
(Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
Thursday and Saturday’s games saw the Clippers build, lose and then regain sizable leads against the Suns and the Lakers respectively. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin led the way in both games posting impressive numbers and the Clips offense as a whole has looked strong in the three games following last Sunday’s dispiriting loss to the Kings. That said, the defense has remained bad and has been on a progressive slide downward since the halcyon days of November and December.
The bench, which surprised early on with its apparent defensive fortitude, has reverted back to reflect the collective defensive talent level of Raymond Felton, Austin Rivers, Paul Pierce, Jamal Crawford and Marreese Speights. What is more worrying, however, is the poor defense the starting unit has been playing since becoming fully healthy again. Before Griffin and Paul went down, the Clippers starting unit was giving up 95.3 points per 100 possession in 447 minutes of play. Since their return, the starters have a defensive rating of 107.1, good for 22nd in the league.
After digging into the numbers, the biggest difference with the starters before and after the injuries has been their pace of play. The Clippers have been playing slower over the last couple months but are giving up more shots to opponents per 100 possessions. Teams are shooting 3.4 more threes a game at a 40 percent clip against the starting lineup since Paul’s return in late February.
Giving up a sizable amount of three pointers is a staple of most bad defenses and would likely spell doom for the Clippers sometime early on in the postseason. After combing through several recent defensive possessions I’ve found that while a lot of this slippage can be chalked up to inattentiveness, there are some underlying cracks in the Clipper’s scheme that may prove worrying down the line.
Roll mouse over gifs to play
On a string
This clip is from a December 1 game versus the Cavs when the Clipper’s starters were at the peak of their powers. In this play Blake traps Kyrie Irving following a Love pick and pop. De’Andre Jordan reacts quickly, rotating over to prevent the Love three pointer while J.J. Redick slides down to defend the potential lob to Jordan’s man in the paint. Blake then sprints back to Thompson so Redick can rotate back to J.R. Smith in time to contest a tough three pointer.
This entire sequence requires precise timing and implicit trust in one’s teammates to help the helper. Blake, Jordan and Redick all rotate off their assignment knowing the help will be there. That confidence is crucial in a league where a half second hesitation can lead to an easy bucket for the other team.
Bad defensive spacing
This play from Wednesday’s bout against the Wizards helps to illustrate where and how that trust has been lost. Following a Bradley Beal-Marcin Gortat side pick and roll, Griffin ventures too far into the paint as the help defender in order to defend the lob to Gortat as Jordan attempts to corral Beal. Otto Porter wisely cuts to the basket to take Redick away from the weak side corner where Markieff Morris is open for a three.
Plays like this are what makes defending good offensive teams like Washington so difficult but the Clippers bigs did not help matters with where they decided to place themselves in relation to each other. While Redick and Paul are positioned to collapse into the paint or dart back to their man if needed, Griffin is almost completely in the restricted area because Jordan didn’t drop back into the paint.
Similarly, in a play during Saturday’s game against the Lakers, Griffin abandons Julius Randle at the top of the key to double David Nwaba on a post up. This is doubly egregious given how well positioned Speights is to already provide help in the paint. While Randle isn’t a knock down three point shooter (29 percent), Griffin’s gamble turned a possession going nowhere for the Lakers into a wide open three pointer at the top of the key.
Griffin has freelanced on defense often since returning, helping at the wrong times off the wrong players, and these lapses have led to many big games for stretchy fours playing the Clippers.
Mental lapses
This isn’t all on Blake Griffin, however. Paul, a stout individual defender and the captain of many good defensive units, has often been caught passively watching the play develop around him. This is symptomatic of a team just trying to get to the playoffs as quickly as possible and hopefully will be an easy fix once the Clippers decide to lock in.
However, as you can see in the second clip, Paul obviously expected Griffin to follow Morris to the corner instead of switching onto Gortat and both players ended up guarding nobody.
DAJ switching onto shooters
A common thread through all these clips is the player defending the ball handler in the pick and roll (Luc Mbah a Moute in most cases) getting beaten off the screen. In this play during last week’s game against the Suns, Jordan gets switched onto Devin Booker and immediately steps backward, giving him ample space for a three. While Luc and Paul are both plus perimeter defenders, the ball handlers the Clippers will see in the postseason make switches like this one an inevitability. Jordan has always been uncomfortable switching that far out but he has to know better than to backpedal against a shooter like Booker.
Overall, the Clipper’s starting unit is rounding back into form. While the defense has taken a step back, the offense remains blistering as the starters are scoring 118 points per 100 possessions since the all star break. This lineup is more than capable of also playing elite defense for extended stretches, it just remains to be seen if they can get on the same page again in time to show it.
The playoff spots in the West are mostly decided. Home court between the Clippers and Jazz is still up in the air, but that’s about it. It’s interesting to me how things changed very little from early on the season. The Clippers dropped after their hot start. Utah improved. Portland faded for awhile but came back to again probably to take the 8 spot, where they were early on, though Denver still has a shot..
Before the season started I was curious how Houston would do with their new coach running his offense around Hardin. That turned out well.
Utah was a surprise to me but not to others here who had predicted it. Memphis was a surprise to me in the negative but they still made the playoffs and could give San Antonio a tough series. I was expecting more from Dallas.
But in the overall, the season in the West played out pretty much like it seemed it would after the teams made their off season transactions, including the Clippers middle of the pack, somewhat mediocre finish.
Excellent breakdown of when the Clippers were at the top of their defensive prowess and their current state. Hopefully they can return to that type of effort during the playoffs.
I’m ready for the playoffs to start. This last two or three weeks have been boring, mainly because so many teams are throwing so many games to get lottery position and also so many teams are resting so many players. The overall level of competition has been in the tank, and won loss records over the last two or three weeks mean next to nothing..
It’s a little bit interesting about the Clippers trying to overtake Utah for home court, which they may do since Utah has a back to back coming up. It’s maybe even a little interesting to see if Denver will catch Portland, which is doubtful. But that’s it.
I learned an interesting thing yesterday. Boston gets Brooklyn’s #1 pick this year because of the deal that sent Pierce Boston to Brooklyn. That will make Boston even better.
It’s not going to surprise me if Griffin signs with Boston in the off-season.
The good thing about the last few games is that both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have, for the most part, looked very good. So if that keeps up the Clippers have a good shot at a good run in the playoffs.
Yeah, they have a shot to beat Utah, but it’s really up to Utah. If you look at it Utah strength’s are against the Clipper’s weakness. Exum is hard to guard, Hayward at SF and Gobert is good against DeAndre who’s usually going against smaller or less athletic centers.
I don’t think they’d want to stick JJ on Exum, so do they take him out of the game and put A Rivers on him?
Then someone will have to guard Hayward who is a big SF.
That’s a good breakdown. I agree it could be a tough series but I’m expecting Paul and Griffin in particular to play exceptionally well. It’ll be an interesting one.
Should the Clips close out with wins vs. Houston and Sac-town, plus sweep Utah, we’ll enter the 2nd round winning 15 of the last 17 games, which would be hotter than when we started the season 14-2, before Jerry-world.
Well, on paper, yes. But the quality of play over the last three weeks or so, with all the teams resting players and throwing games to get the second worst record etc. and many of those teams have lost to the Clippers in that stretch, hasn’t been the same as the first 16 games at all.
It’s really hard for me to tell how the Clippers are playing right now, except for Griffin and Paul who are mostly playing very well. I keep hanging my hat on that. We’ll see soon enough how it actually plays out.
And I really don’t thing the Clippers will sweep Utah. But, yes, then it would be something special if they did.
Is the defense back? 96 points was Houston’s lowest point total this entire season. We did spank San Antonio again, during this stretch, and they weren’t resting players. The 2 losses were by 2 points, and 1 pt, so regardless, the Clippers have been in every game. Its actually good that they lost those games, because you don’t want the burden of a streak going into the the playoffs. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin should always be the temperature gauge for this team, and I think they’re quietly at a fever pitch!
Houston is playing not to get injured, I doubt they’re going to run the ball much now.
The Clippers are winning a bunch of games from mid March and mid April.
This seems familiar. Oh, that’s right, it happens every single year. Here’s how the Clippers have finished the Regular Season during the CP/BG era.
10-2 (right now)
10-2
14-1
17-5
10-3 (7 straight to end the season)
14-5
And every year the Clippers either lost in the 1st round or were taken to 7 games in the 1st round. Late season momentum means nothing in the Chris Paul era.
I’m not trying to be negative. I’m just pointing out the obvious pattern.
There’s nothing different about year 6 of the Chris Paul era. At some point the people who run the franchise will figure this out and change something.
This is the best Jamal has shot the ball going into the playoffs as a Clipper. We’ll see if it translates. Jamal has been abysmal in the playoffs.
The fact that the Clippers rely on Jamal to be their 3rd option during the playoffs and their 2nd option during the 4th quarter of playoff games is one of the main reasons they fail so spectacularly in the playoffs.
I’ve listed on this site time and time again that Jamal actually leads the Clippers in shots per 36 minutes in the playoffs. And people wonder why the Clippers lose in the playoffs?
Either Jamal starts making his WIDE OPEN shots or he needs to sit. Doc needs to treat Jamal like he’s Mo Speights. If Jamal ends up leading the team in shots per 36 the Clippers are going to play horrendous basketball again.
And, yes, shots per 36 matter when Jamal is on the floor during the entire 4th quarter of playoff games taking shots away from Blake, Chris, and JJ.
Jamal getting shots up when Blake, Chris, and JJ are off the floor is one thing. But we all know how many crucial 4th quarter possessions end in Jamal Crawford jumpers.
If I were coaching the Jazz I’d start Joe Johnson alongside Gordon Hayward.
The weak link for the Clippers is size on the perimeter. Starting Johnson forces either Redick or Paul to guard Johnson on the block. We’ve seen Joe Johnson dominate those matchups in the past. The Jazz will scheme for JJ’s floppy action by completely ignoring Luc on the offensive end like he was Tony Allen.
I’d have Rodney Hood, Dante Exum, and Alec Burks take turns attacking Jamal Crawford when the benches are on the floor.
The Clippers have nobody on their bench to guard Boris Diaw. The only thing the Clippers can hope for is Boris Diaw to play old and fat. Wes Johnson doesn’t have the basketball I.Q. to defend a player as smart as Diaw.
If the Jazz are going to beat the Clippers they need to use their size. The Jazz have matchup advantages if they exploit them. The Clippers (still) have a 4 man team. The Jazz can win with their depth and their size.
Place your bets.
In what game does Chris Paul suffer his annual playoff injury? And what will he injure?
My money is on a groin injury chasing a loose ball during Game 2 or Game 3.
I think there’s also a good chance Blake gets injured during this playoff run.
My money would be on a back injury for Blake.
Again, I’m not being negative. I’m being a realist.
After watching the same exact thing for 6 straight years it’s easy to guess what happens next.
Blake and CP have already had their injury/downtime for this season, so they should be good. Last year if memory serves, Blake never fully recovered, and CP logged too many CP3 minutes, where he was CP3, instead of Chris Paul, meaning, CP3 carried the team, something he can do, but usually ends up getting hurt doing in the process which we saw again this season. When healthy together, they both usually can log about 40 to 50 games before health becomes an issue, so my guess is, they’ll make it through these next 18 to 23 games, and get these 16 wins we’ve been waiting for, a championship, and statues for both players outside the new arena in Inglewood whenever that happens. Just a little positive spin for the Guest negativity, from PR!
Chris Paul has gotten injured in the playoffs every single year he’s been a Clipper.
It didn’t matter how many games or how many minutes he played in the regular season before those injuries.
I’m not being negative. I’m being a realist. The sad truth is Chris Paul and Blake Griffin aren’t physically capable of playing 2 months worth of playoff basketball. Their bodies break down.
And absolutely nothing from the past month tells me or tells you that Chris and Blake are physically capable of winning 16 hard fought playoff games.
I’m not blaming Chris or Blake.
The Clippers have 4 reliable players. And two of those players are DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick.
So, you tell me. Can you win 16 playoff games with DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick being your 3rd and 4th best players?
Can you win 16 playoff games with Jamal Crawford leading the team in 4th quarter minutes and 4th quarter shots?
The Clippers have the same exact problem they had 6 years ago. It’s the roster. It’s always been the roster.
Bill Simmons put Austin Rivers on his All Defense 2nd team.
The trolls on here must be so confused. They love to quote Simmons.
I’m more than ready for the playoffs to start. The last three weeks or so of the season have been blah.
I can’t tell if the Clippers are playing well are not. Now that the playoffs are starting, we’ll find out.
Nothing will surprise me, but for the most part I’m expecting Griffin and Paul to be excellent, while everybody else on the team will show their serious limitations. If Griffin and Paul are especially good, they could lead the Clippers farther into the playoffs than most people expect. That’s been my basic thinking all season, and that’s the way things still look to be.
I can’t wait for the return of Austin Rivers. Luc and Austin give the Clippers that perimeter defense we’ll be needing in the 2nd round. As far as history always repeating itself in sports according to Guest, I guess the proud faithful at Indiana State are making their plans for the Final Four. One wait, there’s only 1 Larry Bird. The Clippers only need 1 magical run, like Al Michaels said, “do you believe in miracles?” YES! Its why we’re fans, because we believe! Here’s to believing Blake and CP will play more than the 2 games Guest is betting on, and can I get a “come-on man!” Shout out to Clips4, Clippsy-Hussle, Bongstadomis, DeMote Deandre, Boy-360, and all the old-school Clipperblog-sters who still run this! Jake, I was convinced you were DeMote, but props to you, your tone speaks of Clipper-fandom.
Why are you talking about the 2nd round?
Utah had a season full of injuries and finished with the same record as the Clippers.
The Clippers have never advanced past the 1st round without going to a Game 7.
The CP3 era Clippers have lost at least 1 home playoff game in every series they’ve played.
The best hope for the Clippers is the fact that the Jazz are banged up. And that the Clippers have owned them the last few years.
The Clippers have to hope that translates like in the series against the Nuggets.
But, like I said, this is year 6 of the CP3 era. The Clippers have lost at least 1 home game every year and have needed a Game 7 to advance.
Like the Clippers had no injuries this season? Too funny.
Yes, they were both injured and ended up with the same record.
If they were both healthy they would have finished with very similar records.
I don’t think you understand how many injuries the Jazz have had this year. And how many injuries they’re still dealing with.
Utah has a fully healthy roster currently, Clippers minus Rivers, so, come again?
You’re right.
The Clippers can use the Austin Rivers excuse if they lose in the 1st round.
Again, guys can be fighting an injury and still play in games. Blake hasn’t been 100% since mid November.
I’m not saying Chris will miss playoff games. I’m saying Chris will get injured like he does every single year.
Chris injured his hamstring in Game 1 against Golden State and didn’t miss a game but dragged his leg around all playoffs long.
Back in ’79, Indiana State entered the NCAA tournament having never qualified before and advanced through the field to the championship game before some guy named Magic claimed the title. Not sure if Indiana State has qualified for the tourney since then, maybe once. History in sports doesn’t always repeat itself. So what if Clippers haven’t advanced without going 7? It takes just one magical run, you gotta believe this is the year.
The NBA isn’t college basketball.
In fact, the NBA is the professional sport with the least amount of upsets in the playoffs. Thousands of articles have been written about this fact.
The Mavericks won in 2011 because they changed the foundation of their team. They became a defensive team with a roster full of gritty players.
Dirk became the best offensive player in the world for 2 months but that wouldn’t have meant shit if it wasn’t for the rest of the roster playing their roles to perfection.
The Clippers aren’t going to become the 2011 Mavericks because they don’t have the roster. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin could each average a triple double and they’d still not win 16 playoff games.
It’s the roster. It’s always been the roster. This is the 6th year of this shit. How haven’t you figured it out yet?
DeAndre Jordan, 32 year old J.J. Redick, and 37 year old Jamal Crawford are the 3rd, 4th, and 5th best players on the roster.
How the f**k are you going to win an NBA championship with limited players like DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, and Jamal Crawford as your 3rd, 4th, and 5th best players?
If they were your 5th, 6th, and 7th best players? Maybe.
Andre Iguodala is the 5th best player on the Warriors.
The Clippers have the oldest roster in the NBA. The Clippers have one of the shortest rosters in the NBA. The Clippers have one of the most limited rosters in the NBA.
And they’re somehow going to win 16 playoff games? Are the 3 best players on every other team going to get injured?
We all know the Clippers won’t be playing basketball on May 15th.
I want them to lose in a way that will lead to change. The franchise needs to change. The roster needs to change.
Six years later and they still haven’t incorporated Blake and DJ pick and roll into the offense. They deserve their failure.
The Warriors have been running pick and roll with Draymond Green as the ball handler for 3 f**king years now.
But who wants the ball in Blake’s hands coming off a pick with DJ rolling to the rim and with Chris Paul and J.J. Redick waiting to shoot the 3?
They deserve their failure.
The ’99 Knicks were 8th seed in the East and made it to the NBA Finals, losing to the Spurs. The ’95 6th seeded Rockets won the NBA title. So, come again? Clippers, you gotta believe!!!
The Rockets were the defending Champs that year and they slept through the regular season.
The Shaq era Lakers were notorious for sleeping through the regular season and turning it on in the playoffs.
1999 was a 50 game lockout year. A lot of guys showed up out of shape that year. And the East was terrible post Jordan.
Bottom line, just because Blake and Chris got hurt in years past doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed that they’ll get hurt this year. To bet that they will is negative. Just because the Clippers are a 4 seed doesn’t mean they can’t fight their way through to the Finals, to think that they won’t is negative. Just because the Clippers haven’t made it out of the 2nd round is no guarantee that they won’t this year, and to say that they won’t is a negative shot at the Clippers, it certainly can not be viewed as a positive statement, so Guest, accept who you are, a negative Clipper fan who makes bets on how fast the star players will get hurt. That shoe fits so wear it, you negative Clipper fan you! Stop saying you are not negative, when all of your posts speak of nothing but negativity. Stop!
The best predictor of the future is the past.
It’s not random when a guy gets hurt at the same time of the year for 5 straight years. It may have to do with the increased level of intensity and physicality.
Chris Paul pounding the ball into the floor for 22 seconds of the shot clock every 4th quarter in the playoffs is a far bigger issue than a pulled hamstring or a sprained thumb.
There’s a reason Chris Paul’s teams are 31-42 in the playoffs.
It’s funny. Doc wants his team to play fast and get out on the break but he put together the oldest roster in the NBA. Smart.
And just like the rest of their season the Jazz are injured again.
Midway through the 2nd quarter and Staples still isn’t full.
The crowd and the Clippers are treating this game like it’s a Saturday in January.
The Clippers sure look like a team about to win 16 playoff games, don’t they?
Wow, injury with 17 seconds in. Lucky break for the Clippers, I really wanted to see the center match up.
These ESPN announcers are perplexed by Chris Paul being passive in the 1st half.
Have these guys ever watched Chris Paul play basketball before?
This game looks like hundreds of other Clipper games from the past 6 years.
No additional strategy. No additional passion.
After a big first half Blake Griffin disappears in the 2nd half due to fatigue.
Where have I seen that before? Oh, that’s right, I’ve been watching it for years.
Yes, Blake’s balls shrink in the 4th quarter but his biggest issue is physical.
Blake isn’t close to being 100% healthy. He hasn’t been close to healthy since the Bulls game in November.
He can put up big numbers because of his skill level. He put up 27 points the game before he had surgery.
By the way, did the Clippers run any Blake and DJ pick and roll? Nope. Not even with Gobert out. Why try something different when you’re 5 time defending champions?
Same shit every year.
Utah deserved to win. And the Clippers deserve every bit of their failure.
Even if the Clippers eventually win this series they aren’t coming close to winning 16 playoff games.
Good thing the Clippers are so small on the perimeter.
Not like size matters on defense or anything. It’s not like I’ve been talking about this shit for the past 6 years or anything.
No structural damage to Gobert’s knee. Maybe he’ll be back?
Clippers still have a shot to win if Gobert is out. A. Rivers would help instead of having Crawford out there. But still not a good match up, like said below, there’s a size problem on defense.
BG never really seems to be in the right spot on defense to make a difference.
Oh yeah, last shot was against Crawford. Why is he even out there? Announcers keep saying how Luke is the Gordon Hayward stopper. You have CP3, Griffin and JJ, what use is Crawford? You want the other 3 taking the shots in the last minute
What a great crowd for a home playoff game, right? Showing up late and cheering with the passion of narcoleptics. I wonder if fans in Seattle would act that way?
Well, at least Steve Ballmer was flopping around like a drunk with an inner ear infection.
Don’t change a thing, guys. You’re 5 time defending champions for a reason. And you’re about to be 6 time champs. Dynasty!!!