Thursday, September 2, 2010

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Carmelo and the Clippers

Posted by D.J. Foster On September - 1 - 2010

You’ve heard the rumors. Carmelo Anthony wants out of Denver, and the Clippers have emerged as one of the likely destinations. Could a marriage between Melo and Los Angeles work?

When considering a potential deal, there’s a couple of things to keep in mind. First off, Anthony would absolutely have to sign a contract extension. I’d say it’s safe to assume that the Clippers would have no interest in forfeiting future and current assets for a one year rental on Anthony. If the Clippers make a move towards Anthony he’d have to sign the 3-year, $65 million dollar contract extension as part of the deal. That’s the first hurdle. Is Anthony willing to lock into a long-term deal with the Clippers as opposed to hitting free agency?

For argument’s sake, let’s assume Anthony is enticed by the Clippers core and the bright lights of Los Angeles, which offer far more opportunities for him and his wife in the offseason. What do the Clippers give up to get him?

If there’s one thing you come away with after reading this, let it be this: Blake Griffin is untouchable. He’s not going anywhere. If Carmelo is the acquired target, you could probably put Eric Gordon in that category as well, although that’s not as certain as Griffin is. If Griffin and Gordon aren’t being moved, what do the Clippers have to offer?

Because of Carmelo’s $17 million dollar contract the Clippers would simply have to move Baron Davis or Chris Kaman to make the salaries match. The Clippers can’t trade anyone signed this offseason until December, and if Anthony has his way, he’ll force his way out long before then. Even if Carmelo remains on the market until December, the Clippers don’t have many salaries to trade that will add up to that big deal. So while we’re making assumptions, it’s also probably safe to say that to acquire Anthony, Kaman or Davis would have to be involved in some capacity. 

And that presents another hurdle. It’s hard to believe the Nuggets have interest in Baron, as they already have Chauncey Billups and their point guard of the future waiting in the wings in Ty Lawson. Acquiring Baron just doesn’t make sense for them. If it’s Baron being traded, a third team would almost certainly have to get involved. Maybe a team like Charlotte, who would probably take a chance on Baron, could serve as a potential trading partner. The list of teams without their starting point guard penciled in is slim even when you don’t consider the length and money left on Baron’s contract. Moving Baron to get Anthony would be extremely difficult, even if his reputation around the league is much better than some members of Clippers Nación would like to believe.

If Baron is out of the equation, that leaves Chris Kaman as the lone piece who could make it work. Enter hurdle number three. Do the Nuggets really want or even need Kaman? Kenyon Martin’s gargantuan contract expires next year so there is an empty hole in the Nuggets frontcourt rotation. It’s debatable whether Nene and Kaman could co-exist but we’ll move past that for now. If the Nuggets are rebuilding, and trading Anthony would seem to indicate that they are, what good will Kaman and his contract do them? If their goal is to build around young and cheap talent (like Lawson and Afflalo) while maintaining cap flexibility and acquiring draft picks, Kaman helps them in neither area. Since Kaman alone doesn’t seem to do Denver a whole lot of good, again the Clippers would be looking at involving a third team, perhaps a team like Detroit or another team starved for a center. If the Clippers don’t involve a third team they would likely have to give up much more than just Kaman or just Baron to get the Nuggets to bite, most likely in the form of draft picks. The good news there is that the Clippers have a doozy of a draft pick in their pocket.

The Minnesota pick, which is top 10 protected this year and completely unprotected in 2012, looks like one of the most valuable draft picks around the league. Timberwolves GM David Kahn has put together an odd group in Minnesota and the prospects of that team getting out of the early lottery range in the next two years seem highly unlikely. That’s the gem Denver would likely look to acquire in all of this.

Is Carmelo Anthony worth that pick and the additional assets that would have to go with it? The snap reaction is probably yes, but there’s been a lot of smart basketball people pointing out that Carmelo isn’t nearly as elite as you would think. While the argument against Carmelo is a compelling one, there are periphereals that have to be considered. The Clippers have had two winning seasons in 27 years in Los Angeles. Carmelo Anthony has led the Nuggets to seven straight winning seasons and has never been part of a losing one. The Clippers have been to the playoffs four times since they’ve been in Los Angeles. Carmelo? Seven seasons played, seven playoff appearances. That should, despite his inefficient shooting and Twitter issues, count for something.

It makes sense that the Clippers would want a player like Anthony. For years and years they’ve had a giant hole at the small forward position. Since Elton Brand and Sam Cassell left, they’ve desperately needed a player who could bail the team out on the offensive end with timely buckets. And for even longer the Clippers haven’t had a marquee player, a face to market, a guy who can bring immediate relevancy to a franchise starved for it. Sure, there’s a good chance Blake Griffin might become that guy, but Carmelo already is.

Despite all the obvious hurdles, the union appears to make sense on paper. Of course, the reputation a player carries isn’t nearly as important as his actual on court performance, and that’s something we’ll dig into in detail later this week.

Some New Threads for The Clips

Posted by D.J. Foster On August - 16 - 2010

Do people still say threads? No? Oh. Well let’s just move on.

The basic motif remains the same, though there are some new stylistic flourishes. “Los Angeles” will appear on the primary red away jersey, which used to have “Clippers” in script.

In another change, Baron Davis is going back to No. 5 this season.

Of course, the unveiling couldn’t be complete without Blake interviewing DeAndre on his thoughts on the new uniforms. Here’s the video, courtesy of Clippers.com:

Let’s hear it in the comments section: What do you think about the new jerseys? I’d tell you how I feel, but I’m the one asking the questions.

At Long Last, Blake Griffin

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On August - 12 - 2010

ESPN.com’s panel of 93 NBA prognosticators was asked…

Which returning or new player are you most eager to see?

The correct answer in this guard-driven league is John Wall? Or maybe marquee veteran players like Yao Ming or Gilbert Arenas?  Or a curio like DeMarcus Cousins?

None of the above:

Griffin hasn’t logged a single regular-season minute as an NBA player, but there are things he knows that rookies like John Wall can’t possibly understand yet.

Griffin has seen the hype machine up close, that stream of gratification that accompanies a No. 1 overall pick. It’s a phenomenon that’s both flattering and, at the same time, bizarre. In Griffin’s worldview, praise should be reserved for accomplishment, not expectation. Yet before he ever put on a Los Angeles Clippers jersey, Griffin was already regarded as the franchise’s savior. When he finally wore that uniform at 2009 summer league in Las Vegas, Griffin fed that machine even more, averaging 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds in 34.6 minutes per game.

He’s also endured the monotony of the NBA routine that catches many rookies by surprise. The rookie wall is as much a mental effect as it is a physical symptom. For Griffin, it was both. In the Clippers’ final preseason game last October, Griffin unleashed a thunderous dunk that fractured his left patella. He immediately began a grueling treatment and rehab regimen that he conformed to faithfully and with precision.

Last winter, Griffin described that process as tunneling his way out of jail. “It’s killing me,” Griffin said back then. “But it’s good that it’s killing me.”

For Griffin, the physical component of the rehab wasn’t the hard part. It was the isolation that accompanied the daily grind. While teammates were practicing and running drills, Griffin was confined to the treatment room or away visiting a specialist. Griffin was still a presence at the Clippers’ training facility Playa Vista, but a more peripheral one than he wanted to be. When word came down in January that despite his diligence he’d miss the remainder of the season, Griffin was crushed.

Even though he was in street clothes behind the Clippers’ bench last season, Griffin had a front-row seat for the league’s daily tedium and, at times, his team’s turmoil.

“I couldn’t play, but I could watch and I think that’s important,” Griffin said. “I’ve seen the game plan and I think that gives me a little bit of an advantage.”

Griffin watched the Clippers flirt with success, only to see things veer off course. He was there when former Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy and point guard Baron Davis jawed on the sideline. Griffin studied the measured leadership of the locker room’s elder statesman, Marcus Camby, only to witness Camby being shipped off to Portland after the Clippers’ season disintegrated. Griffin has fulfilled his rookie hazing abuse. The days of wearing a pink knapsack and schlepping donuts for the vets are over.

All that’s left now is the playing.

“I was talking to Coach [Vinny] Del Negro, and the first thing he said was, ‘I don’t look at you as a rookie. You’ve gone through this,’” Griffin said. “That’s the mindset I have. I’m not going into this like it’s my first year. But at the same time, I have to prove to everyone I can play.”

That’s the challenge ahead for Griffin: He has all the responsibilities and expectations that come with being a veteran, without any of the professional on-court experience. Last season was supposed to be the consummation of his young lifetime of work, but it spiraled into an exercise of managing frustration. This season, Griffin arrives as a mystery guest. Some of those eager to see him play, particularly in Clipper Nación, have visions of Amare Stoudemire with rebounding and defense. Others might be rubberneckers, skeptics who see Sam Bowie and Greg Oden under the cloud of the Clippers’ history.

But the person most eager to see Blake Griffin suit up and play NBA basketball?

That would be Blake Griffin.

“There’s been so much more fuel added to my fire,” Griffin said. “I’m even more excited than last year because things change when something is taken away from you.”

What the Del Negro Hire Means

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On July - 8 - 2010

It’s too early to discern whether Vinny Del Negro has the command, tactical strength and creativity to build the Clippers into a respectable entity in the Western Conference. My preferences for Dwane Casey aside, enough smart basketball people I’ve spoken to believe that, despite his early struggles in Chicago, Del Negro’s learning curve has been steep. They maintain that getting out from under a Chicago management team that undermined him at every turn — and let his best shooter walk in 2009, then dealt the other perimeter threat at last year’s deadline — will allow him to prosper. A good coach knows how to delegate and Del Negro’s preliminary short list of assistants is impressive. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical, but the beauty of sports is that these questions reveal themselves in due time.

The organization’s choice of Del Negro reveals some important realities that have little to do with Del Negro himself:

  • Owner Donald T. Sterling still makes the final call on many vital basketball decisions. It’s important to note that this isn’t unusual in the NBA and most pro sports for that matter. While Sterling might be uniquely ill-equipped to make many of these calls, he who signs the checks makes the rules. Still, it’s disconcerting that basketball people aren’t empowered to make the final basketball decisions. Tonight, LeBron James will likely announce that he’s chosen the Miami Heat as his destination. The allure of playing with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh can’t be understated, but it’s not incidental that if he lands in Miami, he’s chosen an owner in Micky Arison. Comparatively speaking, Arison is a hands-off owner who remains behind the scenes and delegates basketball operations to Pat Riley. Olshey, as a first-time general manager, hasn’t built up the equity and track record Riley has in his three decades as a championship head coach and executive. But Olshey has demonstrated early on that he’s aggressive, pragmatic and has good taste in talent. One source I spoke to about the Clippers power structure told me, “Neil has the potential to be very good at this job, but the question is, will ownership let him?”
  • As disheartening as ownership’s claiming the right to make the final call on the coaching hire, Olshey got his second choice out of dozens of available candidates. Del Negro wouldn’t have been named a finalist if Olshey weren’t confident he could perform the task. Part of the job for any Clippers general manager is negotiating with Sterling — on hires, trades and signings. It took Mike Dunleavy weeks to cajole Sterling into dealing Zach Randolph last summer.  Whether Olshey is given the authority he should to assemble the roster the way he sees fit will become apparent in the coming weeks. He conveys a very strong power of persuasion, more so than Dunleavy. On the flip side, Sterling has been generous with the checkbook in recent years and hasn’t seen much return on his investment, a dynamic that could potentially make him more reluctant to spend.
  • Presence and charisma trump whiteboard acumen, at least with many owners. The Del Negro hire also underscores the advantage former players still have when teams make choose coaches. Del Negro plugged his tenure as an NBA veteran in his press conference yesterday. For all of Casey’s attributes, Del Negro’s ability to regal someone like Sterling with stories of his playing days and to tout how that résumé item translates into respect in the locker room and on the practice court is powerful — probably a little bit too powerful.

As we head into Summer League, a few other realities are surfacing. The free agent market is insane. Mike Miller has a lot of appeal as a small forward, but he’s likely to command a five year deal in the $40 million dollar range, especially now that teams like New York have been left with enormous cap space and nobody to spend it on. The Clippers would be wise to resist the temptation to overspend and forfeit their flexibility, whether on Miller, Kyle Korver or anyone else.

A more likely scenario — and a smart one — would be to fill out the roster with decent value players. The list of available 3s won’t dazzle you, but the Clips could do a lot worse than a guy like Ryan Gomes, or even Dorell Wright, for a short-term contract while Al-Farouq Aminu finds his sea legs. Both Gomes and Wright are strong defenders on the wing and Gomes has developed a nice stroke from the outside (Wright has proficiency from mid-range).  Neither will vault the Clippers into playoff contention next season — and that might be frustrating to a hungry fan base — but both bring assets that would help the development process and not kill the Clippers’ cap flexibility.

Tayshaun Prince would be a plus at the small forward spot, but only if the Pistons are reasonable with their demands. Absorbing Prince’s $11.1 million salary would still leave the Clips with more than $7 million to fill out the roster with another combo guard (Randy Foye, Shannon Brown, Roger Mason). Again, these aren’t flashy names, but the primary goal remains developing the five young players. Baron Davis and Chris Kaman will claim a ton of possessions. The Clips need to allocate the remaining opportunities to Griffin, Gordon and, when they’re on the floor, Aminu and Bledsoe.

As disheartening as the summer might be, don’t undervalue the importance of the long view. Griffin could be a star. He and Gordon have enormous potential as an inside-out threat. Be patient, allow success to materialize in due course. Winning now isn’t realistic, so plan for 2011 and beyond.

Fourth of July Thoughts

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On July - 4 - 2010
  • Saturday was a busy day in Playa Vista. Sofo Schortsanitis was at the facility in the morning working out, then Mike Miller paid a three-hour visit.  Prototypically, Miller is precisely what the Clippers are looking for — a floor-spacing shooter who won’t kill them on the boards. He’s a guy who can assume the starting slot at the 3 while Al-Farouq Aminu develops, then move to bench as the Clips’ gunslinger at 32.

    Here’s the problem: The market has gone insane. In a world where Rudy Gay is a max player, where Amir Johnson can score a 5-year/$34 million deal and Darko Milicic is valued at 4 years and $20 million, a guy like Miller can command a big number — larger than the Clippers are comfortable committing to a middle-age SF whose skills are likely to fall off during the back end of his deal.
  • Will Sofo play for the Clippers this season? That all depends on what kind of cash the Clippers have left after the free agency season. They could slot him into the frontcourt rotation if the price is right, but probably aren’t prepared to allocate significant resources before they take care of more pressing needs on the wing.
  • Kyle Korver also fits the description of what the Clippers want on the wing, and sources say that the team will be reaching out to Korver’s camps in the coming days. Anthony Morrow is a less likely target because the maximum he can be offered under the Gilbert Arenas rule is a no greater than the mid-level exception. Morrow also falls into the “2 disguised as a 3″ pattern the Clippers are looking to end. A quick glimpse at the Warriors’ unit grid from 2009-10 shows that the Warriors were effective with Morrow at the 2, but abysmal when he played the 3.
  • What about Josh Childress? Unfortunately, he’s not a proficient shooter (low-30s from the shorter, international 3-point line). The Clippers are tired of teams sagging defensively on them. Baron Davis is statistically the worst high-volume, long-distance shooter in the game. Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman aren’t stretchy beyond 17-feet. That leaves Eric Gordon as the only threat from long range on the floor with that lineup. Childress is a smart, dogged defender and a nice energy guy, but he’s also a hot commodity right now who’s probably going to be overcompensated. The Clips don’t want to spend that kind of money on a player who doesn’t address their top need on the wing.
  • The Clippers won’t land LeBron James. They’ve received a steady stream of ridicule about being “honored” by the invitation to meet with James and the brevity of the one-hour meeting.  But the Clippers’ confab with James wasn’t about 2010 — it was about 2013. Few on earth have an inkling what James will decide over the next few days, but there’s a reasonable possibility that he opts for a 3-year deal with Cleveland. If that scenario prevails, this public spectacle will play out again in 2013.

    What if three years from now Blake Griffin is a rebounding, defending Amare Stoudemire, Eric Gordon boasts a true shooting percentage of 60 percent and the Clippers have progressed from a punch line to a viable young squad? With Baron Davis and Chris Kaman off the books, what if the Clippers are one of a select group of teams with room for two max players? If Friday’s meeting did nothing more than plant that seed, then it was worth a day’s commute by the brass from Los Angeles to Cleveland.

Blake Griffin on OKC Radio

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On July - 1 - 2010

ESPN Video

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