Comments working again & no issues can be found. Oh Happy Day. 

 -Mike (webmaster) 

The Bulls are the leap-frog team.

There's something really unsatisfying about Chicago -- a team that underachieved at such a spectacular level -- being rewarded with Michael Beasley. 

Is Jerryd Bayless still on the board at #7?  Unlikely.

Early guess:  Either Gordon or Westbrook are available -- but not both.  Clips go with the remainder. 

"His eligibility has expired."

--Mike Tirico on ESPN radio, as to why Elgin Baylor will cede to Mike Dunleavy at the draft lottery this evening in Secaucus, NJ. 

Though I think it’s often an abject exercise, I’ve been trying to find a current NBA template for Westbrook. Last night, I might’ve found one in Rajon Rondo. Like Rondo, Westbrook has great length [though Westbrook starts with two extra inches] and athleticism. He’s also lightning quick off the dribble, and plays  persistent on-ball defense.

With regard to his ability to play the point, one of my favorite things about Westbrook’s game log is that, after the first of March, Westbrook collected three turnovers or greater in only one game – in the regional semis to Western Kentucky. His entire game was uncharacteristically frenetic that night, though he grabbed 11 boards – six of them on the offensive glass. Westbrook led the 07-08 UCLA team in assists. But what impressed me over the course of UCLA’s season was the quality of Westbrook’s assists. It might very well be a function of playing together over the course of a season, but Westbrook demonstrated an ability to get his big men the ball. In their blowout of Cal at Pauley toward the end of the season, Westbrook managed to find Luc Richard Mbah a Moute three times on the block for easy shots – once in a beautiful transition series, where Westbrook does some of his best work. While it may be pollyannaish to suppose a guard can translate good sense and patience into an NBA-caliber brand of point guardhood, Westbrook displays the instincts to read the court and move the ball where it can best help his offense.

Defensively, I’m not sure there’s a better collegiate guard in the nation. Can he pressure the ball? About as well as anyone. But he also defends the pick-and-roll with a pro-style proficiency and confidence. He can squirrel around screens, give a big man pause off the switch, and trap with the best of them. Moreover, he knows exactly when to employ each tactic.




For the Clippers sake, I’d rank Westbrook ahead of Gordon. Where he stands in relation to Bayless or Mayo is a tougher call. But if Russell Westbrook logs 1,700 minutes in the Mike Dunleavy’s backcourt next season, you’d hear no complaints from Clipperblog.

There probably isn’t a Division-I starter for whom you couldn’t cut something like this.  But this reel illustrates how mechanically sound Eric Gordon’s shot is.  Watch the quick release, but pronounced, sweet follow-through.  Another nice feature of his game – the hard dribble he uses in traffic en route to the hoop.  Again, I haven’t seen him play enough, but among the bevy of accolades you heard about Gordon a year ago was his ability to finish.  It’s especially impressive when you draw as much contact as Gordon seems to on his drives.  I wish there was tape of what kind of stuff he does off the ball -- it's probably a better predictor of how valuable he'd be in an NBA backcourt.


   

But for some reason, it gave me an unsettling measure of comfort.

 

 

And I can't stop watching it.

The early termination deadline for Elton Brand and Corey Maggette is June 30, 2008.  Let’s assume – though Clipperblog puts nothing past the front office – that both Elton and Corey make their decisions known to the brass prior to the NBA draft the previous Wednesday.  And, hypothetically, let’s assume also that Elton plays out his deal, while Corey Maggette exercises his option to leave.

This leaves the Clippers with the following:

PG       Brevin Knight
PG       Shaun Livingston [qualifying offer]*
SG       Cuttino Mobley
SF        Al Thornton
SF/PF  Tim Thomas
PF        Elton Brand
PF        Josh Powell
C         Chris Kaman

 
Quinton Ross is a free agent and, given Mike Dunleavy’s affinity for his defensive game, it seems reasonable that he’d re-sign with the Clippers, though it’s likely that Q will have his tires kicked by a few other teams.  The qualifying offer on Shaun is a hefty $5.8M.  One tack the Clippers could take would be to pass on the 5^th year and try to ink Shaun to a cheaper deal.   Any way you slice it – provided Elton returns – the Clippers will be looking to fill a gaping hole in the backcourt. 

The NBA being the NBA, the Clips’ draft position is absurdly elastic.  The Clippers have a 7.5% chance of scoring the first pick…and a 4% chance of falling as far as 8^th or 9^th:

Position	Odds
1st	7.5%
2nd	8.3%
3rd	9.5%
6th	41.4%
7th	29.4%
8th	3.9%
9th	0.1%

It’s patently obvious that Derrick Rose is the Mother Lode.  Unfortunately, Rose has risen from the consensus #2 to a possible #1, stretching the likelihood that the Clippers could nab to…well…let’s say about 10%.

Given the breadth of outcome, let’s break down the scenarios:

Clippers choose 1^st:  Rose -- for all the reasons stipulated by virtually everyone who writes about, follows, digests, plays, or narrates basketball.  Preternatural court vision, an ability to run both deliberate halfcourt sets and feverish transition play, an excellent mid-range game and – just as important – an ability to find the spot where he can get an open 15-footer.  With the possible exception of Russell Westbrook, he pressures opposing PGs better than any collegian – and has the size to match up against most shooting guards.   Simply put, Derrick Rose knows exactly where he’s supposed to be on a basketball court to maximize his team’s fortunes. 

Clippers choose 2^nd: If Memphis snags the first pick, it’s likely they’ll go with Beasley because they have no fewer than 14 point guards under contract.  Miami is a question mark.  But it’s safe to assume that Minnesota and Seattle would both go with Rose as their #1 picks.  The question is: Do the Clippers take Michael Beasley with the second pick if Rose is off the board?  The answer is probably yes.  Even if Elton exercises his option, there’s absolutely no guarantee that he returns in 2009 when he’s an unrestricted free agent.  Beasley is unique: A 6’ 10” power forward who can power in the post, shoot the 3, rebound with reckless abandon, and slash.  Imagine the Clips with two ambidextrous big men. 

Clippers choose 3^rd:  Now we’re into the Land of the Combo Guards:  Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo, and Eric Gordon.  In the minds of people who follow this stuff the closest, Gordon’s stock has fallen measurably behind the other two.  Narrowed down to Bayless and Mayo, Bayless is the more capable point.  But Mayo plays much bigger, even though he has only about an inch on Bayless.  Mayo critics claim he dozes on defense, but he blanketed Bayless when the two matched up during the PAC-10 season.  Bayless isn’t a defensive slouch either, as Kevin O’Neill pushed him hard on that end.   It’s a coin flip, but I’d go with Bayless because with Thornton situated at the 3, an Al-OJ duo on the wing would produce a lot of inefficiency on many a night.

Clippers choose 6^th:  This is the Clippers’ most likely position and they’ll probably miss out on both Bayless and Mayo, leaving them with Eric Gordon.  At the outset of the college season, Gordon was grouped with Mayo and Rose as the top guards in the nation.  But after he injured his wrist in a late-January practice, he lost a bit of his luster.  Clipperblog hasn’t seen too much of Gordon, but a quick look reveals a solid NBA body, and a fluid shot with a quick release and beautiful follow-through.  That much is certain, even with limited viewing. 

Clippers choose 7^th:  A lot of fans like D.J. Augustin and feel that [the lack of] backcourt size is underrated.  But the best lesson in the hazards of a 5’ 11” point guard – even one with Augustin’s quickness – came in the Texas v. Memphis game in the South Region final.  Rose destroyed Augustin every which way an opposing point guard can.  The better choice here would be Russell Westbrook – arguably the best defensive guard on the board.  Like Bayless, Mayo, and Gordon, Westbrook is a combo.  But watching him perform throughout the season and into the tourney, his vision and judgment suggest a player who can grow into a PG role – though he’s better in transition than in the halfcourt.  It’s a testimony to Ben Howland that among Westbrook’s strongest assets is his smart off-the-ball work.  There’s just an undeniable NBA-style tinge to Westbrook’s game – and, oh, some freaky athleticism to go with it. 

Clippers choose 8^th or 9^th: Shudder at the thought.  And it would take two leap-frogs by teams behind the Clips for it to happen, so let’s hope that probability wins out.  But if it comes to this, the pickings become very, very slim.  There’s Augustin who – again – I think is an NBA backup PG with glaring liabilities.  The Clippers could go with a shooting guard here like Chase Budinger, but the big guard’s iffy defensive game doesn’t conform to Mike Dunleavy’s style.  Do you take a chance with Chris Douglas-Roberts at the 2?  He ranks well below the Top 10 in most mock drafts.  But at Memphis, CDR put up the kind of collegiate stats that ESPN guru John Hollinger believes are solid predictors of NBA success.  He’s certainly more of a transition maven than a creator, but he’s also a top-notch defender with some serious length. 

Will Elgin take the podium in Seacaucus?  I’d send a Fazekas-Thornton unity ticket.