There isn’t a game on the schedule where Eric Gordon doesn’t come in handy, but against Boston’s ball pressure in the halfcourt, EJ’s absence is especially costly. The Celtics’ defense focuses on cutting off large swaths of the floor with hard traps. The best way to alleviate that pressure? Perimeter spacing, something that can be achieved with a couple of lethal perimeter threats. Without a shooter like Gordon keeping the defense honest, the Celtics’ tighten their vise even further.

Chris Kaman doesn’t get so much as a touch until the fourth possession, as Boston’s big men deny him the simplest entry pass. He knocks down that first touch (1st, 9:45), but not before Perkins pushes him back with that big left hand, forcing Chris into an awkward fall-away. Kaman hits his second attempt as well (1st, 8:13) when Perkins absently blitzes Baron, with no one rotating on Chris.

After that, it’s a tough go. Kaman converts only three of his final 16 attempts and never sees the stripe.

Kendrick Perkins might be best known for his brawn, but he’s very cerebral with that physicality. Perk pushes his defensive assignment off his preferred spot, but more than anything, he wants that man to feel uncomfortable. He wants him to know that what little space he’s afforded comes at a premium and can be taken away without notice. When Baron and Kaman flirt with the pick-and-roll in the first quarter, Perkins dances between Kaman and Rondo, making sure that Chris isn’t able to initiate the action. At the same time, he’s watching for the slip, making sure that Kaman doesn’t pop out to open space for a quick dish and a clean look. When Chris has the ball one-on-one, it’s all pokes and hips from Perkins. Kevin Garnett picks up Kaman in transition (1st, 5:27), and stays in front of him throughout the possession, even after Davis slows it up to look for offense.

The Clippers can’t find much of it all night, and when there are rare opportunities to get easy scores, the Clippers’ shpilkes get the better of them. Desperate to get anything in transition — because nothing is working in the halfcourt — the Clips overthrow an outlet pass on a potential break on four separate occasions. These aren’t instances of random carelessness; they’re the direct result of the Celtics’ defense. For a while, it looks like the Clips might go to that old standby: Baron Davis in the post against a smaller opposing point guard. Tonight, the Celtics are ready and send quick help when Baron begins his assault on Rajon Rondo.

Somehow, despite the poor shooting, the Clippers are able to build a lead in the second quarter and hang around until the bitter end. Again, it’s the second unit led by Mardy Collins, Ricky Davis and Craig Smith that empowers the Clippers. You see it on their first defensive possession of the second quarter (2nd, 11:05). They buzz around the halfcourt, talking to one another and pointing to primary defensive assignments who are being vacated for double-teams. They contest every pass and shot. It certainly helps that Rasheed Wallace takes all the 3-point attempts he can eat and that Boston has not one legitimate passer in their reserve unit, but the Clippers’ activity is unmatched and it ignites a 16-7 run to give the Clippers an eight-point lead (nine was their largest). When the Celtics appear like they might run away with the game in the fourth, the backups come through again. Smith bullies Perkins one-on-one on the offensive end and the unit again communicates well on the defensive end. You see it at (4th, 9:07) when an early, high screen from Wallace yields a mismatch for Rondo in DeAndre Jordan. As Rondo lures DJ out to the perimeter to prepare to carve him off the dribble, Ricky Davis dashes over to help while the rest of the defense rotates. It’s a high-quality brand of basketball from some very improbable sources.

The defining stretch of the game, though, is the outset of the second half, when the Clippers are stifled by the Celtics’ energized halfcourt defense. The Celtics do more than just push the Clippers out. You’ll see Paul Pierce double Kaman off the ball underneath on the weak side (3rd, 11:08). You’ll see the Celtics send Garnett to pick up Chris on a Baron-Kaman screen (3rd, 8:05), with Perkins staying on Baron and Rondo free to rove passing lanes. As the ball works its way over to one side of the floor, the Celtics follow it, strangling the Clippers and inducing flaming bag (3rd, 7:51) after flaming bag (3rd, 7:05) at the shot clock buzzer. Pressure like this can be combated by quick reversals to good shooters, but the Clippers don’t establish any semblance of an outside game until the interminable closing minute when, in desperation, they drain three 3-pointers. Even with the late heroics, it’s never more than a two-possession game.

Though the contest never gets out of the Clippers’ reach, it’s never in their grasp either. Somehow, that 4-to-10 point lead the Celtics nurse most of the second half seems insurmountable.

The Clippers’ exceptional defensive effort Sunday afternoon in Washington features only two blemishes:

• When the Clips run perimeter traps at the Wizards’ guards, the rotations onto Antawn Jamison aren’t prompt. Jamison is one of the best bigs in the league at finding mismatches or open space off blitzes and he burns the Clippers on a few occasions, keeping Washington in the game longer than they rightly should be.
• Chris Kaman grabs one defensive rebound all afternoon. In contrast, Brandon Haywood and Jamison secure seven and four offensive rebounds respectively. In the first half, more than a quarter of the Wizards points come on second chances. The downturn in Kaman’s offensive rebounding numbers can be ascribed to his playing more pick-and-pop basketball, but there’s no good reason a 7-footer guarding the opposing center should come up with a lone defensive board.

Apart from that, the Clippers grind the Wizards down defensively, giving up only 78 points on 92 possessions.

The reserve unit is particularly stingy during its second and fourth quarter stints. The backups pressure Caron Butler with double-teams early in the second, denying Washington a chance to establish any offensive rhythm. In the fourth quarter, with the Clippers hanging on to a three-point lead, there’s a different defensive dynamic on the floor, but the unit led by Mardy Collins produces the same result: It’s an incredible flurry of activity. Collins, Rasual Butler and Al Thornton each records a block shot within a 90-second stretch upon checking in. 30 seconds later, Chris Kaman cuts off a Caron Butler baseline drive and swats away yet another Washington attempt. Though the Wizards waste multiple possessions early in the game taking ill-advised early jumpers, they’re unable to get anything resembling a clean look when the Clippers make their stand late. For a team that’s had a wretched time putting opponents away in the fourth quarter this season, it’s a laudatory performance. By the time Baron Davis re-enters with 4:00 remaining in the game, the Clippers’ lead is back to 10 and never in jeopardy again.

Another factor for the Clippers’ success: They keep the Wizards off the line, a task they performed horribly in Denver on Thursday night. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that DeShawn Stevenson (a 28.4 percent shooter) takes all seven of his attempts from 18 feet and beyond, Nick Young (69th out of 71 SGs in assist rate) isn’t close on his three heaves, and Caron Butler fires up 13 of his 17 attempts outside the paint (knocking down only 4 of those, and 0-7 on the right side from 18 and beyond). But much of that shot selection we can chalk up to an energized defense that blankets the perimeter. When the Wizards go to their 4 out-1 in scheme (i.e. 3rd, 11:03), the Clippers’ rotation is air tight. There’s a double-team on the ball, with the perimeter defenders ready to move with the pass:

The Clippers’ offense should aspire to score more than a point per possession against a defense as porous as Washington’s, but you know what? Considering Gordon’s absence and the number of bad, 08-09ish shot attempts by Baron and Thornton, it’s not a bad outing by the Clips. One encouraging thing stands out in particular. They turn the ball over only 11 times, which makes absorbing poor shot attempts and missed opportunities on the glass a whole lot easier. Considering the double-teams he confronts most of the day, Kaman puts up an efficient 7-for-10 line from the field (though he coughs up the ball three times), and gets to the stripe for seven free throw attempts.

When Mardy Collins recognizes his strengths (on-ball defense, ball control) and checks his weaknesses (shooting), he can be a useful player in a reserve role. Today he’s a big part of the Clippers’ ability to restore order when the game was teetering on the brink, both in the second and fourth quarters. Whether he can sufficiently hold down the reserve point guard role until Telfair’s return is unknown right now, but the flexibility of using Collins in that capacity and, if necessary, cross-matching him against tougher wings will be a nice luxury to have against deeper teams.

The Clippers continue to be one of the top assist teams in the league, both in assist rate (percentage of possessions ending in an assist) and percentage of field goals assisted. Here are five of the more memorable assists (and a sixth virtual assist that results in two Kaman free throws) from Sunday afternoon:

Gordon, who suffered a sprained left big toe last night in the win over Chicago, is listed as questionable for tonight’s game at Denver.

The Clips will be without Sebastian Telfair, who is back in Los Angeles getting treatment on his strained groin.

If neither is able to play, the Clippers would be extremely short-handed in the backcourt, with only Mardy Collins and Ricky Davis available off the bench as perimeter players. Expect Rasual Butler to slide over to the 2, with Al Thornton at the 3 in the starting lineup. In 219 minutes, this unit has not played well together, with a net -31, an offensive efficiency rating of 100, and a defensive efficiency rating in the neighborhood of 108-109.

Collins played well defensively in the Clippers’ win over Denver back in November.

The Clippers scored 19 unanswered points against Denver over a 4:10 stretch that spanned the first and second quarters. The spurt was fueled largely by the second unit of Sebastian Telfair, Mardy Collins, Rasual Butler, Craig Smith and DeAndre Jordan — along with big contributions from Baron Davis and Chris Kaman on the front end of the run.

Here’s how it went down at Staples Center Friday night:

We’ll have a video breakdown of the Clippers’ big first half run for you tomorrow. In the meantime, here’s something I filed for TrueHoop on the Clippers’ big exhale:

If ever there were a team and a head coach in desperate need of a win, the Los Angeles Clippers and Mike Dunleavy were it.

The Clippers had lost five of six games entering Friday night’s game against the Denver Nuggets, all without their most efficient player second-year guard Eric Gordon. Over that stretch, which included a couple of embarrassing blowouts and a gut-wrenching fourth quarter collapse, dark clouds descended over the team. Reports that Dunleavy’s job was in serious jeopardy went public, and the malaise that infected the team last season began to surface.

What better antidote for a team on the ropes than a nationally-televised date against the NBA’s fourth-ranked offense featuring the league’s hottest player, Carmelo Anthony?

The Clippers couldn’t do much to stop Anthony, but they showed Denver a variety of effective looks on defense, and got some timely shooting from their wings and reserve unit. That was enough to hold off Denver 106-99 at Staples Center.

To no one’s surprise — least of all the Clippers — Anthony dominated the game with 37 points (12-for-20 from the field; 12-for-13 from the stripe).

“It’s such a tough matchup with ‘Melo, trying to get anyone to guard him,” Dunleavy said. “So we mixed up our double-teams, our locations, we mixed up the clock with our zone work. We tried to keep him a little off-balanced, but he’s so tough. He makes shots. He’s got that hang time. He draws fouls.”

Al Thornton, who drew the defensive assignment on Anthony for much of the night, was even more emphatic.

“I think he’s the best offensive player in the league, hands down this year,” Thornton said. “He can do everything out there on that court.”

The Clippers countered with a balanced, more fluid attack, racking up 28 assists on the 36 field goals, and earned 36 free throw attempts in the process.

For a team that’s sleepwalked through much of the past two weeks, the Clippers played an intelligent brand of basketball. They got into the bonus early. They worked Al Thornton in the post against a smaller Aaron Afflalo. Rasual Butler, mired in a miserable slump over the losing streak while straining to create shots for himself (not his strong suit), returned to doing what he does best — spot-up shooting. He led the Clips with 27 points, draining four of nine from beyond the arc.

Most of all for a team that occasionally has trouble getting on the same page, the Clippers communicated on the defensive end.

“The guys did a great job of talking,” Mardy Collins, who relieved Thornton on Operation ‘Melo, said. “That allowed us to make good decisions on defense.”

After the game, the Clippers coaching staff was huddled in the assistant coaches’ office studying film, examining the tea leaves, gleaning what they could from a satisfying victory. Whether the Clippers’ win over an elite Western power is enough to reverse the tide remains an uncertainty. Eric Gordon’s strained groin will keep him sidelined for at least a few more games, and rookie Blake Griffin won’t return before December 15.

Those concerns aside, Mike Dunleavy should have his best night of sleep in weeks.

Based on the Clippers recent free agent targets, it’s natural to assume that the guard position is the biggest need. After all, the Clippers only have 3 *true* guards on their roster, and all we’ve heard for the last month is an overload of Sessions talk mixed with an occasional A.I. flare up.  The acquiring of a defensive minded wing, for the time being, has apparently drifted out of focus.

Management has done nothing thus far to address the glaring needs on the wing, and Dunleavy appears content with starting Al Thornton again next year. Thornton played the lion’s share of the minutes last year at small forward, so let’s take a look at the Clippers production by position numbers compiled by 82games.com.

Net Production by Position (2008)

The first thing that pops out at you is how absolutely atrocious the shot selection of Baron Davis was last year, but you likely didn’t need a chart to come to that conclusion. The next thing that jumps off the page is all the negatives in the small forward column. The Clippers small forwards last year got out rebounded by a margin of 2.4 rebounds per game, and the shooting guards weren’t much better, losing the rebounding battle by 2 rebounds a game. That’s a -4.4 rebounding margin on the wing, which is absolutely awful. Eric Gordon is an expected poor rebounder at 6’3, but Al Thornton has all the physical tools to at least be serviceable. Instead, he’s one of the worst in the league at his position. The Clippers small forwards assist margin was the worst of the 5 positions. The small forwards also got outscored by opponents to the tune of 2.8 points a game, which was the second worst position total on the team. Hollinger’s PER system is less than perfect, but it is telling that the Clippers’ small forwards were 4.7 PER points worse than the opposition, which was by far the lowest total of the 5 positions. Based on these stats, the small forward position was where the Clippers were outmatched most often last season.

Going forward, Gordon will desperately need a good rebounder and defender on the wing next to him to cover up for his lack of size. Al Thornton doesn’t appear to be that guy, as his skills just don’t seem to mesh well with the rest of the young core. If the Clippers are serious about contending this year and in the future, they simply have to upgrade the starting small forward position. Players who are primarily scorers at the small forward position just aren’t on championship caliber teams. Looking back at the NBA Champions of this decade reveals a slew of starting defensive minded small forwards:

Los Angeles Lakers, 2000 – Glen Rice was the starter, but Rick Fox played a valuable defensive role off the bench.

Los Angeles Lakers, 2001 – Rick Fox

Los Angeles Lakers, 2002 – Rick Fox and Devean George

San Antonio Spurs, 2003 – Bruce Bowen

Detroit Pistons, 2004 – Tayshaun Prince

San Antonio Spurs, 2005 – Bruce Bowen

Miami Heat, 2006 – James Posey

San Antonio Spurs, 2007 – Bruce Bowen

Boston Celtics, 2008 - Paul Pierce was the starter, but James Posey played lots of crucial minutes.

Los Angeles Lakers, 2009 – Trevor Ariza

What do all these players have in common? First, they all have the height (6’7 or above) to shut down every type of perimeter player. Second, they can all knock down the corner 3 with consistency. It’s overly simplistic, but that’s basically the requirements of a “glue guy”. Al Thornton, despite his immense talent, currently meets neither of these requirements.

The promising thing for the Clippers is that “glue guys” can be found anywhere. Bruce Bowen bounced around the league and played for 4 different teams before finally landing in San Antonio. James Posey followed the same path as well, playing for 4 different teams before landing in Miami. Devean George was drafted out of a Division III college. Trevor Ariza was acquired last season for Brian freaking Cook.

Some Clippers fans believe that wing player Mardy Collins can fill that defensive role for this team. Collins may be a good enough defender, but he’ll need to develop something that at least resembles a jumper before reaching true “glue guy” status. Witness:

In his nine games as a Los Angeles Clipper, Collins has taken 29 shot attempts from the floor.  Only ten of them have been successful, while 13 of the 29 haven’t drawn iron. -December 15th, 2008.

Mardy Collins, and for that matter, Al Thornton, may eventually develop into prominent defensive stoppers with the ability to stretch the defense, but both clearly have a long way to go.

So where is the next championship level perimeter defender and shooter hiding? He could be anywhere…but the Clippers will never find him unless they start looking.

The Clippers currently hold their mid-level exception, as well as a traded player exception worth between $7-8M. Clipperblog spoke to a source inside the Clippers organization who offered the following:

• The Clippers are in no hurry to use their trade exception. They feel that the exception will only increase in value between now and the trade deadline. “If there’s a great value out there this summer, that’s one thing,” said the source. “But there’s a much better chance of our picking up a very good piece down the road closer to the trading deadline, as teams get squeezed by the tax, or fall out of [playoff contention].”
• The team likes the progress Mike Taylor is making, but wants to find a prototypical point guard this offseason to backup Baron Davis, considering Baron’s injury history. “We’re really happy with Mike as a third guy right now,” the source said. “He’s doing all the right things, but it’s not something we’re ready to hang our hat on yet.”
• The Clippers recognize that depth on the perimeter remains their most pressing issue, particularly defensively. They see Mardy Collins as a versatile utility man who does nothing exceptionally, but a lot of different things fairly well. Q is regarded as a guy who can play the 2 or 3, and Ricky Davis as a big question mark because of the tendinitis in his knee. If the Clippers make a splash — an unlikely event — it will probably be at the 3.
• What about the Clippers’ MLE?  The Clippers are putting out feelers, but are cautious. “Everyone has an inflated opinion of their value right now,” the source said, alluding to Shawn Marion’s rejection of a multi-year deal worth $8M/per from Toronto.  The Clippers see the MLE as an opportunity to maneuver within the confines of the cap, but not as an excuse to pay a $3M player almost $6M/per.  “If there’s someone who makes sense and is a value, sure. But right now, the market is unsettled.”

Those guided by superstition have traditionally characterized the Clippers’ misfortunes as preordained — as if management, a willingness to invest, talent evaluation, and coaching had nothing to do with a team’s performance during its first 25 years in Los Angeles. But even hard-boiled empiricists would have to concede this morning that the Clippers have been blessed over the past month and a half. A cursed franchise doesn’t typically defy probability and land the top pick in a one-player draft, or find a willing sucker to take on their most toxic asset a full week before the moratorium when such a trade can be consummated.

The Clippers have gotten lucky. Although diligence is often the mother of good luck, that’s probably untrue in the Clippers’ case. Only by virtue of drawing Blake Griffin on a losing hand, and finding a franchise more desperate and financially beleaguered than them, were the Clippers able to graduate overnight into a team with the opportunity for a bright future. The Clippers’ ability to finesse a new home for Zach Randolph doesn’t absolve the November deal any more than hitting on 18 and pulling a three at the blackjack table makes that blunder excusable. Having said that, luck (there’s that fussy word again) sometimes offers generous reprieves, and the Clippers were certain beneficiaries of those breaks.

I’ve been rough on Zach Randolph, so I’d like to take this opportunity to offer a more rational critique of him as a player. Is Randolph is a bad guy?  I’ve had several conversations with him, but I generally hold the position that a series of locker room encounters tells us precious little about the inner life of athletes. There’s enough evidence to suggest that Randolph has applied lousy judgment throughout his professional life. On the court, he’s a statistical beast, but there’s a body of work that reveals tendencies which aren’t conducive to the formula the NBA demands at this moment for a successful franchise. Randolph was born about a decade too late, and would’ve been much more helpful pre-2001, before the revisions of the hand-checking rules produced a more perimeter-oriented game more hospitable to face-up 4s. His defense would’ve been less of a liability in an era when “taking up space” was a more essentially defensive quality, and Zach certainly does that. But today’s game presents insurmountable problems for Zach. Defensively, he simply can’t defend the collection of athletic 4s who dominate the league. When his man works his way down low, Zach has a horrible habit of bailing out, leaving a basket defender like Marcus Camby as the last line of defense. That’s an excusable tactic for a perimeter defender who’s gotten beat, but power forwards have certain responsibilities down low and, unlike front line defenders, they can’t hide from those.

Offensively, Randolph is a black hole down low. If we’ve seen nothing else since April 18, the ability of bigs to move the ball can’t be overstated. It’s no longer merely a luxury; it’s a prerequisite for longterm success. On Monday, John Krolik of Cavs the Blog composed this pithy axiom: “Simply put, some guys create shots and plays offensively while other guys finish them.” Randolph is undoubtedly a one-on-one finisher — and a pretty good one. But that’s not what the Clippers needed in 2008-09, or or necessitate going forward. They need guys who can create for others. Even Dwight Howard, he of the so-called (and mischaracterized) one-dimensional game, became an effective post-and-kick man for Orlando. Yet, Clippers fans went days without seeing Randolph make a smart pass to set up a shooter.

That’s our final word here on Randolph. Maybe he’s capable of giving the Grizz a jolt in a frontcourt that needs a productive one-on-one scorer. Who knows?

For all of Randolph’s deficiencies, the Clippers probably didn’t improve their 2009-10 win total yesterday, but they opened up space for Blake Griffin — obviously — and also for DeAndre Jordan. Watching Jordan workout and talking with talent evaluators and Clippers assistants, I’m becoming increasingly bullish on Jordan’s capacity to log quality NBA minutes at center. If he continues to refine his game, Jordan has a real chance to become a Chris Andersen-type shot-blocking energy big man who can collect garbage off the offensive glass, finish on the break, put up a gaudy FG%, and rebound like a fiend. Assuming that Kaman and Camby miss a collective 40 games this season — and that’s not an unreasonable assumption — Jordan will have the chance to hone his skills.  That’s important, because it’s very likely Jordan will be an essential part of a Clippers frontcourt that, crowded as it’s been the past year or so, will soon thin out.

The wings? Still a concern. According to sources, the Clippers’ brass is gradually coming around to the idea that Al Thornton might be best utilized off the bench. Unfortunately, their only other options at the SF right now are Mardy Collins and Quentin Richardson — they of the combined 21.16 PER, plantar fasciitis, and a sore back. With the Richardson deal, the Clippers will be just barely under the cap, though they acquired a $7.3M trade exception. Although the Clips have been mentioned as a possible destination for Trevor Ariza — and wouldn’t that be glorious — they can offer him only the MLE (barring an improbably sign & trade with the $7.3M exception), which puts them in the boat with everyone else. Maybe Ariza, as a local product, would be receptive to moving across the hall at a discount, but it’s more likely he’ll land where he can either [a] get more cash (i.e. Toronto), or [b] contend for a ring (i.e. Cleveland).

To those dreaming of the promised land in 2009-10, it’s vital to exercise patience. The Clippers are still a year away from adding the personnel that can elevate them from curiosity to contender. But for the first time since the summer of 2006, the sun is out across the Nación this morning. Overnight, the Clippers became a younger, more likeable, more watchable, nimbler group. The effect on Baron Davis should be a positive one, and they can begin to sculpt an offense around a potentially devastating big-small/inside-outside combo in Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon.

When the season is over, the Clips will have nearly $20M available to them in free agency depending on the cap number. They’ll be able to compete for the 6-7 Joe Johnson, who would make a sensible wingmate for Eric Gordon. They could throw some shekels at the restricted Thabo Sefolosha, who would be a stellar addition for a team in need of facilitators and defenders. The Clippers will also have the flexibility to execute a sign and trade if there are contracted players on other rosters they covet (though the Clippers’ assets will be limited unless there are Al Thornton fans out there). Whatever they decide to do a year from now, the Clippers now have one of the most valuable assets a team with a promising young core can have: the means and flexibility to add complementary pieces.

Watching the postseason over the past couple of weeks has offered a reminder that the NBA, at its essence, is a game of exploiting mismatches in the halfcourt. Good teams do this effectively when their offenses are humming.  The standout defensive teams? They’re the ones who can recover from, compensate for, or avoid those mismatches altogether. They also have the capacity to withstand a defensive switch because they have smalls who can hold their own against bigs, and vice versa.

Among the Clippers’ many flaws, their ineffectiveness both offensively and defensively in this regard makes them a vulnerable team every night, no matter how much talent we perceive there to be on the court. When you watch how good Cleveland, Orlando, and Houston are at recovering defensively off the opponent’s action, it’s no wonder they’re playing basketball well into May. Orlando did incredible work on Boston’s flurry of picks and rolls Tuesday Monday night, and I haven’t seen the Cavs blow a defensive rotation in weeks. Some of their guys get beat off the dribble, but on screens — both on the off the ball — the Cavs choreograph defensive ballet.

The Clippers’ position defense poses problems from outset. Al Thornton and Zach Randolph are poor straight-up defenders, though Al has demonstrated that in simple isolation situations, he’s passable. Baron Davis, either because he’s gotten slower, stopped caring, or isn’t 1oo percent, is no better than average at the point, unless he recommits himself to on-ball defense. Though Marcus Camby excels as a team defender, he’s ineffective against both perimeter-oriented centers like Mehmet Okur, and isn’t a stalwart post defender one-on-one. Eric Gordon is undersized, which doesn’t hurt him every night, but creates problems against sharpshooting 2 guards. Chris Kaman, when healthy, has become a very serviceable defender down low, but not exactly Buck Williams or Hakeem.

Position defense is the foundation of team defense, but isolations represent only a fraction of halfcourt possessions.  Where quality teams pick apart defenses is on pick-and-roll action. I had a chance to spend some time with Rockets’ assistant Elston Turner on Monday night discussing how Houston’s defensive machine works. Turner cited “defensive flexibility” as one of the primary assets to Houston’s defense. Sure, Houston has outstanding individual defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier, along with Yao Ming protecting the basket, but dynamic offensive players are still going to beat those guys several times a night. What Turner likes about his squad is that, if need be, Artest can switch onto a 1,2,3, or 4. Battier can guard the ball and has the ability and instincts to rotate to the weak side on reversals. Turner even had the chutzpah to put Luis Scola on Trevor Ariza for significant stretches Monday night because he knew that, at any point, there was a defender who could rotate over to help out Scola. Because Houston features that defensive flexibility, chances are that rotation wouldn’t cost them. This dynamic allowed Houston to assign Artest to Gasol at the pinch post, where so much of the Lakers’ offense is initiated.  Artest could make a quick choice off that pinch post action: Does he stay on Gasol, or pick up the guy getting the handoff or pass? Either way, Houston wouldn’t be compromised all that much defensively.

What about the Clippers? Do they have guys who can defend multiple positions?  Eric Gordon can cover either guard, but how often do you see a 1-2 screen-roll in the NBA? Only when Mike Bibby is on the floor. Against less potent 3s, Mike Dunleavy isn’t entirely uncomfortable letting Baron try his hand on a switch, which I don’t have a big problem with.  To Dunleavy’s credit, he recognizes the team’s defensive limitations, and tries to keep them out of switch situations as much as possible.

The 2005-06 squad was masterful at making lemonade out of lemons in frenetic halfcourt possessions, and showed-and-recovered as well as any team in the West that season, save San Antonio. Cuttino Mobley, Elton Brand, and Quinton Ross were a big part of that — and Sam Cassell, challenged as he was, was heady enough to funnel the guys who beat him to the right spots. Unfortunately, this current Clippers defense doesn’t have the will or alacrity to do what’s necessary to avoid mismatches. They’re too slow [Baron, Randolph], too oblivious [Thornton], too unwilling [Camby], or still learning the intricacies of NBA defense [Gordon].

There’s a reason the Clippers haven’t beaten Utah in an eternity, got mauled against Denver post-Chauncey, and even lost that Toronto game by 70 points six weeks ago.  They simply can’t withstand teams that force mismatches as their primary offensive strategy.  I also think it’s not a coincidence they beat Boston when Fred Jones and Mardy Collins combined for 70 minutes.  Those two guys offer the Clippers Turner’s defensive flexibility, something the Clippers desperately needed that night against Boston’s rotating pick-and-roll schemes. It’s just too bad that Jones and Collins are woefully inefficient offensive players.

Offensively, the Clippers are pretty lousy at exploiting mismatches with a few exceptions. Zach Randolph’s offensive instincts are solid in this area and it’s one of the things that makes him a strong offensive contributor. On a nightly basis, we saw him put the ball on the deck against slower 4s, and muscle inside against weaker post defenders, whether they were his assigned defender, or a player he picked up on the switch. Baron used to make mincemeat off 1-3 through 1-5 pick-and-rolls back in his Golden State days, but he was extremely tentative in 08-09 when big men were in front of him, opting to fire a contested jumper rather than blowing past the big. I don’t ascribe that to laziness. He expressed an earnest concern in conversation in January that he’d lost some explosiveness and didn’t feel like he could get to the rim like he used to. Whatever the case, it’s a monumental problem for the Clippers the next four years if their point guard can’t take advantage of a small-big mismatch. In an increasingly PG-driven league, that’s most teams’ most powerful weapon. Without it, you simply can’t run an efficient offense.

Given Baron’s limitations, it’s vital that more S/R action be initiated for Eric Gordon, and that Gordon continue to improve his ability to take full advantage of the space afforded him off those screens. Kaman’s return to full health will help Eric, because Chris is far and away the Clippers’ best pick man up top.  That said, Chris still has room to improve his finesse on those screens in order to draw the mismatch for his guard — and for himself, too!  Did you notice in the Chicago series how good Joakim Noah is at running interference on a simple brush screen, thereby getting Derrick Rose an opposing big man to penetrate against?  You might not think of Dirk Nowitzki as a great screener, but watch how often Jason Terry ends up with a hulking big in front of him [and, in turn, how Dirk draws a small as his defender]. Other masters: Tim Duncan, Kendrick Perkins [though he's never set a legal screen in his life...still...it ain't illegal if they don't catch you], Udonis Haslem, Kurt Thomas, Lamar Odom.

Zach Randolph? Not on that list.

The Clippers finished 30th in offensive efficiency, and 26th in defensive efficiency last season. If they have any hopes of improving, they’ll need new personnel who can provide the sort of flexibility that will enable them to defend sound offensive teams, and an offense that’s more persistent at finding mismatches for its talent. They’ll also need their existing players to better recognize mismatches, something their small forward doesn’t do effectively.  Even more important, their point guard must rehabilitate physically to the point where he can penetrate, which is the single most productive way to scramble a defense, and force it into bad rotations which often result in mismatches.

This is an exciting time for those trying to find new and compelling ways to understand basketball through analytical means.  The sphere of advanced statistical analytics is experiencing a golden era, and I was fortunate enough to be at ground zero this past weekend — the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  Some of the smartest people in the NBA world gathered in Cambridge to exchange ideas and pose larger questions about what we can — and in some cases, can’t — learn about the pro game from advanced data.

One of the things that continues to challenge people who work with this information is how to integrate individual data into a team game.  If you’re a fan who grew up on Bill James Baseball Abstracts, then you have a fair understanding that baseball, at its essence, is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, which makes it much easier to illuminate many of these questions.  You can rationally measure how many runs a lineup with nine Dustin Pedroias would generate in 162 games vs. a lineup of nine Hanley Ramirezes, but basketball is a much tougher proposition.  You could, theoretically, compare the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of a team composed of five Chris Pauls vs. a team of five Yao Mings — and we have smart guys like Kevin Pelton on the case — but it wouldn’t produce results that are terribly useful in comparing the two players’ relative values.  That’s because a direct statistical contrast between two individuals is a much trickier exercise in basketball.

Aside from determining how certain players are undervalued, what are some of the practical utilities for all this cool new data?  One answer I heard repeatedly from the panelists and in conversations is applying this information to measure the performance of 5-man units.  A couple of different stat guys told me that, for one, information about 5-man units can be imparted to coaches in a palatable way.  An ornery coach might not want to hear from some data-cruncher that he needs to run fewer isolations sets for Player A out on the wing, but that same coach will likely be much more receptive to a few simple numbers that show he’s got a 5-man unit that’s killing the competition.

The Clippers are a tough nut to crack on a lot of this stuff because they haven’t been able to run consistent lineups out on the floor.  The Clips have exactly one 5-man unit that’s shared the floor for more than 116 minutes this season: Baron-Gordon-Thornton-Randolph-Camby.  That unit is a shade below average, with an adjusted +/- of -0.15, and an overall rating per 100 possessions of -2.17, which is a bit crummier.

Among the Clippers’ 5-man units that have played together for a measurable number of minutes, the best is Baron-Gordon-Collins-Randolph-Camby.  In 84 possessions [about 46 minutes of basketball], this unit has outscored its opponents 98-72. Keep in mind that the standard error in such a small sample is pretty massive (Aaron Barzilai will tell you as much), and the majority of these data come from two games — the recent win over Boston and the December 12 Portland game.   That being the case, these results support the notion that if you swap out Al Thornton for Mardy Collins on the wing, you get a substantially more efficient performance.

Naturally, the Clippers can’t capitalize on this information right now even if they wanted to, because Marcus Camby is suffering from head fluid, which sounds really unpleasant.  But in thinking about how the Clippers might want to deal with LeBron James tonight, it’s hard to imagine throwing Al Thornton out there to guard him.  I’m no fan of Mardy Collins’ inefficient offensive game. He displays a horrible habit of  amplifying those inefficiencies by attempting far too many shots, a condition his coach needs to manage more vigilantly.  That aside, the data show that on both an individual and team basis, Collins is considerably more useful than Al Thornton, who is the team’s least efficient regular, when placed alongside the Clippers’ other three primary scorers — Randolph, Gordon, and Baron Davis.

In some respects, this conversation evokes the debates of 2005-2006, when Corey Maggette and Quinton Ross were competing for playing time at the small forward position.  Maggette was by every metric the more prolific offensive player, but there was enough data to suggest that the team played a more efficient game defensively when Ross was the SF alongside Cassell-Mobley-Brand-Kaman.  The truth was that both Ross and Maggette had glaring deficiencies, but the ensuing discussion was one of the more interesting of its day for Clippers fans, with reasonable arguments on both sides.

Obviously, Thornton’s starting role hasn’t really been challenged by Collins, but in thinking about LeBron tonight…shouldn’t it be?  If you had told me on Christmas Day that the matter of Collins v. Thornton would ever be a topic of earnest consideration, I would’ve eaten my hat, but among the dastardly number of issues that the Clippers are dealing with, the Al Thornton question stands out prominently.  While I don’t support Al’s public humiliation by a tactless owner going off half-cocked, his role on the team needs to be examined more closely, particularly on a night when his team requires someone at the 3 who has some degree of defensive intuition. Again, Mardy Collins is not the long-term solution for the Clippers at the 3 — far from it — but most nights, he’s the better of two undesirable options.