Friday, March 12, 2010

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

New Orleans 112, Clippers 84

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On November - 9 - 2009

Let’s start with a modest consolation if you’re someone who believes that this season is largely about the maturation and long-term assessments of the team’s talent:

How much do the Clippers miss Eric Gordon when he’s not suited up?

The answer to that question gives you just as strong an approximation of Eric’s value as the advanced stats we’ve been examining the last day or so that show Eric to be indispensable.

Although Eric’s absence is evident, the Clippers first lose control of the game in the first quarter when they give up seven bombs from beyond the arc to the Hornets.

What happens? Slow rotations? Bad defensive coverage in transition? Let’s take a look:

  • [1st, 9:25] Devin Brown/Right Corner: How much command does Chris Paul have over a defense? This will give you an idea. Paul pushes the ball up the left side, getting a quick screen from Emeka Okafor to his right that he passes up. He doesn’t need it because he leaves Baron in his tracks off the dribble, bursting into the paint in an instant. All five Clippers essentially collapse on him — including Rasual Butler who started at the help line (the edge of the right paint) and slid over upon Paul’s arrival. On the fly, Paul dishes to Devin Brown. 3PM.
  • [1st, 8:14] Devin Brown/Right Corner: The Hornets earn this one in transition. They get out ahead on a missed Baron Davis layup. Paul races it up the right side, and Brown beelines to his spot in the right corner. Where’s Butler? As the first non-big back, he has to pick up Paul on the ball.  Paul dishes it over to Brown. Both Butler and Al Thornton are late to close.
  • [1st, 7:37] Peja Stojackovic/Left Side: The very next possession, the Hornets run a flex set. It doesn’t take much for Peja Stojakovic to lose Thornton. Al seems a little surprised by how quickly Stojakovic is on the move. Peja rubs Thornton off David West as he crosses along the baseline from the near side to the far side. For good measure, Peja curls around Brown on the left side before landing behind the line. Paul kicks the ball over to Peja, who catches and shoots in stride.
  • [1st, 6:46] Peja Stojakovic/Left Side: After Thornton tumbles beneath the Clippers’ basket lurching for a rebound, the Hornets collect the ball and sprint up the court with numbers. The other four Clippers do a decent job of picking up their respective guy in transition. But Peja is the unaccounted for guy. He dashes to the left corner to receive the feed from Paul and drains the shot.
  • [1st, 6:09] Devin Brown/Left Corner: Another easy three points in transition. With Okafor ahead of the field headed straight for the front of the rim and Butler the only body back, Butler gets between Okafor and the basket — only that leaves Brown to zip over to the left corner unaccounted for. Paul slings a skip pass from the right sideline to the left corner. Bingo.
  • [1st, 4:16] Chris Paul/Left Wing: Three more in transition. This time Brown pushes the ball up. Again, the majority of the Clippers are quick on the backpedal. Baron is too, only he’s drifting back down the center of the court, not really accounting for Paul’s whereabouts. Paul pulls up beyond the arc and waits there, where he receives the kickout from a driving Brown. 3PM.
  • [1st, 3:13] Devin Brown/Top Right: The Hornets generate this look out of a timeout in the half-court.  With David West holding it up top on the left side, Stojakovic breaks from the right side, using a rub in the middle of the lane from Devin Brown. The Clippers respond to it well and switch. Butler now has Stojakovic while Ricky Davis, who was on Peja initially, stays with Brown … at least momentarily. Brown backs out to the area beyond hte arc. Meanwhile Ricky drifts low and left. Why? I have no idea. Peja is faced up against Butler on the left side.  Even if Peja puts it on the deck and drives right, Marcus Camby is there. Theoretically, I suppose Ricky could help, but wouldn’t he rather stay home on the guy who’s already hit three 3-pointers? Ricky does neither. The funny thing is that Peja actually does what we wouldn’t expect him to do — he opts for the dribble-drive. But even though that’s what Ricky was presumably readying himself for, he’s actually late. Peja kicks it to Brown, who’s now all alone. Hornets by 10.

The Clips never make it a game, despite narrowing the lead to seven points. Once the defense adjusts, the offense begins to sputter. And it’s here where Gordon’s absence is truly missed.

Without Eric, the defense sags and the post guys never get the one-on-one matchups they want. Coming out of the half, the Hornets are particularly vicious collapsing on Kaman in the paint, at one point even doubling him off the ball down low. When entry passes go into Chris, he struggles to get the space he’s been able to procure for that jumper over the first seven games. New Orleans is simply all over him.

Both Baron and Chris need two shooters on the wing to perform at their full potential. Gordon and Butler stretch the defense, which allows both Baron and Chris to operate in the paint. Sometimes Baron posts his guy; sometimes it’s Chris starting in the post with the ball; sometimes they use the pick-and-roll together; sometimes Baron penetrates wtih a strong dribble-drive. Whatever the case, the defense can’t leave the wings, lest they risk giving Gordon or Butler an open look, provided Baron (almost always) or Chris (getting better) can make the kickout.

Without Gordon, the entire scheme changes.

This isn’t to pick on Thornton, but he just doesn’t demand attention at 23 feet. As Al’s defender, you can take side trips, so long as you know you can pick Al up at 15 feet if he gets the ball and slashes your way.  Until that time, you can offer help on anyone who ventures into the paint with the ball. That makes life more difficult for Baron and Chris.

Prior to tipoff, both Gordon and Dunleavy expressed resignation that this groin issue might keep Eric out of action more time than they’d like. There’s a danger with this kind of nagging injury of coming back too early, before the body is fully healed. Even though the Clippers are eager to build some momentum, the feeling is that the best long-term course of action would be to keep Gordon sidelined until the groin is 100 percent.

You can’t fault that reasoning, but it doesn’t make the situation any less frustrating.

New Orleans 104, Clippers 98

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On April - 2 - 2009

One number jumps out from the box score: The 24 turnovers. Squandering more than a quarter of possessions signifies a sloppy team– and by a fair measure, the Clippers are pretty sloppy tonight.  Somehow, though, this game stirs an earnest hope. Gutsy performance would be the rote characterization, but the feeling is more transporting than that — it’s witnessing an impression of a likable Clippers team, even if only for a couple of hours.

The Clips fail with honor. The vast majority of the turnovers are born of overambition, maybe a little carelessness, but not laziness. Even the errant passes look like plays that could potentially be executed in the future. When the Clippers were up 19 on Cleveland, you sensed it was because the Cavs were playing down to their level.  Tonight, the Clips repeatedly answer New Orleans at several junctures and come up short only when confronted with the unanswerable.

Take a look at the Clippers’ distribution of shot attempts:

Gordon — 19
Randolph — 18
Kaman — 12
Davis — 9
Jones — 8
Taylor — 8
Novak — 5 [in 9 minutes before being taken off due to injury]
Skinner — 3

Divvy up 82 shot attempts among those eight guys, and you’ll likely come up with a list that deviates very little from tonight’s distribution.

The most gratifying basketball is played during a two-minute stretch toward the end of the first half when the Clippers shave off the Hornets’ 39-32 lead with a 9-0 run:

  • [2nd, 5:13] The Clippers have Davis-Gordon-Novak-Randolph-Kaman on the floor against Paul-Daniels-Butler-Marks-Armstrong. The most favorable matchup for the Clips is an obvious one.  Off a cross-screen from Eric Gordon, Zach Randolph goes to work in the right post against Sean Marks. Ever notice how the good teams seem so decisive in their offenses?  It helps to have a Tim Duncan or a LeBron James.  But the good Detroit teams, D’Antoni’s Suns teams, even the 05-06 Clippers won a lot of games simply by recognizing and exploiting the best matchup on the floor.  Randolph is so good in isolation man-to-man against a slower defender, and once Baron quickly clears out to the weak side, there’s nobody to help Marks.  Randolph puts his left shoulder down, takes two hard left-handed dribbles toward the paint, rumbles into his jump stop, then muscles to the rim with a left-handed hook.  The basket and the foul.
  • [2nd, 5:07] Taylor is now in for Novak, so the Clips are very, very small [Davis-Taylor-Gordon all on the floor]. Off the successful Randolph FT, Chris Paul pushes it up, but the Clippers swiftly get back.  Once they reset, the Hornets want the Paul-West two-man game. First, West holds the ball up top while Paul tries a back cut, but Gordon does a good job of staying between the ball and Paul, so CP returns for a handoff.  West’s ability to patiently stand still while Paul lures both defenders to the backcourt side of West is brilliant.  West waits until Kaman and Gordon scamper to either side of him before he rolls to the side, where Paul hits him with a pass.  Randolph offers good weak side help, but it’s still not enough.  An open 22-foot jumper isn’t a bad shot for West, but here it falls halfway down before popping back up.  Kaman nabs the rebound and shovels the outlet to Gordon.
  • [2nd, 4:50] West now guards Randolph. He plays a little off Randolph which, given how Randolph just drove on Marks, makes a lot of sense.  This time, Randolph steps back and drains an 18-footer.
  • [2nd, 4:40] Any team that gives up 104 points in 95 possessions isn’t playing an efficient brand of defense, but here the Clippers do a competent job on the Daniels/West  S/R up top with Baron/Randolph.  With Kaman cheating to the ball side, Gordon is left on Sean Marks on the weak side block.  Daniels has used the action up top to get an angle for an entry pass to Marks.  The pass is at Marks’ feet — catchable, but nothing Marks can do much with.  Daniels is a ballplayer with average talents, but a good head.   He realizes that the only thing Marks can do with the slippery ball is tap a little bounce pass to a guy cutting down the lane.  Daniels decides to be that guy.  Marks delivers, Daniels picks the ball up in stride, but missses the layup.  Randolph secures the rebound and the gets the ball to Eric Gordon.
  • [2nd, 4:18] Gordon pushes it up.  He drives all the way from the backcourt into the gut of the lane, while Mike Taylor spots up on the right side.  As Gordon penetrates, he kicks the ball out to Taylor.  Earlier in the period, Taylor takes an impatient 23-footer at the beginning of the shot clock and misses.  This time, he uses the space in front of him for a drive.  As Taylor hits the paint, he’s met by a trap.  Taylor’s instinct here is good:  He sees that Randolph’s man, Marks, is the help, so he tries to get the ball to Zach by threading the pass through the two defenders.  The ball grazes Paul’s leg, which results in a turnover.

    There will come a day when Mike Taylor will execute that pass flawlessly. There’s no fault in his trying tonight.

  • [2nd, 4:10] Paul orchestrates the Hornets’ break. He’s got Daniels ahead of the pack and lobs a perfect bomb two-thirds the length of the floor that lands directly in Daniels’ hands. As Daniels elevates for a layup from the right side, Baron Davis flies in from behind and slaps the ball against the glass. A second earlier, Baron had tried to tip the pass, but fallen just short. He never gives up on the play. Chris Kaman grabs the loose ball at the foul line.
  • [2nd, 4:04] Kaman sees Randolph across half-court and fires an overhead pass to Zach just before the arc. Randolph has plenty of space — he also has Eric Gordon filling the far lane all by himself. Zach opts to launch the 3PA, which is wide right. It’s not a horrible shot, though Gordon has a much easier two. The ball clanks off the iron and bounces toward the left corner. Taylor squirts in front of Marks and, diving into the floor seats, saves the ball inbounds. Both Paul and Davis scamper toward it. I’m not sure there’s anyone as covetous of a loose ball in the NBA as Chris Paul, but on this play Baron Davis is every bit as ruthless. His swipe at the ball carries him into a sideline cameraman. Paul comes up with the rock, then glides into the lane with West on the left side of the glass. Paul dishes the ball to West, but the layup attempt is blocked by Kaman. Gordon hunts down the ball.
  • [2nd, 3:47] The ball works its way upcourt to Baron Davis up top on the left side against Rasual Butler. Davis uses a Kaman screen to his right to unleash a filthy crossover that gets Butler off-balance. Davis dribbles into the lane, then leaves the ball at the left elbow with a casual [doesn't rhyme with Rasual] no-look tip backward. Kaman picks it up seamlessly, takes one step, then lays it up and in.

    In the parallel universe where the Clippers are a healthy, yet enigmatic 41-34 club, this kind of stuff happens all the time.

  • [2nd, 3:22] After an off-ball foul by the Clippers that Chris Paul thinks are worth two foul shots, the Hornets get it on the side. Just as the ball comes inbounds, Paul gets whistled for a shove while he’s trying to get some space off Taylor. Clippers ball.
  • [2nd, 3:20] This is a play the Clippers run a lot. [I believe it's called 45] It’s usually Baron at the point, but on this set it’s Mike Taylor with the ball, while Baron is on the weak side as the 3 [largely out of the play]. After passing the ball to Gordon on his right, the PG [Taylor] cuts low. He’ll set a screen to free up Randolph off the right block. Gordon then delivers an entry pass into Randolph at his spot. Gordon’s man [Julian Wright] immediately leaves to double low on Randolph. Zach does a great job of anticipating, and returns the ball back to Gordon. Wright tries to recover and Eric thinks about launching it from 23, but instead leverages Wright’s unsteadiness and blow by him en route to the goal for a vicious slam.

    How does he get a clear path? Kaman does a nice job screening the basket area so West can’t help.

Normally, the last 2:20 would warrant a close examination, but Chris Paul doesn’t mastermind this win as much as he wills it. When the Clippers trap him against the baseline [4th, 2:05], he hits his first cutter through the defenders. When the Clippers show and recover to perfection on the first three screens of a set [4th, 1:28], Paul settles for a step-back, off-balanced 20-footer that he drains with :04 seconds remaining on the shot clock and Baron in his face [4th, 1:20]. When the Clippers try to trap him to the left of the screen [4th, 0:36], Paul dices through the defenders with ease, then dashes to the hole and sinks the floater. It’s indefensible, particularly with no shot blocker at the rim.

The final two minutes are deflating, but the sum total of the night, most notably that the Clippers have designs to play good basketball, offers some nourishment.

New Orleans 99, Clippers 87

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On November - 24 - 2008

Even though the Clips can’t get the Hornets’ lead down to much closer than five points for most of the second half, this isn’t a painful game to watch.  Most of the Clippers’ problems stem from their inability to finish around the basket.  Mike Taylor misses three FGAs from 0 feet; Baron Davis misses three; Al Thornton misses two; Eric Gordon misses two; Chris Kaman misses two; Brian Skinner misses one; Marcus Camby misses one.  That’s 14 missed FGAs from 0 feet.  What does that mean?  The Clippers are working themselves a bunch of easy shots…and the Clippers need to relax a little.  What’s that Woodenism?  “Be quick, but don’t hurry.”

In contrast, New Orleans hits some impossible shots — ungodly fallaway jumpers from David West, crazy off-balanced runners from Peja Stojakovic.  The whirling dervishings of Chris Paul [I'm introducing dervishing as a neologism solely for the purpose of describing Chris Paul].  Objectively, is there anyone you’d rather watch play basketball than Chris Paul c. 2008?

So despite New Orleans’ 49% night from the field, the Clippers’ defensive effort is something more akin to a 44% effort from the floor by an opponent. The Clips give up very little early offense, defend the S/R pretty skillfully, and force the Hornets into some difficult shots.

What hurts the Clippers the most on the defensive end tonight is David West against Marcus Camby.  After missing his first FGA of the third quarter, he nails five shots in a row from the field.  At [3rd, 7;13], he easily beats Camby on a simple right-handed dribble drive from about 10 feet that he finishes with an easy reverse layup. About a minute and a half later at [3rd, 5:52], West takes advantage of an aggressive Camby close-out on his shot fake by breezing past him with a hard left-handed dribble-drive through the lane. He punctuates the finish with a vicious slam.  A minute later at [3rd, 4:49], West hesitates against Camby at the foul line, but then bursts ahead with hard dribble with his left.  West then transfers the ball to his right for a Vince Carter-like layup off the glass. At [3rd, 3:08] West and Paul work the side screen-roll to perfection off the left elbow.  It’s pretty:  Earlier in the set, Paul gets a rock-solid screen at the top of the circle from Tyson Chandler, which nets Paul Al Thornton off the switch.  On the West S/R, Thornton and Camby double up on Paul as he explodes into the lane.  If you’re Thornton, you have to take West on the switch here.  Paul is dangerous, but Kaman is stepping up to challenge, and David West is too dangerous and too hot to leave him.  But that’s what happens.  How many wide open shots from 12 feet does David West miss in a month?  Finally at [3rd, 0:53], he steps back off Chris Kaman at the right elbow and drains a 15-footer.

Eric Gordon has his best night as a professional.  9-18 from the floor, 4-8 from beyond the arc, 3-4 from the line, 4 steals, a couple of turns.  He gets his first two 3PMs of the night within the span of a minute in the 2nd quarter.  Both come from Chris Kaman, who passes out of double-teams to find Gordon on the arc.  In general, Chris is becoming much better at passing out of the double-team.  He’s no Tim Duncan by any stretch, but he’s developed a certain level of proficiency.

What I like even more from Eric than those two open three-point shots is what he does at [2nd, 2:54].  This time, he’s covered tightly by Stojakovic on the arc.  Instead of heaving up a contested shot, he holds the ball, then takes a little jab step to get Peja a little bit off-balanced. This allows EJ to take a dribble into about 19 and, with enough separation, get off a quick-release jumper that falls through.  Grown-up move.  He makes a similar decision a couple minutes later in the closing minute of the half [2nd, 0:35].  On an inbound play underneath the Clippers’ basket, EJ curls around the top of the circle to get free in the left corner.  Posey trails him.  He manages to catch up to Gordon, but Posey’s momentum is enough that Gordon decides to hold off on the shot long enough to take a little left-handed dribble to his right to get himself more space.  He gets that open look from 19 feet, and sinks it.  Patience as a shooter pays off.  It’s the difference between a 35-40% night and a 50% night.

Tonight represents the top of EJ’s range as a player right now, so there’s a temptation to paint the performance with warm colors.  That being the case, I think Dunleavy’s best move is to leave him out there for 30+ minutes a night.  He’ll likely develop a steep learning curve on the defensive end.  Though there might be nights he kills you offensively, it’s better to take the hits now at 2-12.

Not like any other reasonable candidates exist to claim those minutes.

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