When is losing better than winning?

The obvious answer has something to do with extra lottery balls, but let’s ignore that aspect (for now). Sometimes winning can complicate things where losing won’t. A loss is just a loss, and a defeat to the Hawks is to be expected given the circumstances. But a win? A win tonight would have made an even bigger scapegoat out of Baron Davis, who sat out with a sore back. A win tonight would have slightly dinged whatever trade value Baron has left. A win tonight would have required us to put at least a little hope back into the season, in Steve Blake, and in Kim Hughes among others. Does any actual good come from that scenario? Was Red right the first time? Is hope really a dangerous thing after all?

For a bit the Clippers threatened to complicate things by winning. Despite the turnover discrepancy and Atlanta’s dominance in the paint (70-38), the Clippers were only down 6 points going into the fourth quarter, 81-75. Not unlike the last time these two teams met, Atlanta turned it on in the fourth quarter and stepped up their intensity when it mattered most. The Clippers’ shot selection to start the fourth quarter looked like this:

• 22-foot missed jumper by Bobby Brown [11:40], 25-foot missed three-point attempt by Rasual Butler [10:56], Chris Kaman made two point shot [10:08], 28-foot missed three-point attempt by Steve Novak [9:30], 15-foot jumper missed by Chris Kaman [9:07], Craig Smith traveling [8:38], Craig Smith turnover [8:18], Chris Kaman Technical Foul [7:39].

In a little less than 5 minutes of game time, the above stretch put the Clippers behind 18 points. The results shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Bobby Brown is primarily a jump shooter, Steve Novak is strictly a jump shooter, Rasual Butler sticks to the outside and Chris Kaman in the 4th quarter is always primed to shoot more jumpers than anything else. Eventually you have to consider that it’s not the coaching, the scheme, or the execution, but instead it’s the personnel. The Clippers have a lot of guys in love with their jumper on the roster and they don’t have anyone who can consistently penetrate and get to the rim. Until that changes (and it will eventually), these types of quarters are bound to keep happening.

All in all the Clippers don’t play poorly on the offensive end. They shoot 50.7% from the field and do a decent job getting clean looks for Rasual Butler in particular. Steve Blake dishes out 9 assists to 3 turnovers, which is pretty impressive considering he has yet to practice with the team. Maybe the most admirable contrast between Blake and Baron is that Blake gets the Clippers into their sets almost immediately with little to no senseless dribbling. Blake can’t hit anything tonight (1 for 6 from the field), but the moderation on his shot attempts is a breath of fresh air. There are things Blake will never be able to do as well as Baron, but at least Blake is mostly aware of his limitations. He’s not the first player to have a successful NBA career built off a keen sense of self-awareness.

It’s strange to say this but the Clippers miss Al Thornton quite a bit tonight. I’ve never been high on what Thornton brings to the table, but tonight against his hometown Atlanta, a team he always played well against, Thornton likely could have contributed. The irony of Thornton being traded just hours before tip-off isn’t lost on me. In December I wrote a piece about Al Thornton being transformed and concluded he had figured it out, and that he was now much more efficient, and that he was well on his way to cutting out the long range jumper from his arsenal completely. Practically right after I hit “submit” Al went back to throwing up contested 20-footers in an effort to boost his stats and earn more minutes. That’s just the way Al Thornton played — he’d look dominant one game, and fall of the face of the Earth the next. There’s a special spot all carved out for him in the illustrious pantheon of frustrating Clippers. Who knows which Al Thornton would have came to play tonight, but the Clippers desperately needed someone who could at least challenge the Hawks at the rim.

In a way watching tonight’s game is a liberating experience. Gone are the days of eyeballing the standings and stressing over wins and losses. Gone are the stretches of not being able to stomach DeAndre Jordan’s now easily forgivable follies. Gone are the hopes and expectations that came with the former collection of talent. After the transactions the last two days, the present and immediate future suddenly bare no consequence. It’s freedom. It’s probably not the brand of freedom the players thought they were getting when Dunleavy moved up to the front office, but it’s freedom nonetheless.

From Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter:

“Cavs get Jamison and Telfair, Clippers get Drew Gooden and Washington gets Illgauskas, Al Thornton and Brian Skinner and Cavs 1st round pick.”

Here’s how the trade looks on ESPN’s Trade Machine.

Drew Gooden’s contract expires at the end of this year. By making this move the Clippers avoid the chance of Sebastian Telfair activating his 2.7 million dollar trade option for next year and also get Al Thornton’s 2.8 million off the books as well.

The Clippers will have 33.5 million guaranteed on the books for the 2010-2011 season, not including the cap hold their 1st round pick will demand or the 6 minimum cap holds. It was predicted earlier in the year that the 2010-2011 salary cap would be anywhere between 50 – 54 million dollars. With that scale in mind, a maximum contract should check in right around 16 million dollars (30% of the salary cap number). According to those numbers, the Clippers should now have the space to offer a max contract.

Update (4:05p PT): The Clippers plan to buyout Drew Gooden’s contract and allow him to become a free agent, a league source told Y! Sports.

Update (4:25p PT): Ric Bucher reporting that Brian Skinner is actually not included in this deal.

Update (5:15p PT) The Clippers have given no indication that they’d buy out Gooden.

Update (6:37p PT) Baron Davis may sit out tonight due to a sore back.

The expected stylistic change brought on by interim head coach Kim Hughes raises an all-important question: Can the Clippers function effectively as a running team? I took the opportunity to watch a ton of game tape to get a better sense of the Clippers’ tendencies, strengths and weaknesses when they push the ball in transition. Let’s take a look and see who is fit for the running game.

The Wings: Gordon, Butler, Thornton, R. Davis

• Eric Gordon – Gordon might possess the least complex game of any guard in the league. The simpleness of Gordon’s game is particularly evident in transition. When filling the wing on the break, Gordon either spots up on the arc or makes a b-line straight for the rim. There’s no in between. Think about this: When was the last time you saw Gordon attempt a reverse? A floater? A shifty hop step and opposite hand finish? Gordon’s main tactic on the break is to go a million miles per hour towards the rim and attempt a right handed layup, contact and defenders be damned. In a way, Gordon reminds me of a top-end speedy sports car with bad tires in the snow: There’s a lot of power there, but it easily slips out of control. Gordon’s main problem is that he absolutely pounds the ball into the hardwood, almost as if he were playing with a flat ball on a dirt court. Gordon has a ton of time to progress towards harnessing his explosiveness and staying under control, but for right now he’s far from a polished ballhandler and playmaker on the wing. Verdict: Despite the likely increase in turnovers, Gordon’s increased free throw attempts and added scoring should make up for it.

• Rasual Butler - As the proverbial “3 and D” guy for the Clippers, Butler is essentially a specialist who does a few things very, very well. However, outside of perimeter shooting and on-ball defense, Butler doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table. As the wing man on the fast break he often shies away from filling the lane completely, and instead opts to back off and spot up for short to mid range jumpers, of which he shoots a pretty bad percentage (36% from 10-15 feet). The same aspect of Rasual’s game that can allow him to go off for 30 points will also likely keep him from being a great wing player in transition: Butler rarely ever passes up his shot, even if he’s gone cold. There’s a selflessness and playmaking ability necessary to consistently run a successful fast break , and I’m not sure Butler has that. When Butler avoids his natural tendency to spot up and fills the lane completely, he’s a subpar finisher unless the dunk is readily available. Verdict: An increased tempo means Butler will have the ball in his hands more often…which also means he’ll be liable to shoot some frightening PUJIT’s. He’s much better suited for the halfcourt.

• Al Thornton – Thornton’s role has diminished quite a bit this year, yet he’s still one of the better finishers at the rim on the roster. In theory, an uptempo game  should better showcase his talents and athletic ability. There’s a problem here though. Most 2 on 1, 3 on 1, or 3 on 2 fast breaks happen from blocked shots and steals. Rarely will you see a defensive rebound result in a mismatched fast break. The strong majority of transition opportunities actually come from your secondary break. The resulting looks from those secondary breaks? Spot-up jumpers. Ask yourself this: Do you really want Al Thornton shooting more jumpers? I’d be more inclined to predict success for Thornton in an uptempo game if: A. The Clippers actually caused turnovers and B. The Clippers secured long defensive rebounds more frequently. Verdict: Is a 20 foot Thornton jumper a better look than what the halfcourt offense could produce? Probably not.

• Ricky Davis – In Mike Dunleavy’s offense, Ricky Davis provided one key service: He stretched the floor. Ricky has actually been a pretty solid player in his limited time –he ranks favorably among the league’s other wings in field goal percentage and three point field goal percentage. Ricky’s transition opportunities have been limited, but he’s been less than impressive in his chances. Not surprisingly for a man with the nickname “buckets”, Ricky Davis is first and foremost a shooter. Nearly every one of his field goal attempts this year have been jumpers. Similar to Rasual Butler, if he gets an open look, he’s firing. Verdict: Ricky Davis can be useful in an uptempo setting, but his real value is in the halfcourt.

We’ve long discussed how the Clippers wingmen are terrible on the defensive glass, but this year they’ve taken it to a whole new level. Out of players who log at least 25 minutes a game, only four wing players in the entire league average lower defensive rebounding numbers than Rasual Butler, Eric Gordon and Al Thornton. Andre Iguodala (5.9 DRB per game) nearly averages more defensive rebounds a game than Butler, Gordon and Thornton combined (6.7 DRB per game).

What’s one solution for wings that don’t box out and usually don’t even come within 10 feet of available rebounds? Release. Close out on outside shooters, and then fly by and leak out. Camby and Kaman may not be Wes Unseld and Kevin Love, but they can deliver some decent outlet passes.  What’s the risk if the wings aren’t doing anything on the glass as is? Might as well try and get some easy buckets, right?

Even with all that said, the reality here is that the Clippers’ wings are shaky ballhandlers and even shakier decision makers. Since three of the four wings are jump shooters, speeding up the tempo will create them more open jump shot opportunities, just without Kaman or Camby underneath in prime offensive rebounding position. The mid to long range two-point jumper is the most inefficient shot in all of basketball, yet the Clippers’ wings (primarily Butler and R. Davis) use that as their main calling card on the fast break.

The goal of an increased tempo is to create easy looks. However with the Clippers’ current personnel on the wings, a running style might not accomplish that.

Gordon was selected to the team, along with Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook and Marc Gasol.

The game is scheduled for February 12 — in 16 days. Presumably, Gordon’s toe will be healed by then.

Then, of course…

At halftime of the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge & Youth Jam, the Clippers’ Gordon and the Toronto Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan will compete in the first NBA All-Star Slam Dunk-In, a single-round slam dunk competition. Fans will be able to vote via SMS text message and at NBA.com to determine who will advance to the Sprite Slam Dunk the following night.

Oddly, DeRozan didn’t make the rookie team, which means he’ll be well-rested for his dunks.

Last year, both Gordon and Al Thornton turned in solid performances at the Rookie Challenge in Phoenix. Gordon scored 19 points (6-8 FG), grabbed six rebounds, dished out two assists and recorded two steals. Thornton went for 10 points (5-7 FG), two rebounds and two assists.

Five thoughts from tonight’s game:

• Bench Play – After a sloppy first quarter from the starters, the Clippers bench came in and made an immediate impact, accounting for 22 of the team’s 50 first half points. Al Thornton’s role becomes more and more defined as the season moves along, and again tonight he proved what he’s capable of doing when healthy. Thornton went 7 for 9 from the field for 17 points in 17 minutes of play by winning his one on one battles and attacking at every opportunity. Ricky Davis flirted with a triple double with 8 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists in his 27 minutes. Craig Smith didn’t get to double-digit points again tonight, but he did have the game high +/- mark at +12. The bench may need to continue their hot play, as both Gordon and Telfair went down with injuries late in the second half tonight.

• Bulls Offense – It’s no real secret that no one on the Bulls roster can score in the low post. Since that’s the case, the Bulls are forced to shoot a ridiculous amount of jumpers in the halfcourt setting; they actually lead the league by an overwhelming margin in attempts from 16-23 feet, which also happens to be the least efficient area on the basketball court to shoot from. Point being, if the Bulls are missing their perimeter looks in the halfcourt, they’re likely going to lose. Part of the reason the Bulls were able to jump out to an early lead was because they avoided their halfcourt offense like the plague. By constantly pushing the ball and turning the game into a track meet of sorts, the Bulls were able to jump out to an early 26-19 lead. When the tempo finally settled down, the Bulls offensive deficiencies became more clear. They had no one to dump it into on the block, so instead they settled for lots of Hinrich and Rose jumpers. The pair of guards combined to go 13 for 38 (34%) from the field. You live by the jumper, you die by the jumper.

• Clippers Bigs vs Noah – There may not be a player in the NBA who more closely resembles Camby’s unique style of play than Joakim Noah. Both attack the offensive glass incredibly hard, both are very good defensive rebounders, both have hideous jumpers (although Camby’s is effective while Noah’s is not), and both play with an incredible amount of energy. Tonight, Camby pulled in an obscene amount of rebounds (25) while Noah posted yet another double-double (14 points and 15 rebounds). Chris Kaman struggled a bit when matched up against Noah, and found most of his success (surprisingly enough) taking Noah off the dribble. Tonight’s game really served as evidence to the maturation of Chris Kaman. Instead of banging his head against the wall and continuing to fire up jumpers against a phenomenal and lengthy defender in Noah, Kaman put the ball on the ground and forced Chicago to send him to the line. Noah is one of the better post defenders Kaman will see all year, and to put up 20 points against him and a strong Chicago defense is impressive.

• Offensive Versatility – Individually, the Bulls have a ton of defensive talent spread across the floor. Hinrich is a tough perimeter defender, Noah is emerging into a premier post defender, and Luol Deng can more than hold his own against most small forwards. Ideally, you don’t want to attack these defenders in one on one situations. As soon as the outsized Jannero Pargo got on the floor though, the Clippers attacked their new found mismatch. It didn’t always yield points, but more often than not the Clippers offense felt “smart” tonight in the halfcourt. If opposing coaches want to play specialists, smaller guards or general defensive liabilities, Dunleavy will always call sets to attack those players. More often than not, it works.

• Baron Davis, Dagger Provider – The Clippers’ bench built the lead to 14 at the 6:35 mark of the fourth, but the Bulls came roaring back behind some transition opportunities and quick pick and rolls early in the shot clock. After a Noah dunk at the 4:09 mark of the fourth, the Clippers lead was suddenly down to four. Enter Baron Davis. A cringe inducing three point attempt fell first, then a 19-footer the next possession, then a heady pump fake to draw the foul on a three point attempt. After knocking down 2 of 3 from the stripe, the Bulls continued to answer and didn’t go away until Baron hit a runner and eventually iced the game with two free throws late. For those of you keeping track at home, that’s 11 huge points in the final 4 minutes. Baron’s play down the stretch was clutch scoring at its finest.

• Mike Dunleavy returned to practice Saturday after going to the hospital Friday morning for treatment on a herniated disk in his back. “I feel OK,” Dunleavy said, “but I’m not going to be doing any dancing any time soon.”

• Eric Pincus grades the first 30 games for the Clippers. Pincus points out the biggest change in the most improved Clipper so far this year, Chris Kaman: “The biggest difference in Kaman’s offensive attack this year is a smooth face up jumper.  It’s a shot Dunleavy has encouraged Chris to take for years – but it’s only over this past summer that Kaman developed enough confidence.”

• Al Thornton continues to statistically baffle. The good news is that among all small forwards who have logged over 25 minutes a game, Al Thornton ranks second in offensive rebounds per 40 minutes. The bad news? Thornton ranks dead last in defensive rebounding. Is this a cause for concern, or just a case of Marcus Camby gobbling up all the available boards?

• Sandy Banks of the Los Angeles Times writes an interesting profile on Donald Sterling.

• In his latest entry on Jordan’s Journal (login required) DeAndre updates us on what it’s like to guard Kevin Garnett, his New Years resolutions, and why Steve Novak is getting his bad Santa on. The question on my mind: How much longer do we have to wait before we can see Blake and DeAndre star in a cheesy buddy cop movie? Someone get a script to Baron Davis, pronto.

• Jonathan Abrams of the New York Times checks in on Blake Griffin.

• Via Lisa Dillman’s twitter account: “Clipper update: Al Thornton not practicing because of a stomach virus. Questionable for game tomorrow vs. Portland.”

• All-decade lists dominated the internet the last few weeks, so I’ll spare you and pose just one question: Who was the Clipper of the decade? Was it Elton Brand? Chris Kaman? Sam Cassell, perhaps? Write-in votes will also be accepted. Let’s hear it.