The Percentage Play
Posted by Kevin Arnovitz on Tue, 05/22/07, 10:04am:
Regarding LeBron last night, passing out was the right play. I don't believe that a possession in the closing seconds of a game should somehow be subject to different criteria than it would an hour earlier. In other words, if kicking the ball out to a wiiiiide-open D. Marshall is the right play with 5:37 left in the second quarter [in a hypothetically identical sequence], then it's the right play in the closing seconds. To say otherwise would be like hitting on 16 against the dealer's 5 because, well, you're down to your last chip. You'd never do that [provided you're a by-the-book player who wants to lose as little money as possible at the table].
The goal of a basketball possession is to get the highest-percentage shot on the court. Does anyone deny that Marshall's shot was the better percentage play? If you played that set 20 times -- LeBron throws it up 10 times and Marshall shoots that open shot 10 times -- who will have more points at the end of the exercise? I thought so.
I realize that a LeBron FGA in that situation appeals to the mythological, but if we're talking about winning basketball games, other factors have to be taken into consideration. I'm a little incredulous of the star-worshipers who believe otherwise.
The goal of a basketball possession is to get the highest-percentage shot on the court. Does anyone deny that Marshall's shot was the better percentage play? If you played that set 20 times -- LeBron throws it up 10 times and Marshall shoots that open shot 10 times -- who will have more points at the end of the exercise? I thought so.
I realize that a LeBron FGA in that situation appeals to the mythological, but if we're talking about winning basketball games, other factors have to be taken into consideration. I'm a little incredulous of the star-worshipers who believe otherwise.
KD wrote:
Marshall, despite his struggles, is hitting that shot at a fifty percent clip. Outta ten times, 1.5 PSA. LeBron, avis mon opinion a-gain, is making nine out of ten of those layups/dunks. It looked like an easy layup/dunk, even if he has to jump off his right foot. 1.8 PSA.
I just can't blame him. At 22, he hasn't had enough court time to immediately see that the option he'd been disabused of pursuing game-long suddenly open up again, improvise, and go up for the shot. But he has to develop that, at any age. I'd be saying the same thing had Kirk Hinrich, who couldn't see the rim that entire Bulls series, passed on what looked like a lay-in to find Nocioni in the corner late in a game against Detroit. And Hinrich is probably the anti-Rod Strickland when it comes to interior finishing.
Just re-watched -- at 9.1 seconds Rasheed was still in back of the rim on the weak side, and Prince was a half-step behind LeBron. There was a lane there. And I forgot the other thing I was going to say during that walk from the TV to the laptop.
Also, the first three letters of my anti-spam picture are "PIL," so I'll have "Rise" in my head for the rest of the day. And this is a day after, and I'm not joking, I had Herb Alpert's "Rise" in my head for the better part of the evening. As it should be.