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Long Divison, Part Two

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz on Tue, 10/31/06, 08:43am:

Category: General

One of the essential, constant variables of an NBA season is that your team must distribute 19,680 minutes of basketball [plus 25 minutes per overtime] among its roster. Above all else - PPG, FG%, Reb, TO and BLK - minutes played is probably the most important stat on the chart. Why? Because, fundamentally, if Corey Maggette isn't on the floor, he can't get to the line. He also can't turn the ball over. Likewise, Tim Thomas can't drain a 3 from the bench. And Q Ross can't make a defensive stop. And Shaun Livingston can't record an assist.

Anyway, you get the picture.

Minutes Played, 2005-2006

Elton Brand	3,096	39.2 MPG
Cuttino Mobley	2,978	37.7
Sam Cassell	2,654	34.0
Chris Kaman	2,562	32.8
Shaun Livingston	1,524	25.0
Quinton Ross	1,519	22.7
Daniel Ewing	973	14.7
Corey Maggette	946	29.6
*Vlad Radmanovic*	886	29.5
James Singleton	758	12.8
*Chris Wilcox*	658	13.7
Zeljko Rebraca	413	14.2
The Rest	851	20.3

It goes without saying that the total minutes played number has to be looked at mindful of injuries/games missed, which is why the MPG number is probably more important.

One of the nice-problems-to-have on a roster is depth, a surfeit of guys who can "give you good minutes." It probably isn't a coincidence that the Portland Trailblazers sucked last year and that they handed Viktor Khryapa 1,490 minutes. In turn, the Dallas Mavericks got to the NBA Finals despite Devon Harris' getting only 1,273 minutes. Khryapa's MPG was 21.6 and Harris' was 22.7. Before you even peek at the standings, you know full well that Dallas was the superior team in '05-'06.

Just after the Clips were bounced from the playoffs last season, I asked the clipperblog faithful to sketch out how many shots should be allocated to each player in an 85 shot-attempt game - the premise being that every shot that Naçion fave Jumpin' James gets is a shot Maggette doesn't.

So. Who should be eating minutes? We know that Sam will be on the floor less, but we're certain that Shaun will take those minutes and then some. We all want to see James out there more often, but at the expense of whom?

Please show your work.

Comments

d.han wrote:

10/31/06 12:32:37

Steve wrote:

d.han - 8 minutes a game for TT? Can you say cancer? I don't think the Clippers paid him $24M to play 8 minutes, but I think you'd rather have him on the floor some than pouting on the bench at any rate.

Injuries, blowouts, foul trouble, etc. sprikle minutes around to other guys, but the Clippers are going to play an 8 man rotation when it counts (Singleton, Ewing and a backup center will get some minutes, but this team is too loaded and as much as I love him, Singleton is going to have to wait another year.)

There are 96 minutes to use at the 4 and 5. These will go to Brand, Kaman and Thomas. I don't see Dunleavy playing Thomas at the 3 - not when he's loaded there, and not when the rest of the west is going smaller and smaller.

Brand - 38 - I wouldn't mind seeing fewer just to get him some rest before the playoffs, but he'll be on the floor whenever it matters.
Kaman - 34 - they're not going to pay him $52M and decrease his minutes.
Thomas - 24 - that's 96 front court minutes.

144 minutes are available at the 1, 2 and 3. These go to:

Cassell - 30
Livingston - 32
Mobley - 33 - This may be low. Cat is the blanket and Dunleavy is Linus. It's not what I would do, but it's what I expect him to get.
Maggette - 29
Ross - 20 - I love the guy, but 20 minutes is a lot on a team this deep

10/31/06 15:10:17

d.han wrote:

Alright...

Take the 4 from Ross (24->20)
Take the 6 from JJS
Take the 3 from the REST

Give it all 13 to TT, and that should up him to 21.

However, I do prefer Q's D over TT. I guess I still need TT to prove something over the course of an entire season.

10/31/06 15:31:50