This is an exciting time for those trying to find new and compelling ways to understand basketball through analytical means.  The sphere of advanced statistical analytics is experiencing a golden era, and I was fortunate enough to be at ground zero this past weekend — the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  Some of the smartest people in the NBA world gathered in Cambridge to exchange ideas and pose larger questions about what we can — and in some cases, can’t — learn about the pro game from advanced data.

One of the things that continues to challenge people who work with this information is how to integrate individual data into a team game.  If you’re a fan who grew up on Bill James Baseball Abstracts, then you have a fair understanding that baseball, at its essence, is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, which makes it much easier to illuminate many of these questions.  You can rationally measure how many runs a lineup with nine Dustin Pedroias would generate in 162 games vs. a lineup of nine Hanley Ramirezes, but basketball is a much tougher proposition.  You could, theoretically, compare the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of a team composed of five Chris Pauls vs. a team of five Yao Mings — and we have smart guys like Kevin Pelton on the case — but it wouldn’t produce results that are terribly useful in comparing the two players’ relative values.  That’s because a direct statistical contrast between two individuals is a much trickier exercise in basketball.

Aside from determining how certain players are undervalued, what are some of the practical utilities for all this cool new data?  One answer I heard repeatedly from the panelists and in conversations is applying this information to measure the performance of 5-man units.  A couple of different stat guys told me that, for one, information about 5-man units can be imparted to coaches in a palatable way.  An ornery coach might not want to hear from some data-cruncher that he needs to run fewer isolations sets for Player A out on the wing, but that same coach will likely be much more receptive to a few simple numbers that show he’s got a 5-man unit that’s killing the competition.

The Clippers are a tough nut to crack on a lot of this stuff because they haven’t been able to run consistent lineups out on the floor.  The Clips have exactly one 5-man unit that’s shared the floor for more than 116 minutes this season: Baron-Gordon-Thornton-Randolph-Camby.  That unit is a shade below average, with an adjusted +/- of -0.15, and an overall rating per 100 possessions of -2.17, which is a bit crummier.

Among the Clippers’ 5-man units that have played together for a measurable number of minutes, the best is Baron-Gordon-Collins-Randolph-Camby.  In 84 possessions [about 46 minutes of basketball], this unit has outscored its opponents 98-72. Keep in mind that the standard error in such a small sample is pretty massive (Aaron Barzilai will tell you as much), and the majority of these data come from two games — the recent win over Boston and the December 12 Portland game.   That being the case, these results support the notion that if you swap out Al Thornton for Mardy Collins on the wing, you get a substantially more efficient performance.

Naturally, the Clippers can’t capitalize on this information right now even if they wanted to, because Marcus Camby is suffering from head fluid, which sounds really unpleasant.  But in thinking about how the Clippers might want to deal with LeBron James tonight, it’s hard to imagine throwing Al Thornton out there to guard him.  I’m no fan of Mardy Collins’ inefficient offensive game. He displays a horrible habit of  amplifying those inefficiencies by attempting far too many shots, a condition his coach needs to manage more vigilantly.  That aside, the data show that on both an individual and team basis, Collins is considerably more useful than Al Thornton, who is the team’s least efficient regular, when placed alongside the Clippers’ other three primary scorers — Randolph, Gordon, and Baron Davis.

In some respects, this conversation evokes the debates of 2005-2006, when Corey Maggette and Quinton Ross were competing for playing time at the small forward position.  Maggette was by every metric the more prolific offensive player, but there was enough data to suggest that the team played a more efficient game defensively when Ross was the SF alongside Cassell-Mobley-Brand-Kaman.  The truth was that both Ross and Maggette had glaring deficiencies, but the ensuing discussion was one of the more interesting of its day for Clippers fans, with reasonable arguments on both sides.

Obviously, Thornton’s starting role hasn’t really been challenged by Collins, but in thinking about LeBron tonight…shouldn’t it be?  If you had told me on Christmas Day that the matter of Collins v. Thornton would ever be a topic of earnest consideration, I would’ve eaten my hat, but among the dastardly number of issues that the Clippers are dealing with, the Al Thornton question stands out prominently.  While I don’t support Al’s public humiliation by a tactless owner going off half-cocked, his role on the team needs to be examined more closely, particularly on a night when his team requires someone at the 3 who has some degree of defensive intuition. Again, Mardy Collins is not the long-term solution for the Clippers at the 3 — far from it — but most nights, he’s the better of two undesirable options.

Corey travels six times in a single play [hat tip: Henry]:

Building on the Chris Mannix report that “the Warriors are already regretting signing Maggette to a five-year, $50 million deal last offseason,” Art Thompson III shares some impressions from his years covering the Clips:

Clippers center Chris Kaman said the half-court offense often would get stagnant because Maggette would simply try to barge through defenders to get to the rim…

My sources told me that fomer [sic] Clipper forward Elton Brand was so determined not to have a personal friendship ruined with Maggette (the two have been close since they attended Duke together), that Brand did not want to play another year with Maggette, having decided that seven years with the Clippers was enough.

Regarding the Warriors’ reported regret over bringing Corey in, McFruity on Hoops gets it right:  Corey Maggette is precisely the same player today that he was in Los Angeles — an efficient, albeit single-dimensional, scorer.  The notion that anyone should be surprised, alarmed, outraged, or disappointed that Corey Maggette won’t hit a cutter, pass out on a drive, or generally do anything in the halfcourt that makes his teammates better, is absurd.

I harbor no real regrets that the Clippers and Corey Maggette parted ways, but for better or worse, there’s no other player in the Association whose development as a pro we’ve watched more closely over the past decade.  Corey’s game is flawed – and those shortcomings have been documented extensively here and elsewhere – but he’s still an interesting player from an observational standpoint. I’ve always been ambivalent about Corey.  His game has this comforting efficiency that I really admire,  but in the end, I guess I instinctively prefer players who are a little more cerebral.  That’s probably unfair.  And even though I think the Clippers are better longterm without him, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t miss him a little.

Since we’re playing the Warriors tomorrow afternoon, I thought it might be interesting to see how Corey is fitting in up in Oakland.  Has Don Nelson asked him to adjust his settings?  How has the system up there influenced his game?  Just a little curious, that’s all.

It’s important to note that Corey has been suffering from a bad hammie.  Last night is his first game since November 3, and he plays only 28 minutes.   Because Don Nelson recruits his roster from a carnival job fair, Corey is assigned to guard Rasheed Wallace at the outset, even though he gives up five inches to the Detroit big man:

• [1st, 11:42]  The Pistons don’t waste any time exploiting the Sheed-Corey mismatch.  Wallace gets good position just off the left block.   He backs Corey in, spins baseline and elevates an easy jumper over Corey.
• [1st, 11:07]  Corey tries valiantly to get between Wallace and the ball, but ends up fouling Wallace.  No shots.
• [1st, 10:05]  The Warriors push the ball up after a Detroit bucket.  CJ Watson gets it ahead to Corey in the open court.  As Corey races upcourt, Wallace gambles unsuccessfully, and now Corey barrels straight to the basket — but he loses the handle as he crosses into the paint.  Turnover.
• [1st, 9:07]  Corey is doing yeoman’s work on Wallace.  It isn’t easy.  But he’s doing a good enough job to force Rip Hamilton to overthrow the entry pass into Wallace.  Andris Biedrins steals the ball.  Give Corey a defensive assist.
• [1st, 8:40] On a Hamilton/Wallace S/R, Corey does a very nice job showing off the screen.  It forces Hamilton to step back and fire an off-balanced jumper.

On most of Golden State’s halfcourt possessions, you’ll find Corey Maggette in a very familar spot — loitering along the arc out on the wing.   With no real post threat other than Biedrins, there’s a lot to space to work with, but Corey — as he often did in Los Angeles — doesn’t do much to fill it.

• [1st, 8:02]  In a slow-it-down halfcourt set, Corey gets the ball up high against Rasheed Wallace.  He holds the ball.  Iverson is cheating over just a little and has his eye on Corey, knowing that Corey prefers to go right.   That’s exactly what Corey does.  Iverson sticks his hand in for a strip.  Wallace isn’t as quick as Corey, but does an effective job at funneling Corey toward the help — Tayshaun Prince.  Prince challenges Corey at the rim, forcing him to throw up a wild layup attempt that isn’t close.

That’s where Detroit is so effective defensively.  In recent years, they’ve never been that quick of a team; it’s just that they know exactly how to manipulate the action so that the help always arrives where and when it should.  The Spurs also do this well.

• [1st, 6:40]  Wallace wants the ball again against Corey.  He gets it.  Corey bodies up nicely. Wallace spins baseline, gets the look he wants — he towers over Corey — but Biedrins is there to help, and Wallace misses the shot.   The Pistons retain possession, and on the reset, Iverson gets Corey on a defensive switch.  Corey has been an adequate on-ball defender most of his career.  Here, he manages to stay in front of Iverson, who takes a 15-foot jumper that’s a little bit long.
• [1st, 5:37]  Detroit’s rotation falls apart, and Corey is left with a wide, wide open 3PA up top, but misses the shot.
• [1st, 5:16]  A baseline drive by Iverson scrambles the Golden State defense.  Wallace has drifted high, where he sets up at the top of the arc.  Corey is distracted by all the action in the left corner, where Hamilton has the ball.  Rip sees this and fires a pass to Wallace.  Corey is too late and Wallace drains the 3PA.
• [1st, 4:36]  The Prince/Wallace S/R on the left side leaves Maggette on Prince off the switch.  Stephen Jackson picks up Wallace, whose 13-footer is no good.  This is probably the smarter defensive matchup for GSW, and I’m not sure why Nelson chooses otherwise.
• [1st, 3:24]  Corey gets the ball on the right side against Wallace in an iso set.  He puts his head down, and drives right along the baseline.  Tayshaun Prince had been covering Jackson at the top of the circle.  When Corey begins his drive, Prince slides down.  This leaves Jackson free to dive through the lane toward the hoop.  Corey makes a pretty pass around Wallace that finds Jackson at the basket for the slam.   Beautiful look from Corey.  How many times in Los Angeles did he hit a cutter off his drive?  Nice work.

In general, Corey plays Wallace much tighter away from the basket as the quarter progresses.  Wallace never sees another shot in the period.  When Corey returns with about 3:00 in the 2nd quarter, he mistakenly doubles Hamilton at 20 feet off a screen, leaving Wallace alone for a 21-footer that falls.  Corey gets his first FTAs of the night at [2nd, 0:42] when Detroit gets crossed up on their S/R defense, allowing Corey a path through the lane.   Amir Johnson steps in, and Corey throws his body into Johnson’s, earning a trip to the line.

The second half will look a lot more familiar to Clipper fans.  Of Golden State’s first nine possessions of the second half, Corey gets FTAs on five of them, and another transition possession yields a Corey 15-foot jumper.  Here are the possessions that yield Corey’s five trips to the stripe:

• [3rd, 11:46]  You know it well — Corey curls from the left corner, receives the ball from Watson, and slashes through the lane, drawing contact from Kwame Brown.   He sinks both FTAs.
• [3rd, 9:29] Corey likes his matchup: It’s Walter Herrmann, and you can see Corey licking his chops as he holds the ball on the left wing.  He takes a hard dribble with his left, gets a good first step on Herrmann, who doesn’t stand a chance.  As Herrmann hacks Corey 12 feet out, Corey hurls the ball toward the hoop, earning two FTAs.  He hits both and GSW, who led by seven at the half, extends its lead to 12.
• [3rd, 7:58] Classic transition Corey:  He skies for the rebound at the defensive end, weaves his way upcourt, finds the most vulnerable defender — Herrmann again — barrels into him, heaves the ball at the basket, and earns two more FTAs.  He sinks both.
• [3rd, 7:35]  The Warriors might be reckless, but they aren’t stupid.  The ball goes back into Corey against Herrmann just off the right elbow.  Corey backs him in, then kicks the ball back out to Watson, who promptly returns it to Corey a few feet deeper.  Herrmann hacks him.  It’s the 4th team foul at 7:31, and Herrmann’s 3rd personal.  Michael Curry has seen enough, and yanks Herrmann.   Off the inbound, it goes back to Corey on the right side, this time against Rip Hamilton.   Corey backs him in, spins baseline, and draws the shooting foul against Hamilton.  Corey sinks 1 of 2.
• [3rd, 6:56] Right back to Maggette, who has been the focal point of the offense.  This time he’s up against Arron Afflalo.  Corey backs him in, turns, draws contact, and sinks one of two from the line.

Afflalo gets his revenge on Corey about a minute later, when Corey fails to box him out off a Detroit miss.  Afflalo collects the OR, steps back and nails a 3PM.  For whatever reason, the Warriors go away from the Maggette toward the end of the period, though it’s not like Detroit makes a profound adjustment or anything.  Corey carelessly coughs up the ball at [3rd, 2:53], which lets Afflalo loose on a fast break for an easy two and the foul.

Corey enters the game at [4th, 5:50] with his team leading by one.   He takes two shots down the stretch, missing both:

• [4th, 2:47]  Corey brings the ball up and holds it, as all four of his Warrior teammates clear the right side for him.  Corey is being covered by Tayshaun Prince.  Corey lowers his head and takes a hard dribble with his right.  Prince stands his ground, forcing Corey against the baseline.  Corey spins back left, elevates for an awkward running 5-footer, hoping to draw contact.   In Corey’s defense, he doesn’t have a lot of options.  Azebuke is immediately picked up by Hamilton as he dives for the basket.
• [4th, 1:55]  The Warriors are down by three.  The ball goes into Corey at the same spot on the right wing against Prince.  Again, the Warriors clear out, and again Corey drives right, and again Prince holds his ground.  Corey elevates — this time about 10 feet out — launches an awkward jumper on the way down that misses badly.    A better decision: Drive left, draw Jackson’s man [Afflalo] low, and hit Jackson on the perimeter for an open shot.

Corey finishes with 13 points in 28 minutes on 2-7 FG, 9-12 FT.  His function in the Warriors’ offense is remarkably similar to his role in Los Angeles.  Because Nelson likes to run, Corey will get a few more transition opportunities than he did as a Clipper.  And because Nelson likes to field a small lineup, Corey will often be saddled with the added responsibility of having to defend post sets against guys much taller than him.

Tomorrow should be interesting.