You have to give Elton Brand credit.  He and his team have demonstrated some Presidential-quality message discipline.  Without ever conveying arrogance or entitlement, Elton has been able to express to the press, the Clippers organization, and the Naçion that he very much wants to stay, all the while very specifically dictating the terms of his doing so. 

So what happens from here?

• Elton could take a max contract from another team and never looks back.  If you think Elton is insincere and merely using the Clips to leverage the max from a team he believes can contend, then this is the most plausible outcome. 
  
  
• Elton signs a max contract with the Clippers, irrespective of what else they do.  This might be more likely than we realize.  Memphis certainly has a spot at the 4 for him with two incredibly promising talents at the wings in Rudy Gay and O. J. Mayo.  But Memphis is a far cry from Elton's Boston fantasy.  And it's Memphis, about as far away from the agencies and studios as you can get.  Philadelphia has started to assemble something nice, but offers no guarantee of anything. Miami just drafted one of the most talented power forwards in recent memory.  After a tour of the league, Elton could reason that his best situation remains in Los Angeles.
  
  
• Elton signs with the Clippers, but only if they pony up the cash for a legitimate #2 option.  There are some decent options out there (Chris Duhon), but no one who's a difference maker at the point other than Gilbert Arenas, and that seems improbable.  But one option might be a sign-and-trade utilizing Corey Maggette.  It's highly unlikely that Corey is going to get the money he wants from either Memphis or Philadelphia.  But there's probably a team out there that would prefer Corey's size to what they have.  Chad Ford floated the idea of PHX.  The Suns could use a durable 3, and could trade Leandro Barbosa's contract to obtain Corey.  Clipperblog isn't a Barbosa guy -- is Barbosa really the right person to feed Elton on the block 20 times a night -- but Elton Brand may feel otherwise. 
  
  
• Negotiations between the Clips and Elton become unproductive and both sides realize that a sign-and-trade might be best thing for all parties.  This would enable the Clips to go into uber-rebuilding mode.  They'd take back a hellacious expiring contract (Wally Szczerbiak or the like), assure themselves another Top 5 pick, and, in the process, clear vast expanses of cap space  to sign a max player Summer 2009, with money to burn. 

Outcomes #3 and #4 would each require a great deal of risk from the Clippers, which makes outcomes #1 and #2 far more likely. 

Per the Los Angeles Times.

There's no statement from either Brand's camp or the Clipper front office.  Unlike Maggette, who doesn't have any natural suitors, Brand would seem likely to have a couple of serious bidders for his services on the block.  Philadelphia is mentioned as a possible destination, and the Sixers are one of a couple of teams with serious money to spend.

The opt outs clear $24.8M from the Clippers overall number next season, leaving them well under the cap.  The Clippers instantly become The Team With The Most Money to Spend.  They could shower it on Elton or someone else. 

UPDATE: J.A. Adande has a semi-encouraging quote from Elton in his story on the opt out:

"We're opting out," Brand said. "It definitely doesn't mean I'm leaving the Clippers. We're trying to work it out. My intention is to stay."

...Brand's agent, David Falk, said the forward wants to see the Clippers sign a quality free agent and try to assemble a winning team in Los Angeles.

"It preserves options to make the team better," Falk said. "Clearly, if Elton decided he wanted to simply max out the dollars, he would have stayed in the deal, had a monster year and a lot more teams will have cap room next year."

Interesting.  Falk is basically telling the Clippers that if they want to hang on to Elton, they're going to have go out and spend some money.  It's a kindler, gentler Kobe Bryant game of chicken.

What inspired Brand's decision?  The vibe in Boston:

Falk said a visit to Boston for Game 2 of the NBA Finals influenced Brand's decision to opt out.

"He watched what happened when a few stars get together and agree to have a communal effort," Falk said. "He said 'That's what I'd like to accomplish in my career.'"

What would satisfy Brand?  You have to assume that the Clips would need to do a little better than Beno Udrih.

 

The Los Angeles Times has the story.

Corey is currently the longest-tenured Clipper -- coming over from Orlando during the Clinton administration.  Eight years is a long time for an athlete in his prime to remain on any roster.  Where could Corey end up? 

Only the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers have abundant cap space this summer, with the Clippers now joining that list. Other teams would be able to offer Maggette, who was owed $7 million had he remained with the Clippers, the lesser mid-level exception.

The Clippers have maintained they hope to re-sign Maggette; however, a sign-and-trade deal with him could also be in the team's plans.

 

Philadelphia has Andre Iguodala and Thad Young [who is a pure 3, despite the fact that he saw time at the 4 in small lineups].  Memphis has O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay.  Maggette has long been a sentimental favorite of Donald Tokowitz, though his relationship with Coach Mike Dunleavy has been tumultuous.   He'd be a useful piece on the wing for a lot of teams, though I don't know that he's worth more than the mid-level to any of them.    

Wherever Maggette ends up, it'll be strange to see him in road colors at a Clippers home game in 08-09. 

No reports on Elton Brand's decision as of yet. 

 

However you feel about the Gordon pick, the decision -- coupled with Thornton's emergence as a legitimate piece of the future -- marks a clear change in  philosophy for the organization.  The offense appears as it will originate much more frequently on the perimeter.  This pick is more than just about getting someone who can spread the floor.  It situates Gordon and Thornton on the wings going forward.  We can debate the value of this both functionally and aesthetically -- and whether these two guys are efficient enough to lead a winning team -- but it's clear the Clippers will have as different an offensive look next season as they've had in a long time.  

The Clips pass on Jerryd Bayless in favor of sharpshooter Eric Gordon.  The suggestion here is that the Clips will look outside the organization to fortify themselves at the point.  Gordon has the prettiest shot in the draft and can hold his own defending opposing shooting guards, but he's not a transcendent talent.  He'll spread the floor, to be sure.  But for a team that desperately needs some personnel that can move the ball around -- and move off the ball -- Gordon provides more rawness than refinement. 

UPDATE: Jeffrey Ma emails Henry Abbott: "Top ten steal: Kevin Love. Based solely on statistics our numbers have him as arguably the top player in this draft. He's more athletic than people realize as witnessed by his better than average blocks/minute. Great passer who does not need to score to make an impact. Should have been a top three selection. Top ten bust: Eric Gordon. Love the guy's college game but unless he can play PG in the NBA he will not be a success. Poor shot selection and efficiency spell doom for him at the NBA level and most NBA insiders tell me he won't be able to play the one at this level."

A lot of the leading stats guys have been chilly toward Gordon's pro prospects. 

UPDATE: Will Mario Chalmers fall to 35?  Not a chance. 

UPDATE: Chalmers, a Hollinger-projected NBA starter at PG, goes to Minnesota.  Bad beat for the Clips. 

UPDATE: For their second round choice, the Clippers go with the best talent on the board, Texas A & M center DeAndre Jordan. Jordan is a freakishly athletic and imposing big man.  As recently as late February, draft maven Jonathan Givony wrote that Jordan "looks like a pretty safe bet to be sitting in the Green Room on June 26th, the night of the NBA draft."  Though Jordan clearly has a zillion dollar body, he's reputed to have a five-cent head.

Not a bad project for a second round pick, but Chalmers would've been nicer.

UPDATE: Chad Ford on Jordan: "We knew DeAndre Jordan was sliding, but this is a little ridiculous. He's huge and athletic, and he played well when he got minutes at Texas A&M. NBA scouts would have ranked him as one of the top-five prospects in 2009. At No. 35, there is no risk and only upside for the Clippers. They have to be thrilled."

It's a great pick for the Knicks.  D'Antoni is the master of the European game.  Danilo Gallinari is arguably the best young European talent in a decade.  What's the alternative?  Brook Lopez??

Seattle recognizes the stratospheric trajectory of Russell Westbrook's game. 

The Clips will now almost certainly take the remainder of Bayless and Gordon.
 

January 3 at Palo Alto
B. Lopez: 5-14 FG, 3-4 FT, 8 R, 13 PTS
Love: 4-7 FG, 7-8 FT, 7 R, 15 PTS

March 6 at Los Angeles
B. Lopez: 8-22 FG, 2-4 FT, 13 R, 18 PTS
Love: 6-13 FG, 4-4 FT, 10 R, 17 PTS

March 15 at Los Angeles (PAC 10 Final)
B. Lopez: 5-14 FG, 5-8 FT, 6 R, 15 PTS
Love: 4-13 FG, 2-4 FT, 6 R, 12 PTS

Likely on the phone to his agent as we speak.  Lousy time to have to unload this colossus in Bannockburn on the market. 

When you look at Hinrich's contract, it's pretty favorable -- 4 more years at $10M/$9.5M/$9.0M/$8.0M.  Think the Clips might take a look?  

From Ric Bucher via Seattle P-I:

ESPN's Ric Bucher is reporting that the Sonics have traded down to the seventh pick with the Los Angeles Clippers and will get a lottery-protected pick in 2009. More details to come.

If this rumor is true -- and the first three picks go as anticipated -- the Clippers would have their choice of the troika of combo guards: Bayless, Gordon, Westbrook.

UPDATE: Looks like it's Chad Ford with the news.  He reports:

"With the No. 4 pick, expect the Clippers to take Eric Gordon of Indiana. They've coveted him as the type of dominant scorer that they've been looking for."

Clipperblog disclaims that, of the five top guards in the draft, it's least familiar with Gordon's game.  But it's worth noting that Gordon was projected as a Top 3 pick going into the 2007-2008 season.  He was then sidelined by injury at Indiana but has reportedly -- and apparently -- upped his stock during workouts over the past couple of weeks.  Having said that, I prefer Bayless and Westbrook.

UPDATE: Though there's no confirmation of the overall deal -- much less the finer points -- we have to assume that, as the initial report suggests, the 2009 pick the Clips are dealing to the Sonics is lottery-protected.  The thin margin between Gordon/Bayless/Westbrook certainly doesn't warrant much more than a mid-first rounder.

UPDATE: Ford is backing off the report, citing that there are "disagreements over the details have apparently ended discussions for now."

If your preference is Bayless or Westbrook, this could be a blessing.

I was explaining to a Laker fan in my office that, for Clipper partisans, Draft Day is typically our Game 7. So far as the Prognosticators of Mock...

Chad Ford has the Clippers selecting Russell Westbrook.

DraftExpress and Sam Smith have them going with Eric Gordon.

Real GM says the Clips "will be extremely active in the trade market," but will use the pick for Danilo Gallinari.

And Broderick Turner in the P-E writes that the Clips want Bayless, but "but fear he'll be gone by the time they select."

I sense he's right, and still maintain that it'll Westbrook if he's on the board, and Gordon if Westbrook isn't. 

Thoughts?

Chad Ford has the Clips snagging Jerryd Bayless in his most recent Mock Draft.  From his post to [enter your deity here]'s ear. 

Personally, I'm having a hard time infusing too much intrigue into the Clippers' 2008 draft because I firmly believe that the Clippers will have an easy choice to make at #7 - whoever among Russell Westbrook or Eric Gordon remains on the board.  But if you're looking for a blue sky, we-just-have-a-feeling-about-that-guy kind of pick for the Clippers, you might want to look at Italian teenager Danilo Gallinari.

The pundits suggest that a Gallinari would appeal to Mike Dunleavy's affinity for "point forwards," but I can't recall any Dunleavy team truly running its offense though a big man.  If anything, Dunleavy's tenure with the Clippers is marked by rosters with a woeful lack of quality ballhandlers at the 2-through-5. 

Here's Jonathan Givony on Gallinari during the heart of the winter Euroleague season, when Gallinari was balling as well as anyone on The Continent:

It's becoming increasingly usual to see Danilo Gallinari producing almost at will regardless of who he goes up against. His skill repertoire, knowledge of the game and physical gifts propose a devastating equation that hardly anybody can consistently contest...

Gallinari is a well-known solid shooter. Indeed he made a living off his perimeter stroke during his first year of serious veteran competition (in the Italian second division). In this game, it was interesting to see him creating his own shot in a pure face-up one-on-one setting, using a fake and a dribble to release a successful long-range bomb, but also from the low post with a turnaround jumper, cashing in off his size. He can be pretty quick displaying his mechanics, and he shows a great sense of timing to execute every move while always evaluating his match-up's reaction. Indeed, he often makes opponents bite on his fakes, forcing many fouls in the process or just paving his way to the basket. That's logically helped become the dual-threat that he is his with shooting and slashing abilities.

His body control also chimes in there. It's funny, because at first sight you might get the feeling that his big body might somehow escape his control. But the reality couldn't be further, as his body perfectly follows his orders. For example, 6-10 guys (his likely size in shoes) running at full speed in transition tend to bump into opponents that step in their way to the basket, but Danilo has no trouble slashing by them, being able to easily change directions on the run. He actually delivered a spectacular coast-to-coast play that included a behind-the-back direction change he executed with his left hand between two opponents at almost full speed. If not the quickest and most reactive guy around, he is pretty fast when he starts moving, which looks obvious when he plays transition ball. His incredibly long strides help a great deal here as well. Just to emphasize that point, he got to the free throw line an astounding 17 times against Teramo last week.

Every game is a door open to amazement. He's so skilled and fundamentally sound that remarkable plays are bound to happen on a regular basis.

 

For good measure, here's Givony's interview with the big Italian...

 

There are a couple of related items on TrueHoop from two smart basketball minds.   The first is from David Thorpe's Game Six preview/breakdown, specifically on Vlad Radmanovic's lousy defensive "starting position" against Paul Pierce in Game Five:

"Inexcusably, Radmanovic often approached Pierce standing straight up, not crouched in a defensive stance, giving him the green light to roast Radmanovic and get into the teeth of the defense. "Starting position" is preached hard to good defensive teams. Watch Boston to see the importance of this defensive strategy -- both in terms of individual stance and team positioning. If L.A. can make a major improvement in this area for Game 6, its defense should provide a tougher obstacle for Pierce."

The second item is from Coach Anthony Macri on BP: 

Early in the offense, prior to settling into the Triangle, the Lakers should look to ball-screen action. When they get tentative and their offense stagnates, Los Angeles looks for ball screens late in the shot clock. This only brings a second defender toward the attacking offensive player, typically Kobe Bryant. However, by bringing the ball screen early in transition offense, the Lakers can attack prior to Boston prepping any of their trapping or hard-hedge tactics. In fact, in many cases, they might force a switch, which would lead to Bryant attacking the rim.

There are nights when I'm watching an NBA game and it seems like each team leaves anywhere from 5-10 quality-look FGAs on the table, merely because they don't take advantage of a narrow window of opportunity early in the possession before the defense gets set.  It's not about being a seven-seconds-or-less squad or "running more" in service of more offense, or even launching a PUJIT.  I'm talking about halfcourt sets out of which strange, aberrational opportunities surface. The goal of a halfcourt set is to achieve the best shot possible.  And sometimes, against design, a look emerges by sheer glitch or good fortune.  So not to set up a S/R early because that's not the way you like to do things -- even though there's leverage to be exploited -- is stubborn.  And sometimes it's as simple as putting a set in motion without deliberation the instant the 1 hits his starting block.  Being more creative on offense isn't always so much a case of needing to draw up all sorts of different stuff.  It's just a matter of employing a schematic stutter-step; you can run the same set...just run it at a varying pace.  Defenses are reactive by their very nature.  And like all systems, defenses take time to adjust to change.  For the offense, there's a nanosecond window between the moment a defense recognizes that an offense has switched things up and the moment a defense concludes it has to do something about it.  

The same goes for defensive ball pressure.  If the other team decides to run the point through a guard without ballhandling credentials, you're silly for not pressuring and shaving a good 3-5 seconds off the possession.  I'm not saying you have to gamble with a high-risk/high-reward perimeter trap, but you shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth.  

 

 

From Thompson in the OC Register:

...what fans want to know, is whether Brand will exercise the opt-out on the final year of his contract that is due to pay him $16,440,000 for the 2008-2009 season. Brand’s agent, David Falk, has been having preliminary discussions with the Clippers.

“Nothing’s really come up,” Brand said Thursday. “We’re just looking at the landscape. He’ll probably know more in the next week and a half or two weeks. But I’m here now, training and getting prepared.”

There have been rumors that Brand not only is considering opting out but also rejecting any contract offer the Clippers extend and instead severing ties with the franchise that he has played for the past seven years.

Including his first two seasons with the Chicago Bulls, Brand has averaged 20.3 points and 10.1 rebounds.

“Even if there is an opt-out, it doesn’t mean I’m going to a new team,” Brand clarified. “It’s hinging on my agent saying to me, ‘Here are your options.”’

So what does Brand believe is his best-case scenario?

“The best-case scenario is to be here and to get to the championship, in the time that we have, and then everything would be great,” Brand said.

Sounds like Brand is either [a] leveraging the opt-out clause for a possible extension, or [b] stalling while he sniffs out the free agency market.  Remember, cap room is tight. And so much depends on the moving parts.  What does Shawn Marion do?  Would Elton be willing to sign a backloaded deal with Philadelphia?  If Elton decides he wants out, would the Clips try to work a sign-and-trade?

 

From Abrams in this morning's LAT:

The Clippers, who have the seventh pick of the upcoming NBA draft, are looking for one, and after seeing Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless over the weekend they held their first mass workout on Tuesday.

The big collegiate names who attended were guards Russell Westbrook of UCLA, Chase Budinger of Arizona and forward Anthony Randolph of Louisiana State. Prospects on hand expected to go later in the draft were Malik Hairston, J. Gordon and Justin Hawkins.

Coach Mike Dunleavy said that the Clippers would entertain offers to move up in the draft and that the Miami Heat may shop the second overall selection.

If the Clippers stand pat, they figure to choose among D.J. Augustin, who is short but considered the top pure point guard in the draft, Indiana's Eric Gordon and Westbrook. Bayless is expected to be taken by the time the Clippers pick, as is USC guard O.J. Mayo.

Clipperblog reiterates its belief that, despite Augustin's affinity for breaking down Steve Nash game tape, he's not suited to the pro game. When Kansas' zone befuddles you both as a scorer and a distributor, when you can't fight through a Big-12 screen, there's just not that much opportunity at the next level.  Having Augustin at the point and Thornton at the 3 would also force the Clippers' hand defensively at the off-guard.  I know, I know.  Orlando manages to do it with Jameer Nelson with Hedo Turkoglu at the small forward -- but the Clippers can't afford to give a defender like Keith Bogans [or Quinton Ross] substantial time at the 2 because they don't have a coherent offensive scheme right now.

To be sure, you'll read all sorts of affable pre-draft interviews with Augustin over the next few weeks.  Invariably, they will include quotes from Augustin saying things like "People say I'm too small to play at the next level, but I think heart counts for more than size..." That's a nice sentiment.  But you can appreciate Augustin's collegiate game and oversized cardiac muscle and still recognize that there's a chasm of difference between Chris Paul and Damon Stoudamire [that's optimistic].

The Clippers achieved some measure of success a couple seasons ago with big guard play.  And so long as they remain a below-average passing team [but a roster with some good one-on-one isolators/post players], that's the path of least resistance back to respectability.  Better to have a larger combo guard with good judgment [Westbrook] than a undersized PG with questionable decision-making skills.  

Ray Allen has convinced me that a traditionally weak defensive player can become an effective cover in the right system.  Clearly, the Celtics have a very definitive m.o.: when the ball swings to the wing [in this case Kobe Bryant], the help comes quickly, and almost always from the right spot.

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One of the ancillary problems created by the Lakers’ choosing to double Garnett off Perkins is that it leaves Perkins unchecked for offensive rebounds.  He collected three over the course of his 14 minutes. 

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I know it seems counter-intuitive, because Kevin Garnett is this vaunted defensive monster, but given what the Celtics are doing defensively, I think the Gasol-Garnett matchup might be the most favorable on the floor for the Lakers.  Gasol went 8-12 on the night against Garnett.  Over a 90 second sequence in the first quarter – in the midst of what was ultimately the Lakers’ most prolific offensive stretch – Gasol hit three consecutive shots.

•    [1st, 8:29] The Lakers isolate Gasol against Garnett.  They overload the weak side, making it tougher for Boston to send help. Gasol employs a little rocker step, then launches a quick baseline drive.  He breezes past Garnett to the hole for a layuo.  Garnett traps the ball, but is whistled for goal tending.

•    [1st, 8:00] Lamar Odom drops the ball into Gasol, this time in the mid-right post against Garnett. Gasol backs Garnett into the lane, then fakes a pass to an imaginary teammate on the baseline.  Garnett bites, which allows Gasol enough space to spin back and toss up a pretty left-handed hook.  

•    [1st, 6:52]  The prettiest of Gasol’s goals.  Again, he’s in the mid-right post against Garnett. Bryant lingers on the perimeter.  Allen hedges…about as much as you can hedge on Bryant from 21 feet.  This time, Gasol spins baseline with a nasty right-handed dribble for a massive dunk.  

I realize it’s strange to highlight the Lakers offensive success in a game they lost in third quarter, but it’s worth noting that any Game Three adjustment by Jackson will undoubtedly require leveraging Gasol…and forcing Boston to make some tougher help decisions. 

****

Boston takes control of the game toward the end of the first half with a couple of 3PMs – one from Pierce, the other from Allen.  On the former possession, watching Vlad Radmanovic completely lost in the defensive halfcourt brings back all kinds of fond memories.  When the skip pass comes from Rajon Rondo in the near corner across the court to Pierce on the top right arc, Radmonovic is…maybe…what’s…does he…is he trapping Rondo?...He’s nowhere, basically, and the wide open look by Pierce gives Boston its first seven point lead.  The second 3PM, 30 seconds later, comes in transition.  The Lakers, all in all, have played tremendous halfcourt defense this season, but in transition against a team with dual threats on the wing and a big man who can shoot from anywhere inside 20, they’re lost.  Bryant, smartly, attaches himself to Garnett downcourt until Odom arrives.  The problem is, Allen sets up along the arc.  By the time Odom catches up to the play, Allen has launched his 3PA, and the Celtics take their first double-digit lead of the game.

Boston ranked 19th in pace this season, but given the offensive versatility of their roster and the number of guys who can convert from any spot on the floor – they should run more against the Lakers.
 

 

When Sam Cassell draws a smaller guard, his eyes light up.  He'll back in his cover -- in this case Derek Fisher in the second quarter -- then shoot over his right shoulder with ease, elevating over the shorter defender.  How many times did we see it here in Los Angeles?  Back when the Clippers were respectable and contesting PHX each time they faced off, Sam's efficiency against Nash forced Mike D'Antoni's hand. By the time the playoffs rolled around in 2006, D'Antoni assigned Shawn Marion to cover Sam because both Nash and Barbosa were helpless against him.