Thursday, May 17, 2012

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Archive for the ‘Anatomy’ Category

The Last Shot

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On March - 16 - 2009

I did not have a chance to see the game, but was able to catch the final play this morning. A couple things caught my attention, though some of them are obscured by the broadcast production, which cut away from the halfcourt for a tight shot on Baron as the Clippers were getting set.

When Novak first checks in, he sets up on the weak side along the perimeter, guarded by Trenton Hassell, who’s a very tight defender. Between that moment and the instant they return to the wide shot of the floor, Novak moves to the near side corner, and is now covered by Robin Lopez.

My best guess — and that’s all it is — would be that Lawrence Frank makes the switch in anticipation that Chris Kaman would be the screen man for the shooter. By having Hassell on Kaman at the time of the inbounds, this enables the Nets’ best defender to switch that screen and pick up the guy who will most likely end up with the ball. As it turns out, Kaman is somewhat incidental to the play.

Eric Gordon comes to receive the inbound pass from Baron. Once Eric penetrates, the entire Nets defense collapses — including Vince Carter [Baron Davis' defender] and Robin Lopez [Steve Novak's defender in the left corner]. Eric’s backward pass won’t win any skills awards, but it’s effective, landing in Baron’s hands.

At this point, it’s child’s play. Baron has a clean look, but Lopez is closing on him and Novak is equally open. Credit Baron for giving up the shot to the more proficient long-distance shooter.

So far as Novak goes, America’s children need to be watching this man shoot the basketball.

UPDATE: Déjà vu?

The (Rare) Gordon Gripe

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On January - 28 - 2009

Given his combination of brute strength and quickness, there’s really no reason that Eric Gordon should record his first rebound at the [3rd, 1:44] mark, particularly with Camby on the shelf.  But that’s what happened Friday night against Oklahoma City.  In Monday night’s game vs. Portland, Gordon put up a goose egg in the rebounding column in 41 minutes.

In 13 games this January, Gordon has collected greater than three rebounds only twice, despite averaging 41.2 mpg.  Among shooting guards who average greater than 30 mpg, Gordon ranks ahead of only Jamal Crawford in rebounding rate.

Finding Novak Shots

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On January - 20 - 2009

When Mike Dunleavy was asked prior to Saturday night’s game whether he had plans to use Steve Novak more, he smiled at the room of reporters. “If you can help me figure out how to get him more shots, I’m on board.”  Dunleavy’s wry response speaks to the difficulty of his challenge.  Steve Novak is one of the most preternaturally gifted outside shooters on the planet, but like many of the “180 Shooters” we highlighted last week, Novak doesn’t have the athleticism to get himself open looks at the basket without some help.

If you place a shooter like Novak on the floor with a superstar or two, the riddle is much easier to solve because the shooter can play off the double-teams.  If Michael Jordan attacks the lane from the perimeter, the defense will collapse on him, which means a shooter [Steve Kerr] will likely be open along the arc.  Same thing if the superstar operates in the post.  One of the reasons the Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs are #1 and #3 in the league respectively in three-point shooting has a lot to do with Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan — the two most efficient post players in the league. But Novak isn’t playing with any superstars.  These days, when Novak checks in for the Clippers, he’s probably the second-best offensive option on the floor.  The are no double-teams out there for Novak to play off, and for that very reason, he’s likely to attract more attention from the defense than at any time in his pro career.

Despite the Clippers’ limited offensive arsenal, Novak was able to get off 11 shots in yesterday’s loss to Minnesota — good for 18 points on 79.5% TS.   How were the Clippers able to manufacture these shots for Novak?  How did the team distract the Minnesota defense?  Solid screens?  Luck?  Transition opportunities?  Let’s take a look:

  • [1st, 1:39]  On his first shot attempt of the day, Novak is the beneficiary of a poor defensive decision by Craig Smith.  The Clippers are four-out-one-in.  Collins has the ball on the right side, with Novak at the top of the arc.  For whatever reason – and I can’t think of any — Smith decides to slide over to help Bassy Telfair on Collins 18 feet from the rim.  Collins sees Novak open and quickly passes him the ball.   Silky smooth stroke.  [1-1 FGA, 2 points]
  • [1st, 1:04]  Ironically, Novak misses his easiest attempt of the afternoon.  Collins penetrates in transition, while Ricky Davis and Novak both spot up on the left side — Davis in the corner and Novak to his right.  When the Wolves collapse, Collins kicks the ball out to Davis, who darts it over to the wide open Novak.  [1-2 FGA, 0-1 3PA, 2 points]
  • [1st, 0:40]  This is a second-chance bucket for Novak.  The moment Mardy Collins rebounds Davis’ missed jumper, Novak scampers to the arc.  Collins finds him instantly, and Novak fires the long 2.  We generally think of second chance opportunities in terms of big men crashing the glass.  But a smart shooter like Novak can generate a high-percentage second look for the offense by running to his spot on the perimeter, where the rebounder can find him.  [2-3 FGA, 0-1 3PA, 4 points]
  • [2nd, 10:19]  Even in transition, a spot-up shooter will need a little help.  Here, Novak gets it from Ricky Davis.  As Novak runs to his spot on the break, Davis pins Mike Miller, which gives Novak the space he needs to launch the 3PA.  Randy Foye comes into the play late and swipes Novak, who sinks all 3 FTAs. [2-3 FGA, 0-1 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 7 points]
  • [2nd, 5:57] Horns set, with Novak and Skinner at the elbows.  Novak cuts parallel to the foul line with the help of a Skinner screen, and fades out to the perimeter on the right side.   He gets the space he needs to drain the 3PA.   Simple, yet effective.  [3-4 FGA, 1-2 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 10 points]
  • [2nd, 5:38]  Here, the Clippers run a high S/R with Fred Jones and Novak out on the arc.  Novak’s brush isn’t terribly effective, and Kevin Love — who is assigned to Novak — manages to shoot the gap.  The good news is that Brian Skinner is waiting for Love with a second screen.  Very well-designed set by the Clippers.  Unfortunately, Novak hurries the shot just a bit.  [3-5 FGA, 1-3 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 10 points]
  • [2nd, 4:41] Another ball screen up top — this time it’s Collins/Novak.  Love runs underneath, leaving Novak with just enough time and room to launch another long two-point FG.  Novak’s release is lightning quick. [4-6 FGA, 1-3 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 12 points]
  • [2nd, 2:41] The Clippers set a pair of high screens for Novak at the elbows to get him from the left wing to the right side of the arc — the first by Gordon, then a more effective one by Skinner.  Ryan Gomes fights through both screens very effectively and chases Novak to the far side.  Gomes closes so quickly that Novak offers up a ball-fake to buy himself a better look.  Gomes bites, Novak dribbles about five feet to his left and tries again.  Novak is never totally balanced and the shot misses.  [4-7 FGA, 1-3 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 12 points]
  • [3rd, 2:16]  Again, Skinner and Novak set up at the respective elbows and — again — Novak frees himself from Kevin Love around the Skinner screen.  Novak meets Jones at the top of the arc, gets the ball, turns and drains the 3PA.  Another screen-assist from Skinner.  [5-8 FGA, 2-4 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 15 points]
  • [4th, 8:44]  Here’s another one of those second-chance 3PAs.  When DeAndre Jordan collects the Jones miss, Novak spots up along the arc, where Jordan finds him for the uncontested 3PA. [6-9, FGA, 3-5 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 18 points]
  • [4th, 7:48]  Yet another second-chance 3PA for Novak.  When Thornton’s miss bumps off the rim into a scrum of potential rebounders in the paint, Novak sprints to the left corner.  He calls for the ball, and Jones delivers it to him.  Novak fires the 3PA, but you can tell from his landing that it isn’t his purest shot of the day — his right leg kicks out from under him.  [6-10 FGA, 3-6 3PA, 3-3 FTA, 18 points]

Novak’s 18 points are a career high.

As we can see from the sets, it’s not easy to generate wide open looks for Novak.  It requires precision and execution — from the ballhandler, from the screeners [sometimes two], and from Novak.  Novak also needs a little luck.  He gets his first bucket of the game simply because Craig Smith falls asleep.  Novak gets a bunch of attempts because nobody on the Wolves accounts for his whereabouts on the offensive glass, which allows Novak to run to an open spot on the arc, where he gets a kickout from the offensive rebounder.

Novak’s task of getting open shots is made easier by playing the 4.  So why doesn’t Dunleavy just start Novak at power forward until Randolph returns?  I suspect that if Minnesota had started Kevin Love, Dunleavy would have.  Novak simply can’t defend skilled big men on the low block, which is the primary reason he hasn’t seen more minutes in the league, despite having one of the sweetest strokes in the game.  But when smallball opportunities arise, we should expect to see a lot more of Steve Novak.

The 180 Shooter

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On January - 13 - 2009

One of the few beneficiaries of the Clippers’ injury situation this season has been sharpshooting forward Steve Novak.  On Sunday afternoon, Novak went 3-3 from the field — all three FGMs were from beyond the arc.  He finished the game with a +13, far and away the best rating of any Clipper.   Novak is now 13 for 24 as a three-point shooter in January, good for a 54.2%.

There’s an old cliché that you can always spot a coach’s son for his sweet, flawless shooting stroke.  It’s certainly true in Novak’s case.  His father, Mike, is the longtime basketball coach at Brown Deer High School in Milwaukee.  Novak played under his Dad and, from an early age, would show up at practice and take 300 shots a day.

Chad Brooks is a smart basketball observer who sent along this email about Rick Majerus’ “180 Shooter” — a player whose field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and three-point percentage total 180:

I was always intrigued to hear him discuss his term “a 180 shooter” that is adding the percentages of free throw, field goal and three point percentage. If that sum reaches or exceeds 180 then you are the purest of shooters.

From reading your posts and following your links it is evident that you are very comfortable in the statistical minutiae of the NBA game. This led me to run my own very remedial data collection on “180″ shooters. I am as big of a fan of the college game (if not more so) as the NBA game. It amazed me that over the last 25 years how incredibly difficult it was for guys to achieve that 180 mark for their careers. There is no method to my madness on how I selected these shooters to look up. There could be an outside chance that I may very well be over looking some great shooters. After watching thousands of hours of basketball I basically just racked my brain for guys I thought could fill it up and then looked at their percentages. Many things can be taken away from this:

  • Some guys only had one year to adhere to the 3-pt line, or no years at all (this could be argued both ways, inflation or deflation of percentages).
  • How some college programs had an offense that purely revolved around their best shooter and how once in the NBA, these shooters were quickly brought back down to earth by NBA defenders closing speed. Many great college shooters often talk about the biggest adjustment from the college game to the pro game is the idea of an “open look.”
  • It should be pointed out that for the vast majority, their cumulative total decreased once they hit the NBA. This is as to be expected for a series of reasons (length of season, no conference play – everybody plays everybody in the NBA, better supporting casts . . .) However maybe something needs to be said for A) Steve Nash’s work ethic and B) Mike D’Antoni’s system he had in place in Phoenix. Nash’s improvement of 12.9 is a definite outlier.
  • The variable with the most impact was the advent of the three point line, making the “180 man” a possibility. It would be a arduous task but interesting to extrapolate jumpers that would have counted for three by the likes of Rick Barry, Jerry West and Pete Maravich to name a few.
  • Lastly if you want to stack the odds in your son’s favor to tickle the twine your first step is to name him Steve. I guess Del Curry knew this long before Majerus coined his “180 man” term.

Brooks’ email was accompanied by this spreadsheet.  The first set of names and numbers reflects the collegiate leaders in the “180 Shooter index”; the second set is the pro rankings; the third number is the drop-off/increase from college to the NBA [and for most, it's a drop-off].

Read the rest of this entry »

20-71 FGA

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On December - 22 - 2008

That’s what Baron Davis shot during the Clippers’ four-game road trip.  Baron hit only four of 24 attempts from beyond the arc, and when you take away the technical free throws, Baron turned only eight additional possessions into trips to the line.

28.6% from the field, a true-shooting percentage of 39.9% — however you slice the numbers, they amount to very bad news for the Los Angeles Clippers.

It’s fair to assume that, with the possible exception of Mike Dunleavy, nobody wants Baron Davis to emerge from his slump more than Baron Davis.  So rather than dwell on the unconscionable leaners, off-balanced prayers, and generally ill-advised bombs that comprised his 51 missed FGAs over the past week, let’s be more constructive.  In trying to claw his way out of this funk, what can Baron Davis draw upon?  When the shots have fallen, how have they materialized?

Let’s take a look, game-by-game, at where Baron is successful from the floor:

Oklahoma City [7-21]: Despite the fact that he needed 21 shots, this was arguably Baron’s most productive game of the trip.  He hits a couple of dribble-jumpers, though both inside of 18 feet with sufficient separation from his defender. The other five makes are as follows:

  • Two layups on Clipper fast breaks.
  • Two pretty spot-up jumpers with his feet set, one a 3PM.  How does he get the open space along the perimeter? With some smart, off-the-ball movement.
  • One step-back 3PM, the only attempt of the seven that could be fairly categorized as an unequivocally “bad shot.”

Chicago [6-23]:  Baron has an awful shooting night from the floor, missing 17 attempts.   The majority of the other six attempts are heady, smart shots:

  • Davis’ first make comes after a S/R, when the Chicago defense fails to recover.  Baron is left alone on the wing.  There’s nothing but open space underneath — so Baron makes a hard cut and Marcus Camby hits him there for an easy layup.
  • Two dribble-drive layups — the first courtesy of a high Paul Davis screen, the second when Derrick Rose defends him to drive right and Baron goes left.
  • A layup in transition.
  • Two 3PMs.  The first three comes after he spots up on the wing, with his feet perfectly set, off a Mike Taylor kick-out.  The second is a step-back job after Nocioni practically dares him to shoot it.

Indiana [5-18]: Of the five shots Baron hits from the field, only one of them is a PUJ.  The other four?

  • A nice set in which Baron comes off a little curl on a screen from Zach Randolph.
  • A transition layup.
  • A layup on a hard cut after the Indiana defense gets distracted by a deflected ball.
  • A strong baseline dribble-drive all the way to the hole when he gets a step on Jarrett Jack.

Milwaukee [2-9]:  The less said about this performance, the better.  Baron works himself two good baskets:

  • A high S/R with Camby at the top of the circle.  Baron steps inside the screen and hits an uncontested jumper from the foul line.
  • Baron easily beats Luke Ridnour on a left-handed baseline dribble-drive.  He pulls up at 17 and drains the jumper.

Over the course of the week, how many 3PMs does Baron Davis convert off the dribble?  Exactly two.  To the extent Baron is a threat from the perimeter, it’s as a spot-up shooter with his feet set, coming off a curl or finding some open space in a drive-and-kick set when the ball isn’t in his hands. When Baron has control of the ball, he’s clearly better served by taking his man off the dribble all the way to the rack.

The Baron Davis 3-Step Program to Recovery: Transition, set shots, and dribble-drives to the hole.

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