Orlando 113, Clippers 87

The Magic present more than a fair share of problems for the Clippers on both ends of the court. Offensively, the Magic spread the floor with multiple three point shooters and are anchored by the post scoring of Dwight Howard. Don’t collapse on Howard and he’ll foul out all your big men and get a handful of easy buckets at the rim. Do collapse on Howard and those shooters will light you up from outside. Even for the best defensive teams in the league, the Magic are a handful.

On the defensive end the Magic can be equally imposing. Orlando employs a ton of rangy, athletic defenders who are afforded the luxury of relentlessly chasing shooters off the three point line because Howard is backing them up.

Without Eric Gordon, the Clippers are stagnant as an offense. Orlando’s guards play smart defense on Baron Davis all night, offering him plenty of space on the perimeter by going under on every pick and roll possible. With Baron’s penetration abilities taken away and Gordon sidelined, the Clippers play absolutely no one who can penetrate and score, and more importantly, penetrate and draw the Magic perimeter defenders in a bit. Without the Magic defenders moving and having to rotate, the Clippers pass the ball along the three-point line and are forced to settle for a ton of perimeter jumpers. The Clippers shoot 14 of their 21 shots from the field beyond 15 feet in the first quarter. To give you an idea of why this is bad, the Clippers shoot right around 36% on the season from beyond 15 feet. It’s not exactly the ideal shot location.

To beat the Magic, or at least stay within shouting distance, you have to at least attempt to get Dwight Howard in foul trouble. Marcin Gortat is a capable backup, but he isn’t much of a one-on-one scorer in the post or a big shot blocking threat. Get Howard on the bench and Orlando’s perimeter defenders can’t sell out on every perimeter swing of the ball. Minus Howard you can stay at home defensively on those shooters and made Jason Williams or Jameer Nelson beat you at the rim. Unfortunately, the Clippers never even come close to getting Howard in foul trouble. Howard doesn’t collect a single foul the entire game, which is preposterous from someone of his size and strength. You’d think at some point he’d accidentally crush someone like Lenny from Of Mice and Men, but it never happens. The Clippers only shoot two free throws in the entire first half.

Essentially the Clippers got themselves in a jump shooting contest with the best jump shooting team in the league. And of course, the results were predictable. The Magic shot 52% from the field, made 7 three-pointers, and scored a whopping 67 points in the first half. Meanwhile the Clippers only shot 42% from the field and scored 41 points. You’re not making up a 26 point deficit against a team like Orlando.

Watching Dwight Howard do most of his work in the post prior to the arrival of the ball, then finishing with a pretty jump hook, is a nice reminder of how even the rawest of big men can be polished into serviceable low post scorers with time and plenty of patience. When Howard first entered the league, he was all freakish dunks, blocked shots and rebounding. DeAndre Jordan, although not on the level of Dwight Howard, obviously, is much the same way. Plenty of size and athleticism, but just a lack of general skill and footwork in the post. Watching the two go at it in their early stretch of one-on-one time against each other late in the first quarter is fascinating.

After Dwight Howard makes a pretty post move and baby hook on one end [:47, 1stQ], DeAndre Jordan goes all Howard circa 2005 by rolling clean to the hoop and skying high to throw down a Baron Davis alley-oop with one hand that was up near the top of the square [:32, 1stQ]. At [8:22, 2ndQ] Dwight Howard starts on the left block against Jordan and sweeps across the lane with a big running righty hook that falls in. It’s a skilled shot, one that Howard’s been working on for years, and it finally looks natural and unforced. To his credit, DeAndre Jordan comes right back at Howard on the other end [8:07, 2ndQ], posts up and gets great position in the middle off the key, turns, and puts in a right-handed jump hook.

At this point, wins and losses don’t mean much of anything. It’s the small moments– the tiny, barely visible victories like DeAndre Jordan holding his own against Dwight Howard for a few series that mean something. It’s the development of the players we know will be Clippers come next year. It’s finding out who can fit with Blake Griffin and who can’t. In that sense, every game serves a purpose. The end result may not matter, but the games themselves still do. Even the 26 point blowouts.

Mike Dunleavy out as GM

From Clippers.com:

The Los Angeles Clippers and General Manager Mike Dunleavy today have severed ties. Dunleavy previously also served as the team’s head coach from 2003-04 until February 4, 2010, when he resigned as head coach.

The organization has determined that the goal of building a winning team is best served by making this decision at this time. The team has simply not made sufficient progress during Dunleavy’s seven-year tenure. The Clippers want to win now. This transition, in conjunction with a full commitment to dedicate unlimited resources, is designed to accomplish that objective.

Neil Olshey, presently the Clippers’ Assistant General Manager, will assume the duties created by Dunleavy’s departure. He joined the organization as Director of Player Development for the 2003-04 season. He served as an Assistant Coach in 2004-05, and was elevated to the position of Director of Player Personnel from 2005-06 through 2007-08. He assumed the role of Assistant General Manager prior to the start of the 2008-09 season.

Olshey has played an important role in the completion of several significant team transactions, including the deals which brought Marcus Camby, Craig Smith, Rasual Butler, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and Drew Gooden to the Clippers, among others. He also played a integral part in administering all preparation for the Clippers’ last four NBA Drafts, which produced Al Thornton, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, and last year’s #1 overall pick, Blake Griffin.

We’ll have more coverage on this surprising move after tonight’s game.

Game Thread: Clippers at Orlando

Game 64

4p PT

Fox Sports Prime Ticket

980 AM

Are the Clippers Behind the Curve?

I spent the weekend at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston. Last year, the same conference was held in a small academic building on the campus of MIT in Cambridge for 400 attendees. This year, the numbers exploded — one thousand individuals wore name tags, along with 400 people on a wait list. Those in Boston included NBA executives and prominent agents. Organizers moved the conference across the Charles River to the Boston Convention Center in order to accommodate the demand.

The substance of the conference was pretty much what you’d expect. Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey (the founder of the conference), Analytics godfather Dean Oliver (who works for the Nuggets), Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, Portland Trail Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard, Boston Celtics assistant general manager Mike Zarren and others who apply advanced statistical analytics to better their teams spoke on various panels about the value of this discipline in generating wins. Academics presented papers on everything from the value of a blocked shot to how best to maximize shot distribution among a team’s players.

All in all, 16 of the 30 NBA organizations were represented at the conference by executives or statisticians — that’s about double the number of teams who had paid attendees in 2009. It was heartening to run into smart young thinkers in this area who were free agents last year, but have been hired in the past 12 months by teams. Kevin Pelton, who has worked tirelessly in this field, just signed on with the Indiana Pacers. Ryan Parker, of Basketball Geek, has joined the Portland Trail Blazers. Jon Nichols, a brilliant grad student at Harvard in information technology, has been hired by an undisclosed team. For all the findings and discussions, the most profound takeaway from the conference was the overwhelming evidence that the application of advanced analytics is taking over the NBA. What was once a novelty has become a full-fledged movement. Not every team has embraced these tools, but as Dean Oliver pointed out, the smart ones have. Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Portland, San Antonio have probably been the 10 most aggressive organizations. What do they have in common? Every one of these teams has a record of .500 or better this morning. If I’m a fan of a specific team, I want my team to be on that list and, unless my squad is winning titles on the strength of its personnel decisions (and checkbook), I’d be bothered if they weren’t.

Some teams executives will tell you that the League has gotten smart about furnishing teams with more extensive data (stats like deflections), and that the need to have experts on the payroll isn’t necessary. But there’s a vast difference between data and informed conclusions. The former are easy to come by; the latter requires great expertise. As Zarren said in the session on basketball analytics, “You can do two things: get more data, or use statistical techniques with the data that you have.” As we move forward in the empirical age, it strikes me that if you don’t have the proper personnel who can understand and utilize these techniques, your organization is going to be left behind.

The Clippers aren’t ignorant of advanced metrics. Mike Dunleavy made the wise decision to shift Rasual Butler into the starting lineup in part because basic plus-minus data were telling him that was the smart thing to do. Back in October, team executives said they targeted Craig Smith in the off-season because they loved his efficiency numbers. But these observations barely penetrate the surface of the shale. There is so much to be understood, a fact more and more teams are beginning to grasp.

Teams are very proprietary of what they’re learning and even whom they’re hiring to crunch these numbers. For all we know, the Clippers have an army of credentialed statisticians studying data, making unique discoveries about the team and passing along those findings to the decision makers in Playa Vista. If that’s not the case, Clippers fans should hope it soon becomes a reality. In an age where information is king, NBA teams, global corporations, governments and individuals can’t afford to be playing catch-up.

Utah 107, Clippers 85

For the past twenty one years, Clippers games in Salt Lake City have come to resemble traditional Japanese Kabuki theater.  Fans would enter the venue, secured in the knowledge of the storyline and how it will end.  There are no surprises and no suspense, the joy of spectacle lies in small deviations; how the Jazz might prevail on this night and by how much.  The players in their respective jerseys might have changed over the course of two decades, but there is a comforting rhythm to the almost unbroken string of Clippers losses in Utah, as predictable as the tides and the turning of the earth.  When the Clippers finally pulled out their lone victory in twenty one years, on January 22, 2003, the world did not come to a cataclysmic end as the ancient Mayans had prophesized, though perhaps the world did hold its breath for a brief moment to ponder this inexplicable outcome, which had defied all known laws of physics, before exhaling and settling back into its comforting axis of rotation, from which the unbroken streak of Clippers losses would continue on as before.

For most of those twenty one years, when the Clippers record in Utah was a cumulative 1-39, the coach of the Utah Jazz has been Jerry Sloan.  It is perhaps no coincidence that one of the most stable franchises in the NBA would  have such an unfathomable home record against one of the most unstable franchises in the league.  Since Jerry Sloan took over as coach of the Utah Jazz from Frank Layden in 1988, the Clippers had hired and fired 12 coaches, counting Kim Hughes and Dunleavy for seven of those years.  It is no wonder then, that even though players have come and gone, their bright eyed rookie seasons turning into tearful retirement speeches, the Utah Jazz continues to run the same pick-and-roll plays for Darren Williams and Carlos Boozer that they had run for John Stockton and Karl Malone, with the same effectiveness against succeeding new generations of Clippers.  That Jerry Sloan has survived for so long as a coach in the NBA is a rare anomaly, as the tenure of most NBA coaches, particularly Clippers ones, is often short, nasty, and brutish.  It is no wonder that current interim Clippers Head Coach Kim Hughes professes his admiration for Jerry Sloan and perhaps, if he were honest with himself, also a bit envious of Sloan’s long tenure.

In any other town, in any other franchise; being the bridesmaid but never the bride for twenty one years would have brought out fans with pitchforks and the taciturn Jerry Sloan would have been led to the guillotines a long time ago.  But there is a certain faith in the system which the late Larry H Miller held for his long time coach, and though Sloan never won a championship, it is hard to quibble with his consistent winning record and consecutive playoff appearances year in and year out.  There is a great article by Ian Thomsen for Sports Illustrated recently about the head coach in the NBA being a lion tamer in a cage with five lions, trying to get them to perform before a jeering crowd of 20,000 each night.  More than any other professional sports league; the power, money, and the guaranteed long term contracts reside with the players.  Coaches like Jerry Sloan, despite their long tenure, have to find ways to inspire and cajole their players, to get them to sublimate their own sometimes selfish desires for the greater glory of the team.  Being in the same office for over 21 years earns you some respect, and for an interim coach like Kim Hughes, who is under contract for another month, the ability to shape and hold his players accountable must seem like a daunting task.

The Clippers started out the game with a hot hand, and they looked like the team that had shocked the Jazz five days ago at the Staples Center.  That victory remains the crown jewel of Kim Hughes brief coaching career; a rare win against a playoff bound team who was fighting to hang on to their top four ranking in the West.  Before that victory, Coach Hughes had implored his team to give maximum effort for four quarters.  He said that wins and losses against teams like Utah no longer mattered, he just wanted a consistent effort for 48 minutes and would live with the results, with his head held high.  In the exuberance aftermath of that victory, there were some optimism that perhaps this collection of Clippers players will be able to build something positive for the off season after all; that individual growth and an espirit de corps can be forged for next season, and perhaps a few of the players with expiring contracts can be brought back, instead of being scattered to the four winds.  Bring on the playoff teams, Kim Hughes had insisted; he welcomed the challenge, and his players would welcome it too.  They needed to be tested and they needed to chart their growth and maturation as a unit. 

For most of the first quarter, the Clippers took the game to the Jazz, they played with fierce abandon, as if to defy the gods.  They moved the ball crisply and they made Utah seems like a tired team, whose energy and future was all but spent.  For a brief moment, it seems possible that the impossible might happen again, as the Clippers shot out to an early ten point lead, forcing Jerry Sloan to call a timeout.   It is worthwhile to watch disciplined teams like Utah and San Antonio after they emerge from a timeout huddle.  There is no panic in their game, and more often than not, they don’t try to do anything different, they just run the same plays they ran before, but with more attention to details and execution.  The Jazz came out of the timeout and stopped the bleeding.  Then they slowly, methodically, cut into the Clippers early lead.  You can feel the inevitable turning of the tides, and even though the Clippers were playing relatively well, with Drew Gooden scoring inside and the ball finding the right shooters in the corners, you felt that Utah was just patiently waiting for their familiar foil to self destruct, in accordance with the cosmic laws which govern Clippers games in Salt Lake City.

When they finally lost the last vestige of their lead late in the second quarter, it seemed as if the final breath of life had vacated the Clippers players lungs, and any hope they had of defying the gods or the immutable laws of the universe had dissipated.  Generations of Clippers players before them had lost to generations of Utah players on the other side, and now the familiar rhythm of the Kabuki play was once again established.  Utah had clawed out a one point advantage at halftime, but to long time fans of the Clippers, it might as well have been a twenty point lead.  To ensure that the ending is no longer in doubt, and that the storyline adheres to tradition, the Jazz came out and scored seven straight points in the third quarter, essentially ending the game.  They would methodically outscore the Clippers by 21 in the second half, sending them reeling toward another blow out loss in Utah. 

That the Clippers were playing without Eric Gordon, on the second night of a back to back, probably didn’t matter very much.  The same lack of focus, poor shooting from their key players–Baron and Kaman–and lackadaisical turnovers did them in once again.  Baron and Kaman combined to shoot 9 for 32 from the field, for a 28% field goal percentage, and combined for 10 turnovers between them.  To the comical delight of the crowd, with the game decided in the fourth, the Clippers had a four on one fast break and turned the ball over on a traveling violation.  These priceless moments are why people attend Kabuki plays.  The ending, the victory was never in doubt, but little variations on how you get that victory is entertaining.  Kim Hughes’ ultimatum, his plea that the Clippers play with all out effort and focus for 48 minutes is yet to be fulfilled.  Even in their previous victory over Utah at the Staples Center, they had played with focus and determination for only 46 minutes, with the final two minutes almost costing them the game.  Now that the gauntlet of effort has been thrown down by Kim Hughes, and what he has asked of this Clippers team is not unreasonable, what will happen if his players defy this simple challenge?  Certainly  Drew Gooden played with effort and toughness tonight, and he needed to because he is playing for his next contract.  But for Baron and Kaman, secured in their guaranteed money, knowing that they will be here next year even though Kim Hughes may not, what incentive or threat can Interim Coach Hughes hold over them?  If he benches Baron and Kaman, the team will, in all likelihood, lose even more games, and he will certainly be cleaning out his desk next month, even as Baron and Kaman will remain, watching him carry out his belongings, ready for their next coach.

The Clippers sustained record of futility in Salt Lake City might be etched upon the stars, or it might have been the last will and testament of some ancient gods, but a more reasonable explanation might be attributed to the quiet steadiness of Jerry Sloan; his long tenure and enduring system amidst the ever changing faces of Clippers coaches, most without much authority, defied by their players, and ultimately sacrificed to the altar of futility.  And so continues the rhythm of the tides.  The Clippers are now 1 for their last 41 against Jerry Sloan’s team in Salt Lake City.

Oklahoma City 104, Clippers 87

The Oklahoma City Thunder has been a good measuring stick for the Clippers the past two years.  In the final game of the 2009 campaign, the 23-win Thunder team hammered the Clippers at the Staples Center by 41 points, 126-85.  In a nightmare season, marred by injuries, the 2009 Clippers walked off the floor for the final time to a chorus of boos from their usually forgiving fans.  Though both franchises were destined for the lottery, the Thunder finished the season on a resoundingly strong note, and a clear message was sent to the league that their talented young core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green would be a team to contend with in the future.  In a way, the Clippers and Thunder were as two trains passing in the night, one franchise bound for future glory, and the other was wracked with familiar questions and doubt.

The summer of 2009 changed the Clippers fortune, when they unexpectedly won the lottery and the rights to Blake Griffin.  Then, Mike Dunleavy, wearing his general manager cap, orchestrated some canny moves to bolster the bench by turning Zach Randolph’s bloated contract into Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair, as well as the acquisition of Rasual Butler.  Optimism was restored to Clippersland, and there was hope that the now rejuvenated, deep and athletic Clippers squad can make a run for the final playoff spot in the West.  As the 2009-10 campaign began, many observers saw the Clippers and Thunder on equal footing.  Both teams were on the rise, and has a chance to compete in the difficult Western  Conference.

The Clippers and Thunder met earlier in November, playing two games in a span of five days.  Each team won on the other’s floor, and both contests were decided in the fourth quarter.  Though the Thunder has proven themselves as contenders in the West and had a better record, the Clippers clawed back from their tough earlier schedule and proved their mettle by beating their Western Conference rival in a hard fought game in Oklahoma City.  It was a much needed victory, a type of win that playoff teams squeak out during the course of a season.  But four months later, that win in Oklahoma City has remained the Clippers best road victory against a playoff bound team in the 2010 campaign.  And when the two teams met again on this early March night, the fate of both franchises has already been defined.  And from the first few minutes on, the Thunder proved that, without a doubt, they are a team to be reckon with, come playoff time.  While the Clippers are once again, bound for the lottery, the fate of their franchise, their coach, and their free agents, unclear.

The Thunder asserted themselves on the defensive end very early on.  Coming in to the game, it was clear that the Clippers have an edge inside, and it was as if Oklahoma City almost conceded one on one coverage to the Clippers big men.  Their perimeter defense was suffocating however, and the Clippers perimeter players could not get an open look against the Thunder’s taller and more athletic counterparts.  Durant, while not known as a defensive stopper coming into the NBA, has groomed himself into a serviceable defensive player.  Green, Westbrook, Harden, Collison, and Serge Ibaka all played very physical and tough team defense, their defensive rotations were quick and aggressive.  They concede nothing and outmuscle the smaller Clippers wing players.  They would get 13 steals and block 11 Clippers shots during the game and hold the Clippers to 37 percent shooting.  Asides from Smith, no Clippers player was able to hit even half their shots.

Durant is a burgeoning offensive star who’s about to cross that rare threshold into superstardom.  But it is clear that the Thunder’s calling card is their rangy, athletic, perimeter defense.  It is the mark of a good, young team, one that the Western Conference powers will be loathed to face come the final weeks of April.  They suffocated Baron Davis early on.  With the Clippers offense stagnating after a promising early start, they trapped Baron in the corner and blocked his desperation three.  As if to redeem himself, Baron came right back down the floor and clanged off another three at the six minute mark.  Oklahoma City capitalized on every Clippers missed shots and boneheaded miscues early on and ran off 12 points in row.  By the time Craig Smith was brought into the game for Drew Gooden, the score was 18-6, Oklahoma City.  The burly Smith made his presence felt right away, scoring on his first touch and drew a foul.  All night long, the Clippers would crawl their way back to eight points, to six points, only to have Oklahoma City pull away again.  Never once did it feel that the Clippers were going to legitimately mount a charge against this Thunder team.  Near the end of the first quarter, Durant made a beautiful jab step against Rasual and blew by him for a thunderous dunk.  It is hard to blame Rasual, as Durant has been hitting step back fifteen footers against him early on, racking up 15 points in the first quarter alone.  It was a clear case of going up against someone who is taller, more skilled, and more athletic, someone who is on a completely different level as a player.  In a way, the dream that the Clippers have of being on the same level as this young Thunder squad was revealed to be a fantasy tonight.  As the 2010 season slowly winds to a close, the Thunder has proven to be a clearly a superior team, and a legitimate playoff squad.

That the Clippers somehow closed the 10-12 point lead to four points in the third quarter at the four minute mark is a bit of a surprise.  Rasual Butler got hot in the third, abetted by some beautiful drive and dish by Eric Gordon, and hit some three pointers to pull  the Clippers to 68-64.  During one sequence at the 6:27 mark, Drew Gooden set a solid pick and freed Eric for a drive into the lane, as the defenders converge on Eric, he kicked the ball out to a wide open Butler for a 3.  It was a solid play, executed by a fundamentally sound basketball player from Kansas who knows how to set picks.  At the 5:50 mark, the same play was ran but with Kaman instead of Gooden.  This time, Kaman rolled to the basket too early, hoping to get the ball, and the play broke down as Eric was never able to find daylight.  It was another opportunity lost, and the Thunder once again pulled away convincingly as James Harden was brought back in.  They would score the next eight points during the next three minutes and re-establish their lead back to 76-64 as the third quarter drew to a close.

With Craig Smith picking up his fifth foul at the 11:43 mark of the fourth, the Clippers most effective offensive weapon on this night was taken out of the game.  After that, the Thunder re-asserted their dominance and slowly put the game out of reach.  Harden made a smart, aggressive move to the hoop and put his body into Kaman’s chest, drawing a foul and putting the Thunder up by 15 at the 9:57 mark.  Gordon would hit a three and made a tough layup to pull the Clippers to within 11 but that would be as close as they get the rest of the way.  The final score of 104-87 was not quite emblematic of the game, as the Clippers were within striking distance for most of the night.  However, one never got the sense that it was all that close, that the Clippers were capable of overtaking the Thunder on this night, or this season.  As the final stretch run of the 2010 season begins, it is clear that the path of the two franchise has diverged, as clear as that last game of the 2009 campaign.  Thinking back on the exuberance from the Oklahoma City Thunder players on that April night of last year, when it seems that they enjoyed their time on the court, and didn’t want to go home for the off-season, it reminded me of another Clippers squad from the 2000-2001 campaign.  The season was lost a long time ago, but their joy was infectious as they blew away a 51-win Phoenix team on their final home game of the season.  Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, and Lamar Odom celebrated on top of the scorer’s table and thanked their fans.  They milled around the Staples Center floor afterwards, not wanting to leave, wanting to play on, as if the promise of their vast potential shimmered seductively before their eyes, as fragile as a mirage; and as if by leaving, they might forsake that beautiful synchronicity which they had miraculously achieved on that night, and might never attain again.  Yet the promise of next season burned brightly that evening, and Clippers fans left the Staples Center yearning for the 2001-2002 season to begin.  It is perhaps too much to hope for with this 2009-10 Clippers squad, and one cannot help but admire this young Thunder team with a bit of jealousy and perhaps yearn for what could have been.