opportunities present themselves, there’s rarely more than a narrow window of daylight through which to get off a shot.

There’s a tendency to assume that spot-up specialists like Korver must be poor defenders. Some — like Steve Novak — are. But some — like Korver — aren’t. Watch him body up on the perimeter against opposing small forwards and you’ll see a strong, physical defender who yields very little and knows how to funnel his assignment to the right spots on the floor. As a help defender, Korver rarely makes a bad tactical decision. The data backs this up. In three straight seasons, the Jazz have not only been a better defensive team with Korver on the floor, but decisively better (3,94, 3.75, 2.49). He also posts solid rebounding numbers and an impressive assist rate for a guy whose primary responsibility is to shoot. While the Clips sculpt Al-Farouq Aminu into their small forward of the future, Korver’s range of attributes — from his ability to space the floor to his basketball IQ — would come in very handy.
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Anthony Morrow
There’s an old saying in basketball: If you can shoot, you can play. It wasn’t always clear if Morrow, an undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech, could hack it in the NBA, but after two years of scorching the nets in Golden State, it’s pretty obvious he belongs.

Just how good of a shooter is Morrow? He’s an elite one. Morrow ranked fifth in the league last season in overall three-point shooting percentage, but first out of those who attempted more than four threes a game at 45.6 percent. In spot-up situations, Morrow was second in the league in points produced per possession at 1.37. Morrow’s true shooting percentage of 59.7 was fifth best among all shooting guards and just a hair behind one of the greatest shooters of all-time in Ray Allen. Pure shooters usually face an adjustment period in the NBA, but at age 24 and just two seasons into his career, Morrow has already vaulted himself into the upper echelon of snipers.

You’d expect Morrow to be awful defensively, but he’s not an absolute sieve. The Warriors were actually worse defensively last season when Morrow was off the court, despite the fact Morrow often played out of position at small forward. At 6-foot-5 with not a heck of a whole lot going for him athletically, Morrow isn’t a very good rebounder either. Still, he was decisively better at pitching in on the glass than both Rasual Butler and Eric Gordon last season in less minutes.

Morrow was truly one of Don Nelson’s guys — a player who could get shots up quick and knock a lot of them down. It’s been rumored that Warriors GM Larry Riley wants more defensive-minded guys on the floor and would be hesitant to match a substantial offer for Morrow. Teams can offer Morrow up to the mid-level exception, and as an restricted free agent the Warriors would have seven days to match that offer.

It’s not difficult to manufacture points when Morrow is on the floor. Run him off screens, plant him on the ball-side for post entries … the possibilities are endless. If you’re working under the assumption that Blake Griffin is a double-team drawing force on the block, there’s far worse basketball strategies than pairing him with one of the game’s purest outside shooters.

Although he’s one-dimensional, Morrow would give the next coach of the Clippers a legitimate offensive weapon to utilize.
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Ronnie Brewer
Throughout the playoffs, when Jazz point guard Deron Williams was asked to comment on a heady play by one of his young wings, Wesley Matthews or C.J. Miles, Williams would reference former teammate Ronnie Brewer. For example, when Miles made a brilliant off-ball dive to the hoop during a crucial possession of Game 2, Williams commented, “It was a Ronnie Brewer read … He used to run that baseline.”

Williams was irate when the Jazz dealt the 6-foot-7 Brewer mid-season in a salary dump and you can’t blame him. In an offense that relies on sharp instincts and good decision-making, Brewer was a master. We often discuss how awareness of one’s limitations is such a valuable commodity for an NBA player. Brewer is a prime example. Though he can’t shoot very well from distance, Brewer is one of the strongest finishers in the league at the basket, which is how he’s been able to compile a career Player Efficiency Rating of 15.8 despite that iffy stroke.

As Williams says, Brewer has a knack for being in the right place at the right time on the court. He has an intuitive ability to make smart reads aside and work off the ball. Brewer isn’t a defensive stopper, but he can guard three positions with his length, quicks and intelligence and has improved each season as he’s matured.

In their successful attempt to make Rudy Gay one of the most generously compensated athletes in the world, the Memphis Grizzlies had to let Brewer walk as an unrestricted free agent. Memphis’ loss is the league’s gain. For a team trying to get more creative offensively, the Clippers could use a guy like Brewer with whom Baron Davis would have a field day (as Williams did) finding the speedy guard on basket dives. Although he’d be an unlikely starter in Los Angeles, he could be a valuable first-wing-off-the-bench for the Clippers.
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Lou Amundson
Hockey and basketball don’t coincide a whole lot, but something to embrace about hockey is the defined roles players have on the ice. Teams are led by their playmakers and snipers, but after those guys there’s a lot of grinders and enforcers out there — guys to do the dirty work. In fact, hockey teams have whole units dedicated solely to hitting people. Obviously you can’t do that in basketball, but every team needs a guy who can go in and muck up the game a bit.

There’s no doubting Lou Amundson is one of those guys. During the playoffs Amundson stayed in the jersey of opposing star big-men, crashed the offensive boards with reckless abandon, and did his fair share of agitating along the way. To wit, Amundson is most noted for provoking Zach Randolph into punching him in the face. He’s pretty good at that sort of thing.

Amundson isn’t skilled by any means, but he’s a dogged offensive rebounder (fifth among centers in offensive rebounding rate) and a pretty good shotblocker at nearly 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes. Almost all of Amundson’s shot attempts (3.5 a game) come on putback attempts or cuts directly to the hole. If it’s not at the rim, Amundson is probably not shooting it.

Perhaps the best quality about Amundson is that he knows his role, and he’s hungry to fill it every single night. He’ll scrap to the final bell, and often times he’ll swing a game with his hustle plays if the opposing bigs don’t match his energy level. He’s not pretty, but he’s consistent, he’ll come cheap, he’ll work hard every day and push the other guys, and he’ll add a little nastiness to a big man rotation at the 4 or 5 spot.
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From his blog:

The Clippers are in turmoil and have announced they “want to win now.” Is this possible? Since trading away Marcus Camby the Clippers have played around 8 points worse than an average NBA team. Surprisingly, most of the poor play has occurred when Steve Blake is in. Blake had played great for Portland this year, but if you look at all minutes since the Camby trade the Clippers performance breaks down as follows:

• Blake or Novak in (mostly Blake) the Clippers in 342 minutes have played 14 points worse than average.
• Rest of time the Clippers have played 2 points better than average,

It may be that Blake is having trouble learning the offense, I do not know, but he has clearly been hurting the Clippers. Some other amazing stats:

• In the 94 minutes Outlaw and Baron are in together, the Clippers play 11 points better than average.
• Butler, Baron Davis, Gordon, Kaman and Gooden have been solid, playing 4 points better than average in 128 minutes.
• Butler, Davis, Gordon, Kaman and Smith have been great: In 53 min this lineup plays 18 points better than average.
• In 55 min with Outlaw and Gooden in and Kaman out the Clippers play 11 points better than average.

Building around the things that work should enable the Clippers to win some games. Perhaps then LeBron can be convinced that a nucleus of Kaman, Gordon, Outlaw, and Baron and a coach of his choosing is where he wants to land in 2010.

Winston fails to mention Blake Griffin, who should only add to the Clippers’ future.

ADDENDUM
Haralabos Voulgaris e-mails:
There is really nothing meaningful Adjusted numbers can determine from such small samples, his biggest minute sample is 128 minutes and you really can’t do anything to predict future success on a sample that small, in fact even using a whole season’s worth of your most-used lineup. For instance, in 2009 Boston’s most-used lineup played 4267 possessions (their starters). If you tried using one year of lineup data to predict future outcomes you would have faired much worse than using two full seasons’ worth of lineup data. I’d have a hard time stating with any level of authority any findings better than or worse than average using one full season of data, without a very sophisticated modeling technique. I can’t imagine using the clearest of crystal balls could draw any conclusions using 100 minutes of data.

When is losing better than winning?

The obvious answer has something to do with extra lottery balls, but let’s ignore that aspect (for now). Sometimes winning can complicate things where losing won’t. A loss is just a loss, and a defeat to the Hawks is to be expected given the circumstances. But a win? A win tonight would have made an even bigger scapegoat out of Baron Davis, who sat out with a sore back. A win tonight would have slightly dinged whatever trade value Baron has left. A win tonight would have required us to put at least a little hope back into the season, in Steve Blake, and in Kim Hughes among others. Does any actual good come from that scenario? Was Red right the first time? Is hope really a dangerous thing after all?

For a bit the Clippers threatened to complicate things by winning. Despite the turnover discrepancy and Atlanta’s dominance in the paint (70-38), the Clippers were only down 6 points going into the fourth quarter, 81-75. Not unlike the last time these two teams met, Atlanta turned it on in the fourth quarter and stepped up their intensity when it mattered most. The Clippers’ shot selection to start the fourth quarter looked like this:

• 22-foot missed jumper by Bobby Brown [11:40], 25-foot missed three-point attempt by Rasual Butler [10:56], Chris Kaman made two point shot [10:08], 28-foot missed three-point attempt by Steve Novak [9:30], 15-foot jumper missed by Chris Kaman [9:07], Craig Smith traveling [8:38], Craig Smith turnover [8:18], Chris Kaman Technical Foul [7:39].

In a little less than 5 minutes of game time, the above stretch put the Clippers behind 18 points. The results shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Bobby Brown is primarily a jump shooter, Steve Novak is strictly a jump shooter, Rasual Butler sticks to the outside and Chris Kaman in the 4th quarter is always primed to shoot more jumpers than anything else. Eventually you have to consider that it’s not the coaching, the scheme, or the execution, but instead it’s the personnel. The Clippers have a lot of guys in love with their jumper on the roster and they don’t have anyone who can consistently penetrate and get to the rim. Until that changes (and it will eventually), these types of quarters are bound to keep happening.

All in all the Clippers don’t play poorly on the offensive end. They shoot 50.7% from the field and do a decent job getting clean looks for Rasual Butler in particular. Steve Blake dishes out 9 assists to 3 turnovers, which is pretty impressive considering he has yet to practice with the team. Maybe the most admirable contrast between Blake and Baron is that Blake gets the Clippers into their sets almost immediately with little to no senseless dribbling. Blake can’t hit anything tonight (1 for 6 from the field), but the moderation on his shot attempts is a breath of fresh air. There are things Blake will never be able to do as well as Baron, but at least Blake is mostly aware of his limitations. He’s not the first player to have a successful NBA career built off a keen sense of self-awareness.

It’s strange to say this but the Clippers miss Al Thornton quite a bit tonight. I’ve never been high on what Thornton brings to the table, but tonight against his hometown Atlanta, a team he always played well against, Thornton likely could have contributed. The irony of Thornton being traded just hours before tip-off isn’t lost on me. In December I wrote a piece about Al Thornton being transformed and concluded he had figured it out, and that he was now much more efficient, and that he was well on his way to cutting out the long range jumper from his arsenal completely. Practically right after I hit “submit” Al went back to throwing up contested 20-footers in an effort to boost his stats and earn more minutes. That’s just the way Al Thornton played — he’d look dominant one game, and fall of the face of the Earth the next. There’s a special spot all carved out for him in the illustrious pantheon of frustrating Clippers. Who knows which Al Thornton would have came to play tonight, but the Clippers desperately needed someone who could at least challenge the Hawks at the rim.

In a way watching tonight’s game is a liberating experience. Gone are the days of eyeballing the standings and stressing over wins and losses. Gone are the stretches of not being able to stomach DeAndre Jordan’s now easily forgivable follies. Gone are the hopes and expectations that came with the former collection of talent. After the transactions the last two days, the present and immediate future suddenly bare no consequence. It’s freedom. It’s probably not the brand of freedom the players thought they were getting when Dunleavy moved up to the front office, but it’s freedom nonetheless.

• Mike Dunleavy returned to practice Saturday after going to the hospital Friday morning for treatment on a herniated disk in his back. “I feel OK,” Dunleavy said, “but I’m not going to be doing any dancing any time soon.”

• Eric Pincus grades the first 30 games for the Clippers. Pincus points out the biggest change in the most improved Clipper so far this year, Chris Kaman: “The biggest difference in Kaman’s offensive attack this year is a smooth face up jumper.  It’s a shot Dunleavy has encouraged Chris to take for years – but it’s only over this past summer that Kaman developed enough confidence.”

• Al Thornton continues to statistically baffle. The good news is that among all small forwards who have logged over 25 minutes a game, Al Thornton ranks second in offensive rebounds per 40 minutes. The bad news? Thornton ranks dead last in defensive rebounding. Is this a cause for concern, or just a case of Marcus Camby gobbling up all the available boards?

• Sandy Banks of the Los Angeles Times writes an interesting profile on Donald Sterling.

• In his latest entry on Jordan’s Journal (login required) DeAndre updates us on what it’s like to guard Kevin Garnett, his New Years resolutions, and why Steve Novak is getting his bad Santa on. The question on my mind: How much longer do we have to wait before we can see Blake and DeAndre star in a cheesy buddy cop movie? Someone get a script to Baron Davis, pronto.

• Jonathan Abrams of the New York Times checks in on Blake Griffin.

• Via Lisa Dillman’s twitter account: “Clipper update: Al Thornton not practicing because of a stomach virus. Questionable for game tomorrow vs. Portland.”

• All-decade lists dominated the internet the last few weeks, so I’ll spare you and pose just one question: Who was the Clipper of the decade? Was it Elton Brand? Chris Kaman? Sam Cassell, perhaps? Write-in votes will also be accepted. Let’s hear it.

Over much of the past month, the Clippers have been a decisive defensive team. They’ve slowed opponents with initial traps and quick recoveries. When ballhandlers find freedom or connect with their bigs, the Clippers’ weak side rotation has been prompt. Marcus Camby anchors that enterprise, but even Al Thornton has become a better decision-maker many nights. When the Clippers guards get beaten off the dribble, they quickly find their next assignment in the defensive rotation — whether it’s running spot shooters off the line, or dropping low to strip the ball from a unsuspecting post player. Most nights, it’s this brand of defense that’s kept the Clippers competitive.

Not so on Sunday against San Antonio.

The Spurs shred the Clippers early, scoring 39 points on 23 first-quarter possessions. This is vintage Spurs basketball, predicated on Tony Parker’s incursions into the paint and Tim Duncan’s presence in the post. We see it on the Spurs’ first score (1st, 10:58), when Parker skirts the baseline while Duncan dives low. The lethal Parker-Duncan combo draws the entire Clippers’ unit in, leaving Keith Bogans alone in the corner. The Spurs have accumulated a lot of jewelry running this stuff, and here Bogans drains the Corner 3 that might as well have “Made in Bexar County” inscribed on its base.

The patented Spurs Corner 3 off the drive-and-kick is a lethal novelty, but the Parker-Duncan screen-roll is an enduring monument. The Clippers choose to trap Parker, with Marcus Camby acutely aware to focus on nothing but the rolling Duncan. What makes Duncan the most fluent low post practitioner of our lifetime is how he eludes even the best help defenders with his agility and touch:

Duncan works pretty well with Ginobili, too (I think Duncan could probably work with any passable point guard). Here, when fronted by Kaman, Duncan with Ginobili’s assist, goes back door. Thornton, being mindful of Jefferson, doesn’t have time to react:

The Spurs, as the Rockets did about ten days ago, beat the Clippers from beyond the arc, draining five of eight in the first quarter. Ginobili gets free of Gordon by pretending to set a flex screen underneath, then darts out to the arc leaving Gordon to trudge through the morass of big bodies beneath the basket (1st, 3:57). Ginobili sinks another one when he gets free to the same spot because Ricky Davis, for whatever reason, decides it’s more important leaving Manu to chase Bonner away from the action, even though Novak is already on Bonner. (1st, 0:16)

Doubling Matt Bonner off the ball is not a winning strategy for an NBA defense:

Bonner converts the fifth 3PM on the Spurs’ final possession of the quarter when Thornton drifts aimlessly toward Parker on the other side of the floor even though there are three Clippers in closer proximity to him. Ginobili hits a couple of more from behind the line in the opening minutes of the second quarter. He’s always on the move. Steve Novak’s unintuitive defensive instincts betray him on the first, yielding Ginobili a clean look from up top (2nd, 10:13). Then Ginobili runs Butler around a stagger screen with Blair and Bonner at the elbows (2nd, 8:23).

The Clippers trail by 23 at this juncture. They cut it to seven early in the third quarter, but a few tough possessions — one the product of Camby’s tendency to stay close to the basket even against stretch big men (Bonner’s 3PM at 3rd, 2:12), one that’s no fault of their own (Ginobili’s tough, well-contested, right-leaning jumper against Gordon at 3rd, 1:30), and one on a crafty interior pass by Keith Bogans in traffic to DeJuan Blair at the buzzer (3rd, 0:00) — extends the Spurs’ lead to 13 and essentially breaks the Clips.

The Clippers don’t help themselves much with their shot selection in the first 20 minutes of the game. We get a glimpse of the worst habits of Baron Davis and Thornton, each taking a few low-percentage jumpers, usually off-balance, contested, too early in the shot clock or all of the above. After that, they play sound offensive basketball for about 18 minutes. Thornton becomes more selective, doing most of his work on the attack and attempting 17-footers only when uncontested. Davis is also assertive, both in the post against the Spurs’ point guards and off the dribble. But the Clippers become selfish during a 16-0 San Antonio run that buries them, illustrated by Baron’s fallaway in transition against Richard Jefferson (4th, 9:03).

What’s frustrating about the Clippers inconsistency is its inconsistency. Tonight is a somewhat uncharacteristic loss, not unlike the Houston loss. The Clips are done in by bad perimeter and help defense. Eric Gordon is atypically impatient, while the team as a whole performs well on the glass and protects the basketball through three quarters.

It would be far more instructive if the Clippers could produce some recurring basketball patterns to their losses and stick with them.

The Clippers are now without their most efficient offensive and defensive players, and the consequences of those absences are on full display tonight at the Pyramid. The Grizzlies finish the game with 106 points in their 93 possessions (114.0/100) and they do it by brutalizing the Clippers within 15 feet of the basket and by luring the Clippers into a series of bad defensive decisions.

Memphis scores on its first seven trips, during which the Clippers establish some horrible patterns that plague them all night. On the game’s first possession, the Clippers choose to send help low to Zach Randolph off O.J. Mayo. That’s a silly decision by Rasual Butler, particularly with Mike Conley cutting through to the weak side. Baron Davis offers some help, fully recognizing that Conley is harmless from the weak side corner, particularly if Randolph is the guy who has to make the play. Mayo? Not only is he…well…O.J. Mayo, but he’s also the only pass Randolph can reasonably make out of the post.  He does, and Mayo records the game’s first bucket.

Memphis runs the Clips in circles all night — even when the stuff isn’t all that well-executed. Take the game’s third possession, where the Grizz run a couple of stagger screens off which Mayo curls a la Ray Allen. Mayo gets a modicum of separation, but nothing extraordinary. But it doesn’t matter, because as Mayo approaches the elbow to collect the pass from the perimeter (Randolph), both the trailer (Butler) and Gasol’s man (Kaman) run at him. The second Kaman reacts, Gasol breaks for the hole. Mayo hits his big man with a bounce pass en route, and Gasol has an uncontested driving slam.

Gasol beats the Clippers in every conceivable way a big man can dominate a game down low, and we see the full portfolio before the first stoppage. In isolation against Kaman on the left block, Gasol uses a baseline pivot to get some room to launch a little left-handed hook. Twenty seconds later, the Clippers botch a basic pick-and-roll coverage on a Conley-Gasol S/R.  Conley draws Thornton courtesy of an early screen from Rudy Gay before anyone gets set that bumps Baron off the Grizz point guard. It’s an ugly mismatch for Memphis, but the Grizz give the Clips a reprieve and go with the initial call — the aforementioned Conley/Gasol S/R.¹ What do the Clips do? They look a gift horse in the mouth. Thornton and Kaman trap Conley on the action, thereby allowing Gasol to roll to the hoop unfettered. Credit the Grizzlies for spacing the floor beautifully with Mayo, Gay and Randolph, making any defensive rotation virtually impossible. Personally, I’d have Camby sag on Randolph, not only because Marcus is among the best weak side helpers in basketball (bad back notwithstanding), but because Randolph is the least dangerous of those three Grizzlies from that distance, especially from the left side of the floor, where Zach is set up.

While this mass hemorrhage is occurring, Baron Davis keeps the Clippers in the game on the other end of the floor. He finishes the first quarter with 15 points on 6-for-8 shooting from the field and sinks 3 of 5 attempts from the stripe.  He does it the smart way — bullying Mike Conley, then a rusty Jamaal Tinsley with his back to the basket. If you’re a strong guard like Baron, a matchup against these two is gold, but the fact that the Memphis bigs don’t provide much in the way of help compounds the advantage even more. Baron takes full advantage, and the result is his finest offensive quarter of the season.

Unfortunately, Baron gives it back in the third quarter when he falls into Alpha Dog mode. With the game teetering on the edge for the Clippers in the third quarter, Davis commits three bad plays. The first comes in transition, where Baron opts for the unsteady 26-foot PUJIT with that scissors kick that accompanies his shot when he’s not set. Over the next couple of minutes, Baron makes two uncharacteristically lazy passes — one a sloppy entry to Craig Smith, the other an errant dish along the perimeter to Steve Novak.

The Clippers’ second unit vaults them back into the game, but then another defensive lapse reverses that momentum. On a Conley-Gasol pick-and-roll, Conley is barely able to nudge his way inside the arc. Gasol rolls, but Rhino diligently stays with him. Meanwhile, Ricky Davis is assigned to Mayo in the right corner.  Given everything that we’ve just laid out – a Conley-Gasol pick-and-roll well in check, why in (enter deity here)’s name would Ricky Davis leave Mayo for an instant? For whatever reason, Davis decides to step toward the action, leaving an unmanned Mayo to perform a baseline sprint and flush a lob from Conley for a fierce alley-oop.

Ricky Davis is a respectable on-ball defender, but there aren’t fifteen guys in the league who offer more unwarranted help off their perimeter defensive assignments than Ricky.

Meanwhile, Rasual Butler is pressing and it’s starting to hurt the team. You can’t deny Butler the wide open looks. It’s safe to assume that those will eventually start falling again at a decent clip. But in recent days, Butler has been trying to raise his shooting percentage five points with every shot, launching all kinds of contested, off-balanced, ill-advised stuff off the dribble. The numbers say that he’s doing an above average job on the wing defensively, but his offensive presence is killing the Clippers right now. He simply can’t fill Eric Gordon’s role as the featured ball-side threat on the perimeter, and Rasual desperately needs to return to the weak side corner, where he’s been most successful over the course of his career. Of course, this can’t happen until Eric returns.

Some positives:

• It won’t make any Top 10 highlight reels, but Craig Smith’s 94-foot solo break at (2nd, 9:30) was like watching the big boy in Pop Warner ball rumble to the end zone against kids who are powerless in size and strength to stop him.
• DeAndre Jordan assumes Marcy Camby’s role on the glass, and collects five rebounds during the third quarter while the Clippers are trying to hang on. He collects seven total rebounds in 18 minutes — crucial in helping the Clippers win the rebounding rate battle against the league’s 2nd best glass squad. Jordan needs to go back to basics — worry about nothing but the glass, protecting the hoop, and being decisive defending the pick and roll.
• Ricky Buckets performs well during temps d’ordures.  Davis plays the entire fourth quarter and scores 10 points on 5-8 shooting from the floor. Given that Denver starts Aaron Afflalo at the 2, maybe Mike Dunleavy should give Ricky a more extended look as a starter.