Time is winding down on the clock. The Clippers have the last shot. What do they do?

Usually, and it’s this way with most teams, the answer is a 1-4 isolation — your basic clearout for a guard at the top of the key. There are a few reasons why this is so popular in the NBA.

If you run a high pick-and-roll, the chances that screen is hedged or trapped are extremely high. A trap increases the chances of a turnover, which is the last thing you want in that situation. Another reason you don’t run a ballscreen is because you it gives up the control of who will end up with the last look. In an isolation, you’re trusting your best player to beat his man and score, and if the defense wants to help or double-team, they’ll have to leave someone truly wide open.

It’s interesting that after running complicated sets with lots of movement during the game, most coaches will go to something you can see in your local pickup game in the final possession. Give it to the best player, and get the heck out of the way.

For the most part, that strategy worked out well for the Clippers last season, in large part because Eric Gordon was nails in the clutch. In the last five minutes of games within five points, Gordon shot 55 percent from the field, 53 percent from 3-point land, and 93 percent from the free-throw line. Those are great numbers, hindered only by the way Gordon would dribble off his own foot and turn over the ball (6.2 turnovers per 48-minutes according to 82games.com).

Although they provide some value, individual clutch statistics can vary wildly because of the small sample size (about 150 minutes). If a guy has a few bad shooting nights down the stretch, that can really submarine his clutch numbers.

To really get a good sense of things, it’s important to look at team clutch statistics over an extended timeframe.

When you do that, there is no one in the league even close to Chris Paul’s former team, the New Orleans Hornets.

With Paul at the helm the Hornets became a drastically better team in crunch time situations.

Hornets’ efficiency, since 2005-06

Here’s more great stuff from John Schuhmann at NBA.com on the Hornets’ total efficiency numbers at the end of any quarter. Note that the only team better than Paul’s Hornets was Gregg Popovich’s Spurs — a coach renowned for running actual sets in late clock situations, not just isolations.

Best teams, final 3 minutes of quarters (any score), since 2005-06

More specifically, here’s Henry Abbott at TrueHoop.com explaining just how good the Hornets have been in those late clock, last possession type situations:

“Over the last five years, in the final 24 seconds of games his team trailed by a point or two, or were tied, the Hornets have scored 102 points on 86 possessions (as of a few weeks ago). That’s an offensive rating of more than 118 points per 100 possession.

Remember that number. 118.

Now, consider that most of the NBA is below 85, and 27 teams are below 100. That’s a blowout.”

 

The Clippers, obviously, are in great hands with Chris Paul at the end of games. And if they have a big lead? Even better. Billups, Paul, Foye and Williams all shot over 88 percent from the free-throw line last season.

We’ve seen it happen to the Clippers plenty of times before. They hang around for 43 minutes, then lose out in the last five. Good teams know when to step on the gas.

Guess what? With Paul running the show, the Clippers are now one of those teams.

The Clippers made some big moves yesterday by claiming Chauncey Billups and resigning DeAndre Jordan. We’ll be breaking down Chauncey’s game shortly, but for now check out what everyone else is saying about the moves:

• ESPN’s John Hollinger rating the Chauncey Billups pickup (Insider): “Billups is big enough to play off the ball with Williams at times, and with Eric Bledsoe injured for the opening weeks of the season it was crucial for L.A. to get a backup point guard. With this move, the Clips have set themselves up to make a playoff push, even if Chris Paul never comes their way.”

• Steve Perrin over at Clips Nation analyzes the Chauncey Billups deal: “The Clippers were very interested in adding Tayshaun Prince to their roster this summer for his playoff experience – now they’ve gotten the team leader from Prince’s Pistons. That’s a big win. Of course, it all depends on Billups attitude about the situation – especially since the Clippers are doing this in large part for Billups’ leadership. They’re counting on Billups’ professionalism, plus the promise of a very talented roster, to bring out the best in him.”
• The Chris Paul talks are back on. Not too much of a surprise here, even though the Clippers will say publicly that they’re moving on and ready to go with the roster they have. The fact of the matter is that Stern’s henchmen will have to backdown from demanding the Clippers five best trade assets. At this point, with Billups on board, it doesn’t seem likely the Clippers would forfeit the Minnesota pick and Eric Gordon in trade.
• Vinny Del Negro defends the DeAndre Jordan’s new four-year, $43-million dollar contract to Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLA.com: ” ‘The expectations are so high at those type of numbers, but if you really know the game and understand that DeAndre brings a defensive presence for us. Shot-blocking, he runs the court well,’ Del Negro said. ‘He’s very young still, he’s only going to get better. Blake and him play off each other well. He brings you an athletic, big dynamic that we’re fortunate to have.’ “
• Maybe the best move the Clippers made yesterday was the one they didn’t. Here’s Sebastian Pruiti taking a look at how Eric Gordon can become a superstar in one of his patented visual breakdowns: “Last year, we saw Gordon take a step in the right direction. He became a very good ball handler and decision-maker when coming off screens, and he became a spot-up shooting threat. However, if he wants to continue to develop, he must learn to play effectively off the ball.”

The worst thing for a team to be in professional sports is mediocre. In the NBA, perennially landing in the late lottery is the kiss of death. You’re not contending, you’re not rebuilding towards something better – you’re just there. Barring a miracle, your fate is all but pre-determined when you frequently occupy the late lottery.

I’m a huge proponent of rebuilding in general, mainly because a good player on a rookie contract is the best value in the game. Going through the actual process of rebuilding, however, is not for those without Sam Cassell sized onions. As a General Manager, there’s much less risk involved if you hang around .500 and sell your fans on a mid-level signing that will “push you over the top.” Get rid of all your old, familiar talent and lose 60 games in the process, and all of the sudden it’s tough to sell anyone on anything – including the owner on letting you stick around. Rebuilding can most certainly pay off in the long run, but the person doing it doesn’t always get to see it to fruition.

Yes, about that big.

And wouldn’t you know it? Even uttering the word “rebuilding” has suddenly become a serious no-no around Clippers headquarters. Neil Olshey has been pretty adamant over the offseason that the Clippers are completely finished with their rebuilding process, and that the time to win is most definitely now. Saying “we’re ready to win!” publicly is always a good idea, but it’s important to note that the old themes of building, developing, and all those other code words for “we’re going to suck in order to get better” have been tossed aside for the time being. What’s that mean on the court? That long leash the rookies got last season? Shorter. Much shorter.

With DeAndre Jordan’s contract expired, Eric Gordon’s coming up, and Blake Griffin’s further down the line, Olshey realizes that it’s time for the Clippers to make a run and make it as difficult as possible for his core guys to dash elsewhere. Olshey, like everyone else, doesn’t know what the next CBA will hold, and whether or not keeping his current players will become easier or tougher in the process. For now, he has to assume that fielding a winning team is the greatest retaining – and recruiting – method available to him.

And so when DeAndre Jordan eventually gets an offer sheet that makes everyone’s eyebrows rise as if they were The Rock, Olshey really has no option but to match. Whatever the number — 8, 9, 10 million a year — Olshey has to do it. Even if he doesn’t think Jordan is actually worth it, he has to do it.

Not signing Jordan would leave the Clippers with no center under contract in 2012-13. Not signing Jordan probably pisses off the one guy in the organization you can’t afford to piss off in Blake Griffin. Not signing Jordan wastes all the valuable hours spent developing him into a pretty good starting center.

Olshey simply has to match whatever offer crosses his desk, because he knows he can’t afford to take a step back at this point in the game. The clock is already ticking. Put Eric Gordon through another 25-win season and there’s no way he accepts an extension. Think about it. You really don’t think some team will throw all their cash at a 23-year old shooting guard who will already be able to legitimately lay claim to being a top 5 player at his position? And on that same token, do you think Gordon doesn’t forfeit a few million for the time being to get out from being the second banana on a losing team for a chance to sign a max deal elsewhere?

Olshey has options, but they’re fake options. Letting Jordan walk could potentially start a chain reaction he has no interest in seeing. Maybe if Gordon and Griffin weren’t such strong considerations and maybe if the Clippers weren’t the Clippers, you could let DeAndre walk and use the upcoming Minnesota pick on what’s shaping up to be one of the best big man classes in a long time. You can have DeAndre Jordan for 9 million a year…or maybe a potential future star like Anthony Davis or Andre Drummond on a rookie deal. But again, Olshey can’t afford to even consider that because of the ripple effect on the rest of the roster and the message it would send.

Anthony Davis: A tantalizing talent.

Don’t think for a second that other general managers around the league aren’t aware of the pickle that Olshey is in. A smart Western Conference team with money and a hole in the middle can make a huge offer and in a way, sort of call Olshey’s bluff. If the Clippers balk, that team gets a young starting center with gobs of athletic potential. If the Clippers match, they’re all-in with a guy that at this point is less than a sure thing.

This upcoming season – whenever it’s played – can be viewed as one of the most important in Clippers history. DeAndre Jordan is getting paid. Eric Gordon desperately craves to play for a winner. And Blake Griffin needs to know that a franchise with a history like the Clippers have is willing to do whatever it takes to compete.

The plan seems simple: Match DeAndre, go get a veteran small forward, and do your best to sneak into the playoffs while convincing Gordon to extend in the process.

It’s a firm step towards contending, but something like a Gordon injury (remember, he’s missed a combined 46 games the last two years) would likely send the Clippers to the hell that is NBA mediocrity.

The question all of the sudden becomes this: Is this the right core group of players to make the Clippers competitive?

We’ll know soon enough, because for Olshey and the Clippers, there’s no backing out now.

Twitter: @fosterdj

Photo from Insidethehype.com

In the second installment of 3-on-3, three ClipperBlog contributors discuss Eric Gordon’s 2010-2011 season, his All-Star potential and if he can be trusted with the game on the line.

1. True or False: Gordon surprised you last season.

Nick Flynt, ClipperBlog: True. I’ve fallen victim to pointing out Gordon’s PER jump as a testament to his improved game, but really it was likely inflated a bit much by his higher volume shooting. The real development was EJ’s running the pick-and-roll shockingly well, helping him remain pretty effective despite down shooting. Didn’t see that coming.

Jordan Heimer, ClipperBlog: True. The rap on Gordon going into last season was that he was too passive. But Baron’s early season health issues and Blake’s inexperience forced Gordon to assert himself early and often, a role he clearly came to embrace. If anything, Vinny Del Negro’s challenge this season will be finding enough shots for his two budding stars.

Charlie Widdoes, ClipperBlog: Mostly false. I expected him to make the jump to be a more assertive scorer in his second season, so to see him do so in his third came as little surprise. He missed a fair amount of games due to injury (26), and that wasn’t surprising either. The slight surprise came from his development as a vocal leader, starting with his training camp takedown of Baron Davis.

2. True or False: Gordon will be an All-Star in a Clippers uniform.

Nick Flynt, ClipperBlog: True. If you get the shots and do reasonably well, people are going to vote for you. With the Clippers getting a lot more national attention and Gordon looking like the 1b. option on offense, he should be able to overtake other aging shooting guards to make the All-Star game at least once during his time with the Clippers.

Jordan Heimer, ClipperBlog: True — a “provisional true.” Assuming that Gordon signs with the Clips as a restricted free agent in a couple years, he has a great shot. The Western Conference’s elite 2-guards, Kobe and Manu, are in their mid 30′s. If Gordon puts up last year’s numbers on a playoff team, he has a good chance of eventually snatching a spot.

Charlie Widdoes, ClipperBlog: True. This is a three part question: 1) How long will he be a Clipper (at least through the contract extension he’ll sign post-lockout), 2) Will he play at an “All-Star level” (he already does), and 3) Will voters reward his play (the most difficult one, but I’d say yes because Kobe and Manu will fade, the Clippers will win, and his profile will benefit from playing with Blake).

3. True or False: You can trust Gordon to handle the ball in big spots.

Nick Flynt, ClipperBlog: True. The Clippers have two consistent offensive options. One is Gordon, the other is Griffin. EJ’s turnovers per-36 minutes are basically the same as Blake’s, and EJ is a slightly more versatile player with the ball in his hands. As well, his clutch stats last season were excellent. I’m not recommending isolating EJ one-on-one late, but I would have him run a pick-and-roll, come off a screen, etc.

Jordan Heimer, ClipperBlog: False. No one’s better or more reliable slashing to the basket off the pick-and-roll. But in end-game situations, when defenses key on stopping the pick-and-roll, Gordon has often been guilty of trying to do too much, either dribbling himself into a corner or making ill-advised passes in traffic. A coach-enforced moratorium on passing while Gordon is in the air would be a good start.

Charlie Widdoes, ClipperBlog: True. Gordon is like Neftali Feliz, closer for the Texas Rangers. The “tools” are there for both — for Feliz it’s the super-smooth delivery that produces a high-90′s fastball and for Gordon it’s the special mix of quickness, power and touch — but sometimes they just can’t find the strike zone or hang onto the ball. They can make your heart race, but I’ll still bank on their talent winning out.

Twitter: @NickFlynt, @charliewiddoes

The Clippers are a team of the future. Understood.

But what does that really mean, other than the fact that Neil Olshey has the team financially prepared to strike at the likes of Dwight Howard, Deron Williams and Chris Paul in the summer of 2012, assuming they opt out of their respective contracts?

For one, those of you bright-eyed fellows and ladies out there that believe the Clippers can make the playoffs next season might need to lower your expectations a bit. Without a major upgrade at the small forward position the team likely won’t sniff the playoffs in a still-strong Western Conference. As well, we still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen as far as a back-up power forward (though as I said in my last post, I think it’s possible that either Craig Smith or Ike Diogu will be brought back on a one year, and the Clippers can also sign their incoming rookies to fill up roster space).

On the other hand, if Olshey wants the team to look more appealing to a potential big-time free agent in the summer of 2012, we could see a reasonably big move made at some point this season that could see the team competing at a higher level than expected. Besides Chris Kaman’s movable expiring deal, the Clippers can likely afford to acquire a sub-$8 million dollar a year-type player (not accounting for a change in the cap) to fill the small forward gap. We’re talking guys like:

Shane Battier, who is aging, but can hit from range and is still a capable team defender, despite losing a step.

Tayshaun Prince, who is a pretty solid pick-up if the Clippers don’t overpay him.

Caron Butler, whose price may be too high depending on the market, but he could be a perfect fit if he comes back strong from injury.

Andrei Kirilenko, another multitasker who has struggled with injuries.

The problem with many of these (and other) available players is that they’re aging, have had chronic injury issues and are likely to demand too much money or too many years. That isn’t a good recipe for smart, long-term commitment, especially when Olshey wants as little money on the books going into the 2012-13 season as possible.

On the other end of the spectrum, Olshey could look to just fill out the roster with 1-year contracts while allowing Kaman to expire, thus continuing to steer the team on course to having only 7 players under contract by the summer of 2012 (assuming the team re-signs DeAndre Jordan, who is currently restricted, to a multi-year deal). That would allow the team to target a max contract free agent, re-sign Eric Gordon (who will be a restricted free agent after this season) and look to fill out the rest of the roster with lesser available free agents. Blake Griffin’s qualifying offer will be up after the 2013-14 season, after all of this theoretically happens, so the team should also have the money to re-sign him. I would highly, highly support this course of action, if only to avoid overpaying one of those old guys I listed above. It’s also pretty important to make sure the Clippers are able to keep their young guys under contract when they become restricted free agents.

The danger with this course of action is that it depends on the health and steady production of the team’s two budding, but potentially injury-prone stars. Along with that, the Clippers will need this past season’s lottery picks and/or their upcoming lottery picks to pan out and be able to contribute, if only to allow the team to build some depth without having to depend on overpaying mid-level players.

Besides the question of “To sign or not to sign,” any trade involving Kaman requires a lot of thought. For instance, the rumored deal of Kaman for Andre Iguodala leaves the Clippers with Andre Iguodala (good), but this also sticks the team with more money on the books in the summer of 2012 (less good).  The Clippers would owe Iguodala $13.5 million dollars in the 2011-12 season escalating to a $15.9 million early termination option in 2013-14.

Of course, you still get two years of prime Iguodala, but now you’re looking at over $50 million in committed salary after DeAndre gets paid at the end of the lockout, EJ’s next deal is negotiated in the summer of 2012, and first-round pick/roster filler contracts (outside of veteran minimum deals). Using the 2010-11 seasons’ CBA numbers, the Clippers would go over the cap if they signed a max player.

Now, usually this would not be an unmanageable problem, because the current collective bargaining agreement offers assorted exceptions allowing for soft cap overage (leading to luxury tax). But who knows what kind of flexibility a new CBA will afford a team like the Clippers to re-sign, say, a dynamic, maximum-salary power forward when his rookie contract expires.

We probably haven’t come close to covering the full range of thought that goes into trying to turn the Clippers into a perennial playoff team. There are countless things that could go wrong no matter what the Clippers attempt to do in continuing to build this team.

It’s extremely easy to talk about just making a big move and going for broke whenever youget the chance, but it isn’t close to that easy. When you go for broke in the NBA, you end up overpaying Rashard Lewis, or Antawn Jamison, or Gilbert Arenas, or Ben Gordon or Baron Davis. Or you end up dishing an extremely valuable lottery pick for peanuts. If you play it too safe, you end up getting criticized for being unable to lure a superstar, something that has dogged the Rockets recently.

And sometimes, you do everything right and end up getting hit with wave after wave of injury, like the Trail Blazers. What if the Clippers somehow miss out on all of the big names Olshey planned on getting in the summer of 2012? Or what if Blake and EJ can’t stay healthy even if Clippers get their guy?

When you’re building an NBA team, the what-ifs are almost endless. The key to being a successful GM in the NBA is controlling what you can — minimizing risk on contracts, stockpiling assets and, above all, striking the perfect balance between boldness and patience.

In his first season as coach of the Clippers, you could say Vinny Del Negro was exactly what we expected him to be. His perceived ability to develop players and to “get” his team to play hard through the last whistle were the reasons the Clippers hired him over Dwane Casey, who came with high praise for his tactical acumen and leadership. The Clipper Organization believed in the results they saw from Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson under Del Negro in Chicago, and Neil Olshey said as much on the day they introduced him as coach: “We wanted someone who had a history of developing and being willing to play young players, which when you look at [the Bulls'] starting lineup, they certainly did [in Chicago].” As was the case in his last situation, it’s unclear just how much impact he had on the progress of his young players.

The thinking went: if Vinny could preside over Blake Griffin’s imminent launch to superstardom and facilitate the transfer of playmaking duties from Baron Davis to Eric Gordon, the rest of the team would follow their lead, thus transforming the culture of the organization, both on and off the court. No longer would Clipper teams start out strong and show promise, only to degenerate over the courses of injury-riddled, losing seasons.

Never mind that Rose, like Griffin, was probably bound for greatness no matter which coach he played for, the key would be fostering an approach that emphasized player development and would aim to compete in and hopefully win games with the support of veterans like Baron, Chris Kaman, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye and Craig Smith. It would not matter to the Clippers if the young players developed because of him or in spite of him, as long as they progressed.

While the possibility of a winning season vanquished early on, arguably his strongest moment of his first season as coach came at the start of training camp when he called out Baron Davis for his poor fitness level and handled Davis’ eventual return to the lineup with an unwavering sense of purpose. Even in the face of a 1-13 start, he stuck with his approach and allowed Eric Bledsoe to gain valuable experience as the starter. Indeed, the team played hard, but the season was ending before it had a chance to start.

Ups and Downs

With so much depending on how players perform, we can only judge one in the context of the situation Vinny was in. For instance, he had to deal with his share of injuries, as has become the trend with recent Clipper teams, but for the year, the Clippers finished consistently in the bottom half of the league in most significant statistical team categories. According to Basketball-Reference, they ranked 22nd out of 30 teams in Offensive Rating (105.5 Points Per 100 Possessions) and 18th in Defensive Rating (108.6 Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions). As you might expect given their youth and athleticism, they ranked in the top half of the league (12th) in Pace Factor with approximately 93 possessions per 48 minutes.

But all of these numbers mean little without understanding the some of the unique ups and downs of this Clipper season:

• The 1-13 start; Baron hurt/benched; Bledsoe and eventually an entire Under-23 lineup starting.
• 4-4 over their next eight, with wins over two teams with the league’s best record at the time (New Orleans and San Antonio) and the Kings twice. Four losses came against Western Conference playoff contenders.
• Four straight losses against playoff teams.
• Three wins in a row, including a one-point win at Chicago.
• The best stretch of the season with almost everyone healthy, winning 14 of 22 including upsets over the Nuggets, Heat, and Lakers.
• 2-14 in February; Eric Gordon sat out the whole month with wrist injury.
• 11-11 with Mo Williams.

They showed the ability to beat the best teams in the league, and they did so with frequency not indicative of a team with their record. With the pieces in place and a year of experience together, the standard will be set much higher next season. Throughout it all, consistent with his reputation, his team remained generally competitive. They developed an exciting brand of play, which D.J. Foster described after a late-season loss to Dallas:

“Blake Griffin and the Clippers are about more than just the dunk itself – they’re about the energy that comes behind it and from it. They play hard every night. They want to dunk on you, they want to embarrass you. They want to take your heart and destroy you, even if they’re still figuring out the best ways to do it and how to do it consistently.

But all of that is happening and has been all year long. Sure, the Clippers aren’t without their flaws. They turn the ball over too much (21 times tonight), they slump in third quarters and they miss too many free throws, among other things. But those are things you can teach and fix with time.”

X’s and O’s

Del Negro’s critics have always pointed to a rather primitive offensive philosophy as perhaps his most glaring weakness. Like most coaches, he made some questionable decisions — like this one at the end of the game in Memphis towards the end of the year, broken down by Sebastian Pruitti at NBAPlaybook.com. One common concern arose during stretches in some games where the team either settled for jump shots or failed to get Gordon and/or Griffin sufficiently involved. Keeping in perspective that the ball was in the hands of the free-wheeling Davis, the rookie Bledsoe or the newly-acquired Williams for most of the season, it’s reasonable to grant the team time to learn to play together. Going into next year, it is not unreasonable to ask for a more nuanced offensive approach that gives the Clippers a shot to execute better in the half court, and certainly an enhanced emphasis on his two stars. To Vinny’s credit, it’s not like the Clippers didn’t execute their share of inbounds plays out of timeouts, a typical – if not overly simplistic – measure of coaches game-planning abilities.

For a team with such gifted athletes and even some strong individual defenders, you would also have to mention team defense in a discussion of the Clippers’ – and by extension, Del Negro – weaknesses. The team struggled to defend the perimeter, especially when Eric Gordon missed time, and consistently battled poor rotations that led to easy baskets for opponents.

It’s also important to remember that Del Negro is far from the only voice for the players. With so many new faces throughout the year and an entirely new coaching staff, you have to assume that they could (and should) benefit from this season together. Bledsoe, for instance, is presumably working closely with assistant coach, Robert Pack. He told Lisa Dillman around the end of the team’s horrific start to the season: “Coach Pack was telling me he still wants me to play fast,” said Bledsoe, who has been struggling with turnovers. “That’s what I’m trying to do, play fast at the same time but be under control.”

Aminu also spoke about the extensive input he would get from injured vets early on in the season: “They’re like coaches, especially since they’re injured now, so not even playing. They’re just watching the game. They’ve been doing a real good job, like coaches off the court for the coaches.”

Vinny’s impact was mottled with the chaos of a young team and new coaches coming together. But with the foundation of the team now in place, he’ll be judged much more carefully next year.

Development

Without question, Vinny’s primary task was to develop the team’s young core, and in this regard the results were mixed. He spoke ad nauseum at his introductory press conference about having his team “play the right way,” and the Clippers felt comfortable buying into that hope. But what would that mean? Mostly what all coaches mean when they outline their plans for success: take care of the ball, play good defense, give it 110%. But he also stressed patience, a clear indication of his and the organization’s priorities.

When he spoke about “playing the right way,” he certainly couldn’t have been hoping for his team to take such poor care of the ball as they did. The Clippers were 2nd worst in the league in Turnover Rate, which may reflect a lack of discipline and structure, but also the unexpected need for Bledsoe and Aminu to play big minutes right out of the gate. It is disturbing just how easily they could turn the ball over at times, but some offseason work in that area from Gordon, Bledsoe and Aminu and a standard boost that should come from playing together could (and again, should) go a long way towards rectifying the issue.

While Griffin and Gordon are well on their way to stardom, perhaps Vinny’s biggest developmental challenges are with Jordan, Bledsoe and Aminu. Bledsoe was pressed into starting duty in the fourth game of the season, against the Spurs. His consistent energy was a welcome sight for fans looking to forget the image of an out-of-shape Davis dragging things down, but that often came at an expense. His role fluctuated throughout the season, but he continued to play with confidence to go with his exceptional athleticism and speed. He had what appeared to be a couple of “breakout” performances – the March 5 game against Denver jumps to mind – but failed to establish any real consistency. Vinny questioned his (and Aminu’s) preparation and professionalism – his season might best be summed up by the season’s last two games, in which he received a one-game suspension, followed by an electrifying performance in the finale – but if Del Negro and his staff can work to foster his growth as a point guard, they could have yet another young star on their hands.

Like Bledsoe, Aminu struggled to settle into a steady rhythm with the rotation in constant flux, but he did have one stretch early on that suggested his tremendous potential, and it reeked of Del Negro’s support to go out and play without fear of making mistakes. Starting when he scored 20 points on 7-10 shooting in the team’s eighth game, a loss at New Orleans, Aminu had a stretch in which played well enough to legitimately earn a starting spot, one that he would hang onto for 14 of 15 games. From November 9-28, he played 11 games, scored in double figures in eight. He shot 53% from three, 44% from the field and prompted Brian Chan to proclaim: “The Chief has arrived!”

As it turned out, Aminu would come back down to earth, ultimately finding himself behind Jamario Moon on the depth chart even after Gomes’ year ended prematurely. It was disappointing to see Del Negro turn to Moon over the rookie, considering their disparate places in the team’s long-term plans, but we have to consider the possibility that Aminu did, indeed, have work to do in terms or focus and/or preparation. On the other hand, you could see a scenario in which Del Negro chose to eschew development in favor of more immediate stability, arguably a departure from his stated mission and a decision from which Aminu might understandably bristle. Either way, the trajectory of his season left something to be desired, and that has to reflect, at least in part, on the coach.

Both precocious rookies showed glimpses of what they could be, but they generally came mixed with agonizingly typical first-year shortcomings. I’m not sure we can blame a coach, or even a coaching staff, for the kinds of mistakes that these two tended to commit. I do, however, believe that their ability to diagnose and adjust will be of the utmost importance going forward.

DeAndre pretty obviously took another step forward on the defensive end, and he played as big a role as anyone not named Griffin in establishing the Clippers identity in the paint — they led the league in dunks, were second in points in the paint and 8th in total rebound rate. In some ways he is like a much more athletic version of Noah, albeit less cerebral. He has a way to go before reaching Noah’s constant energy, but both have shown the ability to make a difference without any offensive game to speak of. Assuming he re-signs with the team, Del Negro’s ability to keep him engaged has to be a priority this offseason. Still just 22 and with plenty of potential for growth, Vinny knows that consistent effort and focus are the keys for DeAndre.

In his first year, Vinny Del Negro won exactly one more game (32) than former Clippers coaches Mike Dunleavy, Alvin Gentry and Mike Shuler did in their first seasons. Only Paul Silas had more in franchise history, 36, while the team was in San Diego. Considering the dismal start to the season, that’s something. What became clear over the course of the season is the unprecedented potential for the franchise. For Del Negro and his staff, their true value will show in what they do from here, amidst the elevated expectations that come with such promise.

The Clippers dropped their final clash of the season with the Lakers 112-104 in an entertaining but sloppy game last night at the Staples Center. Watching the game, it was hard to figure out how the Clippers kept it as close as they did. Leading scorer Eric Gordon suffered through his worst shooting night of the season, missing his first 11 shots without managing to earn a single trip to the line. By the time he finally made three shots in the final minutes, the game was pretty much decided.

If it wasn’t for Mo Williams, the game wouldn’t have been close at all. The Clippers started the second half down 9, and managed to achieve a rare 3rd quarter victory (32-28) thanks mostly to a 14 point quarter from Williams, including two circus threes. Williams had his best game as a Clipper tonight, scoring a team high 30 points on 11-16 shooting, including 4-7 from beyond the arc.  (The more you watch Mo Williams play, the more he reveals himself as a gunner – if he’s feeling it, he won’t hesitate to call his own number. A lot of the shots he made tonight, particularly in the third quarter, ranked high on degree of difficulty. Only time will tell if Williams can sink enough step back threes and reverse lay-ups to justify such difficult attempts, but for a guy who was supposed to be a soothing antidote to the inconsistency of Baron Davis’ razzle-dazzle, Mo scores pretty high on the “Noooo, nooooo, nooooo….. YESSSSSSSSS!!!” scale himself.)

Still, despite Mo’s efforts, it was hard to figure out how the Clippers were still within a basket midway through the fourth quarter. They turned the ball over more than the Lakers, shot worse, grabbed fewer offensive rebounds, and got to the free throw line less (a whopping 39-18 discrepancy). Besides a solid effort from Blake (22 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals), the Clippers didn’t get much from remaining starters Ryan Gomes or Chris Kaman.

But as sloppy as the Clippers were, the Lakers were often sloppier. Much has been made of the Lakers hot play since the All-Star break, but their play tonight was punctuated throughout by moments of inattention or flat out goofiness. Matt Barnes let two defensive rebounds bounce off his face, and tapped in a third for a Clippers basket. Andrew Bynum threw an outlet pass so accurate that Phil Jackson didn’t have to move to catch it. And Ron Artest set the NBA record for most missed breakaway slams to start a quarter in the third, first getting rejected by the rim and then, thirty seconds later, losing control of the ball on his way up and hurling it wildly against the backboard. Often, the Lakers -particularly the starting unit – were slow to get back on transition after missed shots; the Clippers 21-12 advantage in the fast break helped keep them in the game.

Another reason the Clippers were able to keep it close was that the bench made a rare appearance, outscoring the Lakers’ bench 34-14. Randy Foye and Al-Farouq Aminu were particularly good. Foye did it in his usual way, getting hot from outside in the fourth quarter, and scoring 8 of his 12 points in quick succession on tough jumpers just inside the arc. Aminu had one of those tantalizing games that he and fellow rookie Eric Bledsoe seem to specialize in. On bad nights, it sometimes seems that Farouq has trouble getting into the flow of the game — but then on good nights his play makes you throw around crazy, made up adjectives and adverbs like “Pippin-esque” and “Dengly.”

Two plays in particular stuck out for me. On the first, Aminu grabbed a rebound, surveyed the floor, dribbled past mid-court, realized that no one was stopping him, and attacked the basket with three giant bounds, flushing the ball through the hoop before the D realized he was driving. The rare combination of rebounding instincts, ball handling, aggression, and athleticism you need to pull off this play is rare – almost Blake-like. Having two forwards who can turn rebounds into lay-ups is a scary thing. The second play was as much about Blake Griffin’s growing basketball IQ as it is about Aminu’s skills, but whatever. Midway through the fourth, Blake had the ball on the left block, guarded by Lamar Odom. Griffin shifted the ball away from the basket as if he was considering a turn around jumper, which forced Odom to come a half step out of the lane. That space created an alley for Aminu to streak down, and Blake hit him in stride, whipping the pass past Odom’s face. It would have been a masterful play no matter who was running it, but for two rookies to pull it off is extremely encouraging.

(And while we’re on specific plays, tonight’s game provided two more entries for the “Blake Griffin: Don’t Start Taking Me For Granted Yet Please” file. First, Randy Foye found Blake on an alley-oop from a good ¾ of the way down the court – a good 70 feet – possibly the season’s most impressive long range hookup. Later, Mo Williams failed to pass the ball early enough on a botched fast break and ended up trapped underneath the basket. As a last resort, he threw the ball up in the air about three feet behind a leaping Griffin. Blake – already in the air – managed to reach his right arm back over his head like Plastic Man, corral the ball a good two feet behind his neck and then somehow maintain control of the ball as he windmilled it home.)

Turnovers continue to be a problem. There were “only” 16 tonight (compared to, say, the 25 against the Wizards earlier in the week), but many came off wholly unforced errors and led to 12 momentum killing fast break points for the Lakers. I admit I didn’t know Mo Williams’ game that well before he came to the Clippers. It’s natural that Mo would be compared to Baron, and just as natural to contrast the point guards in an easy, binary way. Williams can stroke it consistently from deep; Baron couldn’t. Williams prefers to run a pick and roll; Baron was more comfortable throwing the ball inside. But as a distributor, Mo shares some of Baron’s most aggravating qualities. He often tries too hard to force tough passes through impossibly small openings, and seems to have the same over-confidence in his ability to keep his dribble alive while slaloming through defenders. Williams had 5 turnovers last night, and he has a higher TO% (% of possessions that end in a turn over) than Baron Davis, both this season and over his career. It’s worth noting, because the assumption has seemed to be that Mo Williams’ arrival would lead to a more careful brand of basketball. Instead, you’re left to wonder what the Clippers can do about the fact that their top four scorers (Kaman, Williams, Gordon, and Griffin) are all prone to giving the ball away.

If Ron Artest continues to play with the defensive intensity he brought tonight, it significantly increases the Lakers’ chances for a third consecutive title. Tonight, Artest had 3 turnovers to go along with 3 blocks (all 3, somewhat unusually, came off close-outs on the perimeter), 15 points, and a game high +/- +21. The last turn over Artest forced was the game clincher. Down 5 with under 4 minutes to play in the game, the Clippers had a fast break opportunity off a DeAndre Jordan blocked shot. Blake took one dribble in the paint and attempted to rise past Artest, who somehow managed to artfully poke the ball out of Blake’s hands before he could elevate. Blake wanted a call but didn’t deserve one, and that was basically that.

And in the end, the Clippers just couldn’t get a stop when they needed one. There was Kobe being Kobe in the fourth quarter again, scoring 12 of his game high 37 points, and basically driving poor Eric Gordon out of his mind. Remember how Eric Gordon and Kobe Bryant had essentially identical statistics after the first two Lakers-Clips game? Not tonight. In addition to his offensive woes, Eric Gordon was manhandled by Kobe, who not only made his usual handful of late-MJ-style midrange jumpers but also got to the charity stripe an amazing 17 times. (I know this is typical Laker-hater bile, but… seriously, does any player get the “respect” from refs that Kobe does? Randy Foye fouled out of the game guarding him for less than 15 minutes – and on replay it looked like Foye didn’t even touch Kobe on two of the fouls.)

The downside to the Clippers (finally) playing at full strength is that it’s a lot harder to make excuses. With either Kaman or EJ on the bench for the majority of the season, Clipper fans have been quick to blame many of the season’s losses on a lack of firepower due to injury. Of course, the Clippers are stronger with their stars on the court, but games like this are reminders of the Clips’ struggles early in the season, when the question wasn’t firepower, but finding a balanced scheme to maximize the talent. There have been times since EJs return – most obviously against the Wizards – when he has been visibly frustrated by his lack of touches. Assuming the team doesn’t trade Kaman over the summer, the Clippers are going to enter next season with at least four players who probably consider themselves primary or (at the least) secondary scorers. Figuring out how to make that work should be the focus of Vinny and his team over the final 10 games.

For a meaningless Mid-March game between two lottery-bound squads, there was no shortage of interesting story lines surrounding today’s game against the Cavs: 1. Eric Gordon’s second attempt to return from his wrist injury. 2. Baron Davis’ return to the Staples Center. 3. The Clippers attempt not to be swept by the league’s worst team, a month after becoming the answer to future Jeopardy question Who did the moribund 2011 Cleveland Cavaliers beat, finally ending a league record 26 game losing streak? (Most people won’t know the answer but will guess the Clippers anyway). Then, far lower on the list: 4. Blake Griffin “Hitting the Rookie Wall” watch. 5. Trying to figure out whatever there is to figure out from watching the team finally play at full strength.

Oh, and also an hour before the game a man charged out of the stands wielding a steak knife, after which, according to the Clippers Post Game radio show, he was surrounded by a joint task force of police men and Staples Center Security elite and subdued with rubber bullets. So there was a lot going on.

Maybe the knife really shook people, because what followed was an uneven game, not unlike the one the Clips lost to the Cavaliers last month. The Cavaliers never led after the second quarter – but the Clippers never put together the 8 minute stretch of energetic error-free basketball that would have put the Cavs away.

For me, at this point in the season the answers to certain individual questions (How will Mo Williams work with Eric Gordon? Could Kaman be a Sixth Man for an entire season?) have become as important as wins and losses. It seems natural that players also sense it when that barrier has been crossed. These Clippers are definitely still playing hard (unlike, say, last March’s contract hunters, Travis Outlaw and Drew Goodon… which, by the way, worked for both of them) but there were signs of inattention scattered between spurts of good play – the kind of foolish mistakes there seemed to be fewer of when the team was still “in contention.”

There were quarters that ended on possessions when the Clippers failed to get off a final shot. There were total defensive breakdowns, where everyone would simultaneously abandon the paint – at one point allowing a man named Alonzo Gee to streak untouched down the paint and rise for a full 360 slam like he was auditioning for the dunk contest. There were multiple lane violations. Little signs of a team with wavering attention.

But in the end, the Cavs were just worse. I mean, I know piling on bad play is pure hubris for a Clippers fan, but aside from JJ Hickson (who, if you’ve only seen him play against the Clippers you must think is one of the ten best players in the NBA) these Cavs played some ugly basketball. There was one inexplicable stretch early in the fourth quarter when – down 2, and on the verge of taking the lead – the Cavs burned three consective possessions on Lake Harangody jump shots, the first of which was one of the ugliest shots you will ever see in an NBA game. Or any basketball game, for that matter. The fact that epitomizes the Cavs play today: In their 6 possessions in the final 2 minutes the Cavs managed a total of three shot attempts. The Clippers didn’t play particularly well, but they did just enough to put away a weak team.

So that was the game. What about those storylines?

How’s Eric Gordon look?

Plenty of people realize Eric Gordon “took a step” this year, but I think to some extent Blake Griffin’s All-World rookie season (in addition, obviously, to EJ’s recent injuries) have overshadowed how dramatic that leap has been. There’s a short list of guys in the NBA who can roll off an injury and drop 29 points, guys who – judging from their blasé reactions – expect to walk in and drop 29. Eric Gordon is on that list.

Last year, Eric Gordon’s poor performances in “return” games were blamed on a lack of confidence. He would look tentative, as if each time he came back he was readjusting all over again – to his shot, his legs, the speed of the game, the flow of the team. What happened to that Eric Gordon? He came out gunning two weeks ago coming off the Wrist Part I, and tonight he did the same. It was a showcase of his confidence this year. On his first touch, he knifed to the basket, split two defenders, forced contact, and made a tough shot as he went to the floor. After jacking up a couple ugly looking contested 3s in the first half, Gordon found the range in the fourth quarter, knocking down 3 in 4 possessions. He was 6 for 10 from three and completely without that hesitations we saw from Eric as recently as past November. I really don’t know how to explain it. (It would pain me to credit the magic of Coach K even a little). But I can’t ever remember watching another player so fully going from a guy who seemed a little shaky in the confidence department to being a cold blooded scorer who always wants to take his shot.

Also, he still has that Demolition Man haircut.

Baron’s Return

There really wasn’t one. Baron sat this one out with back spasms. It’s hard not to feel for Baron who, according to reports, learned that his grandmother had to check into the hospital the same day he was traded for Cleveland. I’ve already waxed poetic about Baron plenty, but it’s depressing to imagine Baron freezing away his final productive years in Cleveland. (Is there still buyout talk? Is the idea of Baron coordinating the circus in Miami crazy?)

Is Blake Griffin hitting the “Rookie Wall?”

Blake had his best game in a month, scoring 30 points along with 9 rebounds and 8 assists. It was a good day for youtube curators of Blake Griffin highlight reels, who have suffered through a slow month. Surprisingly, Cleveland chose to play Blake one-on-one for much of the game, despite not really having a player in their front court capable of matching up with him physically. Samardo Samuels drew the unenviable assignment the most often, and was victimized accordingly, first with a down-the-lane reverse jam, and later with a stumbling upside down prayer that was first called a travel, then a basket with a foul, and finally a foul before the act. Whatever. It was pretty spectacular.

The huge stats, of course, don’t necessarily disprove the idea that Blake Griffin might be hitting the dreaded “Rookie Wall.” It would be strange if Griffin wasn’t tired. He’s played starter’s minutes for 60 games, didn’t have an All-Star break, and was forced to become the primary offensive weapon at the same time that coaches were beginning to game plan for him anyway. That takes a toll. Blake had room tonight, a rare commodity during Eric Gordon’s absence, in addition to relatively weak opposition. On the East Coast trip, teams were using two guys to force Blake to make plays 12-18 feet from the basket. Today, Blake got whatever position he wanted with a power dribble and a few backward jolts. Luckily, the Clippers next two opponents – Phoenix and Washington – aren’t strong inside either so… undecided. He clearly has plenty left, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t lost a little pop. (The decrease in rebounds the past two weeks might be a better indicator of this than points, which I think had a lot to do with opponent’s ability to double Blake without consequences in the absence of Eric Gordon).

(By the way: Blake’s quote on the pre-game knife-wilder:  “That was crazy man. There aren’t too many stand offs in Oklahoma. Not that I can remember.” Wait – does that mean he is leaving for the Thunder?)

What do we learn about the team flow with everyone playing?

Simple. To steal a word from Mike Smith, Eric Gordon changes the entire “geometry” of the team. His slashing ability makes it impossible for defenses to smother Blake with unvarying double teams. On defense, his ability to keep perimeter scorers out of the lane creates far fewer easy layups and/or situations where DeAndre or Blake have to foul. How many times in the past month have Blake and DeAndre been left alone to stop a streaking shooter? In short, the next time Eric Gordon gets injured I probably shouldn’t write that “Randy Foye can be Eric Gordon lite – at least for a few weeks.” Eric Gordon is a star. Mike borrowed a little flair from Clyde, noting that EJ “alleviates and facilitates.” And if Eric Gordon, it turns out, is as essential to this team’s success as any player, then is it time to start worrying about his propensity to injury? He missed 20 games last year, and he’ll miss almost 30 this year. With such a small sample size it’s hard to separate a few unrelated humps and bruises from a pattern. Time will tell obviously.

(Also – and I know this should be its own post – but in terms of “what the team needs going forward” take a look at the list of free agents that went up on ESPN. Pretty uninspiring group of small forwards (the Clippers most obvious need). Fliers on Caron Butler or Tayshaun Prince, or maybe Vlad Rad, CJ Miles. And down from there. Last off season, Neil Olshey showed admirable restraint in staying away from overpaying a free agent just to get a free agent. It will be interesting to see if that means he is more likely to try to trade than give, say, Prince 3 years 18 million dollars)

More proof that Kaman would make a good sixth man

I’m fully in this camp. I’m convinced Chris Kaman could win the sixth man of year. I know it’s not traditional, but there are so many things I like about Kaman as a sixth man (this is all assuming DeAndre and Kaman are still on the team next year.) 1. The mismatches. No back up 5 in the West could guard him. 2. As the sub he’ll often be in when the team is in the penalty, minimizing DJs foul shots. 3. He’s a guy who needs to get into a rhythm. You need to get Kaman his shots, but not at the expense of Blake, EJ, and Mo Williams. I love the lineups where Vinny plays Kaman with an energy unit (Aminu, Bledsoe, Moon, Smith, say) and just features Kaman in the post, play after play. Today, we saw the equally important corollary: When Kaman is off, the damage is limited. Sabermatricians can argue over the myth of the hot hand, but Chris Kaman is the streakiest guy I’ve ever seen. Today was one of those days for Chris – missed shots, sloppy fouls on defense, a few ungainly looking turnovers. But it’s effect on the flow of Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin was limited – and the rest of the second unit still continued to play hard defense and crash the boards.

Over the past four seasons, neither the Clippers nor the Knicks have won more than 32 games in any of them. During the losing, they have shared such players as Zach Randolph, Tim Thomas, Mardy Collins and Cuttino Mobley (kind of). Yet while both struggled to win, even to put together consistent lineups at many points, they have managed to produce some of the most entertaining basketball moments of that time when they got together. Two years ago, they played not one, , but two overtime thrillers, including a 35-point, eight rebound(!) outburst by Mike Taylor that had the fans at the Garden going crazy. Both games, somehow, were heavily influenced by Al Harrington getting called for hanging on the rim down the stretch.

Their first meeting this season was an instant classic and a turning point for the young Clips. The Knicks won, 124-115, behind 39 points from Amar’e Staudemire, but it marked the end of a 1-13 start for the Clippers and gave promise for good things to come. Blake Griffin had the best game of his career (to that point), with 44 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists and a whole collection of highlight dunks in his breakout performance. It propelled the team to win three of its next five games, including New Orleans and San Antonio while they owned the league’s best records. Since that game, the Clippers are 18-19, with wins over the Lakers, Heat, Nuggets, and Bulls. They are coming off of four consecutive losses (including the first three games of the current 11-game roadtrip), though, and as you would expect, are struggling to replace Eric Gordon.

The Knicks come in at 26-24, good enough for the sixth best record in the Eastern Conference. Their play has been streaky; at one point they rattled off 13 wins in 14 games, but only two of those came against teams with records above .500. They have had success at times behind Raymond Felton and Amar’e, but have struggled to sustain a consistent level of play without a legitimate starting center or any depth in the backcourt.

When these two teams meet again, it will be a battle of tempo and the ability to play to each one’s strengths. The Knicks play at the 2nd fastest pace in the league and will look to push the ball up the floor to Amar’e and open shooters. The Clippers will attempt to defend the perimeter better than they have recently, limit turnovers (they commit the 2nd most turnovers per game, 16.1) and control the glass if they hope to get their first win of the road trip.

Keys to the Game

-The 2008 Draft. The Knicks had the sixth pick in Donnie Walsh’s first draft as G.M., and with it, they took 6’10” forward Danilo Gallinari. With the next pick, Mike Dunleavy took a player he never expected would be available, Eric Gordon. The two are different as players, and the Clippers may have wound up with the better player, but the Knicks are still high on the hilarious Italian. At the time, Walsh said he envisioned Gallo becoming a superstar a la Dirk Nowitzki, with his mix of size, shooting touch, feel for the game, and of, course, European-ness. These two will always be connected in the eyes on many Knicks and Clippers fans, and though they have taken different paths, they remain integral parts of their respective teams. Gallo may not ever become Dirk, but he is still 22 and shows flashes of being very difficult to stop. He ranks eighth among forwards who qualify in True Shooting Percentage (60.8%), and many Knicks fans would like to see him featured more prominently in the team’s offense. As a secondary option behind the Felton-Amar’e pick-and-roll, he tends to get lost standing around on the perimeter at times, but he is deadly from three and has improved his game going to the basket – according to Hoopdata, he is converting 70% of his shots at the rim this season, up from 59.4% last year.

For Gordon, his significance is felt as much in his absence as when he’s playing. Not many teams have a player like him, and even fewer would be prepared to account for losing him. The Clippers have won two of eight games since Gordon went out, with both wins coming against mediocre Eastern Conference teams. Randy Foye has assumed his starting spot, but the team has been unable to provide enough balance on the perimeter to prevent teams from clogging up the lane and swarming Griffin. As Blake said to Kevin Arnovitz a couple games ago, “it changes the game with Eric Gordon out.” Foye had another poor shooting night on Tuesday against Orlando (3-13), his third stinker in the last four games, a problem for the team that suddenly lacks depth at guard.

-Battle of the Bigs. The Knicks have had some success doing what they do, but they have also shown a glaring weakness on defense and on the glass. Amar’e is the main event for New York, but they have yet to find him a viable post partner, someone who can make up for his shortcomings in those areas. Rookie Timofey Mozgov (the pinnacle of Blake posterization) has seen a bump in playing time over the last four games, and he has shown promise, including a 23-point, 14-rebound performance in almost 40 minutes against Detroit. He has intriguing athleticism for someone his size (7’1”), and may prove to be a nice piece of their rotation, but this is a matchup against the Knicks bigs that should be a big advantage for the Clippers. The Knicks have been awful on the boards (26th in the league with a -3.7 number against their opponents), while the Clippers have found their strength there (4th in the league, +3.7).

Griffin managed to get the best of Amar’e last time they met, and by many measures, has been better all season, believe it or not. While Amar’e has generated impressive scoring numbers (26ppg), he has done so with the most touches of any power forward in the league (31.42 % of possessions used). Blake, on the other hand, scores slightly less (22.9 ppg, third among power forwards), but with a smaller Usage Rate (27.81). At this point, Amar’e is better equipped to operate on offense thanks to the shooters that surround him, whereas Blake will need to get used to constant double- and triple-teams until Gordon returns – as evidenced by his 4-12 shooting performance against the Magic. What separates these two elite power forwards, though, is their rebounding ability. Blake ranks sixth (19.8) among power forwards in Total Rebound Rate, while Amar’e comes in 31st, with 13.1. It’s a staggering difference, one that should give the Clippers a real edge. If Blake and DeAndre Jordan cannot establish a strong advantage on the glass, they could be in real trouble.

-Baron against Felton. When the Knicks have won, they have generally done so on the strength of strong point guard play from Felton. He is averaging 17 points and nearly nine assists a game, mostly from thriving in D’Antoni’s system. He has arguably the best scoring big man in Stoudemire, and the two have become a dangerous pick-and-roll pair. While he has proven to be a savvy pickup by Walsh, Felton’s early numbers may be slightly misleading and his play has cooled off after a hot start way above his career levels. His field goal percentage (42%) and three point percentage (33%) are actually down from last season in Charlotte, and despite calls for an All-Star spot, his Adjusted PER (18.9), puts him in the middle of the pack among point guards. Despite his ups-and-downs, he remains a dangerous threat to shoot from three and is capable of finding open shooters off the pick-and-roll.

Baron, meanwhile, has seen his Adjusted PER (17.9) rise as he has worked himself into shape and into sync with his high-flying teammates. Once trailing way behind Felton among point guards this season, Baron enters this game as a key for the Clippers, coming off an impressive performance against Orlando (25 points, eight rebounds, eight assists). He may have a great opportunity to get in the lane against the defensively-challenged Knicks, and if he does so, he should find open looks for himself and dump-offs to Griffin and Jordan. It should be an uptempo night, in which case it will be Baron’s responsibility to control the ball and limit turnovers. If he can do that, the Clippers have a good chance to beat the Knicks at their own game.

Injury Report

Chris Kaman: left ankle, out
Craig Smith: herniated disc, out
Eric Gordon: wrist/back, day to day (out) (note on Gordon: Lisa Dillman tweeted that Eric Gordon saw the doctor and the original timetable is unchanged)

Kelenna Azubuike: left knee, out
Eddy Curry: left hamstring, out
Ronny Turiaf: sprained right ankle, doubtful

Note: Breene will be at ESPN’s Daily Dime Live if you want to stop by and chat with him

Two months ago, when the Clippers met the Indiana Pacers, their season was careening toward disaster. After getting blown out by 27 points in Indianapolis to begin the season 1-12, when even Blake Griffin looked lethargic and scored a quiet 12 points, there was a growing fear that the malaise which hung over the Clippers franchise would eventually sap the enthusiasm of their young nucleus before they have a chance to bloom. Even Eric Gordon, the one constant Clippers bright spot in the young season, had one of his worst games of the year, making only 5 out of 17 shots for 19 points.

After the game, an angry Blake Griffin said that things had to change. Many players in Clippers history have made that proclamation before, both in hubris and in despair. But very few have been able to back up their words with action. In the following game against the Knicks, Blake came out and backed up his words with an exclamation point. In a game that the Clippers would eventually lose, Blake broke the Clippers’ rookie scoring record with 44 points, grabbed 15 rebounds, and dished out 7 assists. The numbers were impressive enough, but it was his exuberance display of power and speed that was breathtaking.

Blake’s breakthrough performance in that Knicks game would be a turning point for the Clippers franchise, even as it heralded his arrival as the league’s next marquee player. Since that Indiana game, Blake has registered a double-double in every contest, and his points, rebounds, and assists have climbed every month to a dizzying level. While Eric Gordon has established himself as the team’s quiet scoring leader and most consistent performer, Blake Griffin has raised his game to a superstar level. And everyone on the team, from his friend DeAndre Jordan on down to the mercurial Baron Davis, has followed his lead. It was as if the mood of the franchise and the locker room suddenly shifted when the players realized that they are playing alongside one of the strongest and quickest players in the league, someone who can impose his will upon the game and demoralize the opposition. Slowly, the team started competing, their collective energy and effort rising to meet the surge of their rookie superstar.

After a horrendous 1-13 start, the Clippers have clawed back toward respectability, winning 9 out of their last 13, and notching memorable wins against the league’s best squads. And so, when the Indiana Pacers met the Clippers again on this Martin Luther King holiday, they are playing a different Clippers team, one that has been riding high, their confidence and joy rising with each unexpected victory.

The Clippers started the game slowly, with Blake ominously picking up an offensive foul 45 seconds into the game. The Pacers jumped out to an early 7-2 lead, the Clippers’ only bucket came when Blake overpowered Tyler Hansbrough in the low block. With the rest of the team struggling, Blake begins to impose his will upon the contest, scoring 10 of the Clippers’ first 12 points. The Pacers were determined not to let Blake get into the paint and they sagged off him, daring him to shoot from the outside. After a frustrating first half against the Lakers on Sunday, Coach Vinny Del Negro told Griffin that, “When you’re open, you shoot the ball. I don’t care if you miss every one; you’ve got to play with confidence. You’ve got to be aggressive. I’m going to throw you the ball every time. You’ve got to make plays.” And today Blake Griffin did pull the trigger on his mid-range jumper, and he nailed almost every single one. It was almost a preview of what his game might become in the not-too-distant future, and if so, then the rest of the league is in deep trouble.

Darren Collison’s speed hurt the Clippers’ early, and the Pacer’s prized off-season acquisition would finish the game with an impressive 30 points and 8 assists. Early in the first quarter Collison, the young UCLA point guard confidently hit a shot over Baron Davis’ outstretched hands. Not to be upstaged by a fellow Bruins alumnus, Baron promptly came down and clanged a three off the rim. It was a rare sighting of the Bad Baron, who otherwise played a controlled game and responded with some big shots down the stretch when the defense forgot about him. In this remarkable period of Clippers resurgence, when DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Ike Digou have all raised their level of play, it is Baron Davis’ willingness to play the stabilizing distributor role to his rising young running mates that has been the most surprising development of all. Though he did not shoot well, Baron managed the Clippers offense efficiently, chipping in 14 points and passing out 12 assists.

After scoring 30 points against the Lakers the day before, the Clippers’ other big gun—Eric Gordon—scored 23 points on 8-15 shooting, going 3-6 at the three point line and collecting 7 dimes. Often obscured by the incandescent performance of Blake Griffin and his highlight reel plays, Gordon has quietly established himself as one of the league’s premier shooting guard, and a legitimate star in his own right. At crucial junctures in the game, when the Clippers were making a run and needed to get over the hump, EJ is no longer hesitant to take the big shot. He gave the Clippers their first lead at 21-20 by stepping into a three pointer. And later in the second quarter, in a seesaw battle when the Pacers answered every Clippers run with surges of their own to establish a 45-35 advantage, the Clippers fought back and Gordon nailed another three pointer to swing the lead back to the Clippers at 47-46. In a game when the opposition consistently leads by a few buckets and a team is constantly clawing their way back, it is the stars that must pull their teammates over the hump before frustration, fatigue, and demoralization can set in. Eric Gordon did that tonight, time and time again. With the third quarter winding down and the Pacers leading 80-79, Eric wound the clock down beautifully, split the double team and charged down the lane for a rim-rattling dunk, giving the Clippers an 81-80 edge heading into the fourth quarter.

The Pacers two big guns tonight of Collison and Granger combined for an impressive 62 points. The Clippers two big guns of Gordon and Griffin combined for an astounding 70 of the team’s 114 points. But as many big shots that Gordon and Baron hit tonight, no one was more dominating than Blake Griffin. Blake broke his own rookie scoring record with 47 points on 19-24 shooting. He had 28 points at half time, while the rest of the team managed only 27 points. As hard as the Pacers tried to keep Blake out of the paint, he was not to be denied. He scored on a variety of post moves and offensive put backs, beating his defender to the hoop with his quickness and overpowering a shot over Hibbert’s or Foster’s attempts to foul him. When the defense sags off Blake to prevent him from driving at all costs, he hit wide-open midrange jumpers to make them pay for their transgressions. “We wanted to keep him from getting to the paint and just make him take tough jumpers. But he was making a lot of jump shots, so it was hard to defend him,” Granger said. Conscious of Blake’s abilities to find open teammates out of the double team, the Pacers were determined to play him one on one in the first half, and it backfired as Blake’s confident grew with each open jumper. Granger said that the Pacers went into the locker room at half time and told each other that they can’t allow Blake to do that again in the second half, “but we just couldn’t stop him.”

The Pacers made their final run in the final minutes of play, shaving the Clippers 10 points lead down to three at 107-104 by doubling Blake and forcing the ball out of his hand. Blake found Randy Foye open for a short corner three but he misfired. The next time down, Blake swung the ball to an open Foye again, who promptly turned the ball over to Collison. Griffin made the right plays both times, but the Clippers came up empty and the Pacers edged closer. With the Clippers badly in need of a hoop, Blake eschewed trying to pass out of the double team that was converging upon him and quickly spun to the bucket for a hook shot to push the Clippers lead back up to 5. It was his 45th point of the game and perhaps another defining moment in his young career. Blake is a fundamentally sound and unselfish player. He trusts his teammates and they, in turn, play with more confidence around him. But at crucial points in the contest, as the clock is winding down and the game is on the line, it must be he or Eric Gordon who takes the defining shots, for it is to them whom their teammates turn, and it is to them who will determine the direction of this franchise. At the crucial juncture, Blake imposed his will on the game today, double team be damned. He would score the last points of the game with a beautiful up-and-under move for his 47th points, the highest total of any player so far in this NBA season.

Pacers coach, Jim O’Brien said that “It’s not a matter of it slipping away, It’s a matter of Griffin’s performance taking it away. It was a spectacular performance by Griffin. We couldn’t guard him. Most of his plays came on pick-and-rolls, so Roy [Hibbert] coming over to guard him was not a good option. Then we had Jeff [Foster], who’s our best defender, rotating to him and we had Danny [Granger] rotating to him. But he was just too much for us to handle.”

Earlier in the year, another NBA stalwart, Jerry Sloan, said that Griffin is one of the few players that he is willing to pay money to see, and that is high compliment because he is notoriously cheap. Sloan also mentioned that Blake’s game reminds him of Larry Bird, a strange comparison as Blake’s inside power game is vastly different from the dead-eye sniping of Larry the Legend. But what Sloan was referring to was Blake’s all around game and his on court intelligence. And in the last month, Blake’s points and assists closely resembles a young Larry Bird, though Griffin’s rebounding number is vastly superior. As we sat there at Staples Center during this mid afternoon game, my friend Kris informed me that her roommate said the TV broadcast showed Bird sitting somewhere behind the Pacers bench. We craned our necks from behind the basket but couldn’t see him from our vantage point. Bird was there to watch his Indiana team play, of course, but I wonder if he was there to also admire the fierce competitiveness of the league’s heralded young star, whose energy and passion for the game burns as brightly as his, and whose remarkable physical gifts may one day elevate him into the pantheon of all time greats.

Since that defining Knicks game, Griffin has been collecting accolades from the league’s elite players. After yesterday’s victory over the Lakers, Kobe said that Blake “punked” them, “He just ran through us. We didn’t put up much of a fight.” For someone as tough and competitive as Kobe, that is as high a compliment as you can get if you’re the opposition. Certain players in the league are capable of efficiently filling up a box score, while others are able to conjure up an occasional highlight reel play to burnish their reputation on Sports Center. Very few athletes are able to dominate their sport in such a consistent and dramatic manner. Blake Griffin has now notched his 27th consecutive double-double, and a new career high of 47 points along with 14 rebounds. That it does not seem a remarkable accomplishment is testimony to his rarefied level of play over the past two months. In the world of sports, we can admire the sustained excellence of a heavyweight boxing champion like Lennox Lewis, who won consistently but who failed to stir our emotions or our collective memory. The violent reign of Mike Tyson was shorter, but in his brief period of ascension, his brutal demolitions of the likes of Trevor Berbick established Iron Mike as a riveting star, whose performance transcended the sport. Blake Griffin’s violent assaults upon the rim is now beginning to capture the imagination of casual fans, but even more impressive than that, he is slowly becoming the player that other NBA players watch. It is a rare thing to behold.