Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Dissecting the Side-Screen Roll Since 2006

Boston 95, Clippers 89

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On January - 25 - 2010

There isn’t a game on the schedule where Eric Gordon doesn’t come in handy, but against Boston’s ball pressure in the halfcourt, EJ’s absence is especially costly. The Celtics’ defense focuses on cutting off large swaths of the floor with hard traps. The best way to alleviate that pressure? Perimeter spacing, something that can be achieved with a couple of lethal perimeter threats. Without a shooter like Gordon keeping the defense honest, the Celtics’ tighten their vise even further.

Chris Kaman doesn’t get so much as a touch until the fourth possession, as Boston’s big men deny him the simplest entry pass. He knocks down that first touch (1st, 9:45), but not before Perkins pushes him back with that big left hand, forcing Chris into an awkward fall-away. Kaman hits his second attempt as well (1st, 8:13) when Perkins absently blitzes Baron, with no one rotating on Chris.

After that, it’s a tough go. Kaman converts only three of his final 16 attempts and never sees the stripe.

Kendrick Perkins might be best known for his brawn, but he’s very cerebral with that physicality. Perk pushes his defensive assignment off his preferred spot, but more than anything, he wants that man to feel uncomfortable. He wants him to know that what little space he’s afforded comes at a premium and can be taken away without notice. When Baron and Kaman flirt with the pick-and-roll in the first quarter, Perkins dances between Kaman and Rondo, making sure that Chris isn’t able to initiate the action. At the same time, he’s watching for the slip, making sure that Kaman doesn’t pop out to open space for a quick dish and a clean look. When Chris has the ball one-on-one, it’s all pokes and hips from Perkins. Kevin Garnett picks up Kaman in transition (1st, 5:27), and stays in front of him throughout the possession, even after Davis slows it up to look for offense.

The Clippers can’t find much of it all night, and when there are rare opportunities to get easy scores, the Clippers’ shpilkes get the better of them. Desperate to get anything in transition — because nothing is working in the halfcourt — the Clips overthrow an outlet pass on a potential break on four separate occasions. These aren’t instances of random carelessness; they’re the direct result of the Celtics’ defense. For a while, it looks like the Clips might go to that old standby: Baron Davis in the post against a smaller opposing point guard. Tonight, the Celtics are ready and send quick help when Baron begins his assault on Rajon Rondo.

Somehow, despite the poor shooting, the Clippers are able to build a lead in the second quarter and hang around until the bitter end. Again, it’s the second unit led by Mardy Collins, Ricky Davis and Craig Smith that empowers the Clippers. You see it on their first defensive possession of the second quarter (2nd, 11:05). They buzz around the halfcourt, talking to one another and pointing to primary defensive assignments who are being vacated for double-teams. They contest every pass and shot. It certainly helps that Rasheed Wallace takes all the 3-point attempts he can eat and that Boston has not one legitimate passer in their reserve unit, but the Clippers’ activity is unmatched and it ignites a 16-7 run to give the Clippers an eight-point lead (nine was their largest). When the Celtics appear like they might run away with the game in the fourth, the backups come through again. Smith bullies Perkins one-on-one on the offensive end and the unit again communicates well on the defensive end. You see it at (4th, 9:07) when an early, high screen from Wallace yields a mismatch for Rondo in DeAndre Jordan. As Rondo lures DJ out to the perimeter to prepare to carve him off the dribble, Ricky Davis dashes over to help while the rest of the defense rotates. It’s a high-quality brand of basketball from some very improbable sources.

The defining stretch of the game, though, is the outset of the second half, when the Clippers are stifled by the Celtics’ energized halfcourt defense. The Celtics do more than just push the Clippers out. You’ll see Paul Pierce double Kaman off the ball underneath on the weak side (3rd, 11:08). You’ll see the Celtics send Garnett to pick up Chris on a Baron-Kaman screen (3rd, 8:05), with Perkins staying on Baron and Rondo free to rove passing lanes. As the ball works its way over to one side of the floor, the Celtics follow it, strangling the Clippers and inducing flaming bag (3rd, 7:51) after flaming bag (3rd, 7:05) at the shot clock buzzer. Pressure like this can be combated by quick reversals to good shooters, but the Clippers don’t establish any semblance of an outside game until the interminable closing minute when, in desperation, they drain three 3-pointers. Even with the late heroics, it’s never more than a two-possession game.

Though the contest never gets out of the Clippers’ reach, it’s never in their grasp either. Somehow, that 4-to-10 point lead the Celtics nurse most of the second half seems insurmountable.

Clippers 92, Washington 78

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On January - 24 - 2010

The Clippers’ exceptional defensive effort Sunday afternoon in Washington features only two blemishes:

  • When the Clips run perimeter traps at the Wizards’ guards, the rotations onto Antawn Jamison aren’t prompt. Jamison is one of the best bigs in the league at finding mismatches or open space off blitzes and he burns the Clippers on a few occasions, keeping Washington in the game longer than they rightly should be.
  • Chris Kaman grabs one defensive rebound all afternoon. In contrast, Brandon Haywood and Jamison secure seven and four offensive rebounds respectively. In the first half, more than a quarter of the Wizards points come on second chances. The downturn in Kaman’s offensive rebounding numbers can be ascribed to his playing more pick-and-pop basketball, but there’s no good reason a 7-footer guarding the opposing center should come up with a lone defensive board.

Apart from that, the Clippers grind the Wizards down defensively, giving up only 78 points on 92 possessions.

The reserve unit is particularly stingy during its second and fourth quarter stints. The backups pressure Caron Butler with double-teams early in the second, denying Washington a chance to establish any offensive rhythm. In the fourth quarter, with the Clippers hanging on to a three-point lead, there’s a different defensive dynamic on the floor, but the unit led by Mardy Collins produces the same result: It’s an incredible flurry of activity. Collins, Rasual Butler and Al Thornton each records a block shot within a 90-second stretch upon checking in. 30 seconds later, Chris Kaman cuts off a Caron Butler baseline drive and swats away yet another Washington attempt. Though the Wizards waste multiple possessions early in the game taking ill-advised early jumpers, they’re unable to get anything resembling a clean look when the Clippers make their stand late. For a team that’s had a wretched time putting opponents away in the fourth quarter this season, it’s a laudatory performance. By the time Baron Davis re-enters with 4:00 remaining in the game, the Clippers’ lead is back to 10 and never in jeopardy again.

Another factor for the Clippers’ success: They keep the Wizards off the line, a task they performed horribly in Denver on Thursday night. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that DeShawn Stevenson (a 28.4 percent shooter) takes all seven of his attempts from 18 feet and beyond, Nick Young (69th out of 71 SGs in assist rate) isn’t close on his three heaves, and Caron Butler fires up 13 of his 17 attempts outside the paint (knocking down only 4 of those, and 0-7 on the right side from 18 and beyond). But much of that shot selection we can chalk up to an energized defense that blankets the perimeter. When the Wizards go to their 4 out-1 in scheme (i.e. 3rd, 11:03), the Clippers’ rotation is air tight. There’s a double-team on the ball, with the perimeter defenders ready to move with the pass:

The Clippers’ offense should aspire to score more than a point per possession against a defense as porous as Washington’s, but you know what? Considering Gordon’s absence and the number of bad, 08-09ish shot attempts by Baron and Thornton, it’s not a bad outing by the Clips. One encouraging thing stands out in particular. They turn the ball over only 11 times, which makes absorbing poor shot attempts and missed opportunities on the glass a whole lot easier. Considering the double-teams he confronts most of the day, Kaman puts up an efficient 7-for-10 line from the field (though he coughs up the ball three times), and gets to the stripe for seven free throw attempts.

When Mardy Collins recognizes his strengths (on-ball defense, ball control) and checks his weaknesses (shooting), he can be a useful player in a reserve role. Today he’s a big part of the Clippers’ ability to restore order when the game was teetering on the brink, both in the second and fourth quarters. Whether he can sufficiently hold down the reserve point guard role until Telfair’s return is unknown right now, but the flexibility of using Collins in that capacity and, if necessary, cross-matching him against tougher wings will be a nice luxury to have against deeper teams.

The Clippers continue to be one of the top assist teams in the league, both in assist rate (percentage of possessions ending in an assist) and percentage of field goals assisted. Here are five of the more memorable assists (and a sixth virtual assist that results in two Kaman free throws) from Sunday afternoon:

Eric Gordon Questionable for Tonight

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On January - 21 - 2010

Gordon, who suffered a sprained left big toe last night in the win over Chicago, is listed as questionable for tonight’s game at Denver.

The Clips will be without Sebastian Telfair, who is back in Los Angeles getting treatment on his strained groin.

If neither is able to play, the Clippers would be extremely short-handed in the backcourt, with only Mardy Collins and Ricky Davis available off the bench as perimeter players. Expect Rasual Butler to slide over to the 2, with Al Thornton at the 3 in the starting lineup. In 219 minutes, this unit has not played well together, with a net -31, an offensive efficiency rating of 100, and a defensive efficiency rating in the neighborhood of 108-109.

Collins played well defensively in the Clippers’ win over Denver back in November.

Video Breakdown: The Big 19-0 Run

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On November - 21 - 2009

The Clippers scored 19 unanswered points against Denver over a 4:10 stretch that spanned the first and second quarters. The spurt was fueled largely by the second unit of Sebastian Telfair, Mardy Collins, Rasual Butler, Craig Smith and DeAndre Jordan — along with big contributions from Baron Davis and Chris Kaman on the front end of the run.

Here’s how it went down at Staples Center Friday night:

Clippers 106, Denver 99

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz On November - 21 - 2009

We’ll have a video breakdown of the Clippers’ big first half run for you tomorrow. In the meantime, here’s something I filed for TrueHoop on the Clippers’ big exhale:

If ever there were a team and a head coach in desperate need of a win, the Los Angeles Clippers and Mike Dunleavy were it.

The Clippers had lost five of six games entering Friday night’s game against the Denver Nuggets, all without their most efficient player second-year guard Eric Gordon. Over that stretch, which included a couple of embarrassing blowouts and a gut-wrenching fourth quarter collapse, dark clouds descended over the team. Reports that Dunleavy’s job was in serious jeopardy went public, and the malaise that infected the team last season began to surface.

What better antidote for a team on the ropes than a nationally-televised date against the NBA’s fourth-ranked offense featuring the league’s hottest player, Carmelo Anthony?

The Clippers couldn’t do much to stop Anthony, but they showed Denver a variety of effective looks on defense, and got some timely shooting from their wings and reserve unit. That was enough to hold off Denver 106-99 at Staples Center.

To no one’s surprise — least of all the Clippers — Anthony dominated the game with 37 points (12-for-20 from the field; 12-for-13 from the stripe).

“It’s such a tough matchup with ‘Melo, trying to get anyone to guard him,” Dunleavy said. “So we mixed up our double-teams, our locations, we mixed up the clock with our zone work. We tried to keep him a little off-balanced, but he’s so tough. He makes shots. He’s got that hang time. He draws fouls.”

Al Thornton, who drew the defensive assignment on Anthony for much of the night, was even more emphatic.

“I think he’s the best offensive player in the league, hands down this year,” Thornton said. “He can do everything out there on that court.”

The Clippers countered with a balanced, more fluid attack, racking up 28 assists on the 36 field goals, and earned 36 free throw attempts in the process.

For a team that’s sleepwalked through much of the past two weeks, the Clippers played an intelligent brand of basketball. They got into the bonus early. They worked Al Thornton in the post against a smaller Aaron Afflalo. Rasual Butler, mired in a miserable slump over the losing streak while straining to create shots for himself (not his strong suit), returned to doing what he does best — spot-up shooting. He led the Clips with 27 points, draining four of nine from beyond the arc.

Most of all for a team that occasionally has trouble getting on the same page, the Clippers communicated on the defensive end.

“The guys did a great job of talking,” Mardy Collins, who relieved Thornton on Operation ‘Melo, said. “That allowed us to make good decisions on defense.”

After the game, the Clippers coaching staff was huddled in the assistant coaches’ office studying film, examining the tea leaves, gleaning what they could from a satisfying victory. Whether the Clippers’ win over an elite Western power is enough to reverse the tide remains an uncertainty. Eric Gordon’s strained groin will keep him sidelined for at least a few more games, and rookie Blake Griffin won’t return before December 15.

Those concerns aside, Mike Dunleavy should have his best night of sleep in weeks.

Filling The Role

Posted by D.J. Foster On August - 8 - 2009

Based on the Clippers recent free agent targets, it’s natural to assume that the guard position is the biggest need. After all, the Clippers only have 3 *true* guards on their roster, and all we’ve heard for the last month is an overload of Sessions talk mixed with an occasional A.I. flare up.  The acquiring of a defensive minded wing, for the time being, has apparently drifted out of focus.

Management has done nothing thus far to address the glaring needs on the wing, and Dunleavy appears content with starting Al Thornton again next year. Thornton played the lion’s share of the minutes last year at small forward, so let’s take a look at the Clippers production by position numbers compiled by 82games.com.

Net Production by Position (2008)

Position FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
PG 3.5 -.085 0.5 2% 0.4 -0.0 -0.9 0.3 -0.7 0.8 -2.9
SG -2.2 -.010 -0.2 5% -2.0 -1.0 -0.4 0.2 -0.4 -2.5 -3.8
SF -1.1 -.032 -0.6 -3% -2.4 -1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -2.8 -4.7
PF -0.1 +.000 -1.3 -8% -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.0 0.2 -1.1 -2.3
C -1.4 -.020 -0.8 -2% 0.8 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 0.8 -3.1 -2.6

The first thing that pops out at you is how absolutely atrocious the shot selection of Baron Davis was last year, but you likely didn’t need a chart to come to that conclusion. The next thing that jumps off the page is all the negatives in the small forward column. The Clippers small forwards last year got out rebounded by a margin of 2.4 rebounds per game, and the shooting guards weren’t much better, losing the rebounding battle by 2 rebounds a game. That’s a -4.4 rebounding margin on the wing, which is absolutely awful. Eric Gordon is an expected poor rebounder at 6′3, but Al Thornton has all the physical tools to at least be serviceable. Instead, he’s one of the worst in the league at his position. The Clippers small forwards assist margin was the worst of the 5 positions. The small forwards also got outscored by opponents to the tune of 2.8 points a game, which was the second worst position total on the team. Hollinger’s PER system is less than perfect, but it is telling that the Clippers’ small forwards were 4.7 PER points worse than the opposition, which was by far the lowest total of the 5 positions. Based on these stats, the small forward position was where the Clippers were outmatched most often last season.

Going forward, Gordon will desperately need a good rebounder and defender on the wing next to him to cover up for his lack of size. Al Thornton doesn’t appear to be that guy, as his skills just don’t seem to mesh well with the rest of the young core. If the Clippers are serious about contending this year and in the future, they simply have to upgrade the starting small forward position. Players who are primarily scorers at the small forward position just aren’t on championship caliber teams. Looking back at the NBA Champions of this decade reveals a slew of starting defensive minded small forwards:

Los Angeles Lakers, 2000 – Glen Rice was the starter, but Rick Fox played a valuable defensive role off the bench.

Los Angeles Lakers, 2001 – Rick Fox

Los Angeles Lakers, 2002 – Rick Fox and Devean George

San Antonio Spurs, 2003 – Bruce Bowen

Detroit Pistons, 2004 – Tayshaun Prince

San Antonio Spurs, 2005 – Bruce Bowen

Miami Heat, 2006 – James Posey

San Antonio Spurs, 2007 – Bruce Bowen

Boston Celtics, 2008 - Paul Pierce was the starter, but James Posey played lots of crucial minutes.

Los Angeles Lakers, 2009 – Trevor Ariza

What do all these players have in common? First, they all have the height (6′7 or above) to shut down every type of perimeter player. Second, they can all knock down the corner 3 with consistency. It’s overly simplistic, but that’s basically the requirements of a “glue guy”. Al Thornton, despite his immense talent, currently meets neither of these requirements.

The promising thing for the Clippers is that “glue guys” can be found anywhere. Bruce Bowen bounced around the league and played for 4 different teams before finally landing in San Antonio. James Posey followed the same path as well, playing for 4 different teams before landing in Miami. Devean George was drafted out of a Division III college. Trevor Ariza was acquired last season for Brian freaking Cook.

Some Clippers fans believe that wing player Mardy Collins can fill that defensive role for this team. Collins may be a good enough defender, but he’ll need to develop something that at least resembles a jumper before reaching true “glue guy” status. Witness:

In his nine games as a Los Angeles Clipper, Collins has taken 29 shot attempts from the floor.  Only ten of them have been successful, while 13 of the 29 haven’t drawn iron. -December 15th, 2008.

Mardy Collins, and for that matter, Al Thornton, may eventually develop into prominent defensive stoppers with the ability to stretch the defense, but both clearly have a long way to go.

So where is the next championship level perimeter defender and shooter hiding? He could be anywhere…but the Clippers will never find him unless they start looking.