Thursday, September 2, 2010

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Five Things Vinny Del Negro Should Know

Posted by D.J. Foster On July - 8 - 2010

From my column at ESPNLosAngeles.com:

Congratulations, Vinny Del Negro.

As the new head coach of the Los Angeles Clippers, you have inherited a promising, young core. But before you get too comfortable in your new digs, there are a few things you should know about the roster.

1. One of your best players has no sense of his limitations.

Knowing what you can’t do on a basketball court is sometimes just as important as knowing what you can do. Baron Davis is a gifted distributor with other-worldly court vision, but he’s also one of the worst jump-shooters in all of basketball, evidenced by his 27.7 shooting percentage from beyond the arc last season. That number would be passable in limited attempts, but Davis is gluttonous with his shots. Despite his terrible proficiency, Davis shot 296 3-pointers last season, and was in the top 10 among point guards in attempts.

This is hardly a new development. Davis has never been an efficient outside shooter, even in his halcyon days with Golden State. Most veterans typically adjust their games as they get on in years, but the 31-year-old Davis has remained stubborn in his approach to the game.

Despite this, Del Negro seems confident he’ll be able to get Baron Davis to buy into his philosophy.

“I told Baron we’re going to run things the right way here and he needs to jump on board,” Del Negro said in his introductory press conference. “At the end of the day obviously Baron has been in the league a long time. A lot is expected of Baron, as well it should be. He knows that. We’ll get together, get on the same page as quick as possible and make things work.”But beware, Vinny. You can’t stop Baron Davis. You can only hope to contain him. 

2. You have only one efficient outside shooter to work with. 

In his first two years in the league, Eric Gordon has shown he’s a highly efficient shooter, but his game is a little more Robin than Batman. While Gordon is definitely a viable threat from deep (over 37 percent from long distance during his first two seasons), the scouting report on him has worked its way around the league: close out hard on the perimeter, force Gordon to put it on the deck, and swarm with help defenders.

Can the Clippers make defenses pay for collapsing on Gordon and leaving other shooters open? Last year they certainly couldn’t. The Clippers ranked 27th in 3-point percentage, and, not coincidentally, 27th in offensive efficiency.

Under Del Negro, the Bulls were actually worse offensively than the Clippers last season. Chicago ranked 28th in both 3-point percentage and offensive efficiency and attempted more shots from 16-to-23 feet than any team in the league, an area where the Clippers ranked a measly 24th in field goal percentage. 

Many of the nagging offensive issues in Chicago will follow you to Los Angeles, but at least you have one bullet in the chamber with Eric Gordon. Use him wisely.

To read the rest of the column, go here.

What the Del Negro Hire Means

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On July - 8 - 2010

It’s too early to discern whether Vinny Del Negro has the command, tactical strength and creativity to build the Clippers into a respectable entity in the Western Conference. My preferences for Dwane Casey aside, enough smart basketball people I’ve spoken to believe that, despite his early struggles in Chicago, Del Negro’s learning curve has been steep. They maintain that getting out from under a Chicago management team that undermined him at every turn — and let his best shooter walk in 2009, then dealt the other perimeter threat at last year’s deadline — will allow him to prosper. A good coach knows how to delegate and Del Negro’s preliminary short list of assistants is impressive. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical, but the beauty of sports is that these questions reveal themselves in due time.

The organization’s choice of Del Negro reveals some important realities that have little to do with Del Negro himself:

  • Owner Donald T. Sterling still makes the final call on many vital basketball decisions. It’s important to note that this isn’t unusual in the NBA and most pro sports for that matter. While Sterling might be uniquely ill-equipped to make many of these calls, he who signs the checks makes the rules. Still, it’s disconcerting that basketball people aren’t empowered to make the final basketball decisions. Tonight, LeBron James will likely announce that he’s chosen the Miami Heat as his destination. The allure of playing with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh can’t be understated, but it’s not incidental that if he lands in Miami, he’s chosen an owner in Micky Arison. Comparatively speaking, Arison is a hands-off owner who remains behind the scenes and delegates basketball operations to Pat Riley. Olshey, as a first-time general manager, hasn’t built up the equity and track record Riley has in his three decades as a championship head coach and executive. But Olshey has demonstrated early on that he’s aggressive, pragmatic and has good taste in talent. One source I spoke to about the Clippers power structure told me, “Neil has the potential to be very good at this job, but the question is, will ownership let him?”
  • As disheartening as ownership’s claiming the right to make the final call on the coaching hire, Olshey got his second choice out of dozens of available candidates. Del Negro wouldn’t have been named a finalist if Olshey weren’t confident he could perform the task. Part of the job for any Clippers general manager is negotiating with Sterling — on hires, trades and signings. It took Mike Dunleavy weeks to cajole Sterling into dealing Zach Randolph last summer.  Whether Olshey is given the authority he should to assemble the roster the way he sees fit will become apparent in the coming weeks. He conveys a very strong power of persuasion, more so than Dunleavy. On the flip side, Sterling has been generous with the checkbook in recent years and hasn’t seen much return on his investment, a dynamic that could potentially make him more reluctant to spend.
  • Presence and charisma trump whiteboard acumen, at least with many owners. The Del Negro hire also underscores the advantage former players still have when teams make choose coaches. Del Negro plugged his tenure as an NBA veteran in his press conference yesterday. For all of Casey’s attributes, Del Negro’s ability to regal someone like Sterling with stories of his playing days and to tout how that résumé item translates into respect in the locker room and on the practice court is powerful — probably a little bit too powerful.

As we head into Summer League, a few other realities are surfacing. The free agent market is insane. Mike Miller has a lot of appeal as a small forward, but he’s likely to command a five year deal in the $40 million dollar range, especially now that teams like New York have been left with enormous cap space and nobody to spend it on. The Clippers would be wise to resist the temptation to overspend and forfeit their flexibility, whether on Miller, Kyle Korver or anyone else.

A more likely scenario — and a smart one — would be to fill out the roster with decent value players. The list of available 3s won’t dazzle you, but the Clips could do a lot worse than a guy like Ryan Gomes, or even Dorell Wright, for a short-term contract while Al-Farouq Aminu finds his sea legs. Both Gomes and Wright are strong defenders on the wing and Gomes has developed a nice stroke from the outside (Wright has proficiency from mid-range).  Neither will vault the Clippers into playoff contention next season — and that might be frustrating to a hungry fan base — but both bring assets that would help the development process and not kill the Clippers’ cap flexibility.

Tayshaun Prince would be a plus at the small forward spot, but only if the Pistons are reasonable with their demands. Absorbing Prince’s $11.1 million salary would still leave the Clips with more than $7 million to fill out the roster with another combo guard (Randy Foye, Shannon Brown, Roger Mason). Again, these aren’t flashy names, but the primary goal remains developing the five young players. Baron Davis and Chris Kaman will claim a ton of possessions. The Clips need to allocate the remaining opportunities to Griffin, Gordon and, when they’re on the floor, Aminu and Bledsoe.

As disheartening as the summer might be, don’t undervalue the importance of the long view. Griffin could be a star. He and Gordon have enormous potential as an inside-out threat. Be patient, allow success to materialize in due course. Winning now isn’t realistic, so plan for 2011 and beyond.

Baron Davis’ Letter to the Free Agent Field

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On June - 30 - 2010

Ramona Shelburne of ESPN Los Angeles tracks down Baron Davis during his travels. He delivers this message to the free agent class:

I’m writing this from Africa, a far cry from the 24-7 media updates on what’s known as the biggest and best free agency class in the history of the NBA. I can’t help but think about two summers ago, when I was making the decision to stay or leave from the Warriors. I came to LA to make an impact on the city, to help change the shape of another organization. I took the road less traveled. I left a team that was one win shy of the playoffs. I left a city that I had made a home. I left fans that were amazing. All to cause change, to start over again. I came to Los Angeles, hoping to rebuild and reignite a franchise.

It takes a lot of luck, talent, money, and strong leadership to have continued success in the NBA. I can say without a doubt that we’re on the right track. The franchise is moving into a younger more vibrant direction. The negative mindset is gone. I definitely don’t think I need to pitch anyone on the benefits that Los Angeles has to offer. Everybody knows its one of the best places in the world. And when it comes down to it, it shouldn’t be about the city anyway, [it's] about what you want to accomplish. If you truly are passionate about the game of basketball and want to accept the challenge, come join us. We have a young nucleus that has the tools to compete every night, and I can’t name another franchise whose fans have kept faith and supported their team like Clipper Nation has supported us…

To read the entire letter, please visit Shelburne’s story here.

LeBron James: The Case for the Clippers

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On May - 16 - 2010

At ESPN Los Angeles, I file a brief on behalf of the Clippers for LeBron James’ services. Some excerpts:

James shares some culpability for Cleveland’s embarrassing Eastern Conference semifinals loss to Boston, but James didn’t fail a test of character nor did he fall victim to a civic curse. The loss to Boston was a basketball failure. If James wants to remedy that, he’ll look at the candidates for his services and make a quantitative basketball decision based with a single question in mind: Which team has the best supporting cast to maximize his talents?

…For reasons that range from the historical to the theoretical, the Los Angeles Clippers have been removed from the list by most observers. Yet, the Clippers’ primary assets — a strong foundation at four positions and the financial flexibility — have never been more relevant to the discussion of James’ future. We’ve learned that James is human, that if surrounded by mediocre talent, his team will produce less-than-desired results. For James to win a championship, a few essential ingredients on the floor are required. From a basketball standpoint, the Clippers can give James what he needs.

No other team in pursuit of James has a better 2-through-5 set at the four other spots on the floor.

James’ four teammates would include two guys younger than him in Griffin and Gordon, and two older veterans in Davis and Kaman. James would be the true fulcrum of a complete starting unit that can dominate on the glass, guard the perimeter (and excel defensively overall under the right coach), run in transition and pick defenses apart in the half court both inside and out.

Behind that starting five, the Clippers will have another top-10 draft pick and curio DeAndre Jordan in development, along with a few vets who will happily accept the minimum to play in Los Angeles behind James.

The most important question a Clippers team composed of James, Davis, Gordon, Griffin and Kaman will pose to opposing coaches is this: Who are you going to leave to help on LeBron?

James’ addition would allow Kaman to return to the low block, where he’s most efficient. Opponents have to guard James so tightly on the perimeter that Kaman will pick up a couple of opportunities per game just by being under the glass or along the baseline inside of 15 feet.

Gordon won’t have to force the issue, as he started doing when the Clips desperately needed a bucket last season, which was often. Instead, the third-year guard can settle into being a lethal weak side threat alongside two phenomenal passers who know where to find him.

Griffin is a natural force and a much better option for James than a stretch-4 who can’t stretch or guard. Stoudemire was the right fit for the Cavs at the deadline. James would get many of Stoudemire’s assets with Griffin, a dedicated kid who will be eager and willing to sculpt his game around James and defend as if his life depends on it.

Skeptics might ask what about Davis? Is he willing to sublimate his ego to become the second (or even third) banana? Davis has already tacitly recognized that, on the other side of 30, he’s no longer a No. 1 option for a successful NBA team. He moderated his shot selection somewhat in 2009-10, an adjustment that lifted his efficiency numbers even as his usage rate dropped to its lowest level since 2002-03. He’d love nothing more than to graduate into a Jason Kidd-like role provided he has a closer he can pass to.

The loss to Boston taught James and the rest of us that breadth and depth of talent are far more important to a team’s success than anything else. That doesn’t mean James and his advisors are wrong to consider things like endorsement potential, livability, the voraciousness of the local press corps, proximity to Akron, ownership or a franchise’s historical legacy in the decision-making process.

But if James is truly interested in surrounding himself with four teammates who have a full range of talents to complement his game and embody a smart mix of youth and experience, he’d be short-sighted not to give the Clippers a very, very close look.

The story includes some more specific basketball arguments. You can read it in its entirety here.

Clippers 107, Golden State 104

Posted by D.J. Foster On April - 11 - 2010

If tonight’s game felt familiar to you, there’s a reason for that. You’ve played in this game before.

Let me explain. From the arc of the game right down to some of the characters in it, tonight’s matchup felt a lot like a glorified pickup game.

Take Corey Maggette for example. Ever play with someone that calls every single foul? Even if he’s the one that charges in to you at full speed? Well, that’s Maggette. He does his bull in the china shop routine and completely ignores teammates once he puts the ball on the deck. Everyone hates playing with the guy who calls every foul, and I have a hard time seeing anyone getting any joy out of playing basketball with Corey Maggette. To wit, Maggette went into full blown black hole mode en route to a three-for-16 performance from the field tonight.

Baron Davis is that guy who has the most talent on the floor, but there’s always something missing. Whether it’s his jumper or his defense, there’s always something that you can point to with him and say “that’s the reason why he’s not elite.” Tonight, Baron plays as close to a perfect half of basketball as possible, going seven-for-10 from the field for 19 points, five rebounds, five assists and zero turnovers. But then Baron injures his wrist late in the first half, and he eventually has to leave the game because of it. It’s a shame. Even when Baron does everything right, something eventually goes wrong.

With Eric Gordon, Drew Gooden, Travis Outlaw, Craig Smith, and Baron Davis all out of action, the pressure fell squarely on the shoulders of Chris Kaman (or, the one guy taller than everyone else) to lead his team offensively. Kaman responded well against the Warriors small front line, scoring easily throughout the game on the inside and totaling 27 points on the evening.

Steve Blake plays the role of gym rat tonight, logging an outrageous 46 minutes due to the Clips being shorthanded at guard. It’s always fascinating to watch players like Blake in the midst of chaos. Blake’s that guy that passes, cuts, screens away from the ball and all that other nonsense. It looks out of place at the park, and it looks out of place at Staples tonight.

There are a couple of funny moments in the fourth quarter of this one. Devean George brushes off the cobwebs to hit a few shots, and both times he runs down court screaming and pumping his fists. It’s hard to tell if he’s being sarcastic — I have no idea how serious of a person Devean George is, but it’s hard not to picture George as the ridiculous old dude down at the park who once a month turns back the clock and hits a few shots and simply has to let everyone know about it.  Between George’s theatrics and the slightly insane enthusiasm of Ronny Turiaf, the Warriors at least provide entertainment value down the stretch.

The Clippers win this one behind the late game scoring of Rasual Butler (or, that guy who tries to do way too much) and DeAndre Jordan (that one kid that can dunk). After three straight buckets right at the rim by Jordan, Butler knocks down a mid-range jumper and then a big three to pull the Clippers within one at the 6:22 mark of the fourth quarter.

From there, the game plays out like both teams are locked up at game point. Suddenly, the defense ratchets up about 40 notches, and the previous Laissez-faire approach to defense goes out the window. Mike Smith actually mentions at the three minute mark that the “next bucket wins.” He’s referring to Lawler’s Law of course, but you could have fooled me.

The play of the game comes in the clutch at the [2:02, 4thQ] mark. Chris Kaman gets the ball on the left block, and DeAndre Jordan ambles over to the left wing to act as a kickout for Kaman should he get in trouble. Aside from the hilarity of DeAndre Jordan acting as a spot up shooter with Kaman having the ball in the post, the play works wonderfully. After looking confused for a bit, Jordan gives a quick basket cut and Kaman delivers a beautiful pass (!) to Jordan for the easy dunk. The Clips lead goes to five, and they hang on the rest of the way.

April basketball for the Warriors and Clippers isn’t much different from the pickup game for us regular scrubs. The more experienced players on both sides won’t remember this game for any reason, as it will just blend into the thousands of other games they’ve played. Neither team cares much about the result really, as wins and losses don’t really matter at this point.

But then there’s the kid who can dunk. He isn’t experienced yet, so these wins mean something. It’s confidence. It’s matching the second highest total for rebounds in your career (15). It’s a game deciding bucket. Maybe to the bitter veteran those things don’t mean anything, but you don’t survive as a young player in the NBA if you don’t enjoy the small victories when they come your way.

Sacramento 116, Clippers 94

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On April - 9 - 2010

How do you begin to assess a team that’s abdicated any sense of accountability on the defensive end of the floor?

Sacramento is able to conjure up whatever it wants in the first half, putting up 63 points on 47 possessions (134.0 efficiency). Early on, they shred the Clippers in the pick-and-roll. At (1st, 5:55), Udrih dribbles off a Carl Landry screen to a wide open swath of hardwood 13 feet from the basket on the left side. It’s an atrocious display of PNR defense that gives the impression that neither big nor small has any inkling of the other’s intentions. 30 seconds later on the very next possession (1st, 5:26), Landry slips a screen for Tyreke Evans when Kaman steps high to contain the rookie. Drew Gooden, the big man behind the action, is completely unprepared for the rotation. Evans lobs a pass to Landry over the disoriented scrum of Clippers, giving Landry a clear path to an easy slam.

The Kings get good mileage on the Evans-Landry pick-and-roll throughout the night. (1, 3:19) is another good example. The Clippers choose to trap Evans (Baron Davis and Gooden), which means Kaman picks up Landry as the former Rocket forward dashes to the rim. This stretches the Clippers because Rasual Butler is the sole remaining defender on the right side. He’s caught between Andres Nocioni in the corner or Jason Thompson at about 20 feet just beyond the right elbow. The pass goes to Thompson, who drains the 20-foot face-up jumper. Thompson is 39 percent from that distance, just a hair below league average, though that number is probably a bit higher when he gets as much time and space as he does here.

When the Kings aren’t picking the Clippers apart on these sets, they’re sniffing out obvious mismatches. After the Clippers pull within four at 29-25, Sacramento goes immediately to the mismatch – Nocioni on the left block posting up Baron Davis (Mardy Collins has entered the game to pick up the Evans assignment). All it takes is a couple of dribbles by Nocioni, then a spin for a turnaround right-hander over his left shoulder. (1st, 0:58).  The Kings go right back to Nocioni against Davis again for the final possession of the period. Same spot, same result.

Nocioni vs. Davis is only one example. In that instance, it’s advantage Sacramento on account of size. But when the Kings post up Landry against Kaman off the left block (2nd, 3:20), it’s to leverage quickness. Kaman is no match for a nimble Landry off the dribble one-on-one.

When the Clippers aren’t failing defensively in the half court, they’re completely lost in transition. These aren’t fast breaks in the classical sense. The Clippers get back, but they lapse entirely when figuring out defensive assignments. Francisco Garcia spots up unattended on the wing for a 3-pointer to give the Kings their first double-digit lead at (2nd, 10:42).  He earns another easy bucket in transition at (2nd, 4:46) when he runs hard down the left sideline off another Clipper miss. This time it’s a jumper inside the arc.

86 NBA players have attempted greater than 200 shots from beyond the arc this season. Baron Davis ranks dead last among those 86 in 3-point percentage (27.7 percent), which is why Garcia is more than happy to run underneath the screen and yield Davis the shot at (2nd, 10:27). Davis’ brick rims short, and produces an easy coast-to-coast run-out for Evans, who knives through the Clippers’ skeletal transition defense (2nd, 10:19).

Incapable of defending Sacramento’s rudimentary pick-and-roll game and unable to fend off mismatches that yield substantial advantages to the Kings, the Clippers resort to a zone for stretches of the third quarter. A look at the game log might lead you to believe the strategy worked, but watching Sacramento’s possessions again, it appears the Kings missed some easy opportunities — i.e. Nocioni passing up a wide open corner-3 at (3rd, 8:54), Landry missed 5-footer (3rd, 8:01). If you’re feeling generous, credit the zone for luring Beno Udrih into a couple of ill-advised, long 2s.

After whittling the Kings’ lead down to eight, the Clippers surrender 32 points on 22 possessions in the final frame. After a Landry miss to start the quarter, the Kings score on each of their next nine trips down the floor. The Clippers aren’t getting outwitted. A good number of these buckets occur in one-on-one situations — far less creative stuff than we saw in the first quarter. The Kings are bouncy, while the Clippers are listless, wholly willing to afford Sacramento all the space they need.

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