• Marcus Thompson II in the Contra Costa Times reports, "It appears the Warriors aren't going to be able to snatch power forward Elton Brand from the Los Angeles Clippers. The buzz among NBA insiders is that Brand — by all accounts a class act — will honor his word and remain with the Clippers." [Hat Tip: Petey Pablo]
  
  "Buzz" and "by all accounts" doesn't exactly translate into "dry ink," or even "verbally committed," but it might be about as concrete as it gets for a holiday weekend.
  
  Thompson -- this time in the Merc -- reports that the Warriors will now turn their attention to Corey Maggette.
  
  
• Chris Kaman: Carrying forward the Uwe Blab legacy for the Deutschlanders.
   
• Your 2008 Clippers Summer Team.  Keep an eye out for Pasadena Polytechnic High grad, former Penn Quaker standout, and Academic All-Ivy forward Koko Archibong.  The Nigerian baller got a shot with the Lakers a few years back, and was last spotted bumping around the BBL in Germany.  Archibong probably won't make the Clippers' 08-09 roster, but he's a Clipperblog favorite.
  
  
• From John Hollinger at ESPN.com: "On paper, few pairings seem more flammable than Mike Dunleavy and Baron Davis. Dunleavy is a control guy at the offensive end who likes to call set post-up plays over and over, while Davis has bristled under every coach who didn't give him free rein to launch contested 3s off the dribble with 21 on the shot clock. Don't get me wrong, Davis is a fantastic player. But I wonder how it's going to work when Dunleavy calls 4-down six plays in a row and whether Davis' disdain for structure ultimately will cause him to underachieve the same way he did for Tim Floyd, Byron Scott and Mike Montgomery."
  
  I don't think it's an unfair point.  The portfolio of post players Davis has teamed with includes the likes of P.J. Brown, Jamaal Magloire, and Andris Biedrins.  So running point for a post team that's inclined to start things down low will probably require an adjustment on Davis' part. 
  
  

From Jonathan Abrams at the Los Angeles Times:

...the Golden State Warriors have offered free-agent Elton Brand a more lucrative, multiyear deal than the Clippers have proposed, according to NBA sources who requested anonymity because they are not allowed to speak about other free-agent dealings. On Tuesday, the Clippers reached a verbal agreement to sign Warriors free-agent Baron Davis and were nearing a new deal with Brand.

Now, the Warriors have more salary cap space than the Clippers and have offered Brand a maximum contract, according to the sources.

Brand could not be reached for comment this morning.

The subtext of the Clippers' poaching of Davis has been that he and Elton have [unofficially] coordinated their decisions.  That's the hope, at least. 

UPDATE: From Chad Ford's live chat on ESPN.com: "I think [Elton Brand] opted out specifically so that the Clippers would have room to sign Baron. He'll be back in LA for sure ..."

The Clippers surprised a lot of people when they matched big offer sheets on both Elton Brand and Corey Maggette in the summer of 2003 when the consensus was that the two budding stars would follow historical precedent and bolt the Clippers for better money and a chance to win elsewhere.  In the summer of 2005, free agent Cuttino Mobley signed a contract worth 5 years and $42M with the Clippers.  It was the kind of mid-range deal that goes off without much fanfare during the league's summer slumber.  Sure, Mobley was a 17 ppg guy and a reputable defender, but he was a rung below the elite shooting guards of that free agent class, which included Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, and Michael Redd.  For the Clippers, though, it was a huge acquisition. Mobley was the first free agent of any stature who willfully chose the Clippers as his destination.  And it's likely that Mobley was one of the first free agents of any stature whom the Clippers didn't lowball or outright ignore.  Whatever you thought of Mobley’s game or the length and size of his contract, signing him was another milestone.  It proved that the Clippers were a franchise that a solid NBA starter in the prime of his career might, you know, want to play for.  

But Baron Davis exists in an entirely different orbit.  He's a premier, image-conscious athlete who is militantly protective of his brand, which makes his choice of the Clippers all the more remarkable.   I don't think Davis-Mobley-Thornton-Brand-Kaman with a thin bench puts the Clippers on par with the very best teams of the West, but it makes them competitive almost every night, a playoff team [if they stay healthy], and infinitely more fun to watch.  Mechanically, Davis fits Dunleavy's preference for big guards.  It does something the Clippers have never been able to do for Elton Brand -- even with Sam Cassell -- which is legitimately spread the floor.  Davis at the point will also allow the Clips to nurse Gordon and Thornton on the wings.  

More than anything, the Davis signing would reverse the downward trajectory the franchise has been charting the past 18 months, and would guarantee that Elton Brand plays another five years for a franchise in need of some totems.

 

 

From Jonathan Abrams at the Los Angeles Times:

Baron Davis' agent, Todd Ramasar, told The Times that they have a verbal agreement to sign with the Clippers.

Davis is expected to sign a contract in the five-year, $50-million range.

"From a basketball standpoint it's always been about winning for Baron," Ramasar said. "This presented a good opportunity to do that to pair him with Chris Kaman and Elton Brand is expected back."

The Clippers can't announce any deals until July 9 when next year's salary cap is determined.

The $10M/per number corresponds almost identically to the amount the Clippers clear by parting ways with Corey Maggette.  Given the discount it represents under Davis' market value, it also suggests that we should be hearing word of Elton fairly soon.

¡Viva la Naçion!

UPDATE: ESPN reports: "Sources told ESPN.com that Davis, 29, will receive a five-year deal worth an estimated $65 million."

UPDATE: The 2008-2009 NBA cap number projects to be about $58.1M.  If you pencil in Davis for $13.5M, that brings the Clippers to about $42M.  Also keep in mind that the Clippers have exactly five guys under contract, plus Gordon and Jordan.

Clipper fan, Michael Whang, offers this acoustic appeal to Baron Davis...

;

There are two central questions to the Brand and Davis opt-outs:

First, how real are the rumors that both Brand and Davis will sign with the Clippers?

Second – if that happens, how good are the Clippers with the following eight players under contract?

PG       Davis/Knight
SG       Mobley/Gordon
SF        Thornton/Thomas
PF        Brand
C         Kaman

Kelly Dwyer looks at both the speculation and a potential Clipper team with Brand and Davis.  Nobody does better truth-squadding than KD, and his post is essential reading.   

The Clippers do have cap space…Corey took the plunge, which leaves Los Angeles with about 29.6 million dollars in salary in place for next year, with the NBA's salary cap expected to be a shade over 58 million dollars in 2008-09.

Does all of that get earmarked for Brand and Davis? I'm not going to give you one of those "they're the Clippers" speeches, because even if you don't agree with the team's personnel moves, you can't call this outfit cheap anymore, not since it matched contract offers for Brand and Maggette back in 2003 and the flurry of signings/extensions in the years following. That said, filling out the rest of the cap with these two leaves Los Angeles with eight players under contract, and nothing more than a pretty solid team.

Even if Brand and Davis evenly split that nearly 30 million starting next year, both players will be playing for less money than they were due to make originally. Creating a sign and trade with Golden State doesn't make sense because there is nobody on that roster that the Warriors would want to give Baron Davis-sized money to, and that would leave Brand with the short end of the stick starting salary-wise.

Someone, if not both Davis and Brand, will be getting the stick in this situation. And for what? The Clippers would have those two; center Chris Kaman, emerging forward Al Thornton, rookie Eric Gordon, with veteran shooters Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley hanging around. That's a good team, even if Davis misses some time, but not an overwhelming team. The Clippers will have more cap space coming down the pike years later when Mobley and Thomas' contracts expire, but not a ton.

There are few in the Naçion who wouldn’t endorse a Davis signing, but it’s worth examining whether adding Davis truly elevates the Clippers to an upper-echelon team. 

The Clippers won 47 games in 2005-2006 with the Brand-Cassell screen/roll as its offensive lynchpin.  Even though Cassell had a resurgent effort that season, there’s little doubt that a healthy Baron Davis would represent a profound upgrade, particularly at the defensive end where Davis is strong and smart.  With Maggette’s departure, Al Thornton would have to fill the vacuum on the wing.  Though most Clippers fans have been itchy to consign the shooting guard slot to someone other than Cuttino Mobley, the Clips would  need Cat’s presence on the perimeter to contain opposing scorers.  Eric Gordon is scouted as a solid defensive player, but would you entrust him in his rookie season to guard Kobe Bryant in quarters one and four?  Davis would slide over on occasion to cover shooting guards, but by and large that role will be left to Cat – particularly against small forwards because Al Thornton has proved to be nothing more than a mediocre defender. 

That leaves as the unquantifiable variables in the equation – as usual – the development of Christopher Zane Kaman, as well as the health of the big scorers.  Davis played in every Warriors’ game last season, but in the prior three seasons he missed 83 games.  Elton’s Achilles tendon seems to be healing nicely, but whether EB can reach the heights of his 2006 game remain to be seen.

It’s obvious that the organization will extend healthy offers to both Brand and Davis.  What’s unclear is what happens if either or both balk.  As Dwyer points out, one of these two guys will be “getting the stick in this situation.” Will the prospect of kinda-sorta contending for a Top 4 seed might pale next to getting the max elsewhere?  Is so, where do the Clippers go from there?

Could a Clippers team with both Elton Brand and Baron Davis chase the Lakers into the ides of March?  Could sinking half of the team’s payroll into dual contracts for a couple of guys who will turn 30 this spring be ruinous going forward?   All good questions, but ones whose worst-case scenarios shouldn’t preclude the Clippers from rolling the dice.  Having tasted 47 wins, the Naçion will happily settle for pretty solid.     

You have to give Elton Brand credit.  He and his team have demonstrated some Presidential-quality message discipline.  Without ever conveying arrogance or entitlement, Elton has been able to express to the press, the Clippers organization, and the Naçion that he very much wants to stay, all the while very specifically dictating the terms of his doing so. 

So what happens from here?

• Elton could take a max contract from another team and never looks back.  If you think Elton is insincere and merely using the Clips to leverage the max from a team he believes can contend, then this is the most plausible outcome. 
  
  
• Elton signs a max contract with the Clippers, irrespective of what else they do.  This might be more likely than we realize.  Memphis certainly has a spot at the 4 for him with two incredibly promising talents at the wings in Rudy Gay and O. J. Mayo.  But Memphis is a far cry from Elton's Boston fantasy.  And it's Memphis, about as far away from the agencies and studios as you can get.  Philadelphia has started to assemble something nice, but offers no guarantee of anything. Miami just drafted one of the most talented power forwards in recent memory.  After a tour of the league, Elton could reason that his best situation remains in Los Angeles.
  
  
• Elton signs with the Clippers, but only if they pony up the cash for a legitimate #2 option.  There are some decent options out there (Chris Duhon), but no one who's a difference maker at the point other than Gilbert Arenas, and that seems improbable.  But one option might be a sign-and-trade utilizing Corey Maggette.  It's highly unlikely that Corey is going to get the money he wants from either Memphis or Philadelphia.  But there's probably a team out there that would prefer Corey's size to what they have.  Chad Ford floated the idea of PHX.  The Suns could use a durable 3, and could trade Leandro Barbosa's contract to obtain Corey.  Clipperblog isn't a Barbosa guy -- is Barbosa really the right person to feed Elton on the block 20 times a night -- but Elton Brand may feel otherwise. 
  
  
• Negotiations between the Clips and Elton become unproductive and both sides realize that a sign-and-trade might be best thing for all parties.  This would enable the Clips to go into uber-rebuilding mode.  They'd take back a hellacious expiring contract (Wally Szczerbiak or the like), assure themselves another Top 5 pick, and, in the process, clear vast expanses of cap space  to sign a max player Summer 2009, with money to burn. 

Outcomes #3 and #4 would each require a great deal of risk from the Clippers, which makes outcomes #1 and #2 far more likely. 

Per the Los Angeles Times.

There's no statement from either Brand's camp or the Clipper front office.  Unlike Maggette, who doesn't have any natural suitors, Brand would seem likely to have a couple of serious bidders for his services on the block.  Philadelphia is mentioned as a possible destination, and the Sixers are one of a couple of teams with serious money to spend.

The opt outs clear $24.8M from the Clippers overall number next season, leaving them well under the cap.  The Clippers instantly become The Team With The Most Money to Spend.  They could shower it on Elton or someone else. 

UPDATE: J.A. Adande has a semi-encouraging quote from Elton in his story on the opt out:

"We're opting out," Brand said. "It definitely doesn't mean I'm leaving the Clippers. We're trying to work it out. My intention is to stay."

...Brand's agent, David Falk, said the forward wants to see the Clippers sign a quality free agent and try to assemble a winning team in Los Angeles.

"It preserves options to make the team better," Falk said. "Clearly, if Elton decided he wanted to simply max out the dollars, he would have stayed in the deal, had a monster year and a lot more teams will have cap room next year."

Interesting.  Falk is basically telling the Clippers that if they want to hang on to Elton, they're going to have go out and spend some money.  It's a kindler, gentler Kobe Bryant game of chicken.

What inspired Brand's decision?  The vibe in Boston:

Falk said a visit to Boston for Game 2 of the NBA Finals influenced Brand's decision to opt out.

"He watched what happened when a few stars get together and agree to have a communal effort," Falk said. "He said 'That's what I'd like to accomplish in my career.'"

What would satisfy Brand?  You have to assume that the Clips would need to do a little better than Beno Udrih.

 

The Los Angeles Times has the story.

Corey is currently the longest-tenured Clipper -- coming over from Orlando during the Clinton administration.  Eight years is a long time for an athlete in his prime to remain on any roster.  Where could Corey end up? 

Only the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers have abundant cap space this summer, with the Clippers now joining that list. Other teams would be able to offer Maggette, who was owed $7 million had he remained with the Clippers, the lesser mid-level exception.

The Clippers have maintained they hope to re-sign Maggette; however, a sign-and-trade deal with him could also be in the team's plans.

 

Philadelphia has Andre Iguodala and Thad Young [who is a pure 3, despite the fact that he saw time at the 4 in small lineups].  Memphis has O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay.  Maggette has long been a sentimental favorite of Donald Tokowitz, though his relationship with Coach Mike Dunleavy has been tumultuous.   He'd be a useful piece on the wing for a lot of teams, though I don't know that he's worth more than the mid-level to any of them.    

Wherever Maggette ends up, it'll be strange to see him in road colors at a Clippers home game in 08-09. 

No reports on Elton Brand's decision as of yet. 

 

However you feel about the Gordon pick, the decision -- coupled with Thornton's emergence as a legitimate piece of the future -- marks a clear change in  philosophy for the organization.  The offense appears as it will originate much more frequently on the perimeter.  This pick is more than just about getting someone who can spread the floor.  It situates Gordon and Thornton on the wings going forward.  We can debate the value of this both functionally and aesthetically -- and whether these two guys are efficient enough to lead a winning team -- but it's clear the Clippers will have as different an offensive look next season as they've had in a long time.